Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the U.S. Institute of Maryland, said that an early conclusion of defense negotiations will bring greater stability to the South Korea-U.S. alliance, but predicted that if Trump is elected, he is likely to break that stability.
He also said he sees a 60% chance of trying to renegotiate, although it's hard to predict how Trump will do it.
Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, also said there was no Trump defense mechanism to protect the alliance from political turmoil and that if Trump wins the presidential election, he would likely renegotiate the terms of the agreement.
Frank Um, a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute for Peace, also pointed out that early completion of defense budget negotiations does not immunize Trump against the situation if he returns to power.Researcher
um predicted that Trump could withdraw the South Korea-U.S. defense cost negotiations like the Paris climate agreement, and demand higher costs for military exercises and the deployment of U.S. military assets on the Korean Peninsula.
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