[News UP] U.S. presidential election to announce exit poll soon...When is the outline of the winner coming out?

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Bong Young-sik, a professional researcher at Yonsei Unification Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's go into detail about the U.S. presidential election. We will be joined by Bong Young-sik, a researcher specializing in Yonsei Unification Research Institute. Please come in. The main vote in the U.S. presidential election is underway. Now that it's past 8 a.m., some areas seem to be closed for voting. Kentucky and Indiana seem to be closed, but when the polls usually close, they start counting right away, right?

[Bongyeongsik]
That's right. And the elections in Korea, too.Ma announces the results of the exit poll by a pollster. So it may be a little far from the real turnout, but it's still an exit poll that reflects the trend based on the polls, so it's going to outline how much and which candidates are ahead in which states.

[Anchor]
Since each state has different time zones, the closing time of the vote is different and the method of vote counting is different. Looking at it now, Georgia and North Carolina will finish voting in about an hour, and these two are competing states. How can we anticipate that?

[Bongyeongsik]
That's right. Isn't it too close to call in many ways? Even if you look at the last poll of the Financial Times, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 1.5% in the national vote, but all seven contending states are within the margin of error, so it's a dark election. However, it is fortunate for those waiting for the results of the vote because of the time difference, when the counting starts early. Because the vote count starts in the eastern states of North Carolina and Georgia, the exit polls and the early vote count give you a little bit of an outline of the election.

These two states have actually been classified as the dominant states of Donald Trump until now, but within a week of the election, Kamala Harris was rather ahead or a close race within the margin of error. If Trump loses Georgia or North Carolina, if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In other words, even if you don't win all three states in the Northeast in Rust Belt, you'll have the absolute majority of 270 electors needed to win the presidential election. So North Carolina, Georgia. Especially, states with a higher percentage of black voters than other states.

In Georgia, 33% of all voters are black, and in North Carolina, 22% of all voters are black. So if Kamala Harris appears to be ahead, Kamala Harris is likely to be elected.

[Anchor]
I see. In Georgia, however, during the last presidential election, candidate Trump insisted on fraudulent elections, so recounts were conducted. So this time, I said that all the votes are counted manually, so wouldn't it take longer for the results to come out?

[Bongyeongsik]
That's right. There were various controversies in 2020, and at that time, the COVID-19 crisis was in full swing, so many voters chose to vote by mail and early voting. So it took four days after the election for the results to be outlined and revealed as a stage of confirmation. If we include a Georgia recount or something like this, it is expected that more thorough checks will be conducted to erode the controversy over dissent and election manipulation after the election, so I think we can see the final results of the election that are really reliable for about four or five days after November 5, similar to the 2020 presidential election.

[Anchor]
The final deadline for voting is today in our time anyway. Alaska ends at 3 p.m. in our time, so if the votes are counted then, it could take a few more days for the outline of the winner, right?

[Bongyeongsik]
That's right. But it's a guess.I don't know what to watch. That's why I'm telling you to look at the state of the vote count in North Carolina and Georgia first. The first is these two states, which have a large proportion of the seven contending states with 15 electors. Didn't the two candidates really compete for life and death with Pennsylvania, where 19 electors are at stake? However, if one of the two candidates loses Pennsylvania and secures North Carolina or Georgia, there is still a chance of winning, but if they lose Pennsylvania and lose North Carolina or Georgia, it will be difficult to secure a majority of 270 electors.

[Anchor]
I see. Even if it takes a lot of time to be confirmed, according to what you said, we will be able to predict some outline this morning in our time. We heard from the correspondent earlier.I don't know if it's right to say that the atmosphere in the U.S. regarding the presidential election is quite heated up.Ma seems to have become radical. I think there are some security problems and security problems, what do you think?

[Bongyeongsik]
But didn't we have such a big measles in 2020? Since the U.S. government agencies and the people have experienced it, this time, they have thoroughly prepared for four years in advance, the U.S. media reports. You can expect a disturbance or something like that, but the probability of a really fatal event is not high. It's natural that the heat is high. It's such a close game, isn't it? So what election experts now expect is that turnout will be very high.

When Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump competed in 2016, turnout was just over 60 percent. 60. 1%. But in 2020, 66.4%. That is, two out of three U.S. voters were in the election. 66. 4%. So if this time, the turnout will be 64% to 65%. This is a phenomenon favorable to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Because if the turnout is high compared to candidate Trump. Candidate Trump won 47% of the national vote in 2020 as well as in the 2016 presidential election.

Together, 47 percent. However, the rising voter turnout means that about 8 million young voters who cast their ballots for the first time participated in the voting. And I'll tell you that this is a little bit of a favorable phenomenon for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, because the floating voters in the middle, other than the concrete supporters, were on the ballot.

[Anchor]
As I told you a while ago, the main vote in the U.S. presidential election has closed in some regions. It has been confirmed that the counting of votes is in progress. Let's watch CNN's live interpretation together. Trump is 43 percent. We are leading by 58.7% in the vote count situation. The lower part is on the rural side. It's a suburb up there. In 2020, he also won 58% of the vote. You can see that it's almost following the figures of 2020. In 2016, it received nearly 60% of the vote. So you can see that it's pretty much following the share of votes in those counties that have won in the past. So, we're looking at what's coming out of Republican-dominated states once again.

In the case of Weekly County, 62.4% of the votes are received this year. In 2020, we won 73% of the vote. We'll have to watch these comparisons. Depending on the turnout of Trump supporters, you can see how high or low it is compared to the vote in the last election. What you're seeing right now is Republican dominant states. In the case of competing stocks, we need to see more closely the difference in the vote share. The actual results of the vote count will be released soon. Let's look into the situation of Kyungjoo. Many people are still voting at polling stations. There's also a reporter out in Michigan. What kind of conversation did you have with the young people at the polling station?

[Reporter]
Lucom County, where I am, is where I supported Trump in the last election. What's interesting is that I supported Biden last time, in the case of the right voters.Ma says he voted for Trump this time. They have three children and one more is scheduled to be born next week. What criteria did you decide?

[Interview]
I think Trump will be able to do so many things if he is elected president. So my wife and I voted on that basis.

[Reporter]
You said that the economy was better during the Trump administration from the standpoint of doing business.

[Interview]
is correct. There were a number of stimulus packages in the Biden administration.Ma thinks the economy under the Trump administration was better. If candidate Trump wins this time, I think he can go back to that period.

[Reporter]
Some voters doubt that their votes will be counted properly. What do you think?

[Interview]
I think it will be fair in our Markham County. However, I think it was stolen last time. I looked at the results of the poll and the results of the vote count. I remember that the dominant candidates varied significantly depending on the date.

[Reporter]
Congratulations on your soon-to-be-born baby. We'll see if voters will show up at more polling stations.

[Anchor]
You said something important. In fact, I didn't have that much faith last time, but this time, I notice that I said I had faith in this system specifically and in a fair vote. Then let's go to Wisconsin. It's at a polling station in Milwaukee. I've seen a lot of residents who want to vote now. The count has just begun, and it looks really busy.

[Anchor]
We listened to CNN's vote counting broadcast with simultaneous interpretation. The areas where the votes are being counted are Indiana and Kentucky, and you just saw it on the screen, and if you look at the early stages of the vote, you think candidate Trump is dominant. How are you watching it?

[Bongyeongsik]
As I explained earlier, the county is such a Republican-dominated area that there is still too little data to generalize with it. Viewers must be frustrated, but there's a noticeable hint. Then, shouldn't we look at the stock prices of companies that benefit from who is elected? Isn't it the same in our country during elections? Someone, someone, someone candidate, comes out like this. Then you can think of two companies. One is Trump Social, a media company where Trump is a major shareholder.

If you look at the stock price there, it actually continued to fall until the day before the U.S. presidential election on November 5th. It continued to fall, and then in early November, there were disparaging comments about women and disparaging Puerto Rican voters, and then it crashed. However, on November 4, the day before the election, suddenly soared 12%. So, I checked before coming to the studio, and it's 1% missing now. This could be a hint. Another is Elon Must, you can think of Elon Musk who was willing to throw in $120 million in campaign funds for Trump and 250 billion won in our country's money.

Looking at Tesla's stock price, wouldn't it be evidence that Trump is a strong candidate if Tesla's stock price rises? So I watched it. Tesla shares then fell for six consecutive trading days until the day before the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Then, on the day of the election, it suddenly rose by 3.5%. on the morning of the election But when I checked it before coming in, it was 2.9%. And what you're going to think about is why the billionaire. Will Elon Musk, the world's third richest man, support Trump by spending 250 billion won on his own money?

Because Tesla is an electric vehicle company, wouldn't it be more advantageous to maintain the inflation reduction bill that the Biden Democratic administration has been pushing for? Why? You may wonder if Elon Musk will support Trump, who has pledged to abolish the inflation-reduction bill. But isn't Elon Musk a businessman? So if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is elected and the inflation-reduction bill continues, there will be $75 million in tax benefits per electric vehicle. Then, won't Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, continue to benefit?

So it doesn't hurt if Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is elected. Then, shouldn't the company prepare something when candidate Trump is elected? Tesla, by the way, is an American electric vehicle company, but half of its factories are in China. And candidate Trump said that if he is elected, he will abolish the tax benefits for electric vehicles, $7,500. Then, Kia and foreign electric vehicle companies will now have a consumer burden of 10 million won more expensive per car in the U.S. automobile market. Then Tesla is an American car, an American electric car.

Although there is a factory in China. If we persuade President Trump in this way, we will secure price competitiveness of about 10 million won compared to other foreign electric vehicles and Kia electric vehicles in price competition. That's why Elon Musk is preparing another situation that wouldn't be bad if Trump was elected. How can you invest 250 billion won like this? It's too much money. Looking at Elon Musk's personal assets, it's currently 322 trillion won. So, it's not 250 billion won, it's not 3% of Elon Musk's assets, it's only 0.3% of Elon Musk's assets, so betting on Trump for Tesla's future is very much. Chaebol seem to see different things about money.

[Anchor]
There are also various hints about the results of the presidential election, and in this presidential election, young voters are actively participating in the vote. Which candidate would be advantageous if the younger generation's turnout increased?

[Bongyeongsik]
This is Kamala Harris. Because these young candidates are called the Profense Divide, low-leaning voters. The polls say that they are lazy and busy on the day that they will support this candidate, so they don't vote. Young voters. So if you look at the turnout of those in their 60s or older, it's 76%, in the 2020 presidential election. Less than 50% of young voters under the age of 26 actually voted. However, the Democratic Party traditionally enjoys a lot of support from young voters.

So what's important to Harris is that young voters are actively voting, and when President Barack Obama won the presidential election in 2008, the Republican candidate gap was 66 percent among young voters under 30. In 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden outperformed Republican nominee Trump by 20% among the same young electorate. However, polls suggest that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads Trump by only 17% among young voters and those under the age of 30. At least 20% of the gap should be widened to the extent that Democratic nominee Joe Biden won in 2020, so Kamala Harris has a high chance of winning, so encouraging young voters to increase their turnout is the key to winning the Democratic Party.

[Anchor]
In this election, early voting and mail-in voting rates are also quite high. In the case of early voting, are the votes counted at the same time?

[Bongyeongsik]
The laws vary from state to state. For example, Pennsylvania, a contested state with 19 electors that we're looking at, only receives mail-in ballots until voting begins at 7 a.m. on election day, and no one can touch them. I'm just keeping it. So it's not until the morning of the election that the process of sorting it starts and it takes a long time to count because it starts after the vote is completely finished in Pennsylvania. So early voting and in-person voting counting, Pennsylvania is going to be very slow and meticulous for about three days. That's why there are a lot of concerns and controversies about fraudulent elections.

[Anchor]
In the case of former President Trump, he also said this earlier this year. He also said that he would turn the United States into a sea of blood if he lost the presidential election, but the possibility of dissatisfaction continues to emerge. If I declare my presidential objection, what process is left after that?

[Bongyeongsik]
It's going to take a lot of lawsuits. Several groups supporting Trump's position will take legal action. Then each state has a court hearing on whether a lawsuit against such election disobedience is valid. In 2020, most of the lawsuits filed in the court were dismissed. on the grounds that there is no reason So, if candidate Trump declares dissatisfaction, there will be a lawsuit to stop certifying the election count and ask for a recount or investigation into it once again.

This is January 6th, when the election results are officially confirmed in the House and Senate. On January 6th, members of the House and Senate gather to make the final confirmation and certification of the votes chosen by the electors, 538 votes. When do the electors vote? 538 people gather on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December. So it will be December 16th in our country. As of the U.S. date. We'll get together on Monday, December 16th. The result is right for the Senator and the House of Representatives. Is it correct that you chose this candidate for the electors?

I check one by one. It happens at the Capitol on January 6th and it is the sitting vice president who presides over it. He's also the speaker of the House. That's why the Capitol rampage happened on January 6th when Trump declared his disapproval last time. At that time, I was checking the results of the last election, and President Trump told the vice president, Pence, not to preside over this meeting for me, but Vice President Mike Pence said the Constitution was more important than the president, so I went ahead with it. So the mob stormed the Capitol. Where's Vice President Mike Pence? When they said let's kill him, the officers told President Trump that now the mob is trying to kill Vice President Mike Pence. I said

and what President Trump said at the time was I don't care. I said it didn't matter. That's why it happened in Parliament on January 6th. Again, the final confirmation of the election results ends on January 6, 2025, when senators and congressmen formally approve the results of the electorate at the Capitol.

[Anchor]
Now, the word "presidential election stress" has been created for the American people. There are many people who say their hearts are beating, they can't sleep, but I think it means that there are many Americans who are worried about polarization after the presidential election. How should I solve this part?

[Bongyeongsik]
Isn't it the same in our country? Because of this politics and election, I couldn't even get together with my family, and my classmates fought and broke up. People say that we are not talking about religion and politics, but the same goes for American society. Therefore, in Korea, we are suffering from pain and antagonizing each other every election, and we talk about what we can do because our country and our society are so polarized, but isn't Korea also continuing to move forward? In the United States, I think that American citizens will use some wisdom in their own way.

[Anchor]
We continue to wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election to come out. Voting has already been completed in some areas. In Indiana and Kentucky, counting of votes has begun. Of the seven competing states, Georgia and North Carolina are 30 minutes from now, and voting is expected to close at around 9 a.m. and counting will begin in earnest. I'm still talking with the professor, but he mentioned it before.Today, in our time, voting will be closed in the entire United States within today.

[Bongyeongsik]
Except for Hawaii, Alaska.

[Anchor]
When the deadline is over, the count begins. Then the outline can be revealed by this evening, right? [Bong Youngsik] And watch the YTN morning news tomorrow early in the morning to be more accurate, and to the viewers, note 47. Number 47. Let me tell you. It is the 47th president of the United States of America who will be elected this time. Trump ran for his third presidential election this time, beating Hillary Clinton in 2016 and losing in 2020. But in 2016, Trump's vote share in 2020 was the same at 47%.

So, if Trump wins more than 47% of the national vote this time, Trump is likely to win. You can look at it like this. The second hint is white female voters. White female voters in the U.S. did not fully support Hillary Clinton, the 2016 female candidate, but rather voted 2% more for Trump, the male candidate. In 2020, 46% supported Joe Biden, and 7% more U.S. white female voters voted for Trump.

Therefore, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is likely to win the 2024 presidential election only when she wins more than 47% from white female voters in the U.S., higher than 45% and 46%. 47. In order for Trump to be elected as the 47th president, he needs to cross the 47% wall in the national vote, and for Kamala Harris to be the 47th president, white female voters need to support 47% or more, not 45-46. It will be helpful if you remember this.

[Anchor]
There's a story like this, too. In fact, there were many voters who supported Trump during the last presidential election, but in this presidential election, there are many people who officially express that they support Trump, so there are not many shy Trumps and there are more hidden Harriss. What do you think about this?

[Bongyeongsik]
I think so, too. Because this is Trump's third presidential bid, right? So Shy, I've had to stop hiding that I'm not a Trump supporter for the past eight years, but I'm sure I've been exposed by now. And now that candidate Trump has served four years as president, it's not such a shame that I support Trump. In that sense, this is a bit of a disadvantage for candidate Trump. Because in the 2016 presidential election and the 2020 presidential election, polls have undervalued Trump, especially in competing states.

So in 2016, polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump by a margin in contention states, especially in three Rust Belt states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. But when I opened the lid, candidate Trump was undervalued. It's three to five percent more. So in a close game, candidate Trump won the race in 2016 and won the election, although he lost.Ma said in 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden also led Trump in this contested state by about 3%, and when he opened the lid, he won, but it was less than 1% of the race.

So, from candidate Trump's point of view, it would be advantageous if Shy Trump remained quiet this time, did not participate in the poll, but actively participated in the vote, so once again, it would be undervalued in the poll, but as I said earlier, Trump is no longer any new candidate. So it's possible to speculate that the hidden vote is actually more likely to be Kamala Harris than the voters who have not been properly reflected in the polls.

[Anchor]
I see. Usually around the day after the polls close nationwide. A candidate makes a declaration that acknowledges defeat, so it's hard to see that this time, right?

[Bongyeongsik]
It's hard to expect from candidate Trump. How can a candidate who said he would make a bloodbath say congratulations on a purely peaceful transfer of power? However, because it was such a close game, in 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore called Republican candidate George W. to congratulate him, and since Florida's vote count was too close, he called back and said he would cancel the call earlier. So I said, "Why do you keep calling me because I'm offended?"

So it wasn't until the Supreme Court approved Florida's vote count and fully confirmed George W. as the presidential candidate, that Al Gore gave a acceptance speech to the election results at a press conference. So I called and congratulated Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush in a humorous way, and I will not call him again this time. I've given you tenderloin, and I've also done this kind of jock.

[Anchor]
From the perspective of the U.S., there were many analyses that the presidential election is on a path that has never been taken before. The candidates suddenly changed in the middle. It's the first time that male and female candidates are competing against each other, and the election process of the U.S. presidential election, so what can you do if you evaluate the process?

[Bongyeongsik]
It really revealed the bare face of America. The United States is so complex, so problematic, and so divided. However, despite such problems, the process continues to work. Eventually, the president of the United States is elected. And there's all the constitutional preparations for the number of different cases for how they're elected. Even if the 530 electors were tied at 269:269, there was still a way to elect a president. It's because the House of Representatives decides.

If you look at it that way, it shows the weaknesses and problems of the United States, but at the same time, it also shows how strong the U.S. system is and how flexible it is. There were candidates like Trump and experienced the same presidential election for four years. However, Korea also has the chance to elect its first female president. It was the 47th U.S. presidential election that showed such a complicated aspect of the United States. Let me tell you this.

[Anchor]
We're showing it to you on the screen.Ma is continuously coming out of the polls. It's 8:40 right now. In about 20 minutes, the main vote will end in Georgia and North Carolina among the competing states you're looking at. The counting of votes will begin. Of course, it will take a considerable amount of time for the vote count to close.Ma analyzed that depending on the results of Georgia and North Carolina, the outline might be known to some extent.

We're continuing to deliver the special news on the U.S. presidential election. We'll continue to find out when Georgia and North Carolina vote counts begin in a little while. I'm still with the professor, and he's also evaluated the election process.I think there will be some differences in how the U.S. will flow in the future, depending on the outcome.

[Bongyeongsik]
But it's called growing pain. The voting process for the 2020 presidential election was also difficult.Ma also had a riot that broke into the Capitol even though he officially acknowledged the results at a joint meeting of both houses of Congress on January 6, right? The experience shocked the American people and the whole world, but it hit the bottom, so 2024 is ready for that. So January 20th is the first day of the inauguration of the president of the United States. Until then, I think that the official approval of all election results will be over, and that such a system will work.

[Anchor]
I see. That's all for today. When the counting starts in Gyeonggi Province in a little while, we will broadcast it live through CNN simultaneous interpretation. Professor, thank you for today's talk.