U.S. feels very betrayed by 尹's emergency martial law."Korean Passing" start.

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: December 20, 2024 (Friday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Bong Young-sik, expert researcher at Yonsei University Institute for Unification

- Trump's 'America First' has already begun apart from emergency martial law
- U.S. wants to remove clear uncertainty over 尹's impeachment or return
- U.S.-North Korea dialogue, unlikely..Trump's mind doesn't even know Kim Jong-un
- defense costs will rise unconditionally... Trump, acting foul-mouthed
- U.S. feels tremendously betrayed by 尹 emergency martial law

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆Shinryul: Shinryul's News Head-to-head Match Part 4 begins. In today's fourth part, Trump's 2nd generation will begin soon. However, diplomacy is not easy in Korea because of impeachment. Let's connect Bong Young-sik, a researcher specializing in Yonsei University's Institute for Unification, to see how this situation can be overcome. Hello, Dr. Bong.

◇ Bong Young-sik: How are you?

◆ Shin Yul: Isn't Korea actually in a state of absence because of the impeachment? But now, Trump will be launched in a little while. So, there are concerns that you could end up as a scapegoat, so how do you evaluate it?

◇ Bong Young-sik: As you mentioned earlier, with the launch of the second Trump period, many countries are being pointed out that will be the diplomatic scapegoats of Trump's so-called America First. Let me start by saying that Korea is not the only country with the possibility of such a diplomatic scapegoat. Because it is an American priority, in terms of maximizing the interests of the United States, it does not necessarily mean that just because Korea is in such a mess due to this martial law crisis, it will not necessarily pick up Korea and make it a diplomatic scapegoat like this. The process has already begun. In addition to that, we are concerned that the ability to respond to the presidential impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol has deteriorated because of the vacancy in the head of state, but I would like to say first that such a U.S. move was expected.

◆ Shin-ryul: So other countries can be scapegoats, too. For example, Mexico or something?

◇ Bong Young-sik: That's right. Mexico and Canada have already announced Trump as the target of such a tariff bomb. So why didn't Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada go to the U.S. to meet with Trump, whose term has not yet begun? But I don't think the result of the negotiation was that good. Because what Trump released on social media after it was over, don't do that to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, and Canada join the United States. So why don't we become the 51st U.S. state? The message in this way was actually a statement that could have been a bit diplomatically problematic, but that's how much I'm going to thoroughly push through all the pledges I made during the campaign to make America great again over the next four years. That's what we're announcing. Therefore, with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, we have various difficulties in the operation of state affairs, and there are concerns about who can make decisions in the field of foreign affairs and security. It is a very difficult situation, but in the end, the answer is only to be resolved through a peaceful legal process that the entire people can understand the various worrisome situations that are currently underway in accordance with the constitutional process. That's consistent with the position the United States had last December 3rd declared illegal martial law. In the end, the U.S. State Department called martial law a serious misjudgment because there were so many unwelcome aspects of the U.S. that information that the Korean people can respect is quickly restored in accordance with democratic procedures. That message is repeated by the United States that only then can the United States actually enter negotiations.

◆ Shin-ryul: But the problem now is that we don't even know when the presidential election will take place now. So, I think it's a question of what to do until then, what do you think? What should I do? At times like this.

◇ Bong Young-sik: First of all, the political schedule is not that uncertain. It may sound like I'm forcing myself to emphasize positive things. In other words, the impeachment bill of President Yoon Suk Yeol passed the National Assembly and has now been passed to the Constitutional Court, right? So at the end of the day, under this constitution, the Constitutional Court has to come to a conclusion on this matter within 180 days, right? In the case of President Park Geun Hye, it took about 90 days. So, uncertainty does not continue without intention. Since the time of the Constitutional Court has begun, if the results come out, the constitutional level will continue as to what the next government will look like. If President Yoon Suk Yeol is not impeached, uncertainty is removed because he will be reinstated and exercise his power as president and commander-in-chief, and if he is impeached, a new president of the Republic of Korea will be born in 60 days like the last impeachment of President Park Geun Hye. Because it will eventually be done in accordance with this constitutional process, the U.S. may think that the best path under the best circumstances is to wait for a new government or a Yoon Suk Yeol president to come back with minimal variables here. Before that, I think it's too much to think that what we can do with the United States.

◆ Shin-ryul: So after all, whether a new government is launched or Yoon Suk Yeol president returns, there is not much to do until this is decided. I think you're talking about this.

◇ Bong Young-sik: It's very frustrating, but if you can stop the rain on a rainy day, you'll stop, but if not, you'll have no choice but to plan for the next time in anticipation of when the rain will stop.

◆ Shin Yul: But in the meantime, for example, President Trump is so good at Kim Jong Un. What happens if there is a dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea when we talk about something?

◇ Bong Young-sik: Fortunately, I think that's very unlikely. First, there is no change in the fact that the North Korean nuclear issue is an important U.S. security threat, but it is not the top priority in the U.S. diplomatic and security strategy. Trump himself stressed in a recent interview that the most urgent thing in the end would be an early end to the war in Russia and Ukraine, followed by an early end to the Middle East conflict between Israel and now Hamas. So now the U.S. intervention on the Korean Peninsula is at a fairly low level, and the second most important partner in the Trump administration is actually China, rather than North Korea. The U.S. is bipartisan in agreeing that China is a major U.S. competitor and that it should keep China's rise in check. This was the case during the Democratic Biden administration, this was the case during the Obama administration, this was the case in the Trump diary. Therefore, the Trump administration's active involvement in North Korea or the Korean Peninsula will take place only after a considerable amount of time. In that sense, I will tell you that there is virtually little chance that the U.S. will put up any surprise card against us.

◆ Shin Yul: But just in case. Whenever that's the time, wouldn't the U.S. become a nuclear disarmament talks when Trump meets Kim Jong-un?

◇ Bong Young-sik: That's a possibility. But when President Trump asks such a question, I will not answer it. I'm sticking to this position. For example, in an interview with NBC on the 8th, the host asked me if I would defend myself if China invaded Taiwan after you became president. President Biden broke that precedent and broke the precedent of a strategic ambiguity strategy, and said that if China invades Taiwan, the United States will defend Taiwan, right? However, President Biden's remarks were actually criticized a lot. It could give the wrong idea about Taiwan and China. He said that the remarks undermined the effectiveness of strategic ambiguity strategies, and Trump also communicated with President Xi Jinping three days ago when asked if he would defend China if it invaded Taiwan. I said this, but when the host asked me not to invade Taiwan, I wouldn't say it. I answered like this. I asked you why you wouldn't say it. Why? We have to negotiate. I have said several times that I will get along well with Chairman Kim Jong-un because it is Trump's unique diplomatic security strategy that he has all the cards and should never reveal them in order to negotiate. During the presidential election, by the way, I will have another summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un if I look back at President-elect Trump's quotes about North Korea. I've never said this. And I've never said that it's time for us to recognize North Korea's nuclear weapons. All possibilities are always open and I will produce good results. That's what we're talking about. In fact, Chairman Kim Jong-un doesn't know how Trump will step up. If you look at Kim Jong-un's recent remarks after the presidential election in the United States, there are actually no praise for Trump. And on the contrary, I've resumed my critical rhetoric of the United States as an American imperialist. And it was actually a mistake to have this negotiation with the Trump administration the other day. And he emphasized a warning message that even if negotiated again, it would not be so easy for the United States. So even Chairman Kim Jong-un is glad to see Trump elected, but it is frustrating for North Korea because Trump has yet to reveal all the bargaining cards, which have not given any specific messages about North Korea, but from our point of view, there is still no chance that he will suddenly hold a summit with Kim Jong-un in early 2025 or say, "Shouldn't we actually recognize North Korea's nuclear weapons capabilities?"

◆ Credit: But in the end, wouldn't the relationship between North Korea and Russia be a factor of consideration from Trump's point of view?

◇ Bong Young-sik: Of course. But in a way, it is ominous for North Korea to emphasize that Trump should end the war in Russia and Ukraine early. Because North Korea's economy collapsed during the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, so it couldn't do trade at all. And isn't it actually because Russia reached out to it that it was suffering under economic sanctions and it was in pain and in crisis that it survived? We had to go to war, but we didn't have enough military supplies, so we reached out to North Korea, and since North Korea has provided it, it is not enough, so we even asked for troop support, and North Korea accepted it and now North Korean troops have been sent, right? So, North Korea's so-called ransom continues to rise, and in return, North Korea received the most necessary food ingredients from Russia, and the economy has been revived, but if the war between Russia and Ukraine ends with Trump's storage, North Korea will no longer be a very important country for Russia. The ransom is gone. If so, this is not a very welcome development for the Kim Jong-un regime in North Korea. Since various variables are moving now, we have been in a very difficult situation since the declaration of martial law on December 3, but it is unlikely that the situation on the Korean Peninsula will suddenly change like this, whether North Korea suddenly provokes or the U.S. completely hits the back of the head of the Republic of Korea.

◆ Shin Yul: And one more thing. I'm going to ask the doctor, what's the defense cost?

◇ Bong Young-sik: I would say you have to pay for the defense.

◆ Shin Yul: So I'm sure you'll post a lot, right? Ten times?

◇Bongyeongsik: To sum up President Trump in a word, why do you remember President Kim Dae Jung? Didn't the supporters call him, "Our halo teacher is a conscience who acts?" when he was in the pro-democracy movement and the human rights movement? Similarly, the character Trump is an act of nonsense. I'm talking rudely, but I keep everything. If you look at the past four years of Trump's first term, the policy reflected what he said during the campaign in border blockades, immigration issues, security, foreign affairs, and security. There have been many controversies and complaints over the past four years, but President Trump won a big victory this time and won re-election because his impression as a political leader who keeps his promises was imprinted. Then a politician named Trump misnegotiated South Korea's sharing of defense costs during the last presidential campaign. You have to fix this. You have to ask for 10 times more. Korea is a money machine. It's actually hard to expect that you don't specifically demand it with a certain policy. It is expected that there will be some kind of pressure. This is also a policy change that can be done at the presidential level without going through Congress, so it doesn't actually make sense legally. It doesn't make sense to reverse it when the two governments have already agreed on negotiations for four years, but isn't it scary and close to the fist? So now, President Trump is very likely to make this an issue, saying there is a problem. Let me tell you that we need to prepare for this.

◆ Shin-ryul: President Trump is not talking about it right now, he is the president-elect now, but we shouldn't hear it in vain. But isn't there a tariff problem? Looking at this tariff issue, even though the U.S. public opinion against tariffs is increasing, Trump does not seem to budge.

◇ Bong Young-sik: The opposition to the tariffs has been high throughout the presidential campaign. But I remember that there was also a very strong voice in favor of tariffs.

◆Shin Yul: But I think I saw the news that it's changed a little now.

◇ Bong Young-sik: That's right. But isn't that public opinion constantly changing like this? But now that Trump is about to start taking power on January 20, wouldn't even the voters who voted for Trump continue to worry about whether I chose the right president? In that sense, it is expected that Trump's promised universal tariff bomb is too dangerous. It can be said that it is an expected phenomenon. But let me tell you one characteristic: protectionist policies, including the economic policy tariffs that Trump is pursuing right now. And if you look at the presence of U.S. troops in foreign countries, the demand for a reduction in the size of defense costs, the pressure on NATO, it's very similar to what the Republican Richard Nixon administration did in the 1970s. What the Nixon administration decided at the time was that the U.S. dollar and gold were linked before that, right? Wasn't it a fixed exchange rate system? So, the 1 won tax was corrected like $35, but the US economy suffered a lot of losses as the US continued to keep the fixed exchange rate system. So, since then, there have been various controversies, but it has been changed to a floating exchange rate system. So the dollar keeps changing these days, doesn't it? The exchange rate is 1,435 won. That's when it started. After that, despite various controversies, it's not a value alliance, it's not democracy, it's the end of the Vietnam War. So I pulled out during Nixon. Didn't our country send troops for 8 years? Then we should thank Korea, but rather, the Nixon administration announced the Guam Doctrine and said, "From now on, Asian countries should take responsibility for the security of Asian allies." And didn't you withdraw the 7th Division from the U.S. Forces Korea? We reduced the number of U.S. troops in Korea. So if you look at it that way, the policy of America First America Great again was already done by the Nixon Republican administration in the 1970s. A similar move is expected over the next four years. I'd like to tell you this kind of perspective during Trump's term.

◆Shin Yul: Let me ask you one more simple question. Acting President Han Deok-soo is visiting the U.S. in his own way.Do you think you need a role like this?

◇ Bong Young-sik: I can't expect much effect. I'll tell you this kind of unfortunate thing. Once again, the United States must be feeling a great sense of betrayal right now. In addition, even though I called, the foreign minister did not answer, and I did not receive a notification even though the South Korean troops moved from an ally with the U.S. military. So the Biden administration will meet something big about it because someone is coming to a Korean government that lacks representation, but it's hard to expect a new agreement, and Trump won't be very interested.

◆ Shin Yul: I see. That's all for today. Thank you. I was Bong Young-sik, a researcher specializing in Yonsei University Institute for Unification.