U.S. presidential election that just went up...What are the choices of American voters?

U.S. presidential election that has just risen...Start voting in Dixville Notch
The results of the U.S. presidential election around the world...Harris vs Trump
Start voting in order from the east of the United States to the west
U.S. Presidential Election Time Depends on Weeks...12-15 hours
Vote counting in some states at the height of some state polls

[Anchor]
The U.S. presidential election has begun to select a president to lead the U.S. for the next four years.

Let's talk about the voting progress with Yoon Hyunsook from the international department.

How are you?

The U.S. presidential election has begun in earnest.

How's the voting going now?

[Reporter]
Voting for the presidential election began at midnight US time, at 2 pm US time, starting with Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
Right now, voting is in full swing in the eastern part of the country.

The West hasn't started voting yet.

The United States is so large that there are four time zones within a country, and voting times and methods vary from state to state.

It takes 25 hours from the start of the U.S. presidential election to the deadline.

Voting will be sequentially conducted from east to west. All votes will be finalized tomorrow afternoon in our time.

Because votes are cast sequentially, they are already counted or the results of exit polls are announced at the height of other state votes.

The results of the Dixville notch, which was actually the first to vote, have already come out. Trump vs Harris 3-3 tie.

I think it's a scene that symbolizes this presidential election, which showed a fierce race until the end.

[Anchor]
U.S. election, can you briefly explain the characteristics of the election?

[Reporter]
indirect election/winner-take-all/state electorsIt is an indirect election, a winner's monopoly, if summarized into two keywords characteristic
.

The U.S. presidential election is an indirect election structure in which electors are elected next month, not today's president.

In addition, the U.S. presidential election also adopts a winner-take-all system in which the party with one more vote wins all the votes cast in the state.

Due to these characteristics, there are often cases where people lose even if they receive a lot of votes overall.

5 times all time, 2016 Hillary vs Trump 2000 El Gore vs George. That's the case with W Bush.

Hillary and El Gore had more votes overall, but failed to enter the White House after falling behind in the number of electors.

Harris 226 vs Trump 219
prediction of electorates excluding competing statesThere are a total of 538 electors in the
election, and the one who secures 270 electors first can declare victory.

Currently, the red side is dominant by Trump and the blue side is dominant by Harris.

Harris is currently expected to secure 226, while Trump is expected to secure 219.

There are seven contending states, three upper rust belts, and four lower sun belts, and 93 electors are caught in seven contending states. In the end, the winner will be determined by how much of this contested state electorates will be taken.

[Anchor]
In this presidential election, it is showing a super-confrontation until the end. How are you predicting the situation?

[Reporter]
Local media say the difference in approval ratings between the two candidates is a razor blade.

The gap is not as big as a sheet of paper and a razor blade.

There is no prediction that a special candidate will win a landslide victory, and there are many polls.

In fact, if you look at the national approval rating survey released just before the election, the candidate gap is not tied or the difference is not large.

The Economist's Forecast Survey, a British weekly magazine, also found that the two candidates had an expected 50:50 victory rate until the end.

There are a series of reports in the country that it is the first time in 60 years.

[Anchor]
What's the scenario for both candidates, Harris and Trump, to get a clear win? In the end, it will be 7 competing states that will decide the winner or loser.

[Reporter]
The state of the race is also unpredictable, itself.

According to a poll released at the end of the election, Trump wins with four wins, two draws and one loss, Harris wins with four wins, two draws and one loss, and there are completely different predictions.

Average of polls in seven contending states in the New York Times
Let's take another look at the average of polls in contending states compiled by the New York Times on the day of the
election.

If you look at the winning equation for each candidate, Harris has to grab the Rust Belt, three places unconditionally.

This is a place that used to be strongly supported by the Democratic Party, so it was called the Blue Will, the Blue Wall, but it turned to Trump's support in 2016 and is classified as a rival state.

Securing 44 electors in these three places will increase the possibility of declaring victory.

Pennsylvania, which is called the biggest battleground for this presidential election, is at stake in 19 electors, and if you miss it, it will be painful for Harris. Magic number 270 becomes difficult to achieve.

In the case of Trump, securing Pennsylvania is the top priority. After securing Pennsylvania, if Georgia and North Carolina are caught out of the seven competing states, they will be able to achieve a magic number that will drop 270 degrees.

Because Pennsylvania is this important, both candidates went all out on their last campaign trail.

[Anchor]
What are the keys to victory that all candidates need to win?

[Reporter]
If there's something you have to catch to catch the two candidates, Harris can pick "white female turnout" and Trump can pick "young male turnout."

White women gave Democrats a bitter taste with Republican support in 2016 and 2020.

Even when Hillary challenged for the first female president in 2016, give more votes to Trump than to a white woman Hillary. Trump leads by 7% in 2020

But this presidential election is different.

As Harris highlights issues of "abortion rights" and "pregnancy suspension," which are sensitive to women, the gap is reduced or rather high in various polls.

When asked about important issues to voters, the economy and immigration are ranked in order in the overall poll, and women consider this issue so important that abortion rights are ranked second after economic prices
It is also possible to explain that the gathering of white women in
will affect Harris' victory.

Trump's 'young male turnout' is the key to victory. Harris is supported by all young voters under the age of 30 in
, but Trump prevails when narrowing down male voters. 11%P higher than Harris.

Strong support, but the problem is that the actual turnout is not high. The chances of winning depend on how much they bring to the polling station and how much they gather.

During Trump's presidential election, he continued to make macho remarks to catch the so-called U.S. version of Lee Dae-nam, appearing on podcasts that young men usually listen to, and trying to attract support from YouTubers.

Young people have been less influential than the elderly, but the popularity of young people in this year's presidential election is also a major variable.

[Anchor]
Again, hidden supporters like the so-called "Shy Trump" could be an important variable for the party's victory,

Both candidates are aiming for 'Shy Trump' and 'Hidden Harris' that are not in the polls, right?

[Reporter]
Yes, after all, it's important for each candidate to have at least one more of their supporters come to the polls.

First of all, if you look at Shy Trump first, white people from low-income families belong, and I'm interested in proving their power again this time.

There are many observations that its power may have decreased a lot compared to the past.

Analysts say that no one is shy about supporting Trump anymore because he has already run for Trump for the third time and once in power. In fact, Trump supporters are also actively expressing their support.

In particular, pollsters, which did not predict the 2016 Trump storm, say they have reflected hidden Trump supporters' votes in the polls through various techniques and statistical adjustments.

However, some argue that there are still many hidden Trump supporters that the polls have not captured.

Many of Trump's supporters are not actively responding to the polls, arguing that the actual votes and the results of the polls do not match.

[Anchor]
Rather, we should pay more attention to 'Hidden Harris' in this presidential election, and there are also high voices like this?

[Reporter]
It is analyzed that there are white women who have raised Hidden Harris and white women, but cannot openly support Harris because of Trump's family or partners around him.

Democrats are aggressive in targeting this 'Hidden Harris'.

Recently, Julia Roberts created an advertisement targeting Hidden Harris, which encourages female voters in conservative votes to vote for themselves.

A note campaign is also spreading to female voters in support of Harris. These are notes with the message,

, 'Women to women'. It is spreading around traditional Republican strong areas, public toilets and women's changing rooms in rival states.

Harris has hidden supporters, and the weaknesses of the polls.

Just as it took pollsters time in 2016 to capture Trump's base, they argue that it also takes time to capture Harris' base.

It's because it's only been about 100 days since Biden resigned and Harris became a candidate.

Those who predict Harris' dominance even argue that there is a "shay Harris" beyond "Hidden Harris."

Nicky Haley's supporters of the Republican Party, who typically competed with Trump, are typically classified as potential "Shy Harris."

[Anchor]
Voting will continue until tomorrow at our time.

When will the outline of the victory come out?

[Reporter]
It will take some time to 'declare victory',
In the past
it was outlined late at night or the next day, but this time, it will take time to declare victory because there are so many early voters until the last minute.

The speed of vote counting by mail is expected to be the key in the event of a very close race.

Early voter turnout is high again in this election. As of the morning of the 4th, more than 78 million people
In the case of mail-in voting among
early voting, it takes a considerable amount of time only for the tally itself, such as some states even accepting the stamp on the day of the election.

Counting also takes a lot of time. In the case of mail-in voting, the final election results will inevitably be delayed because the sealed envelope must be opened, classified by constituency, and the voter signature must be checked additionally.

Especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the most important contending states, vote counting by mail only begins on election day. It is expected to take more than four days for the results of the vote to be counted.

Four days to decide on Pennsylvania's winner back in 2020. President Biden's election will only be confirmed immediately after this result is released.

The Associated Press expects Arizona to take up to 13 days to produce results among competing states.

It will take more time if we go to the recount because it's so close. It took more than a month to determine the final winner of the 2000 Florida State recount, when he faced his son Bush and El Gore.

[Anchor]
Early voting, especially mail voting, is important because the situation may be reversed.

The candidate who was leading in the early stages of the vote count is overtaken after the early vote count, right?

[Reporter]
Yes, since early voting has been supported by the Democratic Party a lot, Republicans used to lead in counting polling stations and then Democratic candidates took the lead after opening the early voting box.

During the last presidential election, there was also a "blue shift" phenomenon in which Trump's so-called red mirage, "Red Mirage," appeared on the night of the election, and Biden came up and reversed after the vote was counted by mail.

It's a situation where we can't easily guarantee what will happen this time.

Unlike in the 2020 presidential election, not only Harris' side but also Trump's side actively encouraged early voting this time.

[Anchor]
What many people are also curious about is whether former President Donald Trump will accept it if Vice President Harris wins.

The U.S. media believe that Trump is likely to disobey the election this time following 2020?

[Reporter]
Yes, Trump, he's already disobeyed the last presidential election.

The day after the last presidential election, Trump declares a surprise presidential victory.

When we didn't even have the outline of the winner yet.

With a surprise early victory, the U.S. presidential steps were completely twisted.

Supporters repeatedly chanted that the victory had been stolen, eventually leading to the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol. Former President Trump also delivered an incitement speech on the same day.

The incident shocked the world beyond the U.S. to the extent that some even say that American democracy was attacked.

Again, the possibility of Trump's defiance of the presidential election is being clarified.

He is vowing to win, but is piling up a stone to disobey the presidential election
Former President Trump, who visited Pennsylvania, the biggest campaign destination in the last weekend of
, has repeatedly raised suspicions of election fraud that fake voters were found in early voting, hinting at the possibility of disobeying a defeat.

The Republican Party has also filed lawsuits related to early voting in Pennsylvania and other states, so confusion could continue even after the vote count.

[Anchor]
Even if there is a presidential election objection, there is a prediction that it will be different from 2020 this time?

[Reporter]
Yes, four years ago, I was embarrassed by the extremely unusual method of declaring an early victory, but unlike four years ago, I used that time as a counter-teacher and prepared a full preparation with the possibility of a recurrence in mind.

There are many restrictions on the fact that Trump is not a sitting president unlike then, and the law has been revised to prepare for it

We have designated it as a special national security event early so that the results of the presidential election held at the National Assembly on January 6th next year cannot be easily blocked.

In order to prevent the recurrence of violence in 2021, a strict security posture will also be activated on the same day.

So far, we've looked at the current status and prospects of the U.S. presidential election with reporter Yoon Hyun-sook.