■ Starring: Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University
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[Anchor]
Ukrainian President Zelensky has hinted at a preemptive strike against North Korean forces. It has asked the West for long-range weapons aid, and a close aide to Russian President Putin warned that it would be World War III if the U.S. intervened. Let's take a look at Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. Please come in. It's an area close to the Ukrainian border. It is said that about 8,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk, Russia, but there is a saying that 8,000 people seem to be a lot, but this number is only about a week's casualties in Russia.
[Kim Yonghyun]
Starting today, Ukraine's intelligence authorities announced that about 7,000 North Korean troops are gathered at the Ukrainian border, armed with 60mm mortars, night vision goggles and anti-tank missiles. I made the argument like this. But I think we need to check the facts more. From Ukraine's point of view, we're talking about sending troops or saying that the North Korean military will move more aggressively and actively, so we can get support from the West.
In any case, 7000 to 8000 people say that it is similar to the casualties a week ago of Russian troops participating in the battle in Russia, but it is probably correct. Because the battle between Ukraine and Russia is largely a serious battle. So, it seems that it is difficult for either side to make a strong advance. They are fighting each other in positions like whether it is a shelling war, but more casualties occur at that time. Therefore, it is said that the number of North Korean troops dispatched is between 7,000 and 8000, but the number is very high in the war in Ukraine. It is difficult to say this, and the front lines are so long. Therefore, that number of North Korean soldiers is not the number that can completely change the situation of the war.
[Anchor]
As you have said, Ukraine's claims are continuously coming out, and President Zelensky also said this. I know the location of the North Korean military. But if you know the location, as you said, if you know the location, you can strike if you know the location. What do you think about the possibility of another such fierce battle in the Kursk region?
[Kim Yonghyun]
What it was like to know the location of the North Korean military is that the North Korean military is now deployed at the forefront, and this is how the Ukrainian military is not looking at it. So to some extent, President Zelensky is also saying that he's going through this kind of process now, whether it's a month of adaptation training from the front or a month of local language training, or a month of operational training. So it's hard to say that we're in a close race right now.
That's why we need long-range missiles to preemptively strike the North Korean military first. So it's like asking for Western missiles and things like that first, so I'll make a preemptive attack and destroy the North Korean military. So, the North Korean military is currently located in the Kursk region a little further back than it is currently deployed at the front line, and the Ukrainian military may be able to locate it through intelligence activities. It's about hitting there.
[Anchor]
As you said, President Zelensky continues to appeal that Western long-range weapons are needed. On the other hand, a close aide to President Putin of Russia warned that if the United States intervened, it would be World War III. What choice does the American West have?
[Kim Yonghyun]
So, the reason why the dispatch of the North Korean People's Army is important at this point is that if the North Korean military crosses the current front line of Ukraine and enters Ukrainian territory to conduct operations, NATO or Western troops can send them. If that happens, the war will be prolonged and the war intensifies, and the U.S. will participate indirectly, and this is the worst case scenario. This is to say that the war will inevitably evolve into an international war, and from Russia's point of view, if the U.S. or a third country directly supports or dispatches Ukrainian troops in a situation where North Korean troops have been dispatched, this will inevitably lead to an international war.
In that sense, they are trying to further limit the U.S. role in the Russia-Ukraine war while strongly pressuring the West. Also, isn't the U.S. presidential election process right now? There are only a few days left.Even if the presidential election is over, there may be reorganization of the presidential election or various aftereffects for the time being, so the U.S. cannot actively move in an environment. Therefore, during this period, Russia will actively talk about its position and hold back the United States.
[Anchor]
Various theories about the North Korean military continue to emerge. Some people say that I'm still getting an education. There are also claims that they have already engaged with Ukrainian forces at least twice. What do you think? There is also a view that the role of the North Korean military is merely bait, so what role do you expect it to be?
[Kim Yonghyun]
Looking at the current situation, the evidence, circumstances, or information that the fighting was directly conducted right now is not accurately confirmed. So no matter what troops are sent, they can't go straight into battle on that front. Rather, it requires adaptation in the field and various military supply problems must be resolved, and this battle area is completely different from the battlefield environment in North Korea.
That's why it's necessary to adapt to it, so I don't think we can see it like this that the North Korean military is directly entering the place where the battle is currently taking place. Rather, at this point, the Kursk region itself is not Ukrainian territory, it is Russian territory, originally. Because the Ukrainian army is advancing and taking control of this, there is a possibility that it will be used here to defend against the advance of the Ukrainian army or to restore the current Russian territory that the Ukrainian army is in. I think we should look at it like this. At this point, there is no accurate information or circumstances yet about the North Korean military fighting the Ukrainian army at the forefront of the battle.
[Anchor]
In the midst of this, Ukraine has released a list of three generals who accompanied the North Korean military. These are Vice Chief of Staff Kim Young-bok, Reconnaissance General Director Lee Chang-ho, and Maj. Gen. Shin Geum-chul of the People's Army. From their perspective, should I say that North Korea is working hard on this war?
[Kim Yonghyun]
Yes, it's on the screen right now.In the case of Vice Chief of Staff Kim Young-bok, Ma can be regarded as the second-in-command of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. You can say that Kim Young-bok is the working-level head of the Supreme Command of the Korean military's operations, and he is also the head of the Storm Corps and the commander of the Special Operations Forces, so he is currently the highest-ranking officer in the field of operations in North Korea. Ri Chang-ho, director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, also said, "If we consider the position of the Reconnaissance General Director as us, we will deal with the NIS or the intelligence part." So wouldn't the Reconnaissance General Bureau or the intelligence sector play a very important role in the war in Ukraine?
Shin Geum-chul is not a well-known figure, but he may be the top commander in charge of 7,000 to 8,000 North Korean troops there. Therefore, generals such as lieutenant general or major general of the North Korean military directly command the battle there. Or, the North Korean military's role in the current location is quite important to North Korea, which is putting a lot of effort into the role of the North Korean military in terms of dispatch, and Russia's position is also very important to the relationship with the North Korean military.
[Anchor]
As you said, these generals are the highest-ranking officials in North Korea, but who will have the command of operations when they go to the Russian battlefield? I don't think these generals will have it, what do you think?
[Kim Yonghyun]
In the past, in the Korean War, the People's Support Army of China formed the Joint Chiefs of Staff with the North Korean People's Army against the UN Army. So that's what happened in the middle of the war, and the commander of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was a Chinese general named Fang Deok-hwa. So, the North Korean People's Army did about the vice-commander, and it was the same even though it was at war in North Korea. So, if you look at it now, it should be considered that the North Korean military has 7,000 to 8,000 people currently playing an auxiliary role. In that sense, it is not easy to operate independently there. In various ways, it is highly likely to play an auxiliary role in Russian combat and Russian operations, so it is not easy to conduct direct and independent operations.
[Anchor]
As the situation turns out, Ukraine is also asking our government to help Ukraine. Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol said he is reviewing all scenarios. When and in what format will we come to a conclusion?
[Kim Yonghyun]
So I think it's a very important diplomatic statement to say that we're reviewing all scenarios. So, the Minister of Foreign Affairs or the Korean government cannot say, for example, that it is a specific weapons system or give it to Ukraine. So it seems that the Korean government will probably take a step-by-step approach, but I think we should pay attention to the results of the U.S. presidential election.
Another thing is that we will respond by looking at all these things, such as whether the North Korean People's Army is at the current level of participation in the war or what North Korea provides to Russia, I think we should look at it like this. Right now, we're sending more non-combat things at this point on a humanitarian level or in the field of defense or cladding, or in the general military field, but these can be changed in stages. Defensive weapon systems, for example, Cheongung-2 or so, are defensive intercept systems.
Things like this can go. Next, I think the Korean government can support such things as whether it is an aggressive weapons system. That is a very cautious part, which requires a very cautious approach for our government. So, in my opinion, the Korean government has no choice but to worry about it at the present time at a level that does not cross the defensive weapon system.
[Anchor]
If you look at the internal situation in North Korea, the food shortage continues to come out. The NIS also said that Chairman Kim Jong-un raised the level of security in preparation for an assassination. How do you see those situations now?
[Kim Yonghyun]
North Korea's top leadership is always worried about the assassination. So that might be a given for security. Isn't it true that the dispatch of troops is now or that the situation on the Korean Peninsula itself is intensifying considerably? Inter-Korean relations are also a battleground for the Gangdae River, and overall, North Korea is raising the level of provocations, and in this atmosphere, it will naturally raise the level of security. We need to approach it on this level. Anxiety about the assassination is probably more persistent than inside North Korea, but if you look at Israel and Iran or the Hamas war, Israel's attacks on Hamas supporters are very persistent. With these things in mind, it's probably an approach problem, I think we should look at it like this.
[Anchor]
Perhaps because of that atmosphere, the provocation did not stop. We've started testing intercontinental ballistic missiles and ICBMs. He added a fancy modifier here. You added the latest, super-strong, and complete modifiers. How did you see it?
[Kim Yonghyun]
We launched Hwasong-19 this time. This time, North Korea has been continuing to launch ICBMs. It's coming out on the screen.E. If you look at it this time, it showed an altitude of more than 7,000 kilometers and a striking distance of about 1,000 kilometers. So, in fact, from a normal angle, the hitting area across the United States has been completely shown this time, and you can see it like this. So for North Korea, this time with the Hwasong-19 type, North Korea is now saying that the ICBM has achieved its goal perfectly.
So, we need to look at the details of it in more detail, but North Korea is very willing to express its confidence to the outside world in various situations. From this point of view, I think I'm using the expression "complete" or "best." I think we need to analyze more specific parts related to the future launch of the Hwasong-19 type and check the contents accurately.
[Anchor]
Chairman Kim Jong-un's daughter Joo-ae, who had been a little quiet, appeared at the site of the ICBM launch. Where do you interpret the background?
[Kim Yonghyun]
Kim Jooae's appearance is intermittent right now.Ma is still alive and well with North Korea's top leadership. And Chairman Kim Jong-un is very much in control of the North Korean system, and the succession structure goes to the third generation, so it goes to the fourth generation. Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un. Then, the successor could also go to the child of Chairman Kim Jong-un. However, I don't think I can conclude that Kim Joo-ae is the successor right now, and I think she could be one of the successors. Also, Chairman Kim Jong-un may have a son. In addition, it seems that Kim Joo-ae has been appearing since the age of 10, but there has never been a socialist country that exposes a confirmed successor to the outside world so quickly. That's why I think we don't have to look at the parts about Kim Joo-ae because we're too small.
[Anchor]
It was analyzed that the ICBM Hwasung-19 type launched this time would be a multi-warhead. If this happens, can we say that technology is further advanced?
[Kim Yonghyun]
That's right. If you look at the shape of the Hwasong-19 type, the warhead is not very sharp, but rather lumped. The story is that there's a possibility that there's a multiple warhead in there. So it's not just one warhead, it looks like there's one warhead now, but there are three or four warheads in it. So that means that at some point, it's separated, and about three or four nuclear weapons can fly to other areas.
What this story is about is that interception itself is very difficult, then. So, nuclear weapons show enormous destructive power even if only one of the four falls into a specific facility or area. Also, I think the perfect distance to fly to the United States has been confirmed this time, so wouldn't it be very burdensome for the United States? So it's a huge technological evolution from a strategic point of view that a warhead is one and that three or four separate later in the middle.
[Anchor]
Is the technological evolution due to Russia's help?
[Kim Yonghyun]
So, some people are watching it now, but I think we need to see more of that. North Korea is not the first to talk about multiple warheads. I didn't describe Type 19 as a multiple warhead, but North Korea brought up the multiple warheads and North Korea has such capabilities. The only thing about this is whether it's a multiple warhead related to nuclear weapons is whether it can explode in search of an accurate landing site, and then it goes out from the atmosphere to the stratosphere and then re-enters from the stratosphere to the atmosphere, and those technological parts that can be perfect can show that technological progress much more stably if Russia's technology has gone into it. I think we should interpret it in this way.
[Anchor]
Finally, let's talk about the South Korean broadcast. Seeing that we actually recorded it, I even thought that people wouldn't be able to live. Wolf cries and ghosts come out all day long, and Paju Mayor also appealed to stop. Isn't there a realistic alternative?
[Kim Yonghyun]
In the case of Paju Mayor, I sometimes see him because he is a graduate student at the Graduate School of Public Administration. I sometimes meet him, but he's serious enough to appeal to me. In particular, there are problems in border areas such as mothers, pregnant women, and pregnant cows. It's been a serious situation for two or three months now, but this problem should be solved now if we judge it in terms of our people's lives. So, let's make sure that North Korea doesn't do that broadcast right now, and we don't do it either. And I think it's the same for balloons and flyers.
This is a humanitarian matter. So, I think the Korean government needs to actively appeal this issue to the Korean government or the North Korean authorities. It is also true that the North Korean authorities are also more actively deteriorating inter-Korean relations in this area.Ma has come to a point where it is necessary to organize more when it comes to broadcasting to North Korea or South Korea. That's what I think.
[Anchor]
The government should step up?
[Kim Yonghyun]
That's right. The government can't help but do it only on our side, and North Korea can't do it either. It's not easy to do wisdom that both sides can't do.I have to look for it.
[Anchor]
Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. Thank you for talking today.
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