The last day of early voting for the October 16 by-elections...an all-out war between the ruling and opposition parties

■ Host: anchor Sung Moon-gyu
■ Starring: Lee Jong-hoon, political critic, Cha Jae-won, special professor at Busan Catholic University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Today, the last day of early voting for the by-elections on the 16th, representatives of the ruling and opposition parties traveled around the region and engaged in an all-out war. Although it is a small election, some predict that the direction of the political situation could change depending on the election results. Let's bring critic Lee Jong-hoon and special professor Cha Jae-won of Busan Catholic University to summarize the political issues. Representative Han Dong-hoon emphasized the theory of local workers and representative Lee Jae-myung emphasized the theory of judgment of the regime. First, let's listen to the related remarks first and start.

[Han Dong-hoon / Representative of People's Power: Everyone, the goal of this election is to make Geumjeong live well. You know that, right? You have to put your budget into this and you have to make sure that it's available for you. Where is the only party that can do that? Please take a picture of us. ]

[Lee Jae-myung / Democratic Party leader: If you still don't know why you were judged in the general election, you should take this opportunity to make a second judgment. Please show me the national yellow card and the second yellow card. ]

[Anchor]
has gotten so big that you don't know if it's a general election or a presidential election if you just look at the screen. It was the day of early voting for by-elections. Both representatives went on a campaign rally to support them. Before we talked about it passionately, the turnout of early voting came out, but it ended without being high overall. There was a difference by region, right?

[Jonghun Lee]
That's right. So, the overall 8% range came out. However, the overall factor that lowered the early voting rate this time was the early 8% level in the case of the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education election.

[Anchor]
8.2%, the election for the superintendent of education of Seoul.

[Jonghun Lee]
And Seoul is a metropolitan area. There are a lot of voters and other regions are basic, so the number of voters is small. So when it comes to the election of the other four basic government heads, the turnout is actually not that low. In the case of Honam, all of them exceeded 40%. In the case of Ganghwa, Yeongnam, it is in the 20% range. So it's that high compared to before, it's hard to see it like that, but it came out to some extent, but in fact, the early voting rate is so low in relation to the election of the superintendent of education of Seoul, so the proportion of the population is high and the overall average is low.

[Anchor]
Today and one thing to keep in mind is that the number of candidates for the superintendent of education in Seoul has decreased from four to three. Candidate Choi Bo-sun resigned. So even if you vote for candidate Choi Bo-sun, it becomes an invalid vote. Please keep that in mind, voters in Seoul. What did you think, professor? [CHA JAE WON] You mentioned the superintendent of Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education.The election of the superintendent of education in Seoul is not a party nomination election. Therefore, since the party organization is not in operation, it is clearly difficult to compare with the election of the head of the basic organization where the party nomination is applied. There's that aspect, too. On the other hand, in the past, the by-election for the head of Gangseo-gu District Office in Seoul was held so hot in October last year. Compared to that, the turnout of by-elections in the rest of the local governments seems to be low, but in fact, I think it's a little higher than the usual by-elections. In particular, in the case of holding in Gokseong and Yeonggwang, which are held in two places in Jeollanam-do, the turnout is quite high because the turnout is now over 40%. In the case of Busan Geumjeong, it is now over 20%, so in my opinion, it is higher than the pre-voting rate of the existing by-elections. As the two parties are fiercely competing with each other in the case of Busan Geumjeong, I think it may have contributed to attracting voters' attention and attention.

[Anchor]
I see. Then let's go to the hottest site you just mentioned. First of all, Busan Geumjeong and both representatives went today. Representative Han Dong-hoon emphasized the theory of local workers, which is an election to select workers of Geumjeong. Chairman Lee Jae-myung brought up the theory of regime judgment early on, what do you think of the two parties' strategies?

[Jonghun Lee]
In the case of representative Lee Jae-myung, basically, this by-election is also being led to Yoon Suk Yeol versus Lee Jae-myung. So, rather than targeting CEO Han Dong-hoon as the main target, we talk about the second judgment theory. The last general election was the first umpire and now the second umpire. This is aimed at President Yoon Suk Yeol because various suspicions have recently been raised regarding Kim Gun-hee. In fact, in the case of CEO Han Dong-hoon, you will want to confront this and make your personal thoughts in the composition of Han Dong-hoon versus Lee Jae-myung. However, the election situation is not very favorable to you. So, if I do something wrong, I'm very likely to be engulfed in responsibility, so honestly, in terms of election strategy, I feel like I'm taking my foot out a little. a local worker theory So, rather than counter-attacking the second judgment theory, they are slightly avoiding it. So it's probably hard to fight back on political issues. That's how I look at it.

[Anchor]
If you look at it now, CEO Han Dong-hoon went today as well. I went there four times and was there for five days in terms of the date. Isn't that how important it is now?

[Jonghun Lee]
At the same time as it is important, it has become a dangerous area now. In fact, Busan Geumjeong is an area where people's support for power is so strong that it is called the PK's TKda. It is the same area as the garden among the gardens, but if you look at the recent situation, the Democratic Party of Korea has succeeded in unifying here, and even if the unification variable is excluded, too many Democratic candidates are making remarkable progress. That's why we have to put a lot of effort into this situation. There could be a lot of factors.Earlier, there was talk of early voting turnout. Currently, the early voting rate is relatively low in places that are the garden of people's power. If you think about why, isn't it that the supporters of the people's power are a little reluctant to come to the polls? Experts generally believe that there are many suspicions related to Kim, and that even key conservative supporters are dissatisfied, and that they are likely not to appear at the polls this time. I think it's related to that.

[Anchor]
The TK area of the PK. In particular, even though it is a region with a strong conservative tax, it is now taken as a very dangerous signal, and that's what the people saw. Professor, what do you think?

[Borrowing]
I am of the same opinion. From Han Dong-hoon's point of view, even if he wins Ganghwa and Busan Geumjeong, which are areas where people's power is strong, it is only a matter of winning. That's why I was actually trying to get a certain distance from the by-elections. It was probably a situation where the presidential office and the ruling party were all-in on the head of Gangseo-gu District Office in Seoul in October last year, and faced considerable political distress. So, because the party leadership system has changed, this nomination is a distancing from the central party, so-called political distancing. It's a kind of distance by entrusting each city and province to nomination. What started at the beginning is a kind of local election. That's why representative Han Dong-hoon's various political messages are also focusing on selecting local workers. Of course, we did attack the Democratic Party today.Ma is focusing on the slip of the tongue of Kim Young-bae of the Democratic Party of Korea. Rather than trying to bring it to the political dispute in line with the political situation, it seems to be focusing on the message of selecting optimized workers in the region. On the other hand, as mentioned earlier in the case of the Democratic Party of Korea, Geumjeong is actually a very conservative home where the people's power has been continuously winning, except that the Democratic Party of Korea once served as the head of the district office in the 2018 local elections. Therefore, if we win here, then various public sentiment related to Kim Gun-hee, who is currently covering the political situation, has been proven. If so, based on this, I think I can go from the so-called parliamentary inspection that ends the regime to the by-election that ends the regime.

[Anchor]
This is a very important election. It's going on right now, and CEO Han Dong-hoon said it earlier.Ma is continuing to raise the level of her remarks regarding Mrs. Kim. In the meantime, you said earlier that if you really take it away, the damage will be quite big, but is Busan Geumjeong that important?

[Jonghun Lee]
That's right. So, as I said earlier, this is an area that you can't give out, in a nutshell, but if you say you gave it out...

[Anchor]
What will happen from the perspective of CEO Han Dong-hoon? Will Han Dong-hoon's position change a little within the party?

[Jonghun Lee]
There may be changes within the party. So, considering how we have been organized when there has been a conflict between the leadership and the president in terms of people's power, in this case, it is difficult to see whether representative Han Dong-hoon is responsible for the by-elections even if the people's power is completely defeated. President Yoon Suk Yeol, especially representative Han Dong-hoon, who suffered a mysterious loss due to various suspicions related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, clearly has that aspect.

[Anchor]
The general election evaluation was a little similar.

[Jonghun Lee]
Right. But if it's two times, it's a different story. That's what happened in the last general election, and if you say so again this time, one thing is for sure. What that is is, there were risks related to various suspicions at that time, including Kim Gun-hee. There are the same risks this time, but it is confirmed that CEO Han Dong-hoon failed to show his personal skills, in a word, in two separate occasions. If that happens, would you stay still on the pro-Yoon-gye side? There is a very high possibility of getting up and attacking. I should look at it like this.

[Anchor]
And CEO Lee Jae-myung is facing sentencing in November. If the power of the people is now putting all their life and death on Busan Geumjeong, isn't the Democratic Party almost putting all its life and death on glory? It's a three-way race there.

[Borrowing]
In fact, the Democratic Party was quite nervous because the Cho Kuk Innovation Party was quite advanced.Ma said, "If you look at the recent trend, the candidates of the Progressive Party are also not easy. That's why it's forming a kind of three-way race. Therefore, in the case of Yeonggwang in Jeollanam-do, it may be the home of the Democratic Party of Korea, so it is very important to win the victory of Geumjeong from the perspective of Chairman Lee Jae-myung, but it becomes a situation where it is very important to defend glory and wailing. And if the Democratic Party loses this election, then we can count the number of cases. If Cho Kuk, the candidate of the Innovation Party, is elected, wouldn't the political impact be a little bigger? This is because Cho Kuk, the leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, has been going all in there for a month. However, the problem is that some kind of glorious election is clearly seen as a confrontation between Lee Jae-myung and his country, so if the Cho Kuk Innovation Party wins here, Honam's strategic choice could lean toward his country in the future presidential system. Another scenario is that if the Progressive Party wins, it was given stupidly due to some kind of division of the Democratic Party. If this happens, both Cho Kuk, the leader of the Innovation Party, and Lee Jae-myung could be in political trouble, and it seems to be flowing into such an ambiguous situation.

[Anchor]
That's what I'm saying. I think it's similar to the current U.S. presidential election. I can't believe it. I am honored. Mr. Han Dong-hoon, I mentioned in Busan that today's presidential office needs to overhaul its personnel to address concerns and concerns about First Lady Kim Gun-hee. What do you think of this meaning?

[Jonghun Lee]
That's why I'm saying organize the Kim Gun-hee line in the presidential office. That's the key point. Then why did they especially go to Busan and put this message out? As I said earlier within conservative supporters, the by-elections are likely to have low early voting rates and poor conservative supporters will not come to the polls, especially in areas such as Busan and Ganghwa. It's Mrs. Kim Gun-hee. Even the 70s and 80s think that they are not responding properly to the Kim Gun-hee issue. There are very many complaints about not organizing this problem quickly. Isn't it showing up as a poll indicator now? Because of that situation, even if the part related to Kim Gun-hee cannot be resolved immediately, even representative Han Dong-hoon needs to continue to raise the issue to see them at the polls.

[Anchor]
But the reason why CEO Han Dong-hoon talked about the need for a personnel reshuffle in the presidential office today was because Kim Dae-nam mentioned that there was a secret line related to the woman, so he answered it like this. Is this a secret line around Mrs. Kim?

[Jonghun Lee]
I can't say that there is a substance. However, rumors have been around, and I have no choice but to hear indirectly through reporters covering the presidential office, and I only hear from acquaintances related to people working in the presidential office. The reports are also a reference. It's already known that the Kim Gun-hee line in the presidential office is just about anything. As you know, recently, in the case of Kim Dae-nam, expressions of Ten Sang-si also appeared during his remarks. So it's almost like an open secret. So there is talk that the Kim Gun-hee line exists and that they are leading virtually everything in the presidential office. So, regardless of whether it's true or not, there's a part that makes even the core conservative supporters very uncomfortable about it, regardless of whether it's true or not. So, I think there is a high possibility that representative Han Dong-hoon will think that conservative supporters will come to the polls only if he makes remarks that draw a line to some extent.

[Anchor]
How did Professor Cha hear CEO Han Dong-hoon's remarks on personnel reform in the presidential office today?

[Borrowing]
At this point, the by-elections are about to take place. And as we have said, Geumjeong is said to be the home of conservatives, but it is showing a shaky pattern. If so, we need to show a change in public sentiment about this, which requires action related to Kim Gun-hee, and the fact that this story came out after hearing a question related to Kim Dae-nam means that in the end, the starting point of all changes should be a change of people, starting from this. And in fact, one of the various measures that the president said he would do politics after the ruling party was defeated in the last general election was personnel reform in the presidential office. However, even after that, the government's stance has not changed at all, and the conflict with the ruling party itself is getting bigger. I think the ruling party's leader had no choice but to demand a change in personnel from the president's perspective.

[Anchor]
However, as CEO Han Dong-hoon continues to raise the level of his remarks, the pro-Yoon community is talking about whether he is asking for a public opinion trial now. There are complaining voices saying, "It's a self-inflicted statement, why are you openly talking about it behind closed doors?" What do you think of this atmosphere?

[Jonghun Lee]
So pro-Yoon-gye lawmakers have no choice but to talk about that. If President Yoon Suk Yeol and Representative Han Dong-hoon are on a very good relationship, there is no need to talk about that at all, but the conflict has escalated recently, and rumors have it that President Yoon is not even looking at Representative Han Dong-hoon these days. If that's true, shouldn't pro-Yoon-gye even protect the president's mind? And it will also be related to their future course of action. So, it's also a little bit of a reward for the nomination during the last general election. As I said earlier, there are aspects that representative Han Dong-hoon recognizes that there is actually a problem with making various remarks about Kim Gun-hee recently, but he thinks this is important in relation to the by-elections, so he is doing it to turn the votes, especially to change the atmosphere right now. So, in this case, it seems that it is a way for the pro-profit circles to refrain from stepping forward a little, but I understand that there is no consideration for such an election.

[Anchor]
I see. Even ahead of the election, we should have refrained from making remarks by the pro-Yoon-gye. There's talk of a private meeting right now. This is a story from the presidential office, and it is said that they will meet after the by-elections on the 16th. Will Han Dong-hoon say all these things then?

[Borrowing]
Well, the results of the by-elections are bound to be very important. If the people's power in the by-elections protects the politics and reinforcement, which can be called the home turf, it is likely that a solo meeting will take place, but if they lose, they will have no choice but to tilt their heads to see if the political schedule will be possible due to the political aftermath. To put it the other way around, why is it after the by-elections from Han's point of view? Before the by-elections, the president must have a regret that it would be advantageous for the election to show him listening to the public through a meeting with the ruling party leader. That's why, in fact, who doesn't know what CEO Han Dong-hoon will say when he has a private meeting? You all know it. These are various changes in state administration and personnel reshuffles related to first lady Kim Gun-hee, and perhaps beyond an apology, the presidential office needs to take more preemptive measures. For example, they should voluntarily appear at the prosecution office or the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit to show that they will stand before the law confidently. That's what you want to talk about. Therefore, as I said earlier, having a solo meeting after the by-elections may not be possible depending on the results, so I think that Han Dong-hoon's conversation about personnel reform today is actually a political message prepared in advance.

[Anchor]
What do you think of it? If the report card comes out wrong in the by-elections, the power of the people. Then, is it possible that the private meeting won't happen?

[Jonghun Lee]
That's possible. At first, it was reported that the private theater would be held after the by-elections, so I thought it was definitely done, but after hearing about it here and there, it's not clear yet.

[Anchor]
CEO Han Dong-hoon also said he didn't have anything specific to say today.

[Jonghun Lee]
That's how things are going now, so let's see President Yoon Suk Yeol first after the by-elections. I think it's done now. In fact, if you really have such an idea to win the by-elections this time, President Yoon Suk Yeol should push representative Han Dong-hoon to a private meeting before the by-elections. And even if there is no clear direction from that, I think those who turned a little bit because of the 7080s and Kim Gun-hee mentioned earlier would have been able to come to the polls even if the presidential office and the leadership of the people decided to deliberate on the Kim Gun-hee issue. To put it bluntly, however, President Yoon is not willing to help representative Han Dong-hoon. That's how I see it.

[Anchor]
That's what I'm saying. If the by-elections are held first, there is a possibility that the by-elections may be released, and in reverse, there is a possibility that the by-elections may not be held, and there are various variables depending on the relationship between the two. However, from the perspective of the Democratic Party of Korea, what Chairman Han Dong-hoon said was that if he wants to be sincere, he should persuade the president to accept the special prosecution. I've said this, but is there a possibility that it's going to be like this? What do you think?

[Borrowing]
I think there is a high possibility that CEO Han Dong-hoon will also deliver the message if he meets alone. Because one of the special prosecution laws is the Chae Sang-byung Special Prosecutor Act, and the Chae Sang-byung Special Prosecutor Act was his pledge at the last national convention. The part where the ruling party said it would take the lead in finding out the unfair part of the Marine who died unfairly, and I think the part related to Kim Gun-hee is likely to judge that it has exceeded the level of apology. And the truth is that in a way, the atmosphere within the ruling party and the number of non-maroon lawmakers, as well as close relatives within the ruling party, clearly feel the crisis that the government itself can be destroyed without taking care of Kim Gun-hee's problems. If so, a growing number of lawmakers are skeptical that the DP will be able to defend itself next time it makes another independent counsel on Kim Gun-hee and goes back to the redetermined stage. If so, the party's atmosphere is like this from the perspective of a representative who is aware of this atmosphere. If so, let's preemptively get a special prosecution law related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee. So let's preemptively brush off these parts by accepting the various unconstitutional and toxic provisions in the so-called Democratic Party-only legislative process, but in a reasonable way. I think that's what I'm thinking of saying. If you can't talk about that, there's no reason to have a private conversation.

[Anchor]
The special prosecutor is the special prosecutor. We also talked about the prosecution's investigation recently. I think we can talk about the prosecution's investigation by saying that the prosecution should produce results that the public can understand regarding the Deutsche Motors stock price manipulation case. What do you think?

[Jonghun Lee]
In the case of Deutsche Motors, new suspicions continue to emerge, and the results of the trial are being punished, and the issue of whether it is okay to move on without prosecuting Kim as it is has been raised. In addition, the remaining suspicions of intervention in the nomination are additional suspicions that continue to be raised. So last time, I think CEO Han Dong-hoon already announced this part. When Kim Gun-hee's independent counsel law was returned after exercising his presidential veto, he said that he would reject this law. I'll let it slide just this time. That's what I'm thinking. Rather, it may be better for CEO Han Dong-hoon to be more active and voluntarily beaten. Recently, there has been a lot of such talk within the people's power, so I think they are actively and preemptively thinking about ways to preemptively introduce the Kim Gun-hee Special Prosecutor Act from the people's power. If I have a private conversation, I think I'll definitely talk about it.

[Anchor]
After the vote, the pro-Yoon-gye gathered together and showed off three times. In the meantime, let's talk about the suspicion of Myung Tae-kyun's secret line, which is shaking the passport. There are also suspicions of intervening in the nomination of Mrs. Kim in relation to Myung Tae-kyun. Suspicions of undisclosed polls are also being raised, but various stories and characters are appearing in the ruling party. What do you think? Among the problems related to Myung Tae-kyun, what do you think is the most problematic right now?

[Borrowing]
That's what I think. Regarding the polls, aren't you saying that Myung Tae-kyun conducted polls for President Yoon Suk Yeol for quite a few days during the last presidential election? So the cost was over 300 million won, and I went to President Yoon with the bill, but I didn't receive the money, and what happened after returning was that former lawmaker Kim Young-sun, supported by Myung Tae-kyun, was nominated for a by-election in Changwon. So there is a suspicion that this is a kind of exchange of polling costs and nominations. This could actually be a really serious suspicion. It's a violation of the Public Official Election Act or the Political Parties Act. In the case of the Public Official Election Act, it may be possible to say that there is no problem because the statute of limitations has passed, but in fact, it is a serious situation from the public's perspective and legal sentiment. This is the so-called hawk magic. If you look at it from that point of view, I think the Democratic Party will probably focus strongly on the offensive to find out the truth about this part. In fact, how does the presidential office take a position on these areas now? I think a lot of people are watching.

[Anchor]
So, you mentioned the opinion polls during the presidential election, and this was influenced by Myung in the party leadership race and the Seoul mayoral race in 2021, and Na Kyung-won and Lee Joon-seok are fighting fiercely on social media. Mayor Oh Se-hoon also participated in the war. What do you think of this atmosphere? My passport is shaking a lot right now.

[Jonghun Lee]
But I think that this is a bit of a play in the strategy of Myung Tae-kyun. As you all know, the Public Official Election Act, or it seems to have already been concluded not to prosecute, but it is already being investigated for violating the Political Fund Act. I started receiving it last January, regarding this. The case of accounting officer Kang, who recently served as an informant, has also been under investigation since January. In fact, for these people, the biggest goal is to get out of the crisis quickly. To that end, I think Myung Tae-kyun is really fiercely playing the media right now. He's poking everywhere and talking like this as if he's involved, but he's been doing a kind of massage recently on the most important part of what he can get involved in, where he can get more punishment. For example, during the last presidential election you mentioned a while ago, didn't Mr. Kang testify? I did a poll and the cost was 360 million won, but I couldn't get it even though I said I was going to get it. If this is true, this is an issue that even President Yoon Suk Yeol can't avoid. What I'm saying about this is that I talked with Kang about it, but he recently said that he didn't report on the poll. And the most decisive thing now is whether or not to intervene in the nomination process during the last general election? In this regard, the words keep changing little by little. So, Myung Tae-kyun's goal is to reveal this all over the world, reveal even if there was an illegal act, so that he will be punished, and the president of Yoon Suk Yeol and the rest of the people involved will be punished if they are illegal. In the end, the goal is to lower the sentence as much as possible when he is likely to be investigated by the prosecution and sentenced to prison, so not only are the revelations that the Democratic Party wants, and even the decisive smoking gun, but it's also a little questionable personally.

[Anchor]
The disclosure war is coming out through interviews with various media companies, so I think we need to end this story because we're not doing it alone, and there are many characters, including Kang Hye-kyung. How will this wrap up? The whole case?

[Borrowing]
Well, the prosecution is investigating Myung Tae Kyun.Ma said, "It's actually a different investigation, so if the part that Myung Tae-kyun is talking about is quite defamatory and various problems, it's the fastest step to take legal action against those involved and investigate them. In fact, stories about the president and his wife continue to flow out before legal action. If so, the president's office is explaining something about this, but how many times have we met? They said they met twice, but it's only four times that it's known now. In this way, if the presidential office's explanation itself is losing public trust, I think it is necessary to wrap up the situation quickly by saying that the president will explain himself to the people and take responsibility for this matter. If the president's desk says I'll take all of my responsibilities, shouldn't I finish those things quickly with my own responsibility?

[Anchor]
I see. I'll stop listening to you two. Critic Lee Jong-hoon and Cha Jae-won, a professor at Busan Catholic University. Thank you both.