[Issue ON] "You don't give me weapons and put me in the battlefield".There's a video of the North Korean military estimation.

■ Host: Lee Ha-rin, Jeong Jin-hyung, Anchor
■ Starring: Kim Dae-young, Researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.

[Anchor]
A video has been released that is believed to be a North Korean soldier deployed to Russia.

[Anchor]
He looks seriously injured. The man claimed that Russia had driven him to death without giving him weapons. Let's take a closer look at it with an expert on related news. Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, is in the studio now. Welcome.

[Anchor]
We prepared a video. Let's watch the video first and talk about it.

[Anchor]
We cannot confirm the authenticity of this video, but it was released as a video that is believed to be a North Korean soldier anyway. It was released on Telegram in Ukraine. How did you see it? I think you can definitely hear the North Korean accent.

[Daeyoung Kim]
In Ukraine or Russia, as part of psychological warfare, it is called cognitive warfare that makes fake information believe as if it were real. So I'm carrying out a lot of various operations on social media. So I wondered if this was a deepfake video.

[Anchor]
That's why it's a forged video.

[Daeyoung Kim]
So I watched it 20 to 30 times this morning and kept doing this. Then, I also delivered it to the North Korean defectors around me and asked them what they thought, and they seem to be North Koreans. And he said that he is presumed to be from Pyeongan Island, so we have to consider whether it is true or not, but personally, it seems that more than 50% is certain. In particular, when I look at the accent aspect, I think it's North Korean.

[Anchor]
Then, if you look at this, Russia did not spy or give weapons. They claimed that they were driven to death, but it seems that we need to accept this as a fact.

[Daeyoung Kim]
So if you look closely at the Ukraine war, there are a lot of cases like that, especially on the Russian side. Even in the case of the Russian military, there are many cases where the equipment that needs to be supported in case of a charge, such as a tank or an armoured vehicle, continues to be destroyed, and in fact, there are many cases where they charge with their bare bodies.

That's why this comment itself seems a little reliable. Another thing is that in the case of this important unit, especially the Russian military, equipment support is often very limited unless it is an important unit. So even they come out with rifles they used in World War II. As the Russian military is in such a serious supply crisis, we need to see whether it is true or not, but there is a question of whether we can give the North Korean military proper equipment.

[Anchor]
If you look at the contents now, there were 40 troops, and they all said they became soldiers and survived alone, but there were reports about them before. Even then, I couldn't confirm the authenticity, so how do you view this part?

[Daeyoung Kim]
It seems that the news that came out before is now turning into a fact. What is more worrisome in the future is that there are no videos such as skirmishes or such, but there is a very high possibility that there will be drone videos of the North Korean troops attacked by the Ukrainian side as early as next week.

Then, in fact, the North Korean military's participation in the Ukraine war is virtually official, and then in a way, it completely crosses the red line. So, from the perspective of the Korean government, it seems like this would be very embarrassing if such a situation came.

[Anchor]
What this presumptive North Korean man claimed, if you look at the video we showed you earlier, Putin will lose this war at the end, didn't he say again? By the way, it is said that the Ukrainian military is armed with the latest weapons, but as this man claims, is there actually a difference in the military's advancement?

[Daeyoung Kim]
It's been a bit serious lately. North Korea has now provided about 8 million shells to Russia. At the beginning of the year, when the Ukrainian army fired a shell, the Russian army fired about eight rounds. Now it's reduced to a 1:2 ratio. As such, the Russian military is not fighting efficiently.

And on the other hand, in the case of the Ukrainian military, I'll mention it later, but if you look at the weapons we're asking for now, they're asking for defense, not artillery shells, especially surface-to-air missiles. In that sense, the Ukrainian military itself is now second to the Russian military in terms of firepower.

And what we need to watch this video carefully is, of course, we need to check the authenticity further, but I think there was a Korean-speaking person next to us in Ukraine. So when I see him responding so naturally,

[Anchor]
I would have asked questions in Korean as well.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. It seems like there is a good possibility of that.

[Anchor]
You said that Ukraine's modern warfare capabilities are not weak, but in fact, the North Korean military's modern warfare capabilities are inferior.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. In the Cold War, the North Korean military sent military advisers who participated in the Vietnam War, the Middle East War, the African Civil War, and even the Syrian Civil War. But I haven't done that much since the Cold War.

Another problem with the North Korean troops sent to Russia now is that during the Cold War, many North Korean soldiers went to the Soviet Union to study. I went to a military school in the Soviet army and was educated, so I was able to speak Russian, but as the relationship changed from the Soviet Union to Russia, there are not many people who speak Russian now.

The Russian army is also learning Korean now. Next, the dispatched troops from North Korea are also learning Russian. So this communication is actually very important in military operations. In that respect, I think it can be judged to be very vulnerable.

[Anchor]
Regarding this video, as you said, we will have to wait and see for a little while to see whether it is authentic or not, but this content itself is mostly consistent with what Lithuania's non-governmental organizations claimed earlier. How do you see this?

[Daeyoung Kim]
At first, when it came out from an NGO organization, I thought, "Is this from the Ukrainian government as a kind of cognitive awareness?" but when I see the video released today, it seems true. And given that about 40 people have been put in the video, aren't they talking about something related? In that respect, it can be said that it is highly reliable.

[Anchor]
However, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has not yet been deployed to the North Korean military. And the report that the dead were reported is not true, and he denies it like this. Why do you think this is the case?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Since this came from an NGO organization, it seems that there was something wrong with the process of delivering it to President Zelensky. Another thing is that if the North Korean military begins to be deployed in earnest now, President Zelensky will probably change his position.

[Anchor]
Ukrainian President Zelensky will ask South Korea for the weapons aid it wants in an interview. At the same time, I said that the first thing I need is an air defense system. What weapon exactly does this refer to?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Right now, Russian forces are continuing to attack Ukraine's major metropolises, especially civilian areas, using cruise missiles and self-destructive drones. It's not against the military, but against the civilians, so from the Ukrainian side, it's a very painful loss.

Please provide weapons now to intercept such things. Most of them ask for types of surface-to-air missiles, fighter jets flying in the air from the ground, and things like this that can intercept drones. So, some people say a lot that we should support things like Cheonggung, the representative of K-bangsan, but it can be said that it was yesterday. North Korea has launched an ICBM, and in fact, we are also building a Korean missile defense system, so it is not easy to support these missiles.

Because in a way, there can be a hole in our military's fighting power. So what came up is the Hawk surface-to-air missiles that we introduced in the United States in the past. retired weapons Supporting these things is being considered as one option.

[Anchor]
The U.S. side said that you can use it.

[Daeyoung Kim]
[Voiceover] Right, because for example, weapons introduced by the United States or abroad need to get permission from that country's government to transfer them to a third country. So in that respect, the United States seems to have decided to some extent. Another thing we can support is the dog car-type surface-to-air missile that we introduced in France in the past. There are surface-to-air missiles with a short range that individuals can use, and I think these can also be considered as support cards.

[Anchor]
Meanwhile, three North Korean officers who went to Russia are known. It was revealed by the Ukra delegation. I'd like you to show me some graphics. Deputy Chief of General Staff Kim Young-bok, it has already been confirmed. Lee Chang-ho, Director of Reconnaissance General, and Shin Geum-chul, Maj. Gen. of the People's Army, were added. Please explain what kind of person you are with the graphic.

[Daeyoung Kim]
In particular, it seems that Lee Chang-ho, director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, should pay attention. So, the role of the Reconnaissance General Bureau is mainly related to us, and it plays a leading role in threatening the security of the Republic of Korea. However, the fact that Lee Chang-ho, director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, went to the Ukraine war contains the intention of the Reconnaissance General Bureau to learn drones or things like this and use them to us in the future. And in the case of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, we have attempted cyberattacks in Korea several times in the past.

So, it is also seen as a message that North Korea may be in charge of cyberattacks against Ukraine. Another thing is that when the Ukrainian delegation continues to disclose this, it sends a message that Ukraine is monitoring every move of North Korea without realizing it. From that point of view, I predict that the Ukrainian government may be planning terrorism or such for North Korean soldiers in Russia.

[Anchor]
Among the three people we showed you graphically, Lee Chang-ho, director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, explained this person. Shin Geum-cheol is a person who is relatively hidden in the veil. Known as Major General, what mission do you think you'll be performing?

[Daeyoung Kim]
I don't know exactly what role this person is playing in the North Korean military, but if he is enough to take a picture with Kim Jong-un, isn't he close to Kim Jong-un in the North Korean military? When the North Korean military is dispatched now, there will be various cooperation with the Russian side. In this regard, in a way, it seems that he will take on such an important role in cooperation with the Russian military in North Korea.

[Anchor]
Let's talk about the ICBM we launched yesterday. North Korea said it is the latest ICBM, the Hwasong-19, which was launched yesterday. Then, he claimed that it was the final ICBM, but what has changed from the past?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Before the video or photo was initially released, the launch vehicle and the mobile launch vehicle, the TEL, were not 12 axes. So I thought there were 24 tires, but when I saw the photos and videos released, it wasn't 12 axes.

[Anchor]
It's shorter than I thought.

[Daeyoung Kim]
I think I used the existing 11 axes as it is, but the shape of the missile, especially the front one, is also shown in the video, but if you look closely, the front part of the missile seems to be slightly larger than the previous one. So one of the things that North Korea is aiming for now is the flight distance, and the flight distance is the same as last time. The peak height went up more than 1000km.

But if you calculate this as a normal launch, it seems that it can fly more than 10,000 km. That is why it has a range that can hit the eastern or western parts of the United States. [Anchor] You're saying you can cover the whole mainland of the United States, right? [Kim Dae-young] And another problem is that the front part is a little bigger than the previous Mars-18, so isn't it the purpose of carrying several warheads? In particular, it seems that the purpose is to load several nuclear warheads.

However, there is one problem. In the case of ICBMs and long-range missiles that North Korea is talking about now, they have been tested several times, but they have never shown a core performance of re-entry into the atmosphere. So it's still unknown. But one of the things that I'm worried about is, of course, North Korea's dispatch of a lot of troops to Russia is a means of raising some kind of cash, but in a way, it's also aimed at getting Russian military technology. In that sense, we are very concerned about the possibility of Russia supporting the atmospheric re-entry technology in the future.

[Anchor]
The appearance of her daughter Joo-ae accompanying her to the launch site was also eye-catching, and the photo was also released. You looked so young, but Kim Joo-ae's inspection of the test site, what do you mean by this?

[Daeyoung Kim]
According to current estimates, Kim Joo-ae's age is about 11 or 12 years old. But as you know, the fact that an 11-year-old and 12-year-old child wakes up at dawn and goes to shoot a missile with his father like this.

[Anchor]
In Korea, 5th and 6th graders are in the age range.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. I want to tell you that it's very abnormal. However, seeing him accompany him like that, it seems that the purpose of solidifying the position of the successor is great. Another thing is that many experts say, but since Chairman Kim Jong-un's health is actually not very good, it is expected that he is taking such an open step in terms of his successor's class.

[Anchor]
Let's hear the opinion that he may not be the successor. Rep. Park Ji-won of the Democratic Party is talking about. Let's listen to it.

[Anchor]
Kim Joo-ae will not be the successor, but she will have a son separately. What do you think of this opinion?

[Daeyoung Kim]
There are many possibilities, but there are several stories when Kim Jong-un was nominated as a successor during the Kim Jong-il era. Since there have been many such testimonies that he has shown a kind of personality as a leader since he was young, Kim Joo-ae has that personality regardless of his son and daughter. So it's a kind of successor class to continue to show these public events, especially missile launches, and in a way, events that North Korea values.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, we've talked with Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. Thank you for talking today.