[New Square 10] 20cm of heavy snow in Seoul...Snow and rain across the country until the morning of the day after tomorrow

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won, Anchor Um Ji-min
■ Starring: Anti-Sung YTN Disaster Advisory Committee

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.


[Anchor]
Let's take a closer look with an expert on heavy snow conditions. Anti-Sung YTN Disaster Advisory Committee. Please come in.

[Planar]
Hello,

[Anchor]
I think I originally expected a maximum of 8cm, but it's well over double. Why did you fall so much when you piled up 20cm?

[Planar]
First of all, it's hard to forecast snowfall. Let me tell you that first. Yesterday, the Korea Meteorological Administration predicted 3 to 8 centimeters toward central areas such as Seoul, especially toward Seoul. I saw the place where it fell as much as possible up to 10cm. Currently, Seoul has fallen by more than 20cm, especially for two days, and if it comes by tomorrow, there is a possibility that the snowfall will increase by 10 to 20cm in the future.

There is such a significant error. The biggest reason for this big error is that the front came out yesterday. When the front escapes and the Siberian high pressure expands after that, snow clouds made of sea level vehicles are usually created on the sea side. Snow clouds made by the difference in sea temperature and air temperature are created, and it usually snows a lot in Seoul as the Siberian high pressure expands.

Because it usually comes in through the northwest wind, only Chungcheongnam-do, Jeolla-do, and Jeju get heavy rain in the atmosphere. This time, it was quite unique and went all the way to Gangwon-do with the metropolitan area. I came in by the west wind. What this is is that a goal was made as the high pressure expanded, a goal that was rarely seen. As this valley was created, there is a temperature difference between the northern and southern air, which makes it more unstable. Actually, it was hard to predict this, but there's that aspect.

Isn't the temperature a little high for the second one? Even though the Siberian high pressure came down, it was now around 0 degrees, so it could contain more water vapor. Third, the sea temperature in the West Sea is very high. As it is high, it seems that the fact that it supplied more water vapor caused much more snow than expected.

[Anchor]
We haven't had this much rain in Seoul in recent years, have we?

[Planar]
The last time it fell was on January 4, 2010. At that time, 25.8cm fell, but as I said earlier, in Seoul, it's very rare that there's so much snow over 20cm. In the past, we used to make snowfall if it came a lot. Recently, even if 50cm of snow comes, we only observe the snow melting and accumulating in the current observatory. According to the new theory, it has occurred five times since 1956. More than 20cm. So it usually happens once every 14 years, so it happened in 2010, so it happened in 2024, and this time again in 14 years. It's very rare.

[Anchor]
It has already accumulated a lot since early this morning, but it was 7 a.m. when the Seoul Metropolitan Government upgraded it to the second stage of snow removal measures. It was almost the first time I went to work, wasn't it late?

[Planar]
It's quite late. I didn't bring my car from home because I was coming to the YTN broadcasting station today, and I took the bus, and it was a little past 4 o'clock. Even then, more than 10cm of snow had already fallen in Seoul. However, if it is more than 5cm a day, it is a heavy snow warning. In particular, traffic disruptions occur even if you drop more than 5cm in the Seoul metropolitan area.

So what I said yesterday on YTN is that there will definitely be a chaos at work today, so you have to be prepared. It's going to snow a lot in the Seoul metropolitan area. I told you that, but the snow removal headquarters of the Seoul Metropolitan Government did it, and it went to level 2 even though a preliminary warning was issued in January this year. So, even though it hasn't snowed much, nearly 10,000 people will be mobilized in the second stage. Nearly 1,500 snow removal equipment are also mobilized. But I almost couldn't feel it because I was mobilized and already sprinkled salt. When I came out at 4 o'clock today, the road was completely messed up. So I think it's a little late to deal with it.

[Anchor]
I'm sure a lot of people on their way to work felt it. For now, we're in a lull for a while, how about snow in the afternoon, and should we get more snow?

[Planar]
First of all, the snow clouds keep coming in, but the temperature rises slightly in the afternoon, so there is a possibility that it will fall as sleet mixed with snow and rain. And in the case of this anomalous snowfall, it always falls strongly, especially at night or at dawn. I'm weak during the day. It is a pattern that shows a lull, and characteristics fall and then a lull and fall. It's not a pattern that keeps coming. So first of all, I think the daytime will be built up as it melts.

First of all, in the case of roads, the main road is almost melted and some of it is a little over there. The problem is that the side streets and slightly sloped and high areas are stacked as they are. It doesn't melt there. So, especially between tonight and tomorrow morning, a lot of snow is expected in the central part of the country. If that happens, there is a possibility that your area will freeze and the temperature will be even lower than today. The temperature will continue to drop tomorrow morning or during the day tomorrow, so especially tonight when I get off work, I think it will start to snow again. Anyway, I hope you use a lot of public transportation.

[Anchor]
I think you need to be careful on your way home from work today and especially on your way to work tomorrow. Then how much more snow will it snow from your way home to work tomorrow?

[Planar]
The Korea Meteorological Administration now expects Seoul to come up to 10cm more in the future.

[Anchor]
It's half of what we got off today, right?

[Planar]
That's an expectation and it could come more. Because if the snow freezes just by looking at 5cm, chaos will occur. Cars can't move in places like Seoul. That's why I made it 5cm. But we've been forecasting for a long time, but if it's 10cm, would it come that much? That's what I'm saying. But once again, I paid 10cm by tomorrow, so you can see it at least and come more.

[Anchor]
Then, is it better to respond more quickly than the forecast?

[Planar]
That's right. At the beginning of this year, the Seoul Metropolitan Government's Snow Removal Countermeasures Headquarters did the ancestral rites very quickly. But I think it's a little late today, but I hope we can do this quickly.

[Anchor]
Earlier, the committee member said that it fell a lot mainly in the Seoul metropolitan area, Gangwon area, and central area as a result of the goal. Is there a possibility that the area where snow falls now will expand further?

[Planar]
I'm going down a little bit south from tonight. For example, the area where it snows a lot is north of Seoul, including Seoul. So it goes all the way to Gangwon-do. However, the southern part of Gyeonggi-do didn't come much right now, but the southern part of Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheong-do, and now the eastern part of Jeollabuk-do are down, and it will expand to western part of Jeollabuk-do, and then northern part of Gyeongbuk.

[Anchor]
They say it's heavy because the snow this time contains a lot of moisture. Why is this custom made?

[Planar]
It's the temperature difference. So what is our custom and construction? Construction is the opposite of conventional theory, but if you look at it, you may not have seen it. We used to be cold, so there is snow like rice flour. It's very small, but now it's snowing heavily. So if you look at it with a high density, there's a lot of water vapor in the eye.

But the difference is the temperature difference. So, in the case of wet snow, it is usually made between 0 and -10 degrees Celsius. Construction is when it goes below minus 10 degrees Celsius. So, the reason why construction and wet snow are created so much by temperature differences is that the amount of water vapor is usually 7% different for every 1 degree difference.

Therefore, the higher the temperature, the more water vapor it contains, so it has the characteristic of increasing density and becoming heavy because it contains more water vapor in the eye. So when construction is done, the volume is the same. When construction fell, there was little damage or damage, but the snow was really humid today, especially when I touched my eyes.

The reason is that this morning, it was 0 degrees in Seoul. In addition, the same wet theory is very heavy because the enormous water vapor produced on the sea side is brought in. Usually, we say that the wet snow is two to three times heavier than the construction, but when we talk about two to three times heavier, today's case is more than three times heavier.

So in this case, it's about 1m, 1m, and it's about 3kg when it builds up 1cm. The thing we expect the most is 10m and 10m wide, and it weighs 600kg when it accumulates 5cm. So, for example, we came to Seoul 10m, 10m, and 20cm, right? If 20cm came and piled up, you can think of the weight as 4.2 tons of cars on the building.

[Anchor]
When we connected as a reporter in Gangwon-do earlier, it was a habit, so even if you shake off a tree, your eyes won't open. There are a lot of piles in the ginseng field shading foil, and if it's piled up a little more and you don't clean it up quickly, there's damage to the facility?

[Planar]
That's why army men who go to Gangwon-do on active duty say it's their job to clear the snow in winter, right? Because if you don't clean it up, it'll collapse. Most buildings. However, construction disappears if you just sweep it, but the custom is united. Since there is a lot of humidity, we have to go and get rid of it quickly in the greenhouse. It doesn't come down well. Because it's dense. So it's hard to clean up, but if you don't clean up the snow quickly in a temporary building or something, it'll all collapse.

[Anchor]
Are there any differences in construction and wet snow removal when doing road snow removal?

[Planar]
First of all, humid snow is much more humid, so it can turn into ice later, in winter. It can be a lot of ice. In the case of construction, the rate of sliding, or sliding, is high.

[Anchor]
If it gets cold again on the way home from work today, isn't there a case of freezing, especially in the case of humid snow?

[Planar]
The main road is okay because there are so many cars in Seoul, but the problem is that when small and medium-sized cities and side roads start to freeze, these things become what we call black ice or frozen roads. So it's best not to drive a car on a day like today. Especially at night, snow melts and you can't see it when it freezes. Now we're saying it's black ice. It's very dangerous.

[Anchor]
As you said, it's better to take public transportation as much as possible, but there are some people who have to drive a vehicle. What should I be careful about in that case?

[Planar]
The most important thing is slow travel. It's better to take your time. Then, when it snows so much, it's better to start at 2nd stage when you leave if it's a manual car. In the case of automatic vehicles, it is recommended to change from auto hold to winter type. Then, when snow is piled up, it's better to follow the car in front of you, along the wheels of the car. You have to follow it at a very appropriate interval. It is recommended to use the engine brake when there is a way down.

You can't stop on the next way up. So in my case, when there is a way up, the car in front of me goes down and then goes up. If it's on the way, it can't go up. And it can get pushed back. So it's good to keep that. The most important thing is to slow down if you're driving anyway.

[Anchor]
While we're talking, we're showing you the screen in real time through the road construction. The place you're looking at is Gyohang 1 Bridge on the Yeongdong Line in Gangwon-do, but if you look at this place, snow is piled up on the trees on both sides, so it's white. In addition, there are no vehicles in the case of the other school, but the snow melted to some extent on the road. However, even in this case, slow driving is unconditionally important. In particular, when you see snowflakes now, there are cases where snowflakes fly from side to side due to strong winds. Why is there a strong wind this time?

[Planar]
Since the Siberian high pressure is now expanding, when this Siberian high pressure comes down, Korea always has heavy snow, cold waves, and three strong winds. So yesterday, all the strong wind warnings were issued nationwide because the front passed through, but today, the areas where the strong wind warnings are issued are mainly coastal and mountainous areas. Even so, strong winds of more than 15m are expected in flat areas, so wasn't the wind very damaging?

In the case of yesterday. Especially today, as I said before, if the snow is piled up in a tree or something, it breaks all the branches. Pine trees break a lot. There is a high possibility that such cases will occur a lot and the facilities will be damaged a lot due to the wind. So these facilities need to be firmly fixed again.

[Anchor]
We continue to show you the road situation, and you pointed out the behavioral tips that road control is important and it is important to use public transportation if possible. It's the first snow of the year, but it snowed a lot from the first snow. Will it snow a lot this winter, how about it?

[Planar]
According to the Korea Meteorological Administration's three-month long-term forecast, December and January are less than usual. In February, we expected more than usual. Anyway, there are a lot of conditions that can come and a lot of conditions that can come. I think that's what I predicted. But the problem is that the Korea Meteorological Administration predicted last week that it would not come much in December, but it came tremendously from the first snow. In fact, if it snows 20cm in winter, it's 20mm even if it's converted into rain. That's a lot of winter precipitation.

So, first of all, I think it will be similar to the average year. I don't think there will be at least a few. This is because in Korea, snow falls in winter as the Siberian high pressure expands. The second is when the pressure trough passes through and falls, there are two things.

So, when the Siberian high pressure comes down, it snows a lot on the east coast, west coast, and Jeju. When the barometric valley passes south, it usually snows a lot in Busan or the south, and when the northern barometric valley comes down, heavy snow also falls, although not many. It's like this. Anyway, it seems that the pressure trough will pass periodically this winter as well. First of all, it is expected to snow nationwide as the barometric pressure trough passes again next Monday. So it doesn't look like there's a lot of snow this winter. I think it's expected to be about a normal year.

[Anchor]
Commissioner, last summer, we often talked about abnormal climates and abnormal climates, but as soon as winter begins, things are happening that are beyond prediction. In particular, in the case of yesterday, hail equivalent to beans fell for about 2 hours in the afternoon in the mountainous area of Gangwon-do, but this is also an unexpected part, right?

[Planar]
It's actually really unusual. Because in the case of hail, it is usually May or October. That's why it doesn't fall in the summer. Hail doesn't fall in the middle of winter. So, it only falls in the season when it gets hot and then cold. Hail can be created when we are below zero at about 10,000 feet meteorologically, or 3,000 meters high. But in the case of yesterday, the front was quite passing, and very warm air came into the southwest, and it was the upper part of the north, that is, the upper part of the middle. It's not a very high floor. The cold air came down from there. So, as I bumped into it on the front line, the time I bumped into it was around 12 o'clock yesterday. As a result, there is a very unstable atmosphere.

[Anchor]
It used to hail for about two hours from 12 o'clock...

[half-term]
It was about 2 hours. Then, when the atmosphere becomes very unstable, thunder and lightning are made, and when it becomes more unstable, hail is made. That's how the hail was made. But I've also been a forecaster for a long time, but I don't remember hail at the end of November.

[Anchor]
We continue to face unusual weather events, but if you think about it last winter, there were cases where people were isolated because it snowed so much in the mountains of Gangwon-do. It will be difficult for this winter to have strong and heavy snow like last winter, but can you predict it?

[Planar]
In the case of today, as I said earlier, since it has a weak bone shape, strong eyes continue to enter Gangwon-do by riding the west wind. So, if you think about it by tomorrow, Gangwon Mountain is expected to snow more than 30cm, but in fact, when it's isolated like this, it's when it snows more than 50cm. When it snows more than 50cm like this, it is usually when the east wind comes in. When the east wind comes in, Gangwon-do is the Taebaek Mountains, so heavy snow is due to the topographical influence.

So earlier this year, more than 50cm and 60cm fell, isolating many areas. In this case, if the cold high pressure comes down to the east rather than the west, there is a possibility that enough heavy snow will fall on the east coast this year. It's the difference between which way you come. If the high pressure just comes down to the west, the west coast and Jeju will have heavy snow. If the high pressure escapes to the east, heavy snow falls on the east coast. So now, no one can predict which way it will come, right?

However, I think the weather will be quite volatile this winter. So, it's not that severe places change short, but it's cold for about 7 to 10 days, and then it's cold for about 10 days this time, right? It's cold from yesterday until next Thursday, so it's cold for about 10 days. After that, I think it will be hot again for more than 10 days and then it will change like this, after I've been analyzing it this year. Then, when the cold comes down, Gangwon-do is likely to experience quite heavy snow.

[Anchor]
Then, you should be prepared for all the east or west based on the mountain range.

[Planar]
That's right. I know that areas with a lot of topographical heavy snow have a lot of heavy snow, so those areas are usually prepared, but the problem is actually the biggest problem in areas like Seoul that don't have that much heavy snow.

[Anchor]
When the novel "The First Snow" passed last week, it was winter and there was even a forsythia bloomed. As you said, will the volatile weather continue this winter when the season continues to be warm and then cold?

[Planar]
That's how I see it. Of course, it's not time for forsythia or cherry blossom to bloom. So this is what we call a sudden enlightenment. It's a flower that blooms. There were a lot of random flowers like this this this year. In the end, the volatility of the weather is the main cause of the sudden flowering of the flower trees. Especially this year, isn't there a huge heat wave in the summer? Next, this heat wave had the highest temperature in September. October was also the second highest ever.

The trees are stressed out because the temperature is so high. Therefore, these ecosystems usually show such characteristics when under excessive stress. So in the past, when I looked at the data, even when such random flowers appeared, there were random flowers in a year when the weather was changing a bit. I think this year has that effect as well. Also, this year is expected to be a winter with such weather volatility.

[Anchor]
There were many observations that it would be very cold this winter, but according to the recent forecast made by the Korea Meteorological Administration, it would be warm in December. What is the reason for this change in outlook?

[Planar]
The most important thing is that the forecast changes. Because don't we see the forecast five days ago? I have to go somewhere, but it's a big deal because the forecast says it's going to rain. But when I checked again 3 days ago, it's not raining and cloudy, but when I saw it again a day ago, the weather was nice. Because the longer the lead time, the more inaccurate the forecast becomes. So the closer you get, the more accurate the forecast is.

So, for example, the Korea Meteorological Administration makes a three-month forecast in September, October, and November, but it usually makes a three-month forecast, so when making the October forecast, only November, December, and January were released. The forecast was made in November, so December, January, and February, so the winter forecast came out. So when I forecasted last month, I predicted that December would be cold. However, this month's release seems to be a little warm in the whole winter anyway. December and January are similar to the average year. There are a lot of factors that look at whether it's going to be cold or warm seasonally, even though we've changed our forecast like this.

So some elements will be very hot, some will be cold. How you judge that is, after all, what forecasters do. So last month, there are a lot of conditions for December to be cold. So I saw that and did it, but if I look at famous models from abroad, such as the UK, the US, Japan, Europe, and so on, models come out that Korea is very warm this winter. Ensemble models and things like that. Long-term forecasts.

But in fact, in Korea, it is entering La Niña and the Arctic glacier is melted a lot. It's usually cold in these years. It's especially cold in early winter. So, it was very cold in December, 2021 and 2022. Looking at that, the Korea Meteorological Administration will probably be warm due to climate change, but wouldn't December be cold? I think that's why I made the forecast that it was cold. So the problem is that after about a month, I think we decided that the impact of climate change is greater.

I don't know because I haven't made that forecast. Because the temperature is very high all over the world. After all, wouldn't it be affected by such a high temperature? As a result, January is a little more cautiously similar to the average year, but the cold will come down from time to time, so I guess they changed it to this kind of pattern.

[Anchor]
I see. I'll stop listening to it. So far, we have been with the anti-Sung YTN Disaster Advisory Committee. Thank you.