[Start Economy] 'Key to finding out the tragedy' flight recorder eventually goes to the U.S....Do you have a clue to finding out 9 minutes until the crash?

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Lee Jung-hwan, professor of economics and finance at Hanyang University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

[Anchor]
We deliver the latest news and economic news quickly and kindly. Start Economy, today with Professor Lee Jung-hwan of Hanyang University's School of Economics and Finance. Welcome, professor. Let's start with the details of the Jeju Air flight disaster. We are looking for the cause of the disaster, and one of the things pointed out is a concrete hill-type azimuth facility. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport seems to be looking into this, but you're looking at this part to see if it violated the construction method or regulations, right?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
You're right. In our view, I'm not a complete expert on this side, but we generally feel that it's been damaged so much. So the question of whether hitting the end of the runway became a big issue continues to be raised, and the opinion was that this was initially designed to meet regulations by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. However, in a way, as reporters continue to cover, it can be said that there was an issue that was reinforced once. Reinforcement means that the concrete structure is reinforced with an additional 15 years of age, and this is reinforced by putting concrete on it once, and the strength is stronger. It can be said that all airport facilities should be configured in a form of mitigating impact, but it is not possible to do this, and in the end, it is composed of a form that gives a stronger impact. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said at first that the installation of such concrete structures was not in violation of regulations, but it is said that the issue recently is the precise access runway. In the end, since the runway is not long, it is necessary to reexamine the regulations on whether such outer wall facilities should be placed in these areas or not. Many of these points come out, saying that it is necessary to strictly review the regulations, so we need to look at them again. It seems that there are opinions that we should look again whether this fits the regulations or not. In the end, a fuselage landing is a problem, but there are questions about whether the accident has increased as the fuselage landing hits a concrete wall as it goes straight, and there is evidence that it has been strengthened against this outer wall, but isn't this a violation of regulations rather than a problem? This runway is a short runway, but if you look at it from a short runway, you can think of this issue as whether the installation of the concrete outer wall itself is in line with the regulations or not. Apart from these issues, experts' opinions are that based on this incident, such installation of outer walls should be excluded whether they meet the regulations or not.

[Anchor]
You also mentioned the length of the runway. This must have been under construction. So, it turns out that the available distance was 300m shorter than the original length, raising regret again.

[Lee Jung-hwan]
There's a runway. It's called a longitudinal safety zone, so you have to always install a safety zone at the airport to prepare for an emergency landing, but the longitudinal safety zone will be shortened as the construction is carried out. As the area was shortened, it can be understood that the runway was reduced by 300m and the longitudinal safety zone was expanded to create such an airport that meets international standards or regulations. However, since it has been shortened like this, there is no choice but to suggest that the shorter runway has increased the disaster. In the end, it is important to go safely for a long time when making an emergency landing, as was the blunt issue earlier. The blunt issue is that the external impact, the outer wall, and the concrete is built too hard to prevent damage when an airplane arrives, and the structure is solidified. You can think of it as saying that runway issues are too short when making emergency landings.

[Anchor]
The last nine minutes are nine minutes from permission to collision, and attention is focused on finding out this part. Can the cause of the accident be identified? There is a black box, and the flight recorder, FDR, went to the United States?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
First of all, it is usually said that it is a black box, but there are two main types of black boxes: an aerial recorder and a voice recorder. It is said that an aerial recorder was found this time, but it was found in a damaged state. In particular, just because the bands were damaged, I don't have complete knowledge on this side. As the connection part was damaged, there was an opinion that if we analyze it by attaching it again in Korea, there would be a problem when attaching it, and the opinion that we should go to a place where we can investigate the manufacturer more closely and actually check it was actually moved. Since voice recorders are preserved, they are analyzed in Korea, but it is difficult to analyze aviation recorders in Korea. The reason why it is difficult to analyze is that it was damaged as I said earlier, and since this device is a key device to determine the cause of the accident, it becomes difficult to restore the contents if the records are damaged. That's why I think you can understand that I will go to the United States and conduct a more detailed investigation. In the end, it is called a failure to extract information, but it is not a problem of Korean technology because it was found damaged, but it is not a problem of Korean technology, and it is analyzed in the United States to minimize damage.

[Anchor]
Due to the plane disaster, Korean people's anxiety and fear about aircraft are growing. Maybe that's why. The cancellation of the Jeju flight ticket has continued since the disaster?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
On the 29th and 30th, it is said that about 68,000 cancellations were made in one day, and this is called an advance payment, but isn't it about 280 billion won? Of course, I understand that the cancellation would have continued the next day and the next day, but I can tell you that it was difficult to estimate because the operation was not a general operating profit, but as I said, more than 68,000 cancellations continued on the first day alone, causing anxiety. And in general, in the case of LCC, the model is almost the same. The efficiency of LCC is that there is no choice but to increase the efficiency of maintenance and offer cheap aircraft through the efficiency of operation while operating many of the same model in similar areas. Therefore, as long as you know the LCC operation model. Because it could be a defect in the plane's airframe. It's a situation where you can't go easily. Consumers also have the aftermath of the accident, but due to the nature of the LCC operation itself, it can be understood that there are many minimums.

[Anchor]
Some point out that domestic low-cost airlines have poor maintenance in the wake of the Jeju Air disaster, but looking at it, there are some problems with the lack of maintenance personnel?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
According to the regulations, there should be 12 mechanics per aircraft, but I know this came out now as of last year. There are 17 Korean Air, 16 Asiana Airlines, 11 Jeju Air, 11 T'way Air, and 11 Eastar Jet. On a 7-8-year basis, Jeju Air passed the regulations on average, but the number of people decreased a little last year and the year before last year, and Jeju Air and Eastar Jet matched, but as of last year, they did not meet the regulations. The number of flights and the number of flights are rented. I think we can guess that these situations have occurred where the number of planes is larger than the number of mechanics due to imports from abroad through lease contracts or something. However, there are many opinions that if the standards are not met, sanctions should be imposed. There are 12 people based on the number of people, but if it falls below 11, many believe that sanctions should be imposed, especially if it is not temporary, but these are situations in which the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is criticized for not having a record of sanctions since 2016. In the end, once an airplane accident occurs like this, it will be a very big accident, and it will become a very big issue to the extent that the period of national love is set now. In order to prevent it, maintenance is essential, but it seems that there are opinions that the government has less managed the maintenance.

[Anchor]
Accurate, prompt and fair investigations should be conducted. As the impeachment situation overlaps with such a disaster, there is another concern that Acting President Choi Sang-mok is now playing a single multi-person role. As a result, there are concerns about a gap in economic leadership. It was said that it was a burden on the Korean economy.

[Lee Jung-hwan]
You can think of it as having no choice but to keep talking about overload. In the end, you can understand that Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok has to act as an acting president and as an acting prime minister, and the Minister of Public Administration and Security is vacant, right? Since you have to perform some of this role, you can think of it as a lot of people saying that these situations are too overloaded. So I went to host the main conference after the plane accident this time. Originally, Korea's economy is safe as an economic control tower at the F4 meeting, and its credibility is good.
Recently, it is said that we should emphasize such an issue, but we were unable to attend this meeting and went to preside over the Central Committee meeting. What that means is that we need to focus only on the economy and provide a lot of IR, especially when it comes to economy, such as external credit issues and political issues in Korea, because we have to do too much work for the Ministry of Public Administration and Security and too much work related to the Constitution. I'm predicting that the economy will not be good again this year. Economic forecasts continue to fall at the end of last year and economic forecasts are falling this year. It can be said that it is important to recover domestic demand. Fiscal policy, cooperation with monetary policy, and financial system stability are important, but isn't it too overloading? And in the end, as these things spread, the officials under the Ministry of Economy and Finance have to go out. These departments have to go out, so there are some concerns about leadership. Rather than being concerned about leadership, it is possible to understand that there are limitations that people can do, but it is too overloaded.

[Anchor]
I think I'm really lacking even 10 bodies. We will look at the KOSPI and exchange rates this year, but they ended below the 2,400 mark at the close. And the exchange rate continues to run toward 1,500 won, what about this year's trend?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
First of all, the KOSPI was largely influenced by Samsung Electronics last year. Then the political situation in the U.S. and the situation that the U.S. has the Trump administration, and although it has not yet entered, the Trump administration will enter and tariffs will rise depending on the results of the presidential election. And because the U.S. economy is better than expected, the situation where U.S. interest rates are unlikely to fall coincides with Korea's internal problems, Samsung's competitiveness, or about 20% of the KOSPI index, and if Samsung Electronics loses momentum, it is not easy to invest elsewhere. Basically, with those things overlapping, the stock price started to rise a little at the beginning of the year if you actively pursue value-up, but since August, expectations for a rate cut have fallen a little, and then difficulties for Samsung Electronics have overlapped, so I can tell you that the stock price has fallen a lot. In the end, this year's perspective can be seen as an issue of how many foreign investors come into Korea, and if this is to work positively, foreign investors can come at a time when things such as the ban on short selling are lifted. After all, Korea's profitability itself is not bad. What it means to say that profitability itself is not bad because we exported a lot, so we exported a lot last year, so the profitability itself is not bad, so there is an environment in which foreign investors can come in. Last year, institutional environment, short selling, etc. were banned, and uncertainties in the U.S. increased, but due to growing uncertainties in Korea, it is difficult to use various strategies to solve uncertainties, and short selling strategies were considered good strategies, but they could not use such strategies. That's why it can be understood that the stock price has tended to fall. The exchange rate can be said to be a little more serious than the stock price, but it can be understood that KDI and eventually Korean economic institutions have opened 1,500 won. The story of leaving 1,500 won open is about volatility, but we believe that the U.S. benchmark interest rate in fundamentals will continue to be high despite political volatility in Korea and that Korea's benchmark interest rate will be lower this year from the Bank of Korea's monetary credit policy direction, so it can be understood that there will be issues such as the demand for the U.S. dollar will continue to be high and the won's demand will decrease. In particular, since the U.S. expects the economic growth rate to be better, even if the top is open and falls, it is not easy to go to the 1,200 won range or 1,100 won range even before COVID-19.

[Anchor]
In this high exchange rate situation, the consumer inflation rate is still above the 2% inflation target. There are rumors that January's prices are on an emergency.

[Lee Jung-hwan]
There are opinions that January's inflation is an emergency, especially in terms of food prices. I kept talking about it last year, and there were a lot of stories about pear prices rising a lot and apple prices rising a lot, but last year, when looking at food prices alone, I know that the inflation rate was very high at about 10.3%, so more than 10%. However, such a story is particularly difficult to supply and demand fruits and food products due to the overlapping climate change. You can probably understand that these things are continuously reflected in inflation. Especially, isn't there a Lunar New Year's Day this January? Before the Lunar New Year, the demand for fruits and food increases a lot. If the supply is not smooth yet, there will be no choice but to talk about gold apples and gold pears like last year, and this will drive prices. In particular, there are opinions that food prices, which are the center of the lives of the common people, will be a problem rather than general prices. Overall, however, the Bank of Korea predicts that the price level will reach about 2% this year and show a stable trend, but food prices, especially climate change, are overlapping, making it difficult to stabilize prices. In particular, when the high exchange rate overlaps, these food prices will rise because Korea is highly dependent on exports, so the two situations are not good in January this year, you can understand.

[Anchor]
I think we need to meet the supply and demand well to set prices, but I'll look forward to it. As you mentioned our exports earlier, there are bad news anyway, but surpluses and things like that are appearing through indicators. How about this year?

[Lee Jung-hwan]
Last year, exports reached 683.8 billion dollars, so it's the highest in history. In particular, it can be understood that the surplus to the U.S. reached an all-time high as a lot of black goods, semiconductors, and automobiles were sold. However, many predict that this trend will not change significantly this year, but you can understand that the Trump administration's policies are paying keen attention to what will happen. In fact, the Trump administration's recent policies will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which are often said to be closest to the United States. They are openly talking about imposing high tariffs. Although these are classified as allies in Korea, depending on how much they will be granted to allies and how high tariffs will be. In particular, automobile exports are situations that can be hit hard, so you can understand that these are situations where you have to pay attention to what happens. In the semiconductor sector, since there is so much demand such as AI transition, I don't think exports themselves will decrease, but especially when tariffs start to be imposed, they are inevitably at a disadvantage in terms of price competitiveness compared to Micron and U.S. companies. Therefore, in the end, tariffs are the most important issue, and I think I can tell you that it is a situation where we should pay attention to this as well as concerns that the US-China relationship will deteriorate.

[Anchor]
He even pointed out the industrial outlook. That's all for today. So far, I have been with Lee Jung-hwan, a professor at Hanyang University's School of Economics and Finance. Thank you.