World Economy Shocked By Biden's Word "Worst Case..." [Y Record]

■ Host: Anchor Cho Jin-hyuk
■ Starring: Lee In-cheol, Director of Economic Research Institute,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

◇Anchor> Let's talk about oil prices first. Oil prices are fluctuating as concerns over an all-out war between Israel and Iran grow, how much has it risen now?

◆Lee In-cheol> International oil prices have been on the rise for three consecutive days since the Middle East risk surfaced. The first day rose more than 2%, the second day was strong, and the New York Stock Exchange, which closed early this morning, saw international oil prices rise more than 5%. Iran is an oil producer. It accounts for about 3% of the world's crude oil production, and it produces about 3.3 million barrels a day. However, if Iran actually attacks Iran's oil refineries, production is disrupted, but Iran ranks fourth in the world in reserves. Since 9% of the world's supplies are buried in Iran, if this becomes a reality, the supply and demand of international oil could be disrupted, so West Texas Intermediate surged 5.15%, rising to $73 per barrel and $77 per barrel in the UK, but international oil prices rose 8% in three days. This weekly gain is the highest weekly gain since March last year.

◇Anchor> While anxiety is building up, President Biden's words have stimulated this anxiety. What did you mean?

◆Lee In-cheol> Then, would Israel, which has been attacked by more than 180 rounds now, stand still? I was worried about two things. One is whether to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. I drew a line on this. The U.S. was against it, but now it is considering retaliatory measures, including Iran's attack on oil facilities. Saying it with this nuance, it did not make it a fait accompli, but the fact that it was also considering the possibility of an attack shocked the market. Iran has not officially been able to export crude oil due to international sanctions. Nevertheless, if Iran is known to smuggle secretly, including China, and Iran was really attacked by Israel and hit by oil facilities, wouldn't it be a monkey? Then, because there is a precedent of blocking the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, and because it covers one-third of international crude oil shipments, international oil prices soared by more than 5% in a day.

◇ Anchor> In one week, there are growing concerns that oil supply will decrease further if Iran, a major oil producer, is attacked. Some say it could reach more than $100 a barrel. What do you think about this?

◆Lee In-cheol> So when this Middle East conflict escalates, various specialized institutions talk about Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C, which are the worst cases. In the worst case, international oil prices could jump by three digits per barrel. In fact, international oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in a year and three months and to $60 per barrel even before the Middle East war. If Iran's oil facilities are attacked, it can reach triple digits per barrel. Although the production volume is around 3 percent per day, the oil reserves themselves account for 9 percent of the world's reserves. If Iran really blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will inevitably disrupt the supply of crude oil from the Middle East, which accounts for a third of the world's supply, because it is the oil export channel for Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. As a result, even the far-right in Israel must attack for now. We're talking about attacking Iran's oil refineries, so this is the worst-case scenario, I said earlier.Ma is about Plan A, Plan B, and Flat C, and it shouldn't become a reality.



Excerpted from the conversation: Lee Mi-young, editor of the digital news team

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