[News NIGHT] U.S. presidential vote begins...The 7 contestants are playing 'super close'

■ Hosted by: anchor Sung-gyu Moon, anchor Yoo Da-won
■ Starring: Lim Eun-jung, professor of international studies at Gongju National University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNIGHT] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The main vote to elect the 47th president of the United States has begun. The results are drawing more attention as the ultra-close race continues, which is difficult to find a precedent. Let's point out with Lim Eun-jung, a professor of international studies at Gongju National University, what is the forecast of the election situation and the last-minute variable. Welcome, professor. I don't think it's been long since the voting started, but there are some places where the votes have been counted. Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, our correspondent Kwon Jun-ki told us.It's already 3:3.

[Lim Eunjung]
Traditionally, from about 60 years to now, it's the first place that starts at 0 o'clock. It's a symbolic place that seems to open a door, but anyway, it came out like this. Of course, the U.S. presidential election is about taking all the electors that are allocated to each state as we all know, so I remember that there are four electors in New Hampshire, but what about taking them?

[Anchor]
By the way, I heard you're the Democratic Party of Korea's vegetable garden.

[Lim Eunjung]
Relatively, you can see it like that. Traditionally. But anyway, because of this result, isn't America so big? So, since there is a time difference and it continues, I'm looking at it thinking that there might be a little bit of influence on the minds of the people who come out to the polls.

[Anchor]
If you look at the recent poll until the end, it showed a super-contest. In particular, if you look at the seven competing states that determine the victory or defeat of the election, it was a super-contest within the margin of error, so how do you analyze the situation now?

[Lim Eunjung]
It's not right to quote every single one because the results of the polls are different from one institution to another.Ma, of course, believes that they are all credible institutions, but among them, what I have now is the result of the New York Times Sinaa University. Based on these indicators, Harris seems to be a little more dominant. Trump is 46.

[Anchor]
This is November 5th.

[Lim Eunjung]
I think it's been updated a little more. As you can see, the figures are almost the same. Pennsylvania, which is the most interesting place right now, was tied now, but it was at least one or two.

[Anchor] If you look at
, it's 1-2% points.

[Lim Eunjung]
It's within the margin of error. In the end, Harris is somewhat dominant in the whole, which is 3% or 4%, but in the end, we should focus on competing stocks. The contestant is so close. To come out so close is a situation that cannot be blamed even if the prediction is wrong, no matter who is elected.

[Anchor]
In fact, polls are a little different from the final results of the last U.S. presidential election, so some say it's Shy Trump and this time it's Hidden Harris. What do you think?

[Lim Eunjung]
Now that these experiences have accumulated. I think pollsters also make efforts. For example, Shy or Hidden means that the nuance and speaking group are a little different, but the word Shy means that I didn't talk about it because I was literally embarrassed. To be ashamed is to say that supporting someone like Trump, for example, is the image of me that I receive socially, and the little cold eyes that I will receive from members of society when I say, "I support Trump." If you use the expression Hidden, you'll see it as talking about things that haven't been caught in the polls. Shy Trump was not properly reflected in the polls at the time in 2016, and when we look back on that time, Trump was a very famous person. When I was living in Washington at that time, I was a celebrity that everyone knows. He's not a celebrity, but he's a real estate developer centered on Billionaire, billionaire, and New York, so he's been on various TV entertainment shows, so he's definitely out of the politics of Yeouido in Washington's so-called Korean politics. These things weren't reflected well in the polls because it was a bit like a black box, where we don't even know how this person would come out, but since we've had these experiences, pollsters are trying to correct it. The U.S. is so big that I keep calling them, but even if I go by the thousandth, I talk about this in the hundreds of people when I go by the thousandth, and this is a poll. There could also be fundamental skepticism about whether this could be said to represent a billion-dollar electorate. The efforts to correct them are obviously being made by pollsters, but since it's a human thing, the limitations may be revealed in some way this time.

[Anchor]
On the other hand, the model for predicting the U.S. presidential election was analyzed at a 50:50 tie until the last day of the election. However, if you look at the last-minute expected winning rate trend, Harris is on the rise in the short term.

[Lim Eunjung]
But I'm not sure about this either, how to watch it. So, even if you look at the poll I just mentioned, the sampling itself is not, for example, the same sample and continuously looking at the time series, so the sample changes. In the current situation, Trump seemed to be dominant at some point, and Harris seemed to be dominant at some point, but from an observer's point of view, when we looked at the election period that passed this in time series, there was the first TV debate in June, and Biden didn't look so good at that time, so the candidate was replaced in July, and of course, there were assassination attempts and a lot of dramas, right? So at this point, at this point, we're segmenting this, and we look back on this and think about it in time series, and you can feel that the trend has gone up and down, but it may not be true. There are professors who analyze that it may not be. Experts also. In short, it's true that we're in a tight race right now. Then, rather than saying who went up or down at some point, the overall state of neck-and-neck continues, and in the end, there will be a division of interpretations on whether this will ultimately be advantageous for Trump or Harris.

[Anchor]
You're saying that you don't know all the polls. Anyway, you said there are 7 competing states, but Pennsylvania is the representative one among the competing states, why?

[Lim Eunjung]
I think that's inevitable. Because the U.S. looks similar to our history in a way because we're much smaller than the U.S., but we're divided between east and west, and that's a lot of historical reasons, but there are actually a lot of parts where the industrial structure is a little different. The industrial side is strong in the east and there are agriculture that is relatively different in the west. Of course, in Chungcheongnam-do, where our university is located, I always say that Chungcheongnam-do is similar to Pennsylvania, but there is industry and agriculture. There are even academic research institutes, these states, which are called Pennsylvania. So the oil, chemical, and steel industries that fed the traditional United States, which are close to heavy and chemical industries, were there, but this is the so-called Rust Belt, literally means that the conveyor belt is rusty, right? an area where such traditional industries had declined However, we boast a lot that Trump himself is from that university, but there is also Philadelphia where the famous U-Pen is located. And wasn't Philadelphia a symbol of America? There are cities like that, but it's complicated, but it's like the north or not the north. Industrially, it's a complex place with industrial, intellectual, and agricultural sectors, so there are 19 electors because of the large population. So a lot of people are watching that the game will be decided in the end.

[Anchor]
If you look at Pennsylvania, it was the place where former President Trump won in 2016 and the last time, in 2020, President Biden won by reversing his victory, so how can we predict this time?

[Lim Eunjung]
Well, this also varies slightly from poll to poll, but it's really going to split here in the end. After all, of these seven competing states, for example, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, Trump should definitely win. The so-called Sun Belt is a little bit southern, and of course Arizona is further west, but traditionally this area is something you have to win.

[Anchor]
The south has a strong conservative tendency.

[Lim Eunjung]
All in all, even though the various industries, especially Arizona and Georgia, have changed a lot, they still have that tendency, so let's secure this for now, at least one of the rust belts I mentioned earlier in the North. That's why Pennsylvania is important. From this point of view, Harris seems to be somewhat more likely in this context, because the North has a higher number of electors. If you win after Wisconsin and Michigan, even if you lose this side, you add that number to 270, Harris has these analyses.

[Anchor]
The key is whether to keep your garden firmly.

[Lim Eunjung]
That's why you have to bring a pen.

[Anchor]
Regionally, the early voting was held until the end. There are more than 82 million viewers. I guess this is quite a lot.

[Lim Eunjung]
This is probably during COVID-19, and it's on the chart here during COVID-19. COVID-19 came out the highest. So, it is now found to be 66.8% of the total turnout, and then more than 100 million people voted in advance. And at that time, it was inevitable. But when I compared it back and forth, these figures come out now, and as the anchor said this year, it's already exceeded 7500 yesterday and 8,000 today. It can be estimated now that it will probably exceed 50% without difficulty.

[Anchor]
More than half of the total turnout was cast in advance.

[Lim Eun-jung] It is expected that more than half of those who have
will pass, so if we think about it traditionally, isn't this the same in Korea? If the pre-voting rate is high, progressive parties will become somewhat more advantageous. If you think so, Harris seems to be dominant when the Democratic Party inquired at the exit of those who voted early, but unlike the traditional interpretation, the Republican side also seems to be dominant. The traditional interpretation was that the conservative side couldn't trust the early voting, so let's go on the day of the field. But this time, the Republican Party is encouraging it now.
Let's vote in advance, let's do it like this. So in the end, the key is how much both sides can unite now, so I think there is more room to see if the early voting rate will necessarily bring a very favorable result for the Democratic Party.

[Anchor]
I think we'll have to wait until the end of the vote count. On the other hand, the votes of white women are also considered one of the factors that will determine the victory or defeat of the presidential election. In fact, white women have ruled in favor of former President Trump in the last two U.S. presidential elections. How about this time?

[Lim Eunjung]
Well, the character Trump is a character that people who like this really like.

[Anchor]
If you look at the votes for a moment, white women make up 32% of the total voters. Because of course there are people of color.

[Lim Eunjung]
No matter how much the U.S. would say. Even in multiracial countries, you can see that white people have an absolute advantage. That's inevitable in terms of demographic, for example, Nick Haley. Someone like Nicky Haley, who was an ambassador to the United Nations, participated in the election, and even some people expected to go all the way until the end. If you question the generalization of all white women, the conflict in the United States is a problem in which gender issues are already identified through various indicators, but it also shows some class conflict and class conflict structure on top of gender issues, such as white men who are not highly educated, such as high school graduates, as workers, or engaged in agriculture, there have been times when the so-called income of these people was higher than that of women, even if they were college graduates. But now, it's up to the viewers to decide what's more fair.After all, the income of college graduates with higher educational backgrounds has increased. So what you see here is that it's white, but compared to the relative decline in the social status of men in the past in terms of gender, the status of women has risen more economically, and it's anger, collective anger, or heat loss that comes from this structure. Should I call it disappointment? In that sense, there are some things that are added to a character called Trump, so even if they are highly educated white women who would have supported someone like Nick Haley earlier, and sometimes their area is dominated by the Republican Party, there may be those who couldn't say well. Even if it's like that, there may be people around me who say that I should elect Harris at the end of the day.

[Anchor]
It is not necessarily divided into men and women and divided into halves. The income structure has changed a lot.

[Lim Eunjung]
I think so. I think income structure, education level, and the atmosphere of your area should all be considered together.

[Anchor]
You just saw the viewers on the screen.There are a lot of stickers attached to it. Those are the stickers on the women's bathroom, and your vote here is a secret. And your boyfriend or husband doesn't need to know who you shot. I heard this was also a campaign by Harris' camp.

[Lim Eunjung]
Trump's election in 2016 had a huge impact on the world, but what I felt while living in the U.S. at that time also contributed to the conflict between the couple. It's called Trump's election. There was a lot of divorce. In the end, many people thought that they could not maintain this community as it is, confirming that they have lived together all their lives, but whether they had such a different political perspective. So the whole history of it is action and reaction after all. As a reaction, I think those are the phrases that remind me of that experience in a way. It seems to be part of a campaign to exercise your political beliefs as a vote without having to worry about such things.

[Anchor]
As you can see, there was even an advertisement that encouraged female voters to vote for their beliefs, and of course, Trump expressed a furious atmosphere, saying it was an alienation. Do you think this will have an impact?

[Lim Eunjung]
Well, Trump had so many women-related issues. There are actually judicial parts going on right now. As a woman, I have a lot to say about that.Didn't Ma have any trouble anyway? Considering the recordings in the locker room during the 2016 election and the problems with a certain actor, there are some areas where it is difficult for women to feel this. And yet Trump kept talking about himself. I've said that I'm a very favorable and good person to women more than anyone else.

[Anchor]
I see. So anyway, in the last two presidential elections, all white women supported Trump, and in proportion, they supported Trump more, and the New York Times said that white women will have a big impact on their victory or defeat this time. I think that's why I'm looking at it more intensively because I wrote this article. This time, let's compare the pledges and the policies of the two candidates. Is it very different?

[Lim Eunjung]
I think Trump was in June, and Biden was the candidate then.Ma emphasized the most at the time: inflation, illegal immigration, and Afghanistan. That's what the defense diplomacy said. As you can see in this chart, we're also putting a lot of emphasis on illegal immigration until the very end. So there are very serious words for mass deportation, but Harris is saying she will strengthen border security, and Trump will decide on a weekly basis on the issue of abortion rights, which has a big social impact, while Harris is saying she will guarantee more progressive reproductive rights, and in economic terms, Trump will cut taxes, and eventually, universal tariffs, even though we have the Korea-U.S. FTA. Harris, on the other hand, is the so-called reshoring that happened during the Biden administration while implementing policies for the middle class, the mainstream of the Democratic Party. We're talking about inheriting the inflation reduction law that was an extension of bringing factories back to the United States. And in terms of the North Korean issue and the North Korean issue, which is important to us, Trump has emphasized that he is close. Harris is more critical of that, compared to the fact that such summit diplomacy is possible. So, the most pressing concern in foreign policy is the war in Ukraine, and Trump wants to end the war immediately, and Harris wants to support Ukraine for the time being, so it's quite divided. One thing I want to tell you is that Trump took the lead in the debate earlier in June. Inflation, illegal immigration, and Afghanistan have been set up, so the Democratic Party seems to be unable to go further from being defensive, except for the issue of abortion rights. Except, most of them are frames that Trump made. Of course, Trump is not the only one who made this, but these are really important issues, and Trump has set the agenda well, so it's a little bit like a reaction to it.

[Anchor]
So, compared to the policies now, Harris versus Trump, but isn't Harris actually inheriting Biden's policy right now?

[Lim Eunjung]
Even in interviews here and there, when you ask what's the difference, you can't say anything right now. He keeps saying that he's not Biden, that he's different from Biden, but when he specifically asks what he's going to do, he cleared it from there, and it's not coming out clean, which may be a limitation of Harris. Because this hasn't happened before, has it? Whether the candidate changes in the middle or not, in a way, it is not a candidate who has passed through the Democratic Party's procedures through the primary process. I think the lack of such sharpness comes from this kind of place.

[Anchor]
Depending on the outcome of the presidential election, there will inevitably be changes in global diplomacy, politics, and economy, so how about pointing out the impact on Korea?

[Lim Eun-jung]
From our point of view, the U.S. presidential election affects any country in the world, but our people must be very worried because we are making security policies based on alliances. First of all, considering the scenario that Trump will be elected, the biggest concern will also be the cost-sharing issue. And what I'm also very sensitive about is nuclear armament. We can't accept this when we say we're going to negotiate 1:1 with North Korea, and we're going to negotiate something that's close to nuclear disarmament. If we don't have it, in the end, the voices of those who insist on nuclear armament of their own in our society will be more powerful. We are concerned about these scenarios, but it is absolutely not that matters related to the Korean Peninsula are not important. In view of the urgency of the issue, I don't think it will be easy for our issue to come to the top of the list next year in 2025 if Trump takes office. That may be good news in a way or bad news in a way. In the end, the most urgent thing right now is the situation in Ukraine, and of course, North Korea is involved here, so we have a direct relationship.Ma said, "How do we deal with the situation in Ukraine? We're all directly related to this, so it's gotten worse here than the situation in the Middle East. At one point, the situation in the Middle East looked worse as it turned upside down.Ma, as I believe the situation in Europe is much more urgent now.

[Anchor]
To the point where Putin himself mentioned World War III.

[Lim Eunjung]
In fact, it seems that those living in Europe feel that way. I'm very concerned about the possibility.

[Anchor]
North Korea also sent troops.Ma also shot ballistic missiles today on the Korean Peninsula. He also fired an intercontinental ballistic missile a few days ago, so he seems to be doing so ahead of the U.S. presidential election to continue to reveal his presence. Voting began today, and from tomorrow, voting will be closed, counting will begin, and the results will come out, but there is a possibility that the results will come out a long time later. Usually, we come out on that day.

[Lim Eunjung]
Right, I come out at dawn. But it took about four days to find out that it was an election on November 3rd in 2020 and it came out around the evening of the 7th. It could take a long time this time. We talked about it earlier.There's a time difference. There's a time difference, and then certain states in the U.S. are federal.

[Anchor]
So, the tickets are coming out.Ma is different from state to state. The start time is different and the closing time is different. That's based on the Eastern time, but it's all different based on the Eastern time. It's different for each state, whether it's 6 p.m. or 8 p.m.

[Lim Eunjung] It's
. Because it's a federal state, the autonomy that each state has is so strong, so the rules vary from state to state, for example, Pennsylvania, our top concern, is just automatically recounted if the vote rate differs by less than 0.5%. From the beginning.

[Anchor] Based on
0.5%?

[Lim Eunjung]
There are quite a few states like this. The same goes for Washington DC. The number varies from state to state. So there may be situations where you have to recount like this. Because as we've seen in the polls, it could be because it's too close, so if we do a recount, it'll take longer. And then there's a mail-in vote. If I have to watch that part, this week, I don't know. I think it's a process that could be at least a few days or maybe longer. I think you'll have to wait a little slow.

[Anchor]
As you said, in the case of competing stocks, as the results of the vote count are delayed, there may be a request for a recount. In fact, there are already concerns about a lawsuit, but they said there are already about 90 lawsuits related to the presidential election.

[Lim Eunjung] It's
. What you're most concerned about right now is the January 6th incident, which is very shocking for me, and it's shocking for everyone.

[Anchor]
a storming of the Capitol

[Lim Eunjung]
That's right. This happens in a country called the United States, no matter how much the United States is a country with guns, it can't happen, and it shouldn't happen again. It shouldn't happen again, but I'm concerned that those who strongly support Trump and Trump himself are also very eloquent, so I can't help but worry about this scenario.

[Anchor]
Especially in the Pennsylvania area, they're going to cheat in the election and try to put you in jail if you point it out. And it can be interpreted as saying, "I'll accept it when it's fair, legal, and good elections," and "I won't accept it if I don't win." So there are already a lot of voices concerned about the aftermath of the election. Let's stop here today. Lim Eun-jung was a professor of international studies at Gongju University. Thank you.