North Korea participates in the Ukraine war, what is the ？ of the aim?

■ Host: Anchor Jeong Jin-hyung and anchor Lee Eun-sol
■ Starring: Kim Dae-young, military expert at the Korea Institute for National Strategy

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 8PM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The wave continues with the news that North Korea is sending special forces to the war in Ukraine. It's not just us, it's the same for other countries. As previously said, the National Security Office urged an immediate withdrawal and warned Ukraine that it could even provide offensive weapons. Today, Kim Dae-young, a military expert at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, will point out related news. Please come in. Regarding the North Korean military's dispatch to Ukraine, the National Security Office today urged the North Korean military to withdraw its dispatch, and if military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues like this, it can even consider providing offensive weapons to Ukraine. It must be because of this judgment that North Korea-Russia military training is being taken seriously, but if you look more closely, in what way is it a threat to Korea?

[Daeyoung Kim]
You have to look at this. Whether it's North Korea or Russia, you haven't openly said that troops have been sent yet, right? But in this way, in case of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, Putin actually went to North Korea and held talks with Chairman Kim Jong-un, and then signed a new defense treaty. Then, in this way, Russia could intervene in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, right? Then, from the perspective of the Korean government, if this is developed, of course, such a situation should not occur, but in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, Russia intervenes in military intervention. Then this is a huge deal. It is seen that various measures are being put in place now to prevent this, and in our case, this is unacceptable to us. Since it can only be seen as a message to break down the current Korea-Russia relationship, I think we must take corresponding measures somehow.

[Anchor]
In the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, it is an immediate threat, so we have no choice but to pay more attention. The keyword "attack weapon" came out. What do you mean by this offensive weapon?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Perhaps it's mainly weapons that can kill Russian troops. So the most frequently mentioned weapon is actually a 155mm shell if we can choose the first weapon of killing that we can support. So, at the end of last year, the Ukrainian military used about 1,000 155mm shells a day. However, it lacked a lot of it, so it was a minimum of 1,000 shots, and the situation is still similar. So, in the case of the Ukrainian military, 155mm shells play a major role in leading the battlefield, so a lot is needed, but now the Western world, including the United States, has applied a lot, but it's still not enough. However, in the case of Korea, we have a large amount of shells in stock in preparation for a war with North Korea. In fact, if you look closely at North Korea, there is a saying that the NIS announced it, but it provided about 8 million rounds of support for 120mm and 150mm. But our country also has a large amount of shells, so if we provide a large amount of shells to Ukraine as a response, especially 150mm shells, it could have a big impact on the tide of war. That is why I would like to say that if that happens in Russia, it will produce very painful results.

[Anchor]
What about weapons like perforation 2?

[Daeyoung Kim]
However, there is a problem. Punch 2 is a weapon that is just being deployed in our military, so we are actually building a missile defense system against North Korean threats, and it is ambiguous to take out such weapons. If you think about what weapons you can give, there are also talks about defensive weapons, but domestically made weapons have a characteristic of replacing those that were brought from overseas in the past. Then, there is a possibility that we may provide Ukraine with surface-to-air missiles or light surface-to-air missiles that have been introduced overseas in the past, and in this case, we need to obtain permission from the countries that have introduced them. However, countries like the United States and France are actively supporting Ukraine now, so I don't think there is such a problem.

[Anchor]
According to the NIS' announcement, it seems that the North Korean military is sending troops mainly to operate military supplies, which are led by special forces from the North Korean military, but didn't there be a flapping photo of the Russian state and its flag stuck together on pro-Russian social media today? I need to check the exact location a little more.Ma came up saying it was a battleground in eastern Ukraine. So, above all, will the special forces be directly deployed in close-knit areas? I think this part will be controversial, how do you see it?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Didn't the National Intelligence Service announce that about 10,000 people are preparing? I think they're waiting in Primorsky Krai. And the video came out. There was a video of Korean. And there was a similar video a few hours ago. So before that, North Korea supported missiles and shells, and people who educated or supported these weapons went first. And the second one is supposed to be combat troops, but I think I'm in a situation like this after training. Then, if it's as early as the first week of November or a little late, I think I'll appear on the front line around the second week of December. There is a very high possibility that he will be put on the front line after training. If this happens, the Russian military is likely to put North Korean troops on the fiercest front line. So when some saw it coming from the Ukrainian side, didn't Ukraine invade Kursk in August? There is a possibility that Russia will send troops there. Therefore, there are talks that North Korean soldiers may be used to retake Kursk, and there is a possibility that they may be deployed to the southern and central front lines, but for now, they are focusing on Kursk, so they are likely to be deployed there.

[Anchor]
But why is it being put into such a fierce area? Is it because North Korean military resources are excellent?

[Daeyoung Kim]
The problem is not the excellent resources, but one of the serious problems the Russian military is experiencing now is the lack of troops. And another problem is that in the case of the Ukraine war, if you look closely, at least thousands to as many as 10,000 drones float a day. As a result, if any signs are detected by drones, whether they are attacking or defending, they will immediately enter the attack. So, what are the situations that we are concerned about if the North Korean military also participates in the war? Of course, North Korea selected the best agents, but first of all, North Korea and Korea are mountainous terrain. So the battlefield environment itself is different. Ukraine is mostly flat because Ukraine and we have different battlefield environments. And there are a lot of drones flying around. Then there's a high possibility of being shelled before they can actually be put into the attack. And in a way, this could be quite a self-inflicted move for North Korea. So in that respect, it is quite unclear how much combat power the North Korean military will exert.

[Anchor]
And they analyzed that the appearance would be revealed around early November. If North Korea actually participates in the war, wouldn't it be the first overseas participation of a warring party? It will lead to other countries' justification for participation in the war. There are also concerns like this, how do you see it?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Of course, we can't rule out the possibility of that at all. But if you look closely now, especially the Russian military deceives the North Korean soldiers as if they were Russian soldiers, and North Korea is sympathizing with them. Next, as you know, Russia is a multi-ethnic country. So, from a distance, it is difficult to distinguish whether it is a North Korean soldier or a Russian minority. But the important thing now is that Russia is a free country, so there is a lot of use of SNS. That's why videos like this keep coming out through SNS. However, because of those points, it is very likely that they will continue to wrap this up as mercenaries or minorities in Russia until the end. And from the standpoint of North Korea, if it is done publicly, it will be additional sanctions from the international community anyway. I think that's why many countries, including NATO members, our allies, and us, are considering that aspect.

[Anchor]
There is something strange about North Korea's recent actions. He also blasted the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise and claimed that drones were found over Pyongyang, ordering the front area to be ready to fire. What kind of background is there? Is there any connection?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Rather than the connection, we should focus on why we sent this troops, but in my opinion, it's money. For example, North Korea provided a lot of weapons to Russia, but it would have been replaced by food or energy that North Korea needs, but in the case of troops, they should be paid. So, not only North Korea, but also Cuba, India, Nepal, Africa, and even China usually go as mercenaries in Russia. I understand that at least those people's salaries are about 2,000 dollars. Then the North Korean authorities will take most of them. So in a way, it can be a means of cash to raise Kim Jong-un's slush funds and solve difficult economic difficulties. In that respect, some North Korean defector groups say that. Rather, in the case of Kim Jong-un, it may be better if North Korean soldiers are sacrificed. Because you can receive more consolation money, some people also talk about that aspect.

[Anchor]
You see it as a means of earning foreign currency.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. Basically, it's paid in dollars, so in the case of North Korea right now, the lack of foreign currency can be a serious economic problem, so I think we decided to send troops in that regard.

[Anchor]
The U.S. presidential election is just around the corner. At that point, many people seem to have doubts in the situation where there is a greater precipitation of dispatch. What do you think North Korea is doing this regardless of the U.S. presidential election?

[Daeyoung Kim]
First of all, from the perspective of North Korea, relations with China have become very estranged. And as you know, Putin visited Pyongyang and signed a new defense treaty, and in a way, North Korea and Russia are very close. In that respect, Russia is actually more important than the United States for North Korea, and depending on who will be elected in the U.S. presidential election in November, the range of movements can vary greatly. For example, former President Trump wins re-election. Then, it is very likely that North Korea will also hold talks with President Trump once again. At the same time, it is expected that they will make a lot of efforts to gain nuclear status. Actually, didn't you show me the enriched uranium facility a few days ago? This could also be used as a card in preparation for the nuclear negotiations. I guess he brought up such a message.

[Anchor]
Let's stop here. I pointed it out with Kim Dae-young, a military expert at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. Thank you.