North Korea sends special forces to Russia...Ukra "Revealing Video of Presumptive North Korean Forces"

■ Host: Choi Doo-hee Anchor, Cho Ye-jin Anchor
■ Starring: Yang Wook, researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Rumors of North Korean troops sending troops to Russia have been confirmed. Our intelligence authorities said that North Korea has begun to move its troops.

[Anchor]
The global security landscape is shaking beyond the Korean Peninsula amid intensifying military closeness between North Korea and Russia. Let me point out the related content with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Please come in.

[Yang Wook]
How are you?

[Anchor]
The National Intelligence Service has officially confirmed the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia. It's quite large. How large is it? Please explain.

[Yang Wook]
We're talking about 12,000 people. Since North Korea has about 3,000 troops in one brigade, it is estimated that four brigades were deployed. So far, about 1,500 people have been transferred in the first round. It's probably about half the brigade's troops. According to Cheongjin, Hamheung, Musudan, and the region began to move between October 8 and 13, and it is known that the movement was carried out by four landing ships and three frigates belonging to the Russian Pacific Fleet.

And the moved personnel are training inside Russia. I'm training in four different regions. It is found in four locations in Vladivostok, Usurisk, Khabarovsk, and especially in Vladivostok, where it is not an NIS announcement, it is said that pilots are being trained there. Overall, I think it's probably the first time in history that North Korea has sent such a large-scale troops.

Especially, is this your first time participating in the war? This isn't right. Because I participated in the war several times, and I'll tell you again when I have a chance later. It would be safe to say that you were already participating in the war in Ukraine.
Because it is assumed that the existing weapons were not just provided with ammunition, but also provided missiles and various things, and actual operational personnel went and engaged.

So North Korea was already participating in the war. However, it was not easy to expect a large number of troops to be dispatched, but North Korea values this part very much and the life and death of the country is at stake here.Because they thought it was a matter of life and death for their government, I think they decided to send them.

[Anchor]
One video was released, and it is believed to be a North Korean soldier. The Ukrainian military made it public. It is said to be a video filmed in Primorsky Krai, Russia. The authenticity of the video has not yet been revealed, but what do you think about the authenticity?

[Yang Wook]
I need to analyze it in more detail.If those people are North Korea, in fact, if you look at the physique and things like that, I think North Korea is right. Because the locals on the Russian side are Yakutia, and this is Turk. Then there's the Mongols.

So even though it's Asian, there are some differences in looks. I don't know if North Koreans should disguise themselves as Mongolian. Overall, when you look at it, it can be seen that it is going through such a procedure to disguise itself as a local Russian military.

[Anchor]
If it was the actual image of North Korea dispatched, how would it have been obtained if that video was true?

[Yang Wook]
I think I can say that there must be collaborators inside the Ukrainian government, or those in the West. It's not easy to hide something because of those parts in this day and age. Most of them can bring very meaningful information with just a cell phone.

In particular, if you're looking at it, the first department head of the Jungsik Kim, a picture passed briefly earlier. It is said that the picture was taken in August. That's why it's known that this is the picture when I visited the site last August and guided the KN-23 missile launches, the picture I passed earlier. The photos that keep coming out are known to have been provided by the National Intelligence Service.

The armored vehicle you see was confirmed in July this year. The evidence that North Korea was already engaged in tremendous activities in the field is because our political circles and the entire people are not very interested in it, and such information has already been coming out continuously for a long time. It can be hard to believe that it's going to lead to dispatch.Ma has been Kim Jong-un's behavior so far, followed by North Korea's somewhat more frequent provocative behavior in July, August and September. In view of these things, this is the point where I think North Korea might have been putting all its capabilities into sending troops to Ukraine and supporting Russia.

[Anchor]
As rumors of the dispatch of North Korean troops have continued, there have been various observations about the size of the troops and what units will be sent. But the name was revealed. a group of storms Please explain what kind of unit it is.

[Yang Wook]
I'm not sure it's a storm troop, but it's likely. In its official name, it's the North Korean Special Operations Force. As a separate military service, the special forces became independent. This is how it is known in the world. Through our media reports and such, there are 200,000 North Korean special forces. But it's hard to say that all 200,000 people are actually special forces.

Among them, about 60,000 troops are equivalent to special operations forces. It's on the screen, but I'm talking about the fact that in the past, the Special Eighth Army collected only special forces and organized the corps. This is a collection of Army, Navy and Air Force special forces, and in the case of the Army, there are three types of special forces called lightning, lightning, and thunderstorms.

By the way, lightning is about the Light Infantry Brigade. The Light Infantry Brigade is not wearing helmets or anything, but carrying the commander, and then running in and attacking. There are four brigades in the army. Next, lightning. This is called a sniper, but it's not about shooting with the kind of sniper we know.

In North Korea, snipers are similar to our special forces unit, and there are three snipers brigade in the army. Next, the thunderstorm is the air force and the air force. There are three brigades. So, the army's special forces are formed of 10 brigades. Two air raid brigades in the air force, then two sea raid brigades in the navy, and other special forces created for landing. So I think it's a unit that's aiming for the five islands in the West Sea. Then mountain units, like this, exist, and at least 16 units are being identified.

[Anchor]
What role do you think the North Korean military will play if it actually participates in the war in Ukraine?

[Yang Wook]
I think there will be a difference depending on which wire and how it is put in. Is it really going to be sent in all of the special forces? If so, it's like this. If you have to take on a front line or an area, you'll need special forces, but general mechanized infantry and gunpowder support must go in together, so let's organize a division. For example, a general soldier would be an organization equivalent to one division, and one division could be a special brigade, followed by two mechanized infantry, a mixed armoured brigade, and then an artillery brigade.

For example, one of the areas where Russia is struggling very much in the war in Ukraine, and one of the areas where Russia is struggling due to a lack of troops, is the Kursk region, which came into mainland Russia. It is also possible to think about taking part of a front line to defend Russia in that region and operating it altogether.

Perhaps it's a relatively high possibility that it's going to be difficult to engage in a battlefield that's thought to be within Ukrainian territory. Rather, I wonder if such an approach is possible because fighting within Russian territory is more suitable for actual Russian needs and can bring about such a relationship that North Korea does more for Russia.

[Anchor]
Some analysts say that North Korea will become a bulletproof and scapegoat. What do you think about this?

[Yang Wook]
Basically, the battlefield is bound to have a lot of victims. If you look at the current war, what happened was that in the early days of the war in Ukraine, armoured vehicles and tanks were rushing in, and they were active as a mobile unit called the Battalion Tactical Corps.Ma is now fighting at a very long cordon, as if we were watching the Battle of Trenches in World War I.

In this way, Russia has created a very unique way of fighting. It comes in four units: Ilho-type unit, Ilho-type unit, special unit, and charge unit. As you know, Ilho-yong is when a person goes and dies. We have to stop the enemy from coming in from the defensive position. These people die, but the attacking side here finds out where they are defending.

Then the special troops go in there and overpower it with firepower, and then the real exhaust, the charge squad, occupies it. And the electric heating table goes in and completely takes over here. We're fighting very fiercely like this. Of course, if I were Russia, wouldn't I just have to put North Korea in a disposable discharge and fight? But I don't think North Korea will try to do it that way. The same goes for us.

Didn't we take over one area and operate in order not to sacrifice our soldiers carelessly in the case of overseas dispatch or the Vietnam War? Likewise, North Korea must move independently and properly to expand its criminal record while minimizing its own damage in that way. To do that, I can tell you that it is relatively likely that you have done this by asking us to take charge of an area.

One of the possibilities is that among the disposable, special, and charged personnel I mentioned earlier, the number of charge squad members is very short. Because they are very precious beings. They are very well trained and special, but even in the Russian military, airlift troops, naval guards, and only here, it is difficult to fight. I can send North Korea for that purpose, but I don't think it will be easy to decide because of local language problems or something like that. So, in my opinion, I think it is relatively likely to be independent and properly entrusted to one area.

[Anchor]
Earlier, the National Intelligence Service announced that it had received Russian weapons and military uniforms and even issued fake ID cards. Should I say that this is a measure conscious of opposition or criticism from the international community? How do you rate your intentions?

[Yang Wook] Of course. Because look at what we're saying officially. Both Russia and North Korea deny everything that's involved. Russia, we have never received artillery shells or weapons from North Korea. Of course, they're not going to tell you that they sent troops. I'm not going to check that part.

Overall, in that context, wouldn't the North Korean military's activities be limited to Russia's territory? In order to prevent more confidential leaks and things like that, it is possible to assume that some would try to restrict it to areas that are actually Russian territory, such as Kursk and this area.

[Anchor]
Russia is still silent on our intelligence authorities' announcement and has not announced its position. On the other hand, there is also an analysis that the North Korean military had no experience in the field after the Korean War, but this experience will give them experience in the field. What do you think?

[Yang Wook]
He may be right because he had never gained hands-on experience as a large-scale force, but if you think about it differently, I can tell you that after the Korean War, North Korea was steadily pursuing wars and gaining hands-on experience. The most representative example is the war in 1973, called the Fourth Middle East War. The Yongkipro War itself was a preemptive strike by Egypt and Syria after years of sharpening their blades to take revenge on Israel.

However, at this time, the North Korean instructors went for education and training in Egypt and Syria. There were pilot instructors and other special equipment instructors. The level did not rise until just before the war, so the pilots participated in the war. There are cases like this where they participated in the war and engaged with the actual Israeli Air Force, and so there are people who died.

In addition to that, whenever there is an opportunity on various fronts, North Korea sends its own instructors and even battles. As the most recent example, the Syrian civil war began in 2011 during the Syrian civil war, right?

During the initial chemical attack, there were rumors that North Korean military officers went and helped fire chemical weapons. Then, what happened at this time in 2015 and 2016 was the testimony of the Syrian rebels at the time that North Korean units were actually deployed and operated there.

In addition to that, military instructors were dispatched to Libya, Uganda, and Congo, and I can tell you that those instructors are instructors, who lead actual troops to war.

The truth is that in a way, those things became an opportunity for the elite within the North Korean military to continue to experience war. Most representatively, in the case of Kim Kyuk-sik, who was the head of the 4th Army at the time of the Cheonan's sinking, he was a person who had been deployed to Syria for a long time while preparing for the Yom Kippur War. In the end, I can tell you that there is a very high possibility that the so-called next elite of the North Korean military will try to create the future of the North Korean military through experience on such a battlefield.

[Anchor]
Then, what do you want to point out here is the situation against Ukraine? Earlier, you said that Russia is being pushed back in some areas. Overall, do you think the situation in the Ukraine war is so critical that Russia needs a large number of troops? How do you judge it?

[Yang Wook]
It's hard to say that either side is leading significantly. Earlier, I said that the Russian side struggled because it failed to respond to an unexpected attack on Russian territory, but Ukraine has expanded its front lines and secured its territory for two to three weeks in the beginning, but it is now being pushed back.

And overall, the Ukrainian military is also desperately short of troops. That's why Zelensky reacted very strongly to the fact that additional North Korean troops were being deployed and appealed to the international community for help. In fact, you might think that about 10,000 troops is not a big deal, but what's not is that it's likely to put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainian military, which lacks a lot of troops if it's deployed in one area and operates.

[Anchor]
Now, additional EU sanctions on North Korea are being mentioned in connection with the dispatch of North Korea to Russia, so how do you think about the effectiveness?

[Yang Wook]
There are many people who say that sanctions against North Korea themselves are not effective, but that is not the case. Originally, economic sanctions and such things take five to six years to be effective. So, the international community began to put pressure on North Korea in the early 2010, 11, 12, 13, and it started to increase pressure, and if you look at it, it started to work to some extent from 2017 or 18.

Same thing. The EU is doing something now, but it will not affect it directly, but it could go to North Korea even more in the next two to three years. So is this enough to stop North Korea's actions now? The problem is that it's not like that at all. So in the end, I think we should find more ways.

[Anchor]
There are concerns that North Korea could use the war in Ukraine as its weapons test site. Do you judge that this dispatch will be an opportunity for the weapons system to develop or develop further? How do you see it?

[Yang Wook]
It's so obvious. What I'm saying is that it came out in the release of the National Intelligence Service.Ma will find a new North Korean anti-tank armored vehicle in the Kharkiv area in July. This first appeared at the military parade in 2018.

However, the fact that this vehicle is being operated by the Russian side there means that Russia is definitely a country that makes a lot of armored vehicles and has a hard time making weapons systems, but the production situation is not good enough for such a country to bring and use North Korean weapons, and North Korea will make the most of them. The same goes for missiles.

As you can see, there are various North Korean missiles.The KN-23 is the most important missile in attacking the Republic of Korea in the future. It's a short-range missile, and North Korea calls it Hwaseong-11ga. We need to get the data by launching this Hwaseong-11ga from the site. Our experts estimate that about 50 rounds of the first delivery, which is estimated to have been made at the end of last year, went in. The accuracy rate was extremely low.

Of course, I ran out of them in two months.Ma. And I think the second delivery went into the summer. That's why we started the launch in July. And if you look at the picture, it came out briefly.Ma is the first deputy director of the Jungsik Kim, in charge of missiles. This person goes in August and a picture of him with the Russian army comes out. So this itself is continuously improving the performance of the missile based on the actual local launch performance. And then you can see that this can eventually be used to threaten the Republic of Korea.

[Anchor]
I'm worried about a lot of things, but is it possible that Russia will transfer nuclear technology or weapons technology in return for North Korea's current military and weapons aid?

[Yang Wook]
The same is true of what we've been discussing so far, but most of the context was that no matter how hard Russia is, it will not directly hand over nuclear and missile-related technologies to North Korea. If you are in a situation where you are in full-fledged participation in the war and even sending troops, the situation will change. If that happens, there will certainly be a large number of victims on the North Korean side.

In the end, the possibility of Russia providing fairly relevant technologies cannot be ruled out at all, even in return for the sacrifice. Of course, externally, I would deny that it never happened. Because the NPT itself, which is the most basic of the international order, strictly prohibits nuclear-related technologies, weapons transfers, and such things. They have to make an appearance that says they didn't break it, so I'll continue to deny it.If North Korea helps Russia by changing its blood and flesh to that extent, Russia will probably not be able to do just NO like this. I will evaluate again that the possibility of a lot of military aid going to Russia is now extremely high.

[Anchor]
Meanwhile, North Korea claimed that it found the remains of drones of the same type as drones operated by the South Korean military in Pyongyang today. How should I look at the facts?

[Yang Wook]
I saw the picture, too.Ma will tell you that the outward appearance is similar to the drones we have. North Korea claims that it is a drone that sprayed propaganda leaflets in Pyongyang. In fact, I haven't given a single basis for that. There's a buggy attached to it. You're talking about it, but actually, that machine's loading capacity is small.

It's a very small drone that barely gets on top of the vehicle. It's a small reconnaissance drone, and it doesn't have much payload inside. That's not for dropping. In my view, some of those drones may have fallen while reconnoitering the border area or North Korea's strategic assets. That's why I think they're trying to connect it with Pyongyang's propagation of propaganda leaflets by bringing that kind of thing.

However, if there is more detailed and direct evidence, North Korea will present it. However, after Kim Yo-jong shouted that there was evidence a few days ago, I think North Korea is also making a bit of a poor attack, considering that he just released a picture of the drone and did not properly analyze it.

[Anchor]
She's talking about Kim Yo Jong. The U.S. should take responsibility for Kim Yo-jung's mention of the drone crisis earlier. I mentioned it like this. I will exclude Korea and talk to the United States about this. Should I figure it out with this intention?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. In fact, North Korea will think that a good situation is unfolding for them. Because Trump is more likely to talk than anyone else. If Trump is elected, I think he should escalate the crisis and create an opportunity for dialogue with Trump. It's likely that you'll act like that.

But in this situation, they sent troops to Ukraine. In a way, his military capabilities are relatively low. So I think North Korea will also take steps to control this.

After that, we will continue to criticize and increase the level of tension against us, but I think there is a limit to how much our troops can raise the level of provocation at a time when elite troops are escaping.

However, if you think about North Korea's power culture, especially when it's at a disadvantage, you can say that it's also a time to be careful because there's a possibility of this kind of unexpected provocation.

[Anchor]
Meanwhile, it has been observed that North Korea is expanding tactical roads and installing guard posts near the military demarcation line. What does this mean?

[Yang Wook]
You have to look at this in a big context, too. If you look at it now, what North Korea is saying is that we are not one people, but another country, since the end of last year. It is a hostile country. After making that narrative, I'll tell you what to do, so now we'll cut off. So I worked hard on the show a while ago. He said that he was making fortresses by exploding and doing things.

If you want to make it a fortress, a lot of people have to protect it, right? However, North Korea is now forced to send troops back to Ukraine. If it's impossible to line up the entire border one by one and block it, if you're thinking about moving troops in here, the roads should be well-established. I'm telling you that if you want to defend well, you have to have a good tactical road.

That's the same for us. If we look at the GOP front area, the tactical roads are all over the place, so if the enemy comes in unexpected roads, we can't keep all of them, so a mobile strike team is quickly put in and overpower them. So I can tell you that overall, it's an action that strengthens that ability to fortify the border.

[Anchor]
One more point about North Korea's move, it ordered the border artillery unit to be fully prepared for fire. And the coastal artillery door is also open. Looking at these trends, what do you think about the possibility of local warfare other than low-intensity provocations such as garbage balloons?

[Yang Wook]
Of course, there is. As I said earlier, if they say that they are at a disadvantage, North Korea is more likely to act like a placebo. What is most certain at this time is that when it comes to such a time, the enemy can never think of such an idea again, so I will tell you this much that North Korea will not be able to imagine another provocation only when the region is completely devastated.

[Anchor]
Finally, if I ask you a final question, it has become a complicated situation in our government. Please briefly point out what kind of response direction or strategy is needed in the future.

[Yang Wook]
The important thing is to protect our national interests, our security interests as much as possible. First of all, North Korea will be monitored while the possibility of North Korea's provocations continues, but North Korea's activities to increase its national power and capabilities through overseas should be prevented through another means. In that regard, our diplomatic power will have to make a lot of effort, and the national intelligence agency will have to do more.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. Thank you for listening so far. I was with researcher Yang Wook.