■ Starring: Bong Young-sik, a professional researcher at Yonsei Unification Research Institute, Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division at the Institute for Military Affairs,
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.
[Anchor]
How will the U.S. change? Trump, who won seven contending states, is back in the White House with a stronger appearance. Elon Musk, who donated hundreds of billions of won to Trump's camp, has emerged as a "Kingmaker," increasing his chances of participating in the Cabinet. Let's analyze yesterday's election results and their impact on our country in detail. Bong Young-sik, a professional researcher at Yonsei Unification Research Institute, and Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division at the Korea Military Research Institute. Welcome.
Before recruiting the two, I expected that they would not be able to compete until today and at this time. But the game was decided early yesterday. Did you expect that?
[Bongyeongsik]
I didn't expect Trump to win such a landslide victory.
[Anchor]
I'm sure there are a lot of people in the US who know it, right?
[Bongyeongsik]
But it's all divided this time. Didn't you say it's too close until the end of the exit poll and the poll? It is true that three preliminary polls by pollsters have been greatly missed so far, including the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Once again, Trump was undervalued by about 3% in the polls. The Democratic Party has experienced this in the past two presidential elections, so Hillary lost in 2016 when she said she was far ahead, and polls showed that Joe Biden was ahead in 3 percent and 5 percent in 2020, but when you open the lid, you almost didn't allow her to chase? Again, Kamala Harris is a close contest within a margin of error in the contest. But the Democratic Party is already anxious. Because I expected about 3% more Trump votes. But that became true again, so all seven contending stocks went toward Trump.
[Kim Yeolsoo]
In my opinion, this election is one perilla leaf and one razor blade. That's how much I said. So actually, I didn't know Trump would declare victory so soon because he won the election. It took 8 days in 2016 alone. And it took four days in 2020. But this time, I declared victory in seven hours. So there are a lot of problems in the opinion polls. After 2016 and 2020, we showed that there are still problems despite a lot of corrections.
[Anchor]
There are many analyses on why the votes are divided. Some analysts say that American society is still conservative to accept female presidents. How do you see it?
[Bongyeongsik]
Such an analysis is correct and wrong. The right thing is that this presidential election was to choose the 47th president of the United States, and white female voters supported 45 percent and 46 percent, respectively, when Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee in 2016 and Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee in 2020. Rather, I voted 2% for Trump and 7% more for Biden, so I expected the support of white female voters because Kamala Harris is a female presidential candidate, inwardly. But what's surprising this time is that the approval rating of female voters is lower than in 2020, when President Joe Biden came out. It was not high, but low by 3%, so white female voters who believed in Hidden Harris came closer to Trump.
[Anchor]
Director Kim Yeol-soo, what do you think is the biggest reason for Trump's landslide victory?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
Two things are the key. One is that abortion-related things don't work, and in the end, the problem of illegal immigrants and inflation. In particular, I think inflation has become a problem. In fact, there must be some unfair aspects to Harris as a candidate. Because inflation was continuing with COVID-19 being accepted. As a result, the supply chain was eventually cut off, and when I saw the supply chain cut off, it was bound to be inflation. So 8%, 7%, 5%. Now it's down 2%, but if it comes that much every year, now compared to the base year, 30% inflation. Who will suffer the most here? In the end, white workers, black people, and Hispanics all suffer. And the second one is illegal immigrants. If those illegal immigrants come in, they end up losing their jobs. Even if it's not, the salary is low. These two things had a decisive effect, so I see it like this.
[Anchor]
I think everyone is doing a similar analysis. Since the economy was very difficult and prices rose a lot, many say that the Democratic Party had a difficult election.
[Anchor]
On the other hand, Harris' acceptance speech was held this morning from our perspective. I'll listen to it for a bit and continue the conversation. Seungbok was neat. I think there are also remarks aimed at Trump who objected to the results of the presidential election four years ago, how did you hear it?
[Bongyeongsik]
Kamala Harris must have been in a bad mood. Because he lost the election, but according to the original U.S. election tradition, the candidate who lost the presidential election makes a congratulatory call to the winner first. Then, the defeated candidate will come out in front of his supporters, fight well, and unite. I called our company to congratulate them. Then the winning candidate slowly comes out and talks to his supporters, and Trump doesn't even wait and celebrates his victory declaration first, so Kamala Harris tries to call him, and then I'll sleep and come out the next morning. It's that kind of style that's Trump's candidate.
[Anchor]
What will Harris do with her political moves going forward?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
In that short speech, he said he was going to do something. You may want to do that. He expressed his will to fight for the future. He showed his willingness to challenge himself again next time, but he can only do it after a difficult process. I think we just need to understand this much that we have that will.
[Anchor]
Many analysts say it won't be easy because they lost so badly.
[Bongyeongsik]
Didn't the host ask you how America changes when the broadcast starts? The correct and wrong thing is that the United States has changed. Trump isn't the first one to come out now, he's been the most influential political figure in American politics for the past eight years, whether he's a sitting president or a former president. This time, it is a good example of Trumpism becoming a state in American politics. The fact that Trump has been a major figure in three presidential elections for 12 years is not how American society changes, but because American society has become the center of Trump, we should take this as a new reference point.
[Anchor]
You mentioned Trumpism, but I said in my victory speech that I would fix the United States. What did he say he was going to fix?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
The most important thing is that the Biden administration has destroyed everything for the past four years. It means that I'm going to fix those things. The most important thing is this. I will implement an America First policy to make America great again. Then, the policy of America First should be implemented, but according to what the Biden administration did, it was not a policy of America First, but a policy that goes with the world. It was also less aggressive against China. So you're saying you're going to fix all of these things, and what was particularly important was probably related to illegal immigrants. So illegal immigrants come in and take away their jobs and they do drugs and they commit crimes. I said that I would expel the largest number of illegal immigrants ever upon taking office to prevent this from happening again. That's why I said, "I'm going to fix this America." [Anchor] We're going to stop illegal immigrants. During the first Trump administration, we also built a wall on the Mexican border.
[Bongyeongsik]
The Mexican government said it would pay for the wall, and the project continued, but it wasn't actually completed. But the president's inauguration day is January 20th. As soon as he took office, he signed an executive order the next day, showing faithfully implementing that pledge to prevent people from the five Muslim countries from entering the United States. Why Trump won a landslide victory this time. There are various risks and problems, but from the perspective of supporters, wasn't there a leader in our country nicknamed "A conscience in action" that is trusted? From the American people's point of view, there are a lot of problems, but they act. I've seen you keep your promise on how to act for four years, so I'm sure you'll see what you're going to get.
[Anchor]
Everything was America First.
[Bongyeongsik]
Kamala Harris' position was unclear. The four years of the Biden administration did not show a blueprint for whether it was a failure or a success or how it would go forward, so this uncertainty led supporters to turn to Trump.
[Anchor]
Then, there is one star who received as much attention as Trump yesterday. Let's take a look at the screen. Let's take a look at the screen we prepared. That's Elon Musk. This is a picture that Elon Musk posted on social media on the day of the election. It's set in the Oval Office of the United States and it's holding a sink like this. And let that sink in, let the sink in. I said this. It's a kind of meme that reminds me of the scene where I entered the headquarters with an actual sink when I took over Twitter last year. Considering that he humorously emphasized that he would become the new owner of Twitter at the time, there is an interpretation that the video implied that Trump, whom he supported, became the new owner of the White House. When he declared victory yesterday, Trump also poured out praise for Musk. Let's listen to it.
[Anchor]
Many media outlets have expressed that they have succeeded in betting, but will Elon Musk also join the ranks? Will he be a minister?
[Bongyeongsik]
First of all, I said I'd leave it to fix the corrupt, inefficient federal government. Only when a businessman's mind goes in can public officials come to their senses. I think I'll leave this to you, and I actually said I made a big bet, but you're right. Because you supported the Trump campaign with 250 billion won in your own money, our country's money, right? It seems like a lot of money, but Elon Musk has 355 trillion won in personal assets because he is the richest person in the world or in the top three. Even if you give 250 billion won to Trump, it's less than 0.3 percent of your assets, not even 3 percent. How Much Are Tesla Shares Up?
[Anchor]
It's up 15%.
[Bongyeongsik]
So I invested 250 billion won and have already made a profit several times.
[Anchor]
So when Tesla is the No. 1 EV market in a way for EVs, can Trump give preferential treatment, actually?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's possible. Why would Elon Musk go all in here? As Professor Bong said, I paid 250 billion won, and I even paid a million dollars in lottery. Not only that, but isn't there a cheerleader?
[Anchor]
I followed the campaign trail and campaigned.
[Kim Yeolsoo]
I think there are two reasons why I went all-in. One is related to Tesla and one is related to SpaceX. So what's related to Tesla goes beyond Tesla's current regulations on electric vehicles or its refusal to grant subsidies to electric vehicles. The most important thing is the self-driving of electric vehicles. Then there are a lot of regulations related to autonomous driving. You have to break it down, but this is possible if you chair the innovation committee.
The second one is SpaceX. If it's like SpaceX, there are a lot of regulations here, too. They say they can get rid of these regulations if they become the chairman of the innovation committee. Then you can get a lot of energy from your business, so I think you're all-in here. In my opinion, I think that a genius recognized a genius, but a nerd recognized a nerd.
[Anchor]
It's so different from the situation in our country.
[Anchor]
Something unimaginable happened. I'm interested in who will be in the Cabinet. Some analysts say that family power will be stronger in the second Trump administration.
[Bongyeongsik]
That's right. But through family politics, we had an election campaign this time. His daughter-in-law even served as a member of the campaign finance committee, and if you look at the screen earlier, Elon Musk was there, but he has sons, but Vice President JD Vance is also young. You can't just look at Trump. The reason why I said that Trumpism is now a reality of the United States is that President Trump is old. He is 78 years old, but the people around him are relatively young. JD Vance is the youngest senator. 39 years old. His sons are young, Elon Musk is young, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who was mentioned as a vice presidential candidate.
So Trumpism does not end with Trump's second term, but it also passes on to the next generation of Republicans. Earlier, Kamala Harris asked if she would run for president again, but the Democratic Party looks younger, but there are relatively few candidates.
[Anchor]
Do you think your family will actually be on board or take up a major position?
[Bongyeongsik]
It's up to President Trump. But it's Marco Rubio, the Florida senator we talked about earlier. Because you entered as one of the three final vice presidential candidates and under the original U.S. Constitution, the vice presidential and presidential candidates should not be from the same state. However, since candidate Trump's house was in Florida, he was not nominated as a vice presidential candidate. So I will take on a big role, especially in the US-Japan alliance and the foreign policy that I have studied a lot about Japan's collective self-defense, so I think I will take on a big role in the Indo-Pacific strategy in the future. The second is Tim Scott, a black South Carolina congressman. And Governor Kristinum, a woman leader, so I think he'll be in the limelight. And North Dakota, one of the last three vice presidential candidates. These people are clearly expected to play a big role in Trump's second cabinet, as some say that President Trump has given him a personal message to take over the administrative post instead of nominating for vice president.
[Anchor]
Director Kim Yeol-soo, who do you think will take on the big task in your family?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
I'm Trump Jr., so I'm the eldest son. My eldest son is 46 years old. The vice president, Vance, is 40 years old. So the person who put Vance in the position of vice president is actually his eldest son in a way. So during the first administration last time, who was the key was Ivanka, so she's the eldest daughter. Kushner, the husband of his eldest daughter, went in and joined the Cabinet, but in this case, Ivanka and Kushner were out. Rather, Trump Jr., first son. 46 years old. Isn't everyone a little active? In my view, I think I will do something when this administration is launched. It's
[Bong Youngshik]
, Kushner played a big role in the first period, but he didn't show up with Ivanka and his wife this campaign because he's a devout Jew. So if you put Kushner too far ahead of you, won't the Arab vote leave? Especially in Michigan, it was a very important swing boat layer, but it was 4%. So during the campaign, Jared Kushner bought it for me and instead came my second brother-in-law. My father-in-law is a businessman from Lebanon. So, depending on the campaign, which family will be forward-deployed. When running state affairs after winning, there is a possibility that Jews such as Kushner will play a big role in political diplomacy in the Middle East, and there are many cards for Trump.
[Anchor]
There are so many things I want to ask you both because it's almost time, but I think I have to end it here. Starting with whether to meet with Chairman Kim Jong-un once again, we have prepared various questions about whether the war in Ukraine will end early, but due to the time relationship, we will reduce it here and invite you both back later to talk. Bong Young-sik, a specialized researcher at Yonsei University's Institute for Unification, and Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division at the Korea Military Research Institute. Thank you.
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