New York Stock Exchange, Oil Price Also Sensitive to Ultra-Close Presidential Election
New York Oil Prices Up for 2nd straight Day...WTI 0.73% ↑
Changes in Bond and Exchange Markets Reflected by 'Trump Trade'
Let's go to New York this time. Correspondent Lee Seungyoon!
You're out in front of Trump Tower.
How is the atmosphere there?
[Reporter]
Supporters and reporters gather in front of Trump Tower, the home of former U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in New York.
Fences have been installed everywhere, and police are also deployed, so the guard is tight.
Earlier in the 2016 presidential election, former President Trump enjoyed victory at Trump Tower.
Trump also expressed his desire to win the presidential election in New York, his home state, saying New York was occupied by immigrants.
[Anchor]
Is the financial market sensitive as this U.S. presidential election is expected to have a lot of impact on the global economy?
[Reporter]
Yes, it is.
Oil prices rose for the second day in a row yesterday and today as the dollar weakened in financial markets that saw Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris highly likely to win the election.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, closed at $71.99 a barrel, up $0.52 and 0.73% from the previous session.
In the bond and foreign exchange markets, the dominance of Republican candidate former President Donald Trump has been actively reflected in the falling prices of U.S. government bonds and the strong dollar, but there has been a backlash recently.
On the other hand, the stock market moves narrowly in a flat zone and is in a wait-and-see mood.
As the uncertainty of the presidential election itself has already been adjusted since the middle of last month, it is a trend of waiting for the results of the presidential election rather than actively reversing the "Trump Trade," that is, strengthening Trump beneficiaries.
Earlier yesterday, a day before the presidential election, the three major indexes closed lower as investors tightened their guard.
On the other hand, the New York Stock Exchange today ended with all three major indexes higher, showing expectations ahead of vigilance on the occasion of electing the 47th president.
The move is interpreted as a revival of buying sentiment, given that uncertainties related to the presidential election will be resolved no matter how the voting results come out.
Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, which is the largest stake held by former President Trump, rose 12.37% the previous day and once rose around 15%, but ended up falling 1%.
Experts analyzed that no matter who wins, Harris or Trump will have little impact on tech stocks, but the direction of energy and solar, healthcare and finance-related stocks may vary depending on the election results.
Economic media CNBC reported, "In the year of the U.S. presidential election, the three major indexes of the New York Stock Exchange showed a significant increase in average returns between election day and the end of the year."
However, he advised, "It has declined on average for a week after the election day," adding, "It is better to prepare for short-term instability."
He added that uncertainty could make the market uneasy if the same delay in counting occurs again during the 2020 presidential election.
The cryptocurrency Bitcoin recovered to the 70,000-point level, with Trump still highly likely to win the election, saying he would make the U.S. the cryptocurrency capital.
[Anchor]
In addition to the presidential election, the results of the federal Senate and House of Representatives elections are also attracting attention?
[Reporter]
Yes, it is.
This is because government spending and tax policies vary significantly depending on which of the Democratic and Republican parties has the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The powers of the Senate and House of Representatives, which are currently Democratic and Republican, respectively, may be reshaped.
Forecasters say Republicans are very likely to win back the Senate majority by adding seats, and the House cannot guarantee a victory for either side, making it a foggy turn.
The election will pick 34 new members of the Senate, one-third of the total, and 435 members of the House of Representatives.
YTN had a conversation with CNN's political reporter to analyze it, and let's hear it for ourselves.
[Julia Benbrook / CNN Political Reporter] Many of the presidential candidates' promises, especially on the economy, need to be approved by the U.S. Congress. Parliamentary power reorganization is going to be very important.]
Among the four active Korean representatives, Andy Kim of the Democratic New Jersey region is expected to challenge for the Senate and be the most likely candidate.
Rep. Marilyn Stryklund of the Democratic Washington area and Young Kim of the Republican California area are also likely to win the election.
Michelle Park Steel, a Republican in California, is also considered a close favorite.
Attention is also focusing on whether Democratic California candidate Dave Min will be elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Statistics experts analyzed that the probability of getting a head in a coin toss is 50.5%, but this race is even closer from the perspective of the predictive model.
As it is very close, the aftermath is expected to be that large, and there is full preparation for it.
I'm YTN's Lee Seungyoon from New York.
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