status of north korean troops moving to western russia

■ Host: Anchor Han Yeon-hee
■ Starring: Former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This is a Korean Peninsula review time to analyze North Korean issues and diplomatic security news on the Korean Peninsula in depth. Today, former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok came out. Hello,

[Kim Hyung-seok]
Nice to meet you.

[Anchor]
First, let's look at the news of the North Korean military dispatched to Russia, which is receiving the most attention these days. There are already reports that they have headed to the front line, so please point out the current situation first.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's coming out of Ukraine right now. Basically, I've already confirmed that the United States, NATO, and the international community have sent troops from North Korea to Russia. Isn't that because it was moved by a Russian naval ship in early October? Therefore, they were prepared in advance in the eastern part of the Union of Russia, and this time they were sent to the western part of Russia and the Kursk region. And there are also testimonies that some of them saw North Korean soldiers from Ukraine.

[Anchor]
The Kursk region you mentioned was occupied by Ukraine in August, so we'll see until the end, but if we deploy North Korean troops here, is there a good reason for that?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
First of all, from Russia's point of view, the war is already in its third year, and it is difficult in many ways. What the situation is, especially now, I'm conscripting and using mercenaries, and my monthly wage was 300 dollars, but I can't even say that I'm going to pay about 2,000 dollars. So there's a real situation where it's difficult to secure combat troops, and then secondly, from a Russian point of view, it was occupied by Ukraine. It's a very self-respecting area. So, in order to overcome the tide of war first in this area, combat troops are very important, so I think that's why I asked the North Korean military to accept it.

[Anchor]
First of all, President Putin no longer denies sending troops. We'll have to figure out what and how to do with North Korea. If we say this, there's a high possibility that we'll go in this way to insist on and show off the need for military cooperation, right?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I think it's big. I think that's probably the case in the beginning. So, the North Korean military's participation in the war in Ukraine is a change in character itself. Because it's going from bilateral to international war. So I think North Korea and Russia tried to disguise it in the beginning. But we can't hide it anymore because the Korean intelligence unit checks this and talks about it publicly, starting with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Then, we literally go head to head here. So, if you look at it now, there is no mention that North Korea has ratified it yet, but doesn't it include the comprehensive and strategic partnership agreement agreed at the North Korea-Russia summit in June, the so-called automatic military intervention clause? It was said that Russia ratified this quickly. Initially, the expectation was that it would be around the middle of next month, but I did it quickly.

So based on this, we're going to go head-to-head with literally doing it based on international norms. In doing so, wouldn't this itself require further cooperation from North Korea now? One basis for justifying that, we will continue to do well in that way, and if the various wars of the Ukraine war themselves are at a disadvantage, wouldn't North Korea be the only one to receive support from Russia? Then you will continue to receive such support from North Korea. [Anchor] In signing and ratifying the treaty, the basis has been laid, so we will proceed further. You gave us a prospect like this, but I think it's a little difficult for us. In order to achieve denuclearization, cooperation from China and Russia is very necessary, but participating in the war will lead to a relationship that is better than the relationship so far and a relationship of blood alliance, right? I'm very worried, but wouldn't this make it harder for us to approach North Korea's denuclearization?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It gets harder. So, denuclearization requires cooperation between China and Russia, and until 2016, China and Russia still cooperated in sanctioning North Korea for denuclearization. But you can't do it after that. And in recent years, the activities of the North Korea Sanctions Committee itself have failed because Russia opposes it and does this. However, as it is now, China and Russia have a stronger relationship with North Korea, especially leading to blood alliance. Then, I think there is a limit to the way denuclearization has been done so far. But what we should see here was how this denuclearization issue would move North Korea based on the existing so-called cooperation between China and Russia until the early 1990s. But here, in a way, North Korea used a number. Isn't it difficult if China and Russia don't defend North Korea's position? So, from North Korea's point of view, we should definitely tie China and Russia together. From that point of view, we haven't done anything decisive for China yet, but for Russia, there are advantages and disadvantages from Kim Jong-un's point of view to sending troops when Russia is in trouble.

There are crises and opportunities, but Russia has been reliably supported by this dispatch. Then, it is difficult for Russia to make a different voice about North Korea's position in the future, and for example, there is a threat to the North Korean system as usual. Then, as North Korea did, Russia's military support will automatically come, so in a way, it can be seen that Chairman Kim Jong-un has used this kind of strategy to prevent China and Russia from acting contrary to North Korea's position. If so, from our perspective, we should also make denuclearization efforts based on the denuclearization approach so far and cooperation between China and Russia. However, if the so-called North Korea-China-Russia cooperation is strengthened as a whole, the denuclearization issue should be resolved by approaching the weakening of North Korea-China-Russia cooperation and the decline of North Korea-China-Russia power. So it's become more comprehensive and more complex.

[Anchor]
But on the other hand, it seems that you are very close to Russia, but you have shown a lot of estrangement from China, right?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I don't think so. It's not that I was estranged, but if you look at it traditionally, today is basically the 74th anniversary of the Chinese military's participation in the Korean War. That's why China and North Korea have all celebrated. So, the relationship with China is a fundamental blood alliance, albeit slightly curved, because North Korea helped when the so-called China was chased by the Kuomintang, and the Chinese army helped when North Korea was on the verge of destruction in the Korean War.

[Anchor] The
But they gave meaning to the things they celebrated together until now, but this time, they celebrated separately.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's not that I'm going to put too much meaning into it. Because there are strategically North Korea and China, it is too much to say that such a fundamental relationship is undermined just because they did not do it jointly.

[Anchor]
I see. In fact, the most curious thing is why North Korea chose to send troops, but this is the most curious part. In the case of North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea have been developing nuclear weapons because of their policy of confrontation with North Korea in order to complete their logic, but if South Korea and the U.S. are really a threat, it doesn't make sense to take out the best troops and send them to Russia, does it? Then, North Korea's claim of a security threat was only intended to justify its nuclear development, and on the other hand, I wonder if it was dispatched because it had benefits beyond this, but why do you think it was dispatched?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
So, North Korea said that nuclear development is for the protection of the regime, but after it already declared the completion of the national nuclear force in 2017, it said it was a means of attack. So it's already been decided that this isn't because their security is violated. The second is that we keep saying that we or the United States invade North Korea, but there is no reason for Korea or the United States to invade North Korea, right? Don't you say you won't? So even though it's a special force, it's not that many. So in a way, 1.2 million, of which 150,000 are special forces, but since it's 10,000, about 10,000 is not a lot. If you take this out, Korea or the United States will suddenly attack you? I'm saying it's not like this. So, it's not on that level of security, but I think there's this nuclear development, but I'll send the troops as a whole, and as I said before, I'll definitely tie China and Russia, especially Russia, to North Korea's position. Then, North Korea does not deal with the United States alone, but because China and Russia are behind it, North Korea's system survival and their voices grow even more.

I think we sent troops in that sense. So if you send troops, it can be a Kim Jong-un-style grand design, and if you do this, your position will increase, and if you look at it from the perspective of the United States, your priorities will drop a lot when you look at it simply as a problem between the two Koreas. But it's not like this, but it's directly coming to the so-called frontline for the United States. Then your priorities will go up. From North Korea's point of view, the possibility of dealing with the United States increases. Anyway, there is something like this when Kim Jong-un dispatched, but what Kim Jong-un has to think about now is that if we or the United States unilaterally withdraw the war in Ukraine from Afghanistan, for example, there is a problem if Russia goes to the upper hand, but that may not be it.

Then the so-called right to self-defense in the war in Ukraine will be completely defeated. Then some kind of Russia or China can't play the role of North Korea's backbones. So, if there is one danger and the second thing is that you sent troops, you don't talk about it inside North Korea yet, but when you talk about it inside North Korea, there are psychological fluctuations, and this can happen. As we did in the past, we sent troops to the Vietnam War and went to the Middle East construction, and now the North Korean soldiers receive about 2,000 dollars, right? Then you get about $240 a year, a huge amount of foreign currency. If the money goes to North Korean soldiers, North Koreans say it's good to make our money, but don't you go? This goes to North Korean governance funds. If that happens, what is this inside North Korea? Then it can shake up the regime inside North Korea and bring about cracks.

[Anchor]
North Korea admitted to sending troops to Russia yesterday. If such a thing happens, it is in line with international norms, but is North Korea and Russia justified in sending troops because they are allies?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. So in a way, it's a violation of the UN Security Council's resolution to send North Korean troops now. So, the vice minister in charge of Russia comes out and talks about it. It's very unique. Pay attention to all of those things, but they are not directly involved in what the Ministry of National Defense does because they are the Foreign Ministry. However, if that happens, it would be a legitimate act of international norms. This is really like that. But anyway, this itself is actually a poet. It's a kind of public opinion battle to say that this is a legitimate and legitimate act as a sovereign state, or something like that.

[Anchor]
As you said earlier, they are not informing internally. However, if you look at the NIS's announcement, you say that rumors are circulating, and you are moving the families of the troops in groups. As you mentioned earlier, could you point out what psychological impact the dispatch will have when it is known to North Koreans?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
As of now, it's probably only a matter of time. What's being delivered to North Korea is... I think it's known, and then there are 10,000 people, but it would be practically difficult to pick up 10,000 people and separate the families into separate regions. So we're going to separate the possibilities that have limited problems, and that may be problematic. I'm going to do it like this. Basically, it's the position of the North Koreans and the parties. Overall, North Korean soldiers are also struggling with food shortages, so isn't it good not to worry about food if they are dispatched there? For example, if you make great achievements there, you will be able to cross the ladder of the hierarchy as a party, but in some cases, you will be captured, killed, or in large-scale desertion. Then this is really serious for those parents.

Then, internal anxiety becomes clear. There is no means for North Korea to calm down on this itself. For example, would you give that money to North Koreans when you get 2000 dollars? I won't give it to you. And this is our war of justice for U.S. imperialism, so just take it as fate here. This is also fate, but in the case of North Koreans, they can't just stay there with their own children dying. And if it's ordinary North Koreans, you might not know, but if you look at it now, the elite North Korean soldiers are simple, such as officers. Then, even within the North Korean leadership, why does this happen by participating in such a country unnecessarily? So a crack in the inside. Then, even within North Korea, it seems that North Korea is now gaining the upper hand by holding Russia tightly in a big way, but overall, I think there is also a factor in such a crisis.

[Anchor]
I see. So far, we've looked at the situation of sending troops to North Korea and the future prospects. Thank you so much for talking today. Thank you.