Tesla, Bitcoin Surge... How Long Will the 'Trump Effect' Continue?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Jeong Chul-jin, Economic Critic

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The so-called Trump rally has continued in the stock market since former President Trump was elected in the U.S. presidential election. Tesla CEO Elon Musk's assets have increased by about 69 trillion won since the U.S. presidential election. How long will the Trump effect last? Let me point it out with Jeong Cheol-jin, an economic critic. Welcome.

[Jung Chuljin]
Hello,

[Anchor]
It's called the Trump Rally, how long is it going to last?

[Jung Chuljin]
Isn't Trump inauguration next February? I think it'll last until then. What is a little misunderstood in the public right now is that we're out because of the uncertainty, and only the United States is good, but technically, this is coming out because of Trump's certainty.

What this means is that if you look back on the first period, Trump did everything he could for his own purpose, but he did nothing he couldn't do. So it's a fear of that certainty that everything you're throwing right now becomes a reality.

The means changed but never gave up. So, if you put all the stories together, only the United States is the best. So, the stock market is also benefiting the most from U.S. companies. In detail, there is big tech, but small and medium-sized companies in the United States benefit the most, and it is called the Russell Index. I'm looking at it.

[Anchor]
Originally, it is called fear of uncertainty, but fear of certainty seems quite paradoxical. It's also called Trump's man anyway. In the case of Musk, his assets have increased a lot.

[Jung Chuljin]
It's a little meaningless to evaluate his own assets, but Tesla's stock price has soared 30% in the past three days from the time he said he was overwhelmed when he was about to win the presidential election to last Friday. It's 3.5% on the first day, 14.7% on the second day, almost 15%. The next day, it was calm at 2.5%, but Tesla's market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion as it soared more than 8% on Friday. The stock price also exceeded $320, which is strange. The combination of Elon Musk and Trump, both of them have similar tendencies.

We call them both uncertainties and exaggerated people who talk only about words, Heo Balloon, the media denigrates them, but if you look at them one by one, they are the two people who have achieved everything they have said. However, as the characters combine, there is a kind of synergy effect, I think we should look at it like this.

[Anchor]
The media is analyzing that Musk's best bet was Trump. Tesla is on a high right now, should I buy it now? A lot of people asked me that.

[Jung Chuljin]
So Bitcoin, there are a lot of things, aren't there? Now, Trump's tweets are all going up. The Korean stock market also plunged by almost 2 percent today. Hynix is also showing a sharp drop of nearly 3%, but what is linked to Trump? Elon Musk, Tesla-related stocks are only a few, and they are rising.

Even in the same shipbuilding, it is also compressed into the MRO business. Even if it's a secondary battery, only Tesla, like LNF, is rising. How long does this last? Bitcoin has exceeded 81,000 dollars and 110 million won, and many view the first ordinary crisis until he takes office and until February next year. This is a matter of timing. In terms of materials, wouldn't an inspection come out when such a roll hits a wall once? What this means is that Trump will be everything for now. Trump says, "Everything will be fine if you do it, I'm going to go with this," so the money doesn't cover the back and forth.

The reason why I said earlier is because people say it's Trump uncertainty, but behind it is Trump certainty, it's going to be braked at least once. So, counter-punch will come in at least once about his plan, and I think that's probably the first hit of the Trump rally that's unfolding now. Then what is that one shot? There must be a lot of things. It would be rebellion and retaliation from the Chinese side, but Trump hasn't done anything in earnest yet.

So even China doesn't take out the card from last week's National People's University. What will happen then? We're going to go to the Trump rally. Bitcoin will also cut a person in charge of cryptocurrency as soon as he takes office. The Bitcoin market is also free from issues, right?

But for example, a person who has more than 1,000 Bitcoin is called a whale. It's probably 100 billion. Some of them suddenly throw away, so the first difficulty comes. We are following the Trump rally in anticipation, but I think it will be an opportunity to stop the rally once there is a substantive disproving.

[Anchor]
It's February until the inauguration, but I think those who invest until then will be very distressed and troubled. I understand that Tesla is rising as a beneficiary, but there is a rumor that Musk will enter the White House.

[Jung Chuljin]
I think that's the American way. I think it's American style. Since it's his own staff, it unfolds in a way that he hires it and proudly discloses it to the public. As you've heard a lot, Elon Musk is unlikely to enter the Cabinet, the Treasury Secretary as we know it. Looking at the roles of the Government Efficiency Committee, fiscal expenditure and national debt are now a problem. So cutting spending quickly. So, it seems that it will give Elon Musk the handle of fiscal expenditure efficiency, and the second is the elimination of regulations.

[Anchor]
Is it a kind of economic president?

[Jung Chuljin]
There is a very high possibility that it will become a heavyweight. What I was talking about was that I could cut $2 trillion from my current budget. One-third of them are doing well in the U.S. economy even if they cut their hair. But the dilemma is that Trump insists on tax cuts. But I mean, there's a lack of tax revenue. But here, Elon Musk said he would start by cutting $2 trillion, and another thing is deregulation, and he's doing business. We see that as a conflict of interest, but on the American side, if it's very transparent, it's okay, because they're looking at it like this.

[Anchor]
Isn't it possible to change it to my advantage?

[Jung Chuljin]
You can change it. Change it. We have a kiln there. Investors are on this side. Then, in the areas related to autonomous driving, regulations are eliminated, and Tesla is not the only one, right? SpaceX, Starlink, and the aerospace industry are also deregulated. So money is going this way not only in the domestic market but also in the global market.

[Anchor]
I can't imagine how the policy will change if Musk enters the White House, I think there are many people who see it like this.

[Jung Chuljin]
Even now, I can't even read all the Twitter posts in a day, X.

[Anchor]
Anyway, Musk is now entering the White House, but some even say that he has been incorporated into Trump's family. Can you show me the screen? Trump's family photo was released. See? You see the familiar face on the far right. We marked it and Musk is over there. Are you saying my family should come in?

[Jung Chuljin]
It's almost like Mar-a-Lago Florita's mansion, so I'm having a party and resting every day. President-elect Trump. But there are messages that they are residing there. So it's already a family. I feel like I've become a quasi-family living with President-elect Trump every day.

[Anchor]
If such family photos are released now, it would have been quite controversial in Korea. For example, Apple companies that didn't support Trump and those companies must be nervous.

[Jung Chuljin]
However, almost immediately before the election, various sources said that big tech also tried to contact Trump's camp from behind in large part. That's why big techs also run big data themselves. So I would have thought that the situation had already been predicted, but I also think that there must be many companies that are nervous.

[Anchor]
Attention is already focusing on what kind of voice Musk will make in the future, even with Trump's family photos. There's also a voice like Musk. It is said that the president expressed his support for the voice of the senator that the Fed should intervene in its decision.

[Jung Chuljin]
Isn't that who Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Trump appointed during the first term? When I was told to keep lowering interest rates, I didn't, and when I was told not to lower interest rates under President Biden, I made a big cut of 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, Trump's story is that he will change the chairman of the Fed, and secondly, the government should also enter when the Fed decides interest rates in the future. The president said he would go in there.

We've just said things that went over the line in the eyes of the economists as we know it. Elon Musk also supports such remarks. The current Fed is fluctuating and unbelievable, so it is right for the president to go into the administration and accept opinions on this, and Trump's voice is Musk's voice like a single body. Musk's voice is also becoming Trump's voice.

[Anchor]
You're not a Powell speaker who's going to give in to this, are you? When reporters asked if he would resign, he said he would never step down.

[Jung Chuljin] It's
right. The independence of central banks is old. The history of the Fed, as it began in the early 1900s. But it's like this. Why is Trump putting such pressure when he says he will replace it even though he knows it? This is a kind of Trump technique.

[Anchor]
You're really going to kick him out, aren't you talking about that?

[Jung Chuljin]
No, but you're giving your intentions clearly to the other person. So I'm threatening not to go against my opinion when I do monetary policy in the future.

[Anchor]
So, there are predictions that the possibility of further interest rate cuts has decreased due to the Trump effect. What do you think of that?

[Jung Chuljin]
There are two things. Trump wants further rate cuts. And the Fed also very explicitly hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in December at the FOMC meeting in November. This is their story, and what the Fed is raising and lowering interest rates is the policy rate called the base rate. But what's wrong with the market is that the market interest rates that actually apply to us, to the American people and to our financial consumers, regardless of the Fed's standard interest rates and policy rates, move in the opposite direction.

So, because of Trump's tariff policy, fiscal expansion, and inflation-causing trends, market interest rates are soaring, so they don't cut it. Not in this dimension, but even if you cut it, you won't be able to set the market interest rate. Market interest rates can jump. This dilemma and this risk exist together.

[Anchor]
Should I put it down more?

[Jung Chuljin]
We're going to cut interest rates in December anyway. The problem with lowering interest rates in December is that if the Fed cuts interest rates, market rates should also fall. But this is a big problem when it doesn't come down. Since the effect is bound to be less effective and this is not what the American people want, it is likely that the Trump administration, which is starting anew with Trump, will also be very concerned about how to lower this market interest rate and the US government bond interest rate.

[Anchor]
I talked about the Trump effect with critic Jeong Cheol-jin today, and finally, all of our big players in the stock market have left. You don't have to worry?

[Jung Chuljin]
You have to worry. I can't help but not do it. As I said earlier, America First, it's not Ma. Right now, it's Only America. Don't you think money is smart because there is only America left? We were all crossing to the U.S. right now. In Korea, Samsung Electronics has come to this situation, and as I said earlier, if the domestic stock market and the recent domestic stock market continue to be related to Trump's Twitter and Elon Musk's company, they are all selling whether the performance is good or bad.

The related thing is that our director, the K stock market, is really in a bad situation because even if the performance is bad or there is nothing, it is just soaring. I can't leave it like this. The financial investment tax has been abolished, but the authorities should keep in mind that if we do not make it here with all our might, whether it is a commercial law revision or value-up, it will be a crisis that could fall into the worst stock market in the world's G20.

[Anchor]
We need to find momentum for a rebound quickly. This has been Jeong Cheol-jin, an economic critic. Thank you.