[News Now] North Korea, "Final Final Edition ICBM"...When will the troops be deployed to the battlefield?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Kim Geum-hyuk, former policy adviser to the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs (2012 North Korean defector)

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea said that the ICBM launched yesterday is the latest Hwasong-19 type. At the same time, he claimed that it was the "final ICBM." Let's talk with Kim Geum-hyuk, a former North Korean defector policy adviser at the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs. Welcome. They say it's the final version, but what do you mean it's complete?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
First of all, the warhead part of the Hwaseong-19 type is considerably thicker than that of the Hwaseong-18 type. And it's clear that there have been technological advances in range and in many ways. That's why I think North Korea has declared that it is the final final version in that sense, there is nothing more to develop in the future. However, if we look closely, we can see some parts that are still immature.

Because there needs to be something fundamentally different from Type 18 to call it the final final version, but increasing the weight of the warhead or increasing the range is a technically sufficient part that can be solved, and what we must check is whether the warhead has secured the technology to go up into the atmosphere and re-enter the atmosphere. The question that we have to look into is that North Korea should show it to the international community.

However, the North Korean video released this time also did not show its re-entry into the atmosphere. Of course, it may have been hidden on purpose or it may not be disclosed because it still does not have such technology, but that is why the ROK-US military authorities still judge that it is not a direct threat to the United States in many ways.

And the second one is this missile. Didn't we tell you about the TEL on the last broadcast? It has a 12-axis TEL. To put it simply, 12 axes means there are 12 wheels. But this time, the missile was loaded onto the 11-axis, the 11-axis TEL that had previously launched the Hwasong-18. I think this 11th axis also has a technical problem, so I couldn't reveal it this time.

[Anchor]
The 11-axis launcher itself was unveiled, but it can be assumed that it was not used as disclosed in the Hwasong-19 launch. As you explained earlier, it would be nice if you could show me a picture of the Hwasong-19 type, but the tip became a little lumpy. What does that mean?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
What we can intuitively see is that the warhead is, after all, the warhead.

[Anchor]
You put more warheads in it?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
That's right. It doesn't contain one nuclear warhead, for example, but it can contain two, three, or as many as five. The intention is to maximize the explosive power, that is, the power of nuclear weapons, by putting several nuclear warheads. In fact, such a multi-warhead is a technology often used by Russia, and the United States also has multi-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles, so it can be evaluated as a technological advancement in that area.

[Anchor]
So, because it is intertwined with the time of sending troops to Russia, did you bring any Russian technology? This was the point of view, but it can be seen as a stage that cannot be concluded yet?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
That's right. So one of the technologies that North Korea urgently needs to bring from Russia is the warhead re-entry technology I just mentioned. But North Korea didn't disclose it. In addition, we cannot yet confirm that North Korea has brought the technology from Russia, given that there is still no solid information to believe that Russia has handed over the technology to North Korea, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

[Anchor]
Kim Joo-ae came to the site of the ICBM launch. It's been a bit rare recently, but what does Kim Joo-ae want to show North Koreans to the site of an ICBM launch?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
It is explained that the ICBM power that is currently being told to North Koreans is the last bastion for the protection of the regime. In a way, taking Kim Joo-ae to the scene where the most important weapon used to protect the regime is test-fired means that Kim Joo-ae appears in every such groundbreaking incident, assisting his father Kim Jong-un, and taking the leadership class step by step as the successor.

You have to take a good look at that picture because the composition of the picture when all North Korean media currently report Kim Jong-un puts Kim Jong-un at the center and places other subjects. However, if you look at the photos in the Rodong Sinmun since Kim Joo-ae appeared and started, even though Kim Jong-un is at the center, sometimes putting Kim Jong-un and Kim Joo-ae at the center at the same time, there is no perfect center, right? In that case, it is correct to think that Kim Joo-ae is using it as a kind of effect to imprint that he is Kim Jong-un's successor.

[Anchor]
When Chairman Kim Jong-un became the successor, was there such a device in his childhood?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
Kim Jong-un has various traumas when he becomes a successor. Because the lack of sufficient succession classes was a number of trauma or rumors he had in the early days of his administration. In 2009, Kim Jong-un began to be recognized within North Korea as the official successor, and it was only in 2008 that North Korea began to be recognized internally, that is, within the high-ranking bureaucracy.

And it was only in early 2012, after Kim Jong-il's death that he rose to official status, that in the end, the time that he was released to the public as a successor was crucially very little. And there weren't many public activities. Therefore, it is true that in the early days of his administration, there were complaints or various concerns about whether the young Kim Jong-un could lead the country properly, and he came to this place by purging numerous times to overcome it.

Therefore, Kim Jong-un seems to have decided that it would be helpful to repeatedly expose the residents from a very young age to imprint them as successors and demonstrate their abilities in order not to follow such a footsteps.

[Anchor]
You'll want to make him a ready successor, he explains that this speculation is possible. There are many speculations about whether Kim Joo-ae is the successor of Kim Jong-un. Rep. Park Ji-won, who served as the head of the National Intelligence Service, also speculated about this. Let's hear what you're talking about.

[Anchor]
It is only a speculation now, but the current NIS chief has made several such analyses, saying that the successor seems to be the right one, but it does not seem to be Park Ji-won personally. It's a guess that there's a son.

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
There may be a number of personal thoughts. Since Park Ji-won also served as the head of the National Intelligence Service, I think he said so with his own valid grounds and analysis data. What many North Korean experts are saying the same thing now is that North Korea cannot handle the confusion that may arise if it has a son and hides him as a successor at some point, as Park Jie-won mentioned.

In other words, didn't Kim Joo-ae first appear at this time about two years ago? Since this time two years ago, he has already received some recognition as a successor at home and abroad, and various detailed works are underway, especially for North Koreans to recognize him as a successor.

However, in the process, my son suddenly appeared, and it is not justifiable to say that I am the successor from now on, and considering the various legacies that Kim Joo-ae has built up so far, it is completely incomparable. That's why such logic is less probable.

On the contrary, most scholars say that it is correct to not be able to present it for various reasons, even if you have a son. In particular, if you look at the expression that the current Rodong Sinmun uses to carry Kim Joo-ae and Kim Jong-un, it also uses the expression Hyangdoja, and in the past, the North Korean Rodong Sinmun used words that seemed to imply the status of the successor when Kim Jong-il became the successor and Kim Jong-un became the successor, but it repeats the same pattern. In view of those things, let me tell you that Kim Joo-ae is at the top of the list of successors, to some extent, was a fact that we had to accept.

[Anchor]
You think it's getting solidified to some extent, and the part that North Korea is most concerned about right now is the issue of sending troops to Russia, but the Ukrainian government has released the names of three North Korean generals sent to Russia. It would be nice if you could show it in a graphic way. The three generals are like this. Kim Young-bok, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, Ri Chang-ho, director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, and Shin Geum-chul, the Maj. Gen. of the People's Army, have released three names, and who is the key among them?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
Many media are paying attention to Kim Young-bok. In fact, I think that Lee Chang-ho may be a person that Kim Jong-un trusts more than Kim Young-bok. Kim Young-bok is now attracting the attention of our media because of his position. Since he served as the commander of the Storm Corps and is now the deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, he is paying attention because of his high status and status as a public official, and Lee Chang-ho, who was unveiled this time, is also a public official.

And at the same time, he is the director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau and the deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army. In other words, it can be seen that Kim Young-bok has the same status as Kim Young-bok. However, if I can briefly tell you the history of Lee Chang-ho, it will be in 2020 that I put on a star. In other words, I became a general in 2020, and after several promotions in about four years, I became a three-star general.

[Anchor]
You're a person who's emerged recently.

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
From a common sense point of view, the fact that it took four years to get three stars means that it is a very unconventional greeting and that the number of stars has increased one by one a year. In particular, one of the reasons why we should pay attention to Lee Chang-ho is a person who is on the independent sanctions against North Korea stipulated by the South Korean government.

Because he's been the head of the Reconnaissance General Bureau since about two years ago. Since then, North Korea's hacking and large-scale cyberattacks have been mainly carried out, and this is the person who led the process behind it, so we are paying attention now.

Especially isn't the current Russia-Ukraine war an era of drone warfare? North Korea is not used to such drone warfare. And it's much weaker than Russia in a number of technical areas where drones can be used on the battlefield.

In other words, sending a reconnaissance director to Russia in this situation means that North Korea can learn the drone warfare technologies used by Russia in the future and use them for its strategy against South Korea, so we should pay attention to them. I think we need to look closely at every move in the future.

[Anchor]
North Korea is really putting all its life and death into sending troops to Russia right now if it sent three generals, not just the military, right?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
That's right. We've just sent two certificates. According to what is known now, 12,000 troops are usually the size of one division because the number of troops dispatched is 12,000. Then, one division is called a major general in North Korea, and we are called brigadier general, and it is common practice for one star to lead.

But there are quite dangerous situations on our part because two three-star listings open up the possibility of sending additional troops in the future, and not just sending troops, but also various military alliances between Russia and North Korea.

[Anchor]
There are also various videos in a situation where the North Korean military has already been deployed, there have been many rumors, and such videos, which are believed to be North Korean soldiers, have been released online, drawing attention. Let's watch the video first and talk about it.

[Anchor]
This is a video that is believed to be the North Korean military. Let me reiterate that the authenticity of this video has not been confirmed. First of all, I want to talk about the possibility that the video is true, but based on the way you speak, what do you think?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
I think we need a little more information to find out whether that video is true or not. Various conditions or grounds are scattered in fragments, so it will take time to collect them. However, first of all, if we evaluate that video itself, the words and speech used by soldiers in the video are definitely North Korean.

And I use the expression that I just saw a destroyed Ttangk or an armoured vehicle, but that Ttangk means that we are a tank, but North Korea is called Ttangk. In other words, there is a little possibility of manipulation that terms used only by North Korean soldiers used only in North Korea have appeared frequently. I don't think I can manipulate it in such detail, so when I look at the video itself, I think it's quite likely that it's a North Korean soldier.

And there were some news reports that could support the authenticity of this video. Because of course, we have to figure out the authenticity of it, but wasn't there a few days ago that the advance team entered Ukraine, most of them were killed and one survived?

All of these have been further disclosed as supporting such reports, and if true, not only are the various battles currently taking place in Ukraine very badly against the North Korean military, but as we all predicted, the various equipment and supplies currently provided to the North Korean military are not going well, and as that soldier mentioned, the situation in which he orders to charge recklessly could lead to more casualties.

[Anchor]
That's what I'm saying. The authenticity of this video has not been confirmed, but there is a high probability that it is true, so if it is concluded to be true, it means that they will be put in without giving weapons. If this is true, wouldn't they be fighting in a very poor situation?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
That's right. In fact, it is already well known that the various supply conditions in the Russia-Ukraine war, especially the Russian frontline infantry, are in. The Russian military is currently unable to supply various supplies and equipment to the Russian military. As a result, there were many cases where the Russian army just surrendered to the Ukrainian army because they didn't have guns.

Then, when asked if there were any signs of improvement just because the North Korean military was deployed, there were no opportunities to improve, so I wonder if the North Korean military is also going through various supply shortages that Russian frontline infantry have to go through. 12,000 troops have been dispatched now, but I think there will be more casualties and more additional dispatch.

[Anchor]
A North Korean defector from the Storm Corps said this in a media interview. The Storm Corps is a unit that has been tasked with assassination and destruction of facilities, but can it produce results in such modern warfare and missile firing? He was questioning me.

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
That's right. One of the special features of the Storm Corps, especially the Light Infantry Brigade, is a tactic to quickly penetrate with a very simple weapon, conceal and cover up well, and come down the mountainous terrain to disturb and hit the rear. But as the anchor said, isn't it mostly a field in Ukraine right now? There is no mountain, no place to hide. And it's a situation where you can't even defend yourself because you only carry very, very simple weapons. I think it's a fact that everyone can admit that it's a very poor situation.

[Anchor]
Finally, if North Korea sends up to three generals now, it seems that they have prepared very specifically for sending troops to Russia and have many plans in the future, but this dispatch is not the end but the beginning, isn't there? How much do you expect North Korea to send troops in the future?

[Kim Geum-hyuk]
Of course, since I am not a military expert here, it is difficult to tell you the exact size of the troops, but about 80,000 to 100,000 additional troops will be sent. And those 80,000 to 100,000 numbers are the number of troops that Russia needs right now. That's why it's a basic judgment that North Korea will replace most of the shortfall in troops needed by Russia.

In the future, what Kim Jong-un wants in this war is a blood alliance with Russia, and in a way, North Korea is likely to sacrifice more North Korean soldiers because it is the ∀ of obtaining various means from Russia to strengthen its authoritarian power in North Korea.

The bigger problem is that soldiers are dying as soldiers, but their bereaved families and those remaining in North Korea are forced to die without receiving any reasonable compensation or compensation from the North Korean authorities, which is why they are sacrificed and what kind of war they participated in.

[Anchor]
This is also worrying about what kind of provocation Kim Jong-un will plan to find the justification for sending troops. So far, I've talked with Kim Geum-hyuk, former policy adviser at the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs. Thank you.