Pollsters mainly 'on the side of the Democratic Party'..."There's already a prejudice." [Y transcript]

■ Host: Lee Yeo-jin, anchor Jang Won-seok
■ Starring: Cho Byung-je, professor of the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special Report-2024 U.S. Choice] when quoting.

◇Anchor> Of course, the vote count is not complete, but all seven competing states now show former President Trump leading. Now, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are all led by former President Trump. What do you think of this part?

◆Jo Byeong-je> So, if you look at it like this, we're saying that it's a neck-and-neck race, so I thought it would be very close, but wouldn't that be the basis for the continuous public opinion survey? But the results of the poll were wrong back in 2016. Then you said you'd win by a big margin in 2020, but Biden almost narrowly won a little bit, didn't you? And he said it would be too close this time, but if you look at the current situation, Trump is far more dominant than too close, so why Trump won and the overall economic situation was not good is a big reason, but I wonder if pollsters have tried hard to fix the problems of this poll since 2016 and 2020, but they haven't yet. There may be things like Shy Trump and Hidden Harris that we're talking about a lot in the media, but more than that, I think there may be some prejudice already underlying the pollster itself. What I mean is that the organizations that have been leading the polls were the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN. But these media organizations are actually on the side of the Democratic Party in the American presidential election, already. And among the leading media organizations we know very well, Fox News was the only one standing on Trump's side. So I'm trying a lot to do the polls that come out here objectively, but I wondered if there was a little prejudice that started with the sample survey, which is inevitable.

◇Anchor> Even so, I have to point out the prejudice that the polling agency has just mentioned that there is a problem with the polling technique because it is not just one or two mistakes and it keeps getting wrong in the three presidential elections. What is the prejudice that the polling agency has?

◆Morning disease> For example, there's something like this. I don't know if something similar can be applied to Korea, but if you think you have a little sympathy with a call from a certain media or a certain polling agency, you'll get that call and respond quickly. But if that's not the case, I'm a big fan of Trump, but there's a pretty good chance I won't answer because CNN asked me.

◇Anchor> CNN reports a lot criticizing Trump.

◆조병제> 그러니까 이미 볼 수 있겠습니다Ma has been talking about influential media from the past in the United States, for example, the New York Times.The Washington Post and CNN have been on the side of the Democratic Party during the presidential election. So, in Trump's view, there's this tendency to belong to a kind of media establishment. So it seems that the way voters see the media may be a little different from what they see outside of us. So I think that's what I'm talking about, maybe that's the kind of prejudice that's already underlying, and pollsters have tried so hard to get rid of it. I got it wrong in 2016, I got it wrong in 2020, but I got it wrong twice, so it's not fair, is it? In order to fix that, I heard that the previous phone inquiries were made by e-mail and text this time, and then the method of weighting was changed, and I tried to correct it variously. Looking at the appearance this time, there are definitely some parts that are very difficult to correct technically. So I thought maybe there was a prejudice that was difficult to resolve from sampling.



Excerpted from the conversation: Lee Mi-young, editor of the digital news team

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