North Korea blew up the inter-Korean road on the Gyeongui Line and the East Sea Line...our military counter-fire

■ Host: Lee Se-na Anchor, Jeong Chae-woon Anchor
■ Starring: Hong Min, Senior Researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 2PM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This time, we will connect Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification, to learn more about North Korea's bombing situation and future prospects. How are you, Commissioner?

[Hongmin]
Hello,

[Anchor]
North Korea blew up parts of the military demarcation line north of the Gyeongui Line and the East Sea Line at around 12 p.m. today. You've already detected the preparations for the blast, right?

[Hongmin]
That's right. Since the beginning of the year, the two Koreas have taken a series of measures to block, block, and disconnect the two Koreas based on the two national theories, and in particular, the two Koreas have already carried out the work of removing various facilities, starting with the existing roads, railroads, roads in the East and West Seas, and railway parts.

[Anchor]
The East Sea and Gyeongui Line are at the Military Demarcation Line, and there have been concerns about local warfare depending on the bombing point, so where is the bombing point specifically?

[Hongmin]
The bombing points are probably land points where railroads and roads were connected, and it is necessary to check whether this is in the area of violation of the so-called armistice agreement of the MDL, but it is likely that it is in the MDL. If so, this could also be an example of a violation of the Armistice Agreement, so I think this is a part that needs to be investigated or protested at the UN level in the future.

[Anchor]
Depending on the exact location, the future impact will also change, but North Korea has already laid landmines around roads and removed railways and nearby accessories since late last year to cut off inter-Korean land routes. What do you see as the intent of this kind of fortification strategy?

[Hongmin]
Since the two Koreas were declared to be two warring countries, it was the will of the leadership, or it has been conducted as a kind of various performances to show that they have a willingness to cut off. But this time, the bombing was a kind of behavior that showed in a dramatic way or a shocking way. Perhaps the reason for declaring the two hostile countries is that North Korea strategically created a negotiating structure between the U.S. and North Korea, and because it existed tactical nuclear weapons, national relations could be a significant obstacle to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which is within a large strategic framework, and on the other hand, it seems that there is a complaint about the current administration's very hard-line stance against North Korea. Overall, it can be seen as a combination of strategic understanding and current policy complaints.

[Anchor]
I used the expression "fortification strategy" in North Korea, and I also wonder what fortress you are going to build specifically.

[Hongmin]
Perhaps the basic first step is to remove various facilities that were basically connected to the passage and build a defense or permanent barrier at the same time. And then you have the military behind the barrier and then you have the possibility to go to a second line of structures where you have a fortification barrier where you can keep the military out of the way if you're in a state of engagement or if the South pushes in under certain conditions.

[Anchor]
And the Korean Central News Agency reported that Chairman Kim Jong-un convened a consultative meeting on defense and safety yesterday to express a strong political and military stance toward the South. What do you think these messages mean?

[Hongmin]
It seems that the water level has been adjusted. A similar pattern was seen in June 2020, when the party's Central Military Commission, so-called North Korea's top military decision-making body, was the case. If this party-government military committee held a preliminary meeting and operated any mechanism using an official organization by signaling military action, this time it was convened under the name of a council on defense and safety, which is not actually a permanent or official organization. It appears that
convened a meeting in the form of some sort of consultation with some of the military leaders involved in the matter.

So it's a very temporary method. So, most of the people who attended that day also attended the event, focusing on the people related to this issue. In this convocation format, I think it should be a meeting to control the level by grasping the current situation and presenting follow-up tasks rather than giving a message too much through the Supreme Military Decision Organization such as the Party Central Military Commission.

[Anchor]
However, last night, Vice Minister Kim Yo-jung made a statement and pointed out that the main culprit was the South Korean military, holding the U.S. accountable. What do you think is the reason for referring to the United States like this?

[Hongmin]
Perhaps it's the concept of calling the U.S. military to avoid the escalation ladder. Here, the U.S. military is not usually recognized by North Korea as a UNC, so it is not called a UNC, but just called it a U.S. military. So here, the U.S. military refers to the UNC. In any case, the UNC is directly involved in the matter. It's a way of asking the U.S. military to step in and investigate and find out the truth quickly because it's a kind of party that manages the Armistice Agreement and it's a serious matter of violating the Armistice Agreement itself.

In other words, it seems that Korea judged that it was making overly provocative remarks, and in fact, if we talk to Korea, we have no choice but to go into a situation of escalation. So to avoid this escalation, it seems that they chose this method of calling the U.S. military and holding the U.S. responsible for this fact anyway.

[Anchor]
Earlier, the Joint Chiefs of Staff predicted that there could be a possibility of a show-off explosion and additional provocations. What do you think about the possibility that North Korea will make additional provocations in the future?

[Hongmin]
You can't rule it out completely. Of course, according to today's report on national defense and safety, they revealed the important task of operating war deterrence and exercising the right to self-defense in order to protect their safety and sovereignty. The expression war deterrence here refers to nuclear force. I'm talking about nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un has usually talked about the deterrent to war as the mission of nuclear weapons. And even though this is actually an implication, there's an aspect that indirectly shows that we can mobilize even this deterrent to war anyway.

As such, he also slightly expressed his intention to even risk nuclear weapons if there is a war in the future. Nevertheless, North Korea will not continue to engage in preemptive attacks. Or, I will not do anything preemptive with force or force in my own way. Since we have always taken an attitude that we will do it proportionally depending on how the opponent does it, it seems likely that we will avoid intentionally making various situations that can be expanded first. The part that blew up today also seems to be a symbolic performance to show one's will, compared to 2020. In itself, it seems a little too early to conclude that certain provocations and escalation were in mind.

[Anchor]
South Korea has also announced that it will strongly punish North Korea for self-defense in the event of a provocation. Also, a few minutes ago, we also fired back to the south of the military demarcation line. Will today's bombing increase and increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula?

[Hongmin]
There is a good chance of that, but for now, the UNC has sent a message that it will investigate this, and on the other hand, Kurt Campbell, a senior U.S. State Department official, is scheduled to visit Korea tomorrow. Even if it comes for a different purpose, there is a high possibility that the two countries will exchange opinions on this issue very deeply.

So the United States is very concerned about tensions on the Korean Peninsula because it is very difficult to manage the battlefields of Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, it seems that there is a possibility that the UNC may investigate this issue in its own way and go to a more calming phase. In addition, the U.S. will probably also take a direction toward managing the situation and managing tensions rather than escalating. If that happens, it seems that there is a possibility that the part where the two sides have a little extreme war of words may go somewhat calming.

[Anchor]
And earlier, the South Korean military has continued to maintain strategic ambiguity over North Korea's alleged infiltration of drones. How do you rate our military's message and response? Do you think it's appropriate?

[Hongmin]
It seems that you have to be very careful in managing your messages. What that means is that it is important to refrain from messages that create a strategic misunderstanding and create an atmosphere of expansion as much as possible. First of all, it is important to send a message that the military has a deterrent system as well as possible, but to set its direction toward calming the situation as much as possible without sending messages of elements that can be expanded. In particular, deterrence, so-called deterrence without any escalation, is the best attitude.

지금 너무 지나치게 확인해 줄 수 없다라는 모호성을 견지하다 보니까 했는지 안 했는지에 대한 사실 자체가 규명이 안 되는 것에 대해서 북한은 심증적인 주범으로 이걸 확증하는 방식으로 가고 있거든요. while continuing to amplify doubts Therefore, in a certain part, there must be a part that requires the transparency of a certain message that clearly indicates that it is not the subject of the company. And it seems that it is necessary to manage the message carefully to lower the tension as much as possible in a containment posture rather than stimulation.

[Anchor]
I see. So far, we have connected Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification, to examine North Korea's intention to blow up the inter-Korean road and its wavelength. Thank you, Commissioner, for your words today.