[Start Economy] Jensen Hwang, "I'm sure Samsung Electronics succeeded in HBM"...CES 2025, which just rose

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Seok Byung-hoon, professor of economics at Ewha Womans University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

[Anchor]
We deliver the latest economic news quickly and kindly. Start Economy, today we will be joined by Seok Byung-hoon, professor of economics at Ewha Womans University. Welcome, professor. It's the attention of the world. Attention is being paid to the opening of CES and its contents. As you saw in the warrant yesterday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave a keynote speech after 8 years, and a lot of people gathered?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. The main event started at 6:30 p.m., but thousands of people waited three hours before the event began. Then, the venue was able to accommodate 10,000 to 12,000 people, and the crowd gathered to the 3rd floor to the extent that it was like a rock star's concert hall filling the venue, so it was a very successful box office.

[Anchor]
I was very interested in what CEO Nvidia Jensen Hwang would say and what technologies he would show, but this time, foreshadowing the robot era, he came out with a platform that can clearly reduce the cost and time required to develop robots and autonomous driving technologies. I heard your name is Cosmos.

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. It can be seen as a solution that can drastically reduce the time and cost of robots and autonomous driving technology. So you can think of it as a new physical AI development platform. Physical AI is defined as an AI system that interacts with the physical world, such as a robot or an autonomous vehicle. That's why this cosmos is a platform that enables robots to learn vast amounts of data in the real world. So how you learn that data is to create a 3D and 3D environment that is the same as the reality where physical laws are applied. So, in the process of developing robots and autonomous driving functions, we will create a virtual world that is the same as reality and support robots to learn at a high speed. This is a new technology that can dramatically shorten the speed of developing it by allowing robots to learn quickly and use real robots and autonomous driving functions. This is a really groundbreaking announcement that we will pursue a strategy to preempt humanoid robots that can perform human-like functions in the future.

[Anchor]
From simple GPU hardware to a more advanced platform presentation, we saw a new blackwell-based GPU product.Ma said that it has micron memory on it.

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. In this speech, we also unveiled the next generation of graphics processing devices for desktop and laptop personal computers, which are equipped with Nvidia's Blackwell and combined with AI memory to make an accelerator, and the semiconductor of Micron, an American semiconductor company, goes into this. So originally, there was a lot of expectation that SK Hynix's was going in. But micron semiconductors are in. And in the case of GPU devices now, the performance is twice as good as the previous one. Consumers cheered a lot because the price fell by a third. Conversely, domestic investors were bad news because semiconductor-related stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell. However, because Micron Semiconductor went in, shares of Micron's partner soared more than 20% right after the announcement at the time, and this is a mixed blessing.

[Anchor]
In the meantime, CEO Jensen Huang also mentioned Samsung Electronics at a global press conference. Samsung said it should design a new HBM, but now SK Hynix is already delivering it to Nvidia. Why is Samsung so late?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
I got some bad news this time. For the first time, Jensen Hwang directly pointed out Samsung Electronics' semiconductor design problems. Samsung has not passed the HBM performance test for a long time. Until now, it has been pointed out that HBM has a fever problem. It is known that efforts have been made to catch this fever problem, but it has not improved. However, this seems to be related to the design problem in the end. Because CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that Samsung should design HBM anew this time. So it seems that the design problem needs to be improved now. But in fact, I'm sure that when Americans talk, they always point out problems and then they also mention positive aspects, so they actually believe that they can improve this as if tomorrow is Wednesday. This is how I talked about it as a lip service. So I mentioned that I'm confident that I can solve this design problem myself someday because I believe in Samsung's technology, but I think it's not easy to solve it in a short period of time, and it's such bad news. That's why Samsung Electronics hopes to be able to solve this early.

[Anchor]
Tomorrow's sun will definitely rise, but there is a saying that the night before sunrise is the darkest. I think I'll have to wait a little longer. CES has opened in earnest, so attention is being paid to it, but when I looked at the topic, it was called dive-in in English, immersion in Korean. What does it mean?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
It's the world's largest consumer electronics IT fair. It opens on the 7th local time in Las Vegas, USA, and will be held until the 10th. So, it will be the largest-ever participation of 4,500 companies, and as the anchor said, the theme is dive-in, immersion. However, this meaning can be seen as a key agenda to connect with technology, solve problems, discover new possibilities, and fall in love. So the key is artificial intelligence and AI again this year. Last year, the representative keyword was AI, and since AI technology has expanded and evolved in a year, this time, immersion has been set as a key agenda to show that AI has grown to be customized for individuals and applied to more fields.

[Anchor]
I'm also looking forward to the activities of Korean companies at CES. Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics will compete in an all-out battle over innovation in AI home appliances?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are called smart homes. So, we are not just selling home appliances, but we are showing solutions that help us to innovatively and conveniently manage and efficiently control home appliances systems using AI functions. Therefore, in the case of Samsung Electronics, Home AI and LG Electronics are introducing AI technology home appliances that realize smart homes by naming them AI Home. So, in the case of Samsung Electronics, they said they would release the AI butler robot Boli in the first half of this year. Next, LG Electronics is also showing that it will also launch a assistant robot to implement AI home within this year. So both electronics companies also now commonly suggest that it is necessary to be a butler robot to implement AI technology. In the case of Samsung Electronics, they talk about home AI the same way, but they emphasize that it provides customized solutions to individuals by ultra-personalization. In the case of LG Electronics, we focus on focusing on the overall experience of connecting products and services in various spaces, such as mobility, automobiles and such mobility, and commercial and virtual spaces.

[Anchor]
Samsung Electronics and semiconductors have not shown much results and are now offering technological innovation in home appliances, but they will release their preliminary results for the fourth quarter of last year today. How will it turn out?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
Everyone is looking at it conservatively. This is because several securities companies are continuously lowering their earnings outlook for Samsung Electronics. According to FnGuard, there are a total of 11 securities firms that announced Samsung Electronics' operating profit estimates in January, with an estimated operating profit of about 7.4714 trillion won in the fourth quarter. However, the fourth-quarter operating profit consensus compiled over the past four months is KRW 8.2105 trillion. So, the forecast for January was lowered by about 740 billion won. However, the reason why securities companies keep lowering their forecasts is that the price of memory semiconductors, Samsung Electronics' main product, continues to fall. Then, in the case of the foundry business that Samsung Electronics is promoting again, the utilization rate has also fallen, continuing to lose money. And the supply of HBM3 continues to be delayed as well. Moreover, even CEO Jensen Hwang pointed out that the design itself should be changed, so this is also bad news. We believe that Samsung Electronics' performance will continue to deteriorate, so we need to step up technology development and make efforts to improve its performance in the future.

[Anchor]
We talked about Samsung Electronics' performance and CES, and there is a reporter at the CES site. We are planning to introduce new technologies in the future, so it would be nice if you could watch it together. Let's move on to the next topic. It's a story of the Jeju Air passenger plane disaster, but now that the delivery of all the victims is over, what's left is actually identifying the cause of the accident. In the midst of this, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has been embroiled in a controversy over self-investigation. Looking at it, the chairman of the accident investigation resigned.

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is investigating the cause of the accident. This is an agency under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. So, not only are personnel and budgets under the direction and supervision of the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, but the chairman is a former Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. And the current aviation policy chief of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is supposed to be in charge of the standing committee member. And the investigation team that investigates the accident also includes incumbent officials from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. In the case of the Jeju Air disaster and the Muan Airport accident, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's negligence is being raised, so the investigation by a committee under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is controversial. So, as controversy continues to be raised, the head of the accident investigation committee from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has decided to step down and then exclude the current head of the aviation policy office of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from the standing committee. In addition, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport also announced that he would take responsibility at an appropriate time.

[Anchor]
But now, the problem of concrete hills is often pointed out as the cause of the disaster. It's the hill under the local riser, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said at the time that it was built in accordance with the regulations. How do you see this part?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
In the end, it is expected that the cause will be additionally identified through investigations and such in the future. First of all, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport repeated its existing position. Therefore, you must first understand the concept of a longitudinal safety zone, which is an area established after the end of the landing table to reduce aircraft damage when the aircraft fails to stop in time after landing and exits the end of the runway. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that in the case of Muan Airport, the longitudinal safety zone is 199m to the local riser, but this is 90m in compulsory terms. Therefore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport believes that it was built in accordance with local riser regulations because it is 199m longer than 90m. In addition, the explanation is that there is no problem with installing the localizer on top of the concrete because there is no separate regulation on the facility material. In addition, he acknowledged that the problem was that it was insufficient when it was pointed out that safety was not secured. In addition, the operating standards have been applied since 2010 to the criticism that construction and operating standards are in conflict, but Muan Airport was opened in 2007. So, he explained that the operating standards do not apply to the local risers installed at that time. So, although it is a lot of unfortunate situations, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport repeated its existing position. Therefore, we believe that the responsibility of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport will be revealed in the future investigation process. It's a sad situation in many ways.

[Anchor]
There seems to be a controversy not only about the design of Muan Airport but also about Jeju Air right now. It was pointed out that the workload of Jeju Air's flight attendants and mechanics was a little excessive.

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's aviation information portal system, Jeju Air had more than 47,000 international flights as of last year, the highest among low-cost domestic airlines. However, as of last year, there were 670 pilots working at Jeju Air, and then the average number of international flights per person reached 70.2. However, other low-cost airlines, such as Jin Air, have 57.2 flights and T'way Air 46.2, which are more than 20% to 30% more than simple comparisons of other low-cost airlines, which can be seen as increased fatigue for pilots. In addition to this, it seems that there was a considerable lack of maintenance personnel. Therefore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport recommended that each aircraft should have 12 maintenance personnel, but Jeju Air has only recently passed the recommended standard to 12.7 people after hiring 11.2 mechanics each since the end of last year.

[Anchor]
It seems that Jeju Air's unreasonable work needs to be investigated. Finally, let's take a look at the New York Stock Exchange. All three major indexes fell, but Nvidia fell even though CEO Jensen Hwang gave a speech and CES was in full swing. Is this a big influence?

[Seok Byung Hoon]
That's right. Three influences are being pointed out now. The three major indexes, especially the Nasdaq Composite, fell sharply to 1.89%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also fell. However, as you pointed out, despite the announcement of new technologies by Jensen Hwang, CEO of AI semiconductor company Nvidia, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell mainly as technology stocks were dumped due to disappointment in new technologies. Then, the US Supply Management Association announced the service purchase management index in December, which was better than the previous month and higher than the market forecast. That's why the service industry is expanding. Then, in the job transfer report in December last year, the number of job openings has also increased since October, and the labor market is solid, and the government bond rate has risen due to the prediction that prices will rise as the service industry expands. Due to the prediction that the Fed's policy rate cut will be delayed further, the three major indexes of the New York Stock Exchange have now fallen. So Nvidia shares plunged 6% and now soared nearly 3% before CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech. So, in fact, there is a rumor that the stock market's adage is to buy and sell it to the news, but that's kind of supported it.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. Today, I was with Seok Byung-hoon, a professor of economics at Ewha Womans University. Thank you.