[News Now] Uncertainty grows in impeachment...The economy is also a direct hit.

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor, Jeong Chae-woon Anchor
■ Starring: Jeong Chul-jin, Economic Critic

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
As you can see, Chairman Chung Yong-jin came to meet with President-elect Trump. I'll talk to an economist about this. Chung Chul-jin, an economic critic, is here. What's going on?

[Jung Chuljin]
To be precise, Chairman Chung Yong-jin's connections are not Trump, but Trump's eldest son. He is known to be quite close to Trump Jr. When we call each other, what's up, bro. Don't you use the expression bro a lot? It's called that kind of relationship.

[Anchor]
Is the broom intimate?

[Jung Chuljin]
It's more than that. The meeting between Trump Jr. and Chairman Chung Yong-jin began about 10 years ago, and they got close rapidly from 7-8 years ago, especially Chairman Chung Yong-jin is a devout Christian. But Trump Jr. was also very sincere about Christianity, so he talked about it with faith, and we got very close. I'm visiting the U.S. this time because I was invited to Mar-a-Lago mansion by Trump Jr. and my eldest son for 5 nights and 6 days. I went there for 5 nights and 6 days, so of course I would have been with Trump Jr., but I would have had a meeting with Trump as well. So what is now known to the public is that he also talked to President-elect Trump over a dinner for about 15 minutes.

[Anchor]
Chairman Chung Yong-jin returned home yesterday after meeting with President-elect Trump, and we will first listen to the recording of what he said.

[Jung Yongjin / Shinsegae Group Chairman (Yesterday): As you all know, this business trip was made up of Trump Jr. invitation. Trump Jr. introduced many people, so I had a long time to interact with many people. I expressed my interest in the situation in Korea. I told them that Korea is a powerful country, so please believe and wait, and that we will quickly reach the top. As soon as the government delegation is organized, I am willing to respond when I receive a request to participate. ]

[Anchor]
Trump Jr. invited me to the Mar-a-Lago resort. Mar-a-Lago didn't call you to see the resort, did you?
What do you think it means?

[Jung Chuljin]
I think there will be a lot of things. Perhaps Chairman Chung Yong-jin had some idea. Trump's side must have had some thought. Because I saw it during the first Trump administration, but everything is negotiated and there are a lot of behind-the-scenes things outside.

It seems that the meeting of those things was not consistent. Since you're going to Mar-a-Lago Resort, doesn't Musk live there as well? It is understood that I met various greetings there.

[Anchor]
Chairman Chung told reporters, "I don't think it's his role as a civilian bridge. I will do my best as an entrepreneur. I've said that, but can it actually lead to a private bridge role?

[Jung Chuljin]
Perhaps Chairman Chung Yong-jin hesitated because of the expression of the role of civilian bridge. Because I said I would accept the government's request if the request came through the official mission. So personally, I don't think he wanted to be seen as playing. Especially at the beginning of this year, didn't E-Mart make its first restructuring in the group? Since then, Chairman Chung Yong-jin has changed a lot since January this year. So, this time, rather than being reluctant to serve as a bridge to the private sector, I read the nuance like, "If the government request team officially comes and the economic delegation is formed, I will go to the official team and work."

[Anchor]
I wonder if there was an intention to show that I was the CEO diplomatically, not the CEO who caused controversy on SNS. He said he spoke to Trump for 15 minutes. It's not a long time, but it's not a short time. Other diplomatic leaders also said they wanted to meet with Trump for a short time, so what did they talk about for 15 minutes?

[Jung Chuljin]
Fifteen minutes is a considerable amount of time. This is because Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba only lasted five minutes this time based on the phone call. President Yoon Suk Yeol was also criticized by the Japanese media for doing about 12 minutes and only doing 5 minutes. And ironically, they had a long meeting, and Prime Minister Abe's wife Akie ate together at Mar-a-Lago. That's why civilians were the longest. Next, Chairman Chung Yong-jin's 15 minutes is quite a long time, but I think I've never kept this under wraps. But they probably spent 15 minutes talking about martial law and impeachment. He talked about that and said that he talked about a country where Korea has power. I don't know if there was something or not.

[Anchor]
As a guess, wouldn't there have been investment requests?

[Jung Chuljin]
There must have been an investment request, and they must have asked any questions. However, that part is completely silent, so I think it will be confirmed later.

[Anchor]
He said he spoke with Trump for about 15 minutes, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he only briefly greeted him. Musk said he was not interested in Korea.

[Jung Chuljin]
I don't know how to express that I'm not interested, but I don't know the exact wordings. I'm very interested. Because every day, Korea is in trouble because of our low birth rate problem, Korea is in trouble. I'm very interested, but I thought that maybe Elon Musk doesn't disclose his investment plans at the business level, so that could be an expression that he's not interested in Korea. However, Chairman Chung Yong-jin also likes SNS very much, and wouldn't there be an SNS point of contact with old Twitter and X? So isn't business, especially E-Mart, trying to change its aircraft carrier by making a major shift from offline to online and e-commerce? In this regard, there were many business dimensions of SNS marketing, so there was rather a lot to do with Musk. That's what I'm thinking. It was said that the meeting time was relatively short. It's Mar-a-Lago Resort for 5 nights and 6 days, so there must have been a lot of people passing by.

[Anchor]
We can't give too much meaning to a single meeting, but since Korea's entry into the U.S. and diplomatic issues are also very important in this regard, it's not bad for the national interest to strengthen this closeness. Can we see it like this?

[Jung Chuljin] It's
right. In addition, I saw him in the first term, but the Trump-elect and Trump style itself solves everything through negotiations. Give and take, give and take. Since I'm solving problems in this way, I have a certain amount of connections that I don't know at all, and I'm always doing the next business through this channel. So, Chairman Chung Yong-jin's meeting this time, doesn't Trump Jr.'s eldest son also work at Trump's camp? It's also the next big shot. I think there's also an ambition in the political world to try. So you can see that positively. Probably, Chairman Kim Seung-yeon is also found to be Hanwha's Trump connection besides Chairman Chung Yong-jin. In my opinion, the real influencer of the second Trump period is Samsung Group Chairman Lee Jae-yong. Because in the first term, there was already a combination with Trump. Didn't you meet Elon Musk quite often? However, since Musk is the heavyweight of Trump's second term, Chairman Lee Jae-yong is not yet stepping up, and he has the ability to play a very role. Perhaps Chairman Lee Jae-yong wants to make sure that he has his second trial and does outside activities. It will be released at the end of January or early February next year, so we will have to watch Chairman Lee Jae-yong's card after that.

[Anchor]
I'm closer to the heads of companies. I think we can enter the competition, but the important thing is who will be invited to the inauguration ceremony. Isn't this important, too?

[Jung Chuljin]
So I asked Chairman Chung Yong-jin if he was invited, but he is known to have not answered. But I think it will be revealed later because it is a national secret of the United States.

[Anchor]
Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong also told me, and he is trying to expand his contact even if he has a relationship with Trump. Can Chairman Chung's visit feel like a signal to other companies?

[Jung Chuljin]
However, it may be a signal, but it doesn't work again, so other companies can't keep up with the personal connections that Trump Jr. has made this time. So today's stock market and E-Mart's stock price have already changed positively since Friday, and Shinsegae INC, these expectations are soaring. These are also what you can read about the Trump negotiations.

[Anchor]
Shinsegae Group Chairman Chung Yong-jin went to the international stage and talked about receiving attention properly. Speaking of other companies, the end of this year was quite difficult. Since we are in the impeachment process, there are a lot of things in the fog. Companies also have complaints that they don't know how to plan for next year.

[Jung Chuljin]
First of all, I'm nervous. You may ask whether the government will change or not, but isn't there a rental service for each company? One of the pillars of next year's plan is shaking because there is a task to deal with the government. The legislative part is still not completed.

And the first interest in the business world is the amendment to the commercial law that the Democratic Party's representative Lee Jae-myung is trying to lead. Since there are many things that have been said to be possible within this year and then going to next year, I think the amendment to the commercial law will be of great interest to the business community right now. However, I think our current economic opacity is more domestic than these companies. For small business owners, consumer sentiment has never recovered. Since there is no end-of-year company dinner and there are rumors that it is a gloomy Christmas, I think the opacity of that part has been hit the hardest.

[Anchor]
Let's move on to the exchange rate this time. Today, it fell to the 1440 won range, but last week, it soared to the 1450 won range. Should I say that the political aftermath is significant?

[Jung Chuljin]
And that played a part, but if we look more closely, we also see another damage to the strong dollar, the king dollar, the God dollar. The trend is coming out. On the day of the emergency martial law announcement, I shot the 1440 won range once. And I thought I would find some stability after I came down with the upper tail, but I couldn't find stability at all. The foreign exchange authorities are also intervening. It doesn't seem easy to push below 1450 won.

But the level of 1450 won is only twice in Korea's history. Both of those were great crises. During the 1997 and 1998 IMF financial crisis, and the 2008 financial crisis, it went to 2,000 won and 1,800 won, but this is the third time that it has exceeded 1450 levels, so the people and companies are very concerned about this. Obviously, impeachment and martial law issues have ignited this, but if you look at it now, the yuan is almost devastated and dull.

For us, 1450 won is the risk line, but the yuan is 7.3, and if the yuan weakens as it breaks down, the yuan is also very dangerous, but almost all of them are at the Maginot line. I think there's another impact here on pushing all of these emerging currencies as they get stronger by the dollar alone.

[Anchor]
Trump 2nd is about to launch, so it can go over 1500 degrees?

[Jung Chuljin]
So it's something that we're going to think about from here. I don't think I'm going to go to 1500 this time. Because behind the dollar's strength right now, we thought that if we let it go a little bit more, the U.S. would have been able to cut interest rates quickly. Then why would the Fed suddenly change its stance and cut interest rates when the U.S. economy is so good? This is the U.S. market interest rate. Not the base rate.

This bounces up and this triggers the dollar's strength, the yuan down, the won down, the yen down. If you look closely, Silicon Valley Bank, the top 6 and top 10 banks in the United States went bankrupt in 2023. Why did you do that then? Interest rates have skyrocketed and banks here in the United States have gone bankrupt. At that time, the level is 4.7 to 5%. However, the US interest rate is now 4.5%. So, if interest rates go up further and the king dollar and the god dollar are good, we will suffer damage, but since it will hit the inside of the US, I think the won-dollar exchange rate will stabilize to some extent around the 1450 won range.

[Anchor]
The reason why the Bank of Korea is in trouble over controlling interest rate cuts is that the Fed has started to control the pace this time. How do you think we'll decide in January?

[Jung Chuljin]
I don't think I can cut it easily. Here, when the won-dollar exchange rate is around 1,400 won, it is almost impossible for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates.

[Anchor]
Domestic demand is also at stake.

[Jung Chuljin]
It's because domestic demand is not always good to cut interest rates, but if we cut it further here, the Korean won will break the 1450 wall? It's completely empty because my stomach is empty. Then, don't we have import prices? We need to import raw materials, too. Then, the burden on domestic and small business owners will increase, so I think the Bank of Korea will also check the exchange rate of around 1,300 won. And then I think I'll cut it.

[Anchor]
It's the end of the year, and the stock market is also depressed. There's no Santa Rally right now. Christmas is the day after tomorrow.

[Jung Chuljin]
Today, it's called the supply and demand of foreigners. Net purchases are on the rise, but they are now ugly around the world. The KOSPI and KOSDAQ are at the bottom of the list at the beginning of the year. There are many reasons, but foreigners sell it too much. So by Korea, I'm leaving. Sa-da is leaving Korea, not Korea, so bye bye, so foreigners should come back. How do foreigners come back? Paradoxically, it's the exchange rate I just mentioned. If you hold Korean stocks, the won's price will fall, so regardless of the stock price, you're seeing a huge foreign exchange loss.

Then you don't have to hold Korean stocks. Rather, if you sell and buy U.S. stocks, the dollar is strengthening and the stock price is rising. That's why there is an indiscriminate dumping situation right now. But the good thing is that we have 2480 lines at the top and bottom, 2400, and this is a strong support line. PBR 0.8 is coming out like this. This time, it would be positive to break the 2300 and check that there is a strong bottom at around 2400. What we need to check from now on is whether foreigners buy Korean stocks. But how can I buy it for you? It's exchange rate stability. If you look at these two, you can see that the macro index for the stock is almost done.

[Anchor]
Foreigners are pouring out selling bombs, but the share of individual investors also fell below 50%. It could be said that they turned their eyes to the U.S. stock market, but will this trend continue?

[Jung Chuljin]
If you want to add one more to the US stock market, it's a coin. The transaction price is 13 trillion won, including KOSDAQ and KOSPI, while the coin, of course, is more than 40 trillion won, although it is 24 hours. So, many of them are using coins. In addition, the proportion of Seohak ants and the U.S. stock market is growing significantly. Individuals have no choice but to leave. Why? It's because Korean stocks are collapsing. I think it's a reaction like that, and I come back when the Korean stock market is paid for, valued up, and set the tone to a certain extent. Money always looks at the rate of return.

[Anchor]
The stock market is also bad and the sighs of small business owners are deepening. There is about a week left until this year, and the critic almost canceled the year-end party, right?

[Jung Chuljin]
That's right. Perhaps in this situation, what kind of meeting is it, they're canceling a lot like this. The government and the political community should continue to meet. This is because small business owners once set sales for a year in December. It's time to upload it, so we should join in on that. So, I think that year-end meetings are meaningful in terms of saving domestic demand as a people, not as a revelation.

[Anchor]
Let's have a year-end party. I heard that these slogans are coming out, but many people can't even set the date. There are a lot of comments like this. So far, I've talked with Jeong Cheol-jin, an economic critic. Thank you.