[New Square 10] Reasons for the dispatch of North Korean troops...North Korea's "Founded Rumors"

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won
■ Starring: Lim Eul-chul, professor of the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Videos and photos supporting the North Korean military's dispatch to Russia have also been released. While North Korea gave its first official response, saying it was a groundless rumor, the South Korean government warned of a phased response. I will talk with Professor Eul-chul about the related content and the Far East Research Institute at Kyungnam University. Please come in.

[Leave]
How are you?

[Anchor]
Various circumstances are coming out now, but Russia is shedding little by little, can I look at it like this? What's the situation?

[Leave]
First of all, there seems to be no reason for the Russian government to intentionally leak this information. If the government intentionally spills it, it is reasonable to spread such a video that can show more decisive circumstantial evidence. First of all, the Russian government officially denies sending North Korean troops. Also, the same goes for North Korea, maybe this is still agreed between the Russian government and the North Korean government.

So, in September last year, Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the Vostocini Space Base for a summit and after that, if you look at North Korea-Russia relations, in fact, military cooperation is the only one that has been kept private. However, the problem is that military cooperation between North Korea and Russia will deepen as Russia's situation and North Korea's perception of various internal and external security threats are combined. It's true that we can fully expect that. So I have to open up all possibilities and see, but first of all, we need to watch a little more about the dispatch of North Korean troops.

[Anchor]
However, as new circumstances and new evidence videos related to the dispatch of troops come out, there are recorded videos related to us. Let's take a look at the recorded video. This is a Russian Telegram channel. But here, Degaso, Degaso, which is heard as the voice of the North Korean military, can be heard. As a result, it seems that North Korea and Russia continue to pay attention to the military closeness of Russia, what do you think about this?

[Leave]
The level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues to strengthen, and even if we sent North Korean soldiers, for example, this is not the end. I think this in itself means a new beginning of military cooperation. First of all, if you look at the materials released by our National Intelligence Service, it seems to be true to some extent that North Korean soldiers go all the way to Vladivostok and do local adaptation training. However, it has not yet been confirmed whether North Korean soldiers have actually been deployed to the front line of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

So, I think we should pay considerable attention to the North Korean military's dispatch is a very important variable for our security, but what role will this dispatched North Korean soldier play? You have to watch this part. So whether you want to simply play a role as a supporting force or really play a role as a combat force on the front line. There seems to be more to watch in these areas, and I'm especially paying attention to the U.S. response, but the U.S. has been still checking it for five days now. I'm also in discussions with allies such as Korea, and I'm just repeating these things.

Why hasn't the U.S. confirmed it yet when it has far superior local intelligence assets? I think this is another interesting part for us to watch, but in my view, the U.S. presidential election is two weeks away in the U.S. So, I think managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula has emerged as a very important goal. As you know well now, the competition between Harris and Trump is very close and we don't know who will win. In this situation, if there is a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the Russia-Ukraine war is intensifying now, and the Israel-Middle East war is intensifying. Under these circumstances, if there is a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, it will inevitably be disadvantageous to Harris. Of course, immigration, economic issues, and democracy threats are the biggest issues right now, but the conflict situation on the Korean Peninsula will certainly never be favorable to the current ruling Biden administration, especially Harris. So I will focus on managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula as stably as possible, and that's what I see.

[Anchor]
You said that the U.S. position is also drawing attention, but as you mentioned earlier, the part where the North Korean military moved to Vladivostok has also been confirmed by the South Korean government. It's not confirmed yet whether we've reached the front line.As you can see, there are also analyses that the front line, that is, the North Korean flag is now on the Ukrainian front line, so the front line is also being used. What do you think?

[Leave]
First of all, I think it's hard to trust. And basically, the part related to military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, which is spreading on SNS, seems to have a lot more to check. The Russian or North Korean authorities cannot control the social media activities, and another variable that we should pay attention to is that Ukraine continues to actively promote military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

[Anchor]
You're actively talking about sending troops to North Korea, right?

[Leave]
President Zelensky is the most active one, and this is the situation. In some ways, I believe that information spreading on social media may also be related to the activities of Ukrainian intelligence authorities. Now, President Zelensky is two weeks away from the U.S. presidential election, and he seems to be trying very hard to make the tide in any way. In order to do this, additional military support, dispatch, and so on from NATO and European countries are also very urgent. So, I told you earlier about whether the U.S. is responding to the North Korean military's dispatch of troops around the world, but the U.S. is not responding right now. So I think it's clear that the North Korean military is definitely in Russia. in various circumstances But again, I don't think the possibility of being at the forefront is very high.

[Anchor]
However, North Korea is hiding the fact that it is sending troops to the inside at a time when it denies the current situation, saying that it is a groundless rumor that it has made an official position. What kind of strategy should this be considered?

[Leave]
Many media outlets say that there is a high possibility that North Korean soldiers will go to the front line and become bullet supporters. For example, if the character of a North Korean soldier was dispatched for the purpose of fighting at the front line, there would certainly be a victim. It's an inevitable situation. However, if you look at the Kim Jong-un regime now, it is inevitable that North Koreans will inevitably die due to natural disasters, but what the Kim Jong-un regime cares most about now is managing public sentiment.

People's popular firstism is now putting forward their own political ideology, so of course, this is an argument that can stay in the retoric, but there are actually quite a few areas that are supported by some actions. That's why people's popularism is the political ideology of the Kim Jong-un era, and they manage public sentiment. So, after the flood in North Hamgyong Province, we have been dealing with the flood damage by conducting on-site guidance several times, and we have recently visited Jagang Island, and we have called the flood victims to Pyongyang to educate the children.

This attempt itself shows that the North Korean system is in some way vulnerable, but if the public sentiment is not properly managed, this could be an uncontrollable situation. However, for example, 12,000 North Korean soldiers went to the Ukrainian front line and died, 1,000 each day and hundreds every day. The rumor is out of control.

[Anchor]
However, isn't the reason why more than 10,000 people have been sent overseas when it is an internal situation in North Korea that is bound to be sensitive to public sentiment?

[Leave]
That's right. That's how you calculate it. So, if we dispatch troops, we will try to persuade North Koreans internally about what purpose they have. At this stage, I don't think it's the stage to disclose it yet. So, I think there is a possibility of making such various internal preparations and disclosing them at some point. The problem is that if you send troops like this and risk sacrifices at the forefront as the best combat troops, you will definitely have victims, and how to manage rumors related to the victims, this is very important.

But are you going to risk that and send it as a combat force? Otherwise, I'm not a combat soldier, but I told you that we need to wait and see if we actually send enough volunteers to support Russia in order to show the spirit of the North Korea-Russia alliance. I think there is a possibility that the level of disclosure or content may vary depending on the mission or nature of the troops being dispatched.

But I don't think this is the stage to reveal it yet. And Chairman Kim Jong-un, of course, wants compensation if he dispatches combat troops in any way. This person is a very weak person, even though we've been watching. But many people mention economic cooperation, and that's also very important. However, in my view, Chairman Kim Jong-un's calculation method, economic cooperation can be secured at any time later.

What is the most urgent thing right now, what do you need the most? What the Kim Jong-un regime needs the most, I think I'll ask for support in that regard, but I think that's modernization of defense capabilities. That's why there are so many different elements that can be cutting-edge military weapons, related technologies, or know-how. It's likely that's the number one priority. If you sent a combat soldier with the confidence of securing it, it is likely that you sent it.

[Anchor]
Let's take a look at our government's response as well. Our military has been sending troops to North Koreans over loudspeakers since a few days ago. It also said that it is considering providing offensive weapons to Ukraine, but if it goes to providing offensive weapons now, shouldn't it be considered a red line set by Russia?

[Leave]
We need to see what weapons are sent, but it seems that the Korean and Russian governments have at least exchanged their mutual perceptions of what the red line is. As a result, the Korean government will respond step by step in response to the level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. That's why they're putting pressure on Russia, saying that they can send defensive weapons to the first stage and gradually switch to offensive weapons. In fact, from Russia's point of view, this can't help but be a burden.

So, there are aspects of receiving North Korean troops and putting them into battle to bring out positive contributions to the war in Ukraine, but if the South Korean military's advanced offensive weapons come in, it can actually offset the advantage of using the North Korean military. It's a part that can be much disadvantageous to Russia. So I think that this will contribute to some degree of restraint in the level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

Another concern, however, is that if Ukraine is provided with defensive and offensive weapons, this may also have a significant negative impact on the security of the Korean Peninsula. Because from Russia's point of view, isn't it a justification that Korea can now set itself as a warlord in earnest and that they can more actively support weapons and troops, for example, in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula? In that sense, it is quite two-sided. Look at it like this.

[Anchor]
Vice Minister Kim Yo-jong's recent discourse is also very noticeable, and he made raw criticism by combining Korea and Ukraine. They sent troops, but why are you so rawly criticizing them?

[Leave]
First of all, Vice Minister Kim Yo-jong's criticism has continued to warn that the South Korean military sent drones to Pyongyang to disperse propaganda leaflets against North Korea. If you guys stimulate them like this one more time, they'll shoot all out, so they're threatening right now. However, it is clear that the Korean government rejects this part in a way. You're looking at the appearance of putting more pressure on North Korea.

In addition, the North Korean military's dispatch of troops to Russia has become a fait accompli and various pressures are being put in place to respond to it. And on the 21st, a propaganda leaflet sent by a private organization was found on the front line, and we're talking about it now. So things like this. So, as a nuclear power, they have warned them several times not to provoke them again and not to provoke them, but this is not very effective. That's why I'm protesting like this.

So make the atmosphere more severe and keep a little more of what they warned. We are now a nuclear nation. Why do you keep touching us? We're talking like this. In any case, it seems clear that the current situation is in a process that continues to deteriorate in a way.

[Anchor]
There is an atmosphere in which the security landscape is changing a lot, but Putin and President Xi Jinping met for the first time in three months. Is there any discussion here about weapons aid related to Ukraine or North Korea?

[Leave]
In my view, China and Russia, for example, are unlikely to provide military aid in any way to the Russia-Ukraine war. I think I'll probably apply in a different way, but I've been doing that so far.

That's economic cooperation after all. Russia is currently under international sanctions, and even in the face of sanctions, it is currently doing the most to China in relation to crude oil and gas exports.

In itself, from China's point of view, it is now playing a role in helping Russia. However, public interest is now whether such a part has been discussed in relation to the North Korean military's dispatch of the war to Ukraine. China seems to be very concerned about managing its relationship with Korea anyway.

So, I think it's a long way from crossing the red line. It's unlikely. Nevertheless, I think I should pay attention to China's perception of the Korean Peninsula and the deterioration of inter-Korean relations. Because until most recently, China has seen North Korea continue to develop nuclear weapons and missiles and even completely destroy inter-Korean relations, right?

What's the cause of this? I think China should consider this cause. That's why South Korea and the United States are putting too much pressure on North Korea, and through South Korea-U.S. exercises, the so-called South Korea-U.S. alliance is evolving into a nuclear alliance, which is why North Korea makes such a dead-end choice. There's no change in that perception right now. As a result, it is not easy for China to obtain the level of cooperation we expect regarding the issue of sending North Korean troops to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. I think we need to be clearly aware of that.

[Anchor]
Chairman Kim Jong-un also recently inspected an ICBM base, and since ICBM can attack the US mainland, isn't the US inevitably sensitive? What kind of deliberate move should be considered to be aimed at the United States?

[Leave]
That's right. When the modifier strategy is added, most of it is a message aimed at the United States. In any case, the U.S. presidential election is only two weeks away, and now we have no idea whether Trump will be re-elected president or vice president Harris. However, I think there are two messages from North Korea to the United States. No matter which administration enters, our advancement of nuclear force will continue. Even if we negotiate, we will not negotiate in the same way as we did in the past. We will not negotiate in a way that we concede unilaterally. We negotiate on the condition that we are thoroughly recognized as a nuclear power. I've been sending that message.

In my view, these are scenes that North Korea is trying to highlight while strengthening its nuclear deterrence and continuing to send the message that North Korea is different from before to the U.S. presidential candidates.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Professor Eul-chul, who is the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University. Thank you.