Will the soaring exchange rate eventually break through 1,500 won?dismal economic outlook predicted by experts [Y Record]

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Lee Jung-hwan, professor of economics and finance at Hanyang University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

◇ Anchor> We will look at the KOSPI and exchange rates this year, but they ended below the 2,400 mark at the close. And the exchange rate continues to run toward 1,500 won, what about this year's trend?

◆Lee Jung-hwan> First of all, the KOSPI was largely influenced by Samsung Electronics last year. Then the political situation in the U.S. and the situation that the U.S. has the Trump administration, and although it has not yet entered, the Trump administration will enter and tariffs will rise depending on the results of the presidential election. And because the U.S. economy is better than expected, the situation where U.S. interest rates are unlikely to fall coincides with Korea's internal problems, Samsung's competitiveness, or about 20% of the KOSPI index, and if Samsung Electronics loses momentum, it is not easy to invest elsewhere. Basically, with those things overlapping, the stock price started to rise a little at the beginning of the year if you actively pursue value-up, but since August, expectations for a rate cut have fallen a little, and then difficulties for Samsung Electronics have overlapped, so I can tell you that the stock price has fallen a lot. In the end, this year's perspective can be seen as an issue of how many foreign investors come into Korea, and if this is to work positively, foreign investors can come at a time when things such as the ban on short selling are lifted. After all, Korea's profitability itself is not bad. What it means to say that profitability itself is not bad because we exported a lot, so we exported a lot last year, so the profitability itself is not bad, so there is an environment in which foreign investors can come in. Last year, institutional environment, short selling, etc. were banned, and uncertainties in the U.S. increased, but due to growing uncertainties in Korea, it is difficult to use various strategies to solve uncertainties, and short selling strategies were considered good strategies, but they could not use such strategies. That's why it can be understood that the stock price has tended to fall. The exchange rate can be said to be a little more serious than the stock price, but it can be understood that KDI and eventually Korean economic institutions have opened 1,500 won. The story of leaving 1,500 won open is about volatility, but we believe that the U.S. benchmark interest rate in fundamentals will continue to be high despite political volatility in Korea and that Korea's benchmark interest rate will be lower this year from the Bank of Korea's monetary credit policy direction, so it can be understood that there will be issues such as the demand for the U.S. dollar will continue to be high and the won's demand will decrease. In particular, since the U.S. expects the economic growth rate to be better, even if the top is open and falls, it is not easy to go to the 1,200 won range or 1,100 won range even before COVID-19.

◇ Anchor> In this high exchange rate situation, consumer inflation is still above the 2% inflation target. There are rumors that January's prices are on an emergency.

◆Lee Jung-hwan> There are opinions that January prices are on the rise, especially in food prices. I kept talking about it last year, and there were a lot of stories about pear prices rising a lot and apple prices rising a lot, but last year, when looking at food prices alone, I know that the inflation rate was very high at about 10.3%, so more than 10%. However, such a story is particularly difficult to supply and demand fruits and food products due to the overlapping climate change. You can probably understand that these things are continuously reflected in inflation. Especially, isn't there a Lunar New Year's Day this January? Before the Lunar New Year, the demand for fruits and food increases a lot. If the supply is not smooth yet, there will be no choice but to talk about gold apples and gold pears like last year, and this will drive prices. In particular, there are opinions that food prices, which are the center of the lives of the common people, will be a problem rather than general prices. Overall, however, the Bank of Korea predicts that the price level will reach about 2% this year and show a stable trend, but food prices, especially climate change, are overlapping, making it difficult to stabilize prices. In particular, when the high exchange rate overlaps, these food prices will rise because Korea is highly dependent on exports, so the two situations are not good in January this year, you can understand.



Excerpted from
: Lee Mi-young, editor of the digital news team

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