[New Square 10] "Trying to figure out the information"... "500 dead" North Korean military, expanding the front line?

■ Host: Um Ji-min Anchor
■ Starring: Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
For the first time, the National Intelligence Service has officially confirmed intelligence on the "500 North Korean soldiers were killed." The range of North Korean troops seems to be expanding. Let's take a look at the current war in Ukraine. With Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Welcome.

[Yang Wook]
How are you?

[Anchor]
As I said, the National Intelligence Service has officially confirmed the death of North Korean soldiers, but first of all, how much of the specific damage or injury was known?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, there were reports that about 500 North Korean soldiers were killed. It seems to be such a claim that the storm shadow attack hit the troop gathering area, but this part has not been confirmed honestly. And there are a lot of such contents coming out through specific stories, such as Telegram channels, and especially if you look at the contents exchanged by pro-Russian affiliates, it should be seen as something that Russia actually acknowledges. In any case, when these things are put together, 18 people were killed and 33 injured in the storm shadow attack. One of the dead was a high-ranking Russian general. It also included the death of the deputy commander of the Leningrad Military District, which is believed to be Lieutenant General Soluchak. Three North Korean soldiers were among the 33 injured. Two of them seem to be military officers, and at least one of them is a very high-ranking officer. In other words, it is presumed to be a general. This is where it is said that three people, Shin Geum-cheol, Kim Young-bok, and Lee Chang-ho, entered Russia, and among these three people, Shin Geum-cheol might have been injured.

[Anchor]
This is Shin Geum-chul, the major general of the People's Army, and what kind of person is this person?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, not much has been known about Shin Geum-cheol, but when I put some information together, it is presumed that he is the director of the general staff's operations department. As you know, the General Staff corresponds to the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in our military. If you say the chief of operations, wouldn't he be the director of operations? So basically, what the mission is is to plan and execute military operations, and it's a very important role in drawing the shape of the entire war.

[Anchor]
strategizing and directing

[Yang Wook]
That's right. But in the end, why did this important person go? It appears that they were sent to learn the lessons of the war in Ukraine. So for example, isn't there a lot of interpretation of whether to send it or not? Since North Korea is conducting an enemy war, it will have to focus on a relatively larger part of it. In particular, probably starting with how to manage and operate the entire war, a very small level, that is, a comprehensive learning of various things, starting with the tactics of a small unit, but this number of people should be included. It's shown like this. So the area that was eventually attacked itself is known as the Marino area, which is known as the 12th attack. That's why I think he attacked the place where the telegraph command is. That's why I think these high-level deaths or injuries came out.

[Anchor]
If you look at the news right now, the scale of the injuries is quite specific, 500 people, and it also comes out in detail about who got hurt. It's intelligence during the war, but how can you figure this out?

[Yang Wook]
As I said earlier, basically, there is a huge level of interception. It's the same about Ukraine, but it's also gathering a lot of information about Russia. This collection is not only about cell phone calls or telegrams, but also about eavesdropping information that we have, or public information. It's like a news report that says there have been some actions or movements, or it's like a group chat room for us. That's the Telegram channel, and I can tell you that I'm drawing a picture of information through conversations within the Telegram channel. I understand that the amount of information is huge, so it is understood that the information operation is carried out to collect important information while even receiving AI help.

[Anchor]
The intelligence war is also underway, but the Ukrainian chief of staff also confirmed that the North Korean military is engaged. However, according to the contents, he had to show his ID as a member of a general unit and disguised himself as a native of the Russian Far East, so what role does the North Korean military play here specifically?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, the North Korean military is talking a lot about how the storm troop went, but if you look at the unit they were actually assigned, they were assigned to the brigade belonging to the airborne army or the brigade belonging to the naval guard. Airborne troops, that is, a kind of airlift unit, but rather than an elite special unit like our special forces, this is more like an elite guard unit focusing on attacks, charges, and breaking through the front lines. It's the same with the Navy infantry, if we were to say it's the Marine Corps. So, when I was assigned to these two units, I took on the role of a stormtroop that took on the role of a breakthrough on the front line. Because it is a storm troop, the damage is quite large, but the nature of the Zepa attack is different. When Russia attacks Ukraine, there are multiple 1 wave, 2 wave, and 3 wave attacks, and there are a lot of victims in the 1 wave attack.

That's why it's even described as a single-use discharge, and the single-use discharge was called Stormjet in the past. Prisoner, so it was Suin Unit. The Stormjet was operated under a system that recruits prisoners from all over the country and releases them if they participate in the battle for a certain period of time, and it has actually achieved some results by playing a big role on the front line since January 2023. The Stormjet troops are now all dead or out of service, so the unit itself has been disbanded and is entrusted to the mercenary unit because it is called StormV.

So, if a disposable discharge goes in and is found to be sacrificed, the special discharge attacks with firepower and arranges the location of the enemy and the Ukrainian army, and this charge is the airborne forces and naval guards. As a result, it does not suffer as much damage as disposable discharge, but the charge discharge is also significant. So, even within the Russian military, the damage to the airborne forces and naval guards that are currently being damaged by this charge is great, so the unit is almost disintegrating. As a result, it is assumed that they receive similar characteristics in the end because they need to fill up the supplementary bottles, but they can't easily receive the supplementary bottles, so that they are putting the troops in the front line by receiving the number of North Korean storm soldiers.

[Anchor]
It's the same with the North Korean military being deployed. In addition, according to foreign media reports, there are reports that Putin will write off more than 100 million won in debt if he participates in the war. Looking at that, I guess the situation of Russian troops is not good?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. Before the war in Ukraine, the Russian military had 900,000 active personnel. Considering Russia's past troops, it's not a big deal, but in the second half of 2022, it's going to be a difficult situation as it's pushed from the front line, so we're adding 300,000 more people. So we have 1.2 million viewers. But of course, it's 1.2 million, but I know that what's actually being put into the war in Ukraine is about 700,000 of them. The problem is that as the war continues, the number of personnel is exhausted, and eventually, it is not easy to recruit troops, so there are a lot of mercenaries. Then, it was not enough, so it attracted the North Korean military.

In any case, Russia is now trying to recruit 300,000 more people to overcome this situation. So, we are aiming for around December this year, and Russia's goal is to have about 1.5 million active personnel. It's a very natural outcome for Russia to try to draw and use North Korean troops, especially considering this situation where the fighting still has to continue until this number of people is filled, and then it's very important to end the war, like the battle on the Kursk front. In the end, I can tell you that North Korea is extremely likely to have made various commitments to understand the needs of Russia and to benefit as much as possible.

[Anchor]
The U.S. role in ending this war will also be very important, and Mike Walz, the nominee to lead foreign and security policy in the second Trump term, said this. President-elect Trump has reportedly expressed his intention to hold peace negotiations, fearing the escalation of Ukraine, so what do you think this is?

[Yang Wook]
Basically, if you look ahead to this, you see a lot of people who are involved are very curious about Trump's intentions. Zelensky even said to Trump, "Please present the armistice plan," and Russia's inner mind must be very happy. Because what they've always been most embarrassed about was that the U.S. was providing not only huge funds but also weapons, and they were exhausting the Russian military, which would be cut off when they entered the Trump administration. That's actually the case. You can think of Mike Waltz as representing Trump's position after all.

In the first place, all of Trump's second-term figures were basically based on loyalty to Trump rather than his thoughts and judgments, so he probably drew a picture that embodied Trump's instructions. After all, what Trump said was that at first, he gave too much Ukrainian money. He criticizes that he is providing too much support, not at all, but at some point, he changes the message to end the war at all as the so-called election campaign begins in earnest in 2024. That's why I'm talking. When I take office, I've talked about stopping or shutting down the war within 24 hours, or even committing to it before I take office.Ma is now turning this into Biden's sudden announcement of $2 billion in funding and taking the war.

After all, it is relatively unlikely that a cease-fire or ceasefire will occur before Trump's inauguration, but it is very clear that after taking office, he will surely impose control over support funds and various support measures for Ukraine, so Walz's remarks reflect that trend in the end. His remarks are actually very soft. He is concerned about escalation, and then expresses his intention to mediate peace negotiations. But will Zelensky accept the mediation? If you don't accept it, I'm going to stop funding, and in this way, it can be described as intimidation or solicitation.Ma seems to think that this way is enough to move Ukraine in the desired direction.

[Anchor]
What we are curious about at this point is the possibility of our military intervention, but Russia is in a very sensitive situation. First of all, there are concerns about the next president of the United States and relations with Russia, so what choice will our military and our government make?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, what I'm a little frustrated about is whether there is any relationship left with Russia. I don't know. There are still some assets left in our companies economically, but I have to take a very cautious approach in this area.Ma believes that if South Korea continues to accept this in a situation where Russia is now helping North Korea unilaterally and even trying to recognize North Korea's nuclear weapons, there is a high possibility that it will be seen as a country that can do nothing no matter what we say about Russia and how we approach it later.

[Anchor]
Russia said that the relationship between the two countries could be completely destroyed.

[Yang Wook]
In fact, isn't the relationship between the two countries already destroyed? It doesn't matter that not only North Korean troops are sent, but even North Korean military equipment is used there, and the North Korean military has learned the ability to attack us through the war, but now Russia is not fighting against us, but against Ukraine. If that's the case. If North Korea attacks us, will Russia not attack us? It's not a problem that can be easily seen and approached. We need to clarify our attitude toward Russia to prevent North Korea from thinking about something else and trying to do something about us.

So, right now, there is a limit to providing large-scale weapons support or these things because we can't afford them, and of course, we have to protect the threat of North Korea.Nevertheless, an anti-aircraft weapon system that can protect at least a defensive weapon system, i.e., a city center or something like that, even with symbolic measures. So, I personally think that we should provide weapons systems that can prevent civilian damage, even something like this.

[Anchor]
France can now permit the use of missiles, following the United States and the United Kingdom, and they have indicated that they can permit the use of Scalp missiles, so what is this?

[Yang Wook]
It's the same weapon as a storm shadow. This is the original Storm Shadow, or Scarf. This is a cruise missile jointly developed by Britain and France. So it's an air-launched cruise missile that can be fired from aircraft and fighter jets. Isn't it known that the range is 250km? That's for export. It's because we put a range limit on exports. Those used by the British and French forces have a range of 550 or 560 kilometers. In fact, Russia is very sensitive to the use of storm shadows because the range for its own forces used by the British and French forces exceeds 500 kilometers. Because it can strike Moscow within 500 kilometers of any Ukrainian-occupied Kursk region or other Russian border area. So, because they are very afraid of hitting Moscow, it can be said that they carried out a very unreasonable attack such as the launch of an IRBM, or a hypersonic intermediate-range missile, last time.

[Anchor]
Let me point this out, too. Alex Wong was selected as the key man for Trump's second North Korea policy, and this person was in charge of all the work at the U.S.-North Korea summit. However, didn't Chairman Kim Jong-un draw a line in future dialogue by saying that he recently went all the way to the United States? Why did you choose Alex Wong in this situation?

[Yang Wook]
Actually, I don't want you to look at it too big. Basically, it should be seen that Alex Wong himself is that loyal to Trump. First of all, the people appointed now should be seen as those who have pledged their unlimited loyalty to Trump. And then Alex Wong was actually a working-level worker. And this is the only person that I remember from the people who participated in the U.S. summit. But in fact, you should say that it's been changed to a cadaver. It's like this. It's not about Alex Wong, but if Trump talks to North Korea unconditionally and tells him to find something, he will go and if Trump says, "This is not it, don't do it," he won't move.

[Anchor]
In the end, it depends on Trump's will?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. So of course, it's important to see the movements and tendencies of each of these figures, but let me tell you that it's much more productive to focus on how the Trump administration itself actually thinks and moves.

[Anchor]
Loyal people, I see. So far, I've been with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute of Policy Studies. Thank you.