[Start Economy] Prices of cabbage and radish skyrocket ahead of the Lunar New Year...a shopping cart emergency

■ Host: Anchor Lee Jung-seop, Anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Professor Chae Sang-mi, Department of Business Administration at Ewha Womans University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

[Anchor]
We deliver the latest economic news quickly and kindly. Start Economy, today with Chae Sang-mi, a professor of business administration at Ewha Womans University. There is news that agricultural prices have risen a lot these days, but I am worried that prices will rise further if demand increases due to the Lunar New Year's Day.

[CHAE SANGMI]
The price of agricultural products is increasing a lot in the new year. A variety of Lunar New Year's products that are consumed a lot during the holidays. In particular, the price of cabbage and radish has increased a lot. According to statistics from the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, the average retail price of cabbage was 5,027 won per head as of the 3rd, up 59% from a year ago. Radish is 3,206 won per piece, which is 77% more expensive than a year ago. In particular, the price of pears, which are often served at ancestral rites, has also increased a lot as the supply has decreased. It is analyzed that the average retail price of the ship is 42,000 won for 10 pieces, 25% more expensive than a year ago.

[Anchor]
Has anyone recently gone grocery shopping? I see it often, but cabbage is also very expensive. Fruit and vegetable prices have risen so much that a pack of strawberries exceeds 500g 10,000 won. There is a lot of analysis that the price increase is due to the decrease in crop production?

[CHAE SANGMI]
Last summer, the heat wave was severe, and the late heat continued for a considerable period of time in autumn. Temperature-sensitive crops have suffered sluggish growth, resulting in a decrease in production. In the case of radish, frequent rain in Jeju, a winter radish production area, was also affected. Looking at the kimchi-making season last year, cabbage and radish were shipped early to stabilize prices. It has been cited as some of the factors behind the current price increase. As a result, the government will announce price management measures for the peak Lunar New Year season as early as this week. During this year's Lunar New Year's peak season, it is known that it will increase the supply of high-quality products such as apples and Korean beef to the highest level ever and support discount events as the largest scale.

[Anchor]
We'll pay attention to the government's announcement of measures. Now, people look for transportation to their hometowns ahead of Lunar New Year's Day. Representatively, KTX reservations will begin today, but the penalty for refunding train tickets will increase significantly this Lunar New Year?

[CHAE SANGMI]
Korail announced that it will double the refund penalty during the Lunar New Year's special transportation period, which is the special transportation period from the 24th to the 2nd of next month. In the meantime, it has been pointed out that the penalty for refunding train tickets is low, and because of this, there are many cases of "don't ask" reservations or "cancel after preoccupying seats in large quantities." In order to solve this problem and reduce the inconvenience of actual users, Korail has decided to double the penalty during the holiday. For example, based on three hours before the train departure day, 5% of the amount used was usually paid as a penalty if canceled three hours before the departure time, but 10% was paid as a penalty if canceled from three hours before the departure time. During the holiday special period, it was announced that 10% and 20% would be doubled, respectively.

[Anchor]
I also use Korail KTX a lot, so if you could explain it by comparing it with the actual train ticket.

[CHAE SANGMI]
For example, the KTX regular seat ticket price between Seoul and Busan is 59,800 won. Normally, if you cancel within 3 hours before departure, you only need to pay about 6,000 won, which is 10%, as a penalty, but you have to pay 12,000 won, which is twice as much during the special Lunar New Year transportation period. Korail hopes this measure will minimize so-called no-show damage during the holiday season. Among the tickets released during the Chuseok holiday last year, 2.25 million tickets, or 45%, were refunded. Among them, 240,000 seats, or about 5% of which were not sold again, were operated as empty seats, so it is expected that this measure will minimize the inconvenience of citizens who want to use Korail.

[Anchor]
I hope there will be less preemptive work. This time, let's talk about household income. The story continues that the polarization of our society is getting worse, but it has been confirmed as an actual indicator, right?

[Chae Sang-mi]
When looking at income distribution indicators, we mainly use the quintile magnification and the tenth quintile magnification, which compares the bottom 10% and the top 10% of income. The average annual income of the top 10% last year was 210.51 million won, while the bottom 10% was 10.19 million won, according to the National Statistical Portal of Statistics Korea. If you calculate the income gap between the two, it is calculated as 2032,000 won. It is the first time that the annual income gap of the upper and lower 10% has exceeded 200 million won. It is the first time since 2017 that the average annual income of the top 10% of households has exceeded 200 million won.

[Anchor]
Did the recent bad economic conditions contribute to such polarization?

[CHAE SANGMI]
Recently, domestic demand has continued to be sluggish. The sluggish domestic demand will eventually lead to difficulties for small business owners, which will inevitably lead to an income gap. Looking at the assets of the top 10% of households in income, they increased 7% over the past year, but the bottom 10% increased only 2%. The fact that rental fees, interest, and property income of the upper-income class increased faster than monthly salaries also affected it. The asset gap between the two also exceeded 1.5 billion won for the first time. In addition, the widening wage gap between large companies and SMEs can be seen as one reason. Recently, consumer sentiment has been shrinking a lot due to the martial law crisis and impeachment. This can be a problem because - in addition, the wage gap between large companies and SMEs can act as a factor that can further expand polarization.

[Anchor]
I think it can be seen as an extension of the property income you mentioned earlier, that is, as the value of assets held by the upper-income class increases, the income increases. Looking at the apartment transaction, gifts accounted for a very large proportion in Seoul last year.

[CHAE SANGMI]
That's right. According to statistics from the Korea Real Estate Agency, if you look at the Seoul apartment transaction in October last year, gifts accounted for 14.4%. This was the highest rate in a year and 10 months since December 2022. However, 55% of apartment transactions in Seocho-gu were identified as gift transactions. It's more than half. It is interpreted that these apartment gift transactions were concentrated in the Gangnam area. Recently, the rise in housing prices has slowed down. However, earlier this year, the change in the method of calculating the gift tax price for high-priced houses will be changed. As you know, it will be changed to strengthen appraisal, and as a result, the tax burden is expected to increase, so it is interpreted that the demand for gifts has been temporarily concentrated.

[Anchor]
As the professor said, it will be expanded further from this year, so you think it was temporarily concentrated, right?

[CHAE SANGMI]
In the meantime, the gift tax has been calculated based on the market price. It's hard to figure out the market price like an ultra-high-priced house where transactions are rare. So, we were using the official price as an exception. So the problem is that the official price of ultra-high-priced houses is significantly lower than the market price. Therefore, there has been a constant criticism that gift taxes are imposed too little. Accordingly, the National Tax Service decided to impose gift tax on ultra-high-priced houses through appraisal starting this year. According to the target, the price at the time of gift tax filing is 500 million won lower than the market price estimated by the National Tax Service, or the difference is more than 10%. As it acts as a side of strengthening appraisal taxation this year, it is interpreted that the demand to lower the gift tax was temporarily concentrated at the end of last year.

[Anchor]
We've even looked at the analysis of the real estate flow. Let's look at the New York Stock Exchange. It's starting in earnest in the new year, but employment-related indicators are about to be released this week, right?

[CHAE SANGMI]
This week, the New York Stock Exchange is set to release employment indicators, including unemployment and the number of job openings. The point of view is whether the U.S. unemployment rate, which rebounded slightly in November last year, will continue to rise. On the 10th, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the unemployment rate in December last year. If the unemployment rate jumps unexpectedly. Then, I think Fed can advance the timing of the base rate cut. Looking at the market's expectations, we are expecting an unemployment rate of 4.2% as in November. On the 7th, the U.S. Department of Labor's job opening and transfer report will be released in November last year.The number of job openings and transfers in the U.S. reached a three-and-a-half-year low in September last year and then improved in October. So, this is a very important concern as to whether this trend will continue until November. In addition, Wall Street is also paying attention to the minutes of Fed's December FOMC meeting, which will be released on the 8th. At that time, FOMC cut interest rates in the U.S. three times in a row after a heated debate. The forecast for the number of rate cuts this year has been reduced from four to two. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, "The decision to cut interest rates was a close call," Fed members had a fierce discussion, so this is expected to be confirmed.

[Anchor]
Let's stop here. So far, I have been with Chae Sang-mi, a professor of business administration at Ewha Womans University. Thank you, professor.