Exports and growth are gloomy...Arrest confrontation raises national credibility concerns

■ Host: Youngsoo Kim anchor
■ Starring: commentator Lee Jong-soo

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This year, the Korean economy is expected to be a thorn in the side of exports, which have been a support in the crisis. The political turmoil that is fueling the economic crisis, and the confrontation with the president's arrest this time, is raising concerns about national credentials. Public opinion is also rising, with the governor of the Bank of Korea making a determined statement to consider the economic crisis. Let's point it out with commentator Lee Jong-soo. Please come in. What Korea has been able to withstand for a while was the export sector among the economies. Exports are also in such a formidable situation this year?

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. Exports amounted to $836.8 billion last year, although there were difficulties both inside and outside the country. That's why we've achieved the highest performance ever.

[Anchor]
683.8 billion.

[Lee Jong-soo]
less than $7000 However, it exceeded 140 billion dollars in semiconductors, the main industry. In the case of automobiles, it's exceeded $70 billion for the second year in a row. However, in the case of this year, the thorny path is predicted. The government honestly acknowledged it. Let's take a look at the graphic. Let's take a look.Ma's export growth rate was 8.2% last year. But it shrank to 1.5% this year.

And it was a good product memory semiconductor, sales growth rate, and 81%.It's now 13% down. The reason for this sluggish export is that competition in our major industries, including memory, is intensifying. Another reason isn't Trump 2nd going to launch at the end of the month? If that happens, the maximum trade tariffs will be about 20% now, and protectionism will be strengthened accordingly, don't you think? Then, according to the high exchange rate, exporters buy raw materials at high prices, and then their competitiveness weakens due to the price burden, all of which are the reasons for the sluggish exports.

[Anchor]
If there are concerns about sluggish exports, Korea's economic growth rate is composed of exports, domestic demand, and consumption, but if exports fall like this, the competitive growth rate will inevitably decrease, right?

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. In July last year, the government expected economic growth to be 2.2 percent this year, but it lowered it by 0.4 percentage point to 1.8 percent this year. It's been two years since this happened, and it's the first time in two years since 2023 that we've expected low growth of around 1%.

If you look at the graph now, it's significantly lower than the United States and Canada when you compare it with the G7 and the seven major countries. It's a little ahead of Japan. Of course, sluggish exports are the key reason. And right now, the slump in domestic demand is being prolonged. But I'm expecting low growth because I'm expecting this to be a slow recovery, but the more serious problem now is that the growth rate may actually go down more than this.

The reason for this is the martial law crisis and impeachment. This is not specifically reflected. So isn't there a global investment bank after martial law at the end of last year? CT Bank, JPMorgan and two others have cut growth and South Korea's economic growth to 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, this year.

[Anchor]
I'm more worried. However, martial law and impeachment are still ING. Isn't the confusion continuing? Aren't you concerned about the prolonged period? If this happens, we need some new momentum, so how is the government responding?

[Lee Jong-soo]
The government has to prevent the economy from falling now. In the first half of the year, we're going to do our best to defend the economy. First of all, our people's livelihood economic budget is set at about 85 trillion won this year. Of these, 40%, KRW 34 trillion will be executed early in the first quarter. It's like that. And we're also opening up the possibility of an extra budget in the second quarter.

And now that exports are important, trade finance is set at 360 trillion won, the largest ever, and it means that it will supply it intensively in the first half of the year. If you look at it more specifically, we're going to cut 5% to 3.5% in the case of temporary new cars, that is, temporary, individual consumption taxes in the first half of the year.

Acting Chief Choi Sang-mok, despite pressure from the ruling and opposition parties recently, did not you push ahead with the appointment of a constitutional judge to block the economic and people's livelihood crisis? Whenever there is a chance, the ruling and opposition parties should consult each other. Let's hear the relevant remarks firsthand.

[Anchor]
However, the governor of the Bank of Korea also made his own remarks. You said it to this effect that we need to prevent political turmoil?

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. Lee Chang-yong, the governor of the Bank of Korea, is a hot topic these days. During the New Year's speech, he made an ad-lib remark without the manuscript. Let's listen to the related remarks.

[Anchor]
Is that a statement of opinion?

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. When acting Choi pushed ahead with the appointment of a constitutional judge, there was opposition from the State Council members and the ruling and opposition parties, right?

[Anchor]
The ruling party protested.

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. The power of the state is dissatisfaction with the threat of impeachment. The opposition party is also unconstitutional. I only did 20 out of three. That's what I said. So these things are aimed at things like that, but independence is the lifeblood of the Bank of Korea. Therefore, in the case of the president, it is unusual to make political remarks fairly carefully and refrain from making political remarks.

However, along with acting Choi Sang-mok, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong is responsible for these things, including the foreign exchange market, the financial market, and the national newcomers. My shoulders are heavy. It's a super emergency. So wouldn't you feel a sense of crisis? It seems that he made the remarks with his own beliefs. And these days, Chey Tae-won, chairman of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and business leaders are appealing to the government that it should deal with the state administration now, that stabilization of state administration is important.

[Anchor]
Politics is now emerging as the biggest risk to our economy, and the president and the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit had an extreme confrontation over the execution of arrest warrants just last Friday. The confrontation continued for more than five hours. How did the foreign press report?

[Lee Jong-soo]
First of all, a very urgent breaking news. So CNN and BBC in the United States broadcast the confrontation live, and if the warrant is re-executed, it is sure to broadcast it live. What major foreign media reports are consistently common is that political turmoil is increasing in Korea.

As a representative example, let's take a look at a few foreign media, but the Wall Street Journal, as you know, isn't the representative economy of the United States? The impeached president blocked the arrest attempt, but political turmoil came at a sensitive time. Shall we look at the New York Times next time? Isn't it the representative media of liberal mainstream? He said that the uncertainty that followed the declaration of the emergency martial law is also casting darkness on the Korean economy. Let's take a look at Japan.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, a conservative newspaper with the largest circulation in Japan. If you continue to act as you each claim, there is a risk of developing into a serious conflict. At the same time, he pointed out that it is difficult to even gauge the adverse effects of the failure of Korean politics and justice, that is, damage, on internal affairs and diplomacy.

[Anchor]
Most of them are critical. It's meant to end the political turmoil quickly.

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. Isn't this a scene only seen in Latin American countries? Attempting to execute an arrest warrant against the president. And the pros and cons are confronting each other. Furthermore, the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit, the security service, and even the state agencies are confronting each other like this. Since this is spreading all over the world through major foreign media, it could have a significant negative impact on national credibility.

[Anchor]
How do international credit rating agencies actually evaluate it? Are you concerned? There are concerns that Korea's national credit rating may fall now.

[Lee Jong-soo]
There's no tangible action right now.Ma seems likely if this is prolonged, so last year, at the end of last year. Isn't there France? France's political crisis has continued for months.

[Anchor]
The national credit rating has been downgraded recently, right?

[Lee Jong-soo]
That's right. The reason Moody's, an international credit rating agency, put forward at the time was political division. The government downgraded its sovereign credit rating due to political division. That's why there are concerns about national newcomers. Wouldn't it be true that there are much more public opinions about the president's appearance as a president in order to take it out, protect his national prestige, and settle the political situation?

The news came out a little while ago.The president's side is the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit and the police. Since they said they would file a complaint against 150 people involved in the execution of the warrant, it is also worrisome in that regard because there are signs that the confrontation will be prolonged.

[Anchor]
The political turmoil continues amid a gloomy outlook for this year for both exports and growth. It is urgent to resolve politics as soon as possible so that it can help the economy and the people's livelihood. Thank you very much. It was with commentator Lee Jong-soo. Thank you.