[Appearance] "North Korean troops enter Ukraine"...a series of news of war

■ Host: Anchor Jeong Jin-hyung and anchor Lee Eun-sol
■ Starring: Shin Seung-ki, head of the North Korea Strategy Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Development (KARI)

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 8PM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
News about the North Korean military's participation in Russia is coming in every day. As reported, today, news is being reported that the North Korean military has entered Ukrainian territory. Let's take a look at it with a related news expert. Shin Seung-ki, head of the North Korea Strategy Office at the Korea National Defense Research Institute, came out. Please come in. The first thing we need to point out today is that the North Korean military has already penetrated into Ukraine, according to the report earlier. Of course, this is not yet officially confirmed by the Korean government authorities. CNN quoted two Western intelligence officials as reporting, but should I say it's possible?

[Newrider]
It seems more likely to be true. In fact, there is a possibility that the North Korean military may have penetrated limitedly in order to collect information on some of the so-called sexes that were sent first among the North Korean troops and to understand the level of power of the Ukrainian military that will actually fight in the future.

[Anchor]
On a limited basis, what does that mean? To try to infiltrate on a limited basis.

[Newrider]
I think there will be a measure of how to respond and how to operate and provide information on the larger North Korean troops to be sent later so that the North Korean military can respond appropriately and well.

[Anchor]
In fact, so far, the North Korean military has only gathered in the Kursk region occupied by Ukraine, and isn't it a situation that has gone further in the situation where only these news came out? If this is true, what part of Ukraine will you be entering?

[Newrider]
Because the North Korean military is basically a special war force specialized in penetration and rear disturbance, it is likely that Russian forces have infiltrated some Ukrainian territory through the Viktorbuka region under the protruding Kursk region, which is considered relatively dominant over Ukrainian forces.

[Anchor]
So, as you said, the North Korean military seems to have penetrated some of it, and CNN also reported that the North Korean military has already penetrated Ukraine. So, it seems that the North Korean military's participation in the war is in full swing. However, isn't the time to infiltrate this period in earnest faster than expected? In fact, when the former general came out here and continued the appearance conversation with him, he would have had enough training time for about three months and then infiltrated him, so what do you think about the timing, don't you think it's too fast?

[Newrider]
First of all, Russia will be at a disadvantage if its territory is taken away in order to gain the upper hand in the negotiations with Ukraine and the cease-fire negotiations regarding the war that can be expected in the future. That's why it seems to be trying to recapture its territory, the Kursk region, as quickly as possible. There seems to be more political intentions in particular. In this regard, Russia seems strongly determined to restore the Kursk region by the end of this year or early February next year, the third anniversary of the Russo-War.

[Anchor]
The fact that it penetrated this quickly puts the situation in Russia at a disadvantage, should I understand it like this? [Shin Seung-gi] I guess that the intention is more reflective of President Putin's political support rather than the disadvantage of the charter itself.

[Anchor]
However, there are not many wars, but we can see the cases where allies participate in the war when it happens like this, what about the cases when they participated in the war? If you look at past cases?

[Newrider]
In recent years, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have involved Western countries, pro-U.S. allies, or allies themselves. However, even though it has been circulating for many years, it has been a relatively small number of troops compared to the U.S. and has made up for some shortcomings in the operation of some U.S. troops. The large-scale dispatch of the North Korean military temporarily involves more than 10,000 divisional troops, and of course, because it is a special war force, the division will not push on the front line like ordinary infantry, but it is difficult to rule out some parts that can affect the charter.

[Anchor]
As you said, the North Korean military's direct combat on a large scale of more than 10,000 people has really expanded the battle, so how do you see this now?

[Newrider]
First of all, the exact thing is that there is actually a collision and we need to look at the situation. In fact, even at the start of the Ukraine war, most experts had already analyzed that Russia would not invade before that, and when the actual war broke out, the prevailing opinion was that Ukraine would give in with Russia's overwhelming power of one to two months. As NATO, led by the U.S., supported the actual war, as you know, some of the situation has been pushed back. That's why we have to see what happens when the actual North Korean troops are deployed and start fighting. [Anchor] Is it still unpredictable?

[Newrider]
So far, it is a little difficult to predict.

[Anchor]
Yesterday, the two leaders of South Korea and Ukraine had a telephone conversation with each other, and the two leaders agreed to pursue strategic consultations for a joint response. However, the joint response is expected to include step-by-step measures such as supporting weapons of death, and I was wondering from what point the step-by-step measures will become a reality.

[Newrider]
Personally, I think there is a possibility from the time when the dispatched North Korean troops are on the defensive, where the situation is against the Ukrainian military because they are fighting better than expected.

[Anchor]
The Korean government can respond step by step, and provide weapons of destruction to Ukraine step by step. When I expressed this position, there was talk of 155mm shells in the first place. By the way, Ukraine has never asked for shell support. I said at today's briefing that this is not true? What do you think about the possibility? As for 155mm shell support.

[Newrider]
As you know well, the Ukrainian military is always running out of shells. It's not enough for the actual level of the Ukrainian military's desire to carry out the battle, and of course we hope to supply a lot of bullets, including 155mm. But for us, we need to be a little careful. Basically, 155mm shells are one of the most destructive shells that can be available to the ground forces right now. Therefore, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia will provide support and cooperation to North Korea to a level we never want in retaliation, along with strong Russian opposition. It seems that we need to take a more cautious approach in that area because, so-called, it can provide an excuse.

[Anchor]
Then, the North Korean military's participation in the war will begin in earnest, and our country will respond step by step accordingly. What level of support can be provided other than 155mm shells?

[Newrider]
Although the Ministry of National Defense also mentioned it, the North Korean military voluntarily surrendered through psychological warfare. If that happens, there will be division and agitation within the North Korean military. That's why we don't send combatants directly in that aspect, but we have a part where we can provide adequate support to Ukraine in terms of non-lethal. In particular, if you look at the North Korean military constitution, it is actually our people who live in our territory. So, if the North Korean military sympathizes with and follows our Constitution, recognizes its value, and surrenders, if we say we will go to South Korea, we should of course accept it, and it is highly likely that most of the North Korean troops, especially low-ranking fighters, were sent without knowing what the situation was. Therefore, even on a humanitarian level, it should be seen that there is a natural obligation to survive and save the North Korean military.

[Anchor]
Then, it is too early to provide weapons of destruction, and we have to wait and see until it is actually done.

[Newrider]
First of all, it is meaningful to see how the situation is going and to go step by step, depending on the situation, not only from the Ministry of National Defense but also from the president's office.

[Anchor]
He analyzed that humanitarian support in the same dimension as psychological warfare would be provided first. The North Korean military's participation in the war and military cooperation between North Korea and Russia are directly linked to our security. There are many people who look at us like this, but what do you think is the most worrisome part for us, the international community?

[Newrider]
In return for the dispatch, North Korea will receive considerable foreign currency, food, and resources from Russia. And North Korea will continue to develop new weapons, and of course, it will receive the core technologies, parts materials, and know-how needed for this. This could be a serious concern for our security and defense in that we can further advance North Korea's power level faster than it is now. And the security situation in Europe, where the security alliance between North Korea and Russia is actually confronting Russia, could be more unstable than it is now. And from this point of view, I would say that there is a great concern in that there is a possibility that the security environment of Europe and Eurasia, along with the Korean Peninsula, may deteriorate at the same time.

[Anchor]
But there are some questions about why the North Korean army is. So, by Russian standards, there are countries such as Belarus, which are geographically close, the closest country, and the anti-Western country, so why did the North Korean military, which is thousands of millimeters away, participate in the war? There's a question about this. Why do you think this is?

[Newrider]
If Belarus, which directly borders NATO members, participates in the war, it can actually be a direct justification for NATO's participation. Russia may well be considering this too. Therefore, it seems that it is more desirable to push for the dispatch of North Korean troops from Asia, not Europe, to avoid this.

[Anchor]
North Korea is also preparing for provocations. The Ministry of Defense and Information announced that this move was detected today that there is a possibility of launching an ICBM soon. I have enough intentions for this part. I should look at it like this, right?

[Newrider]
Once the launch point of the projectile has been developed, as mentioned by the Ministry of National Defense, it can be evaluated based on past cases that preparations for launch are actually completed.
Some fine adjustments will be needed, but in fact, what is left is only Chairman Kim Jong-un's order to launch.

[Anchor]
But doesn't it vary depending on the fuel?

[Newrider]
In the case of liquid fuel, it takes time to inject and internal corrosion or various problems can occur when done for too long. Since North Korea claims to have developed a technology that can store propellants developed by Russia in the past for a long time, ballistic missiles using liquid fuel engines are likely to be launched in a short period of time if Kim Jong-un orders them. Ballistic missiles that use solid propellants can be launched immediately because they already have propellants. Therefore, in fact, it is better to say that the possibility of firing within a short period of time for the two types is already prepared.

[Anchor]
In fact, North Korea is expected to move internally due to the dispatch of troops. There were reports like this and the analysis of the National Intelligence Service, but there were also reports that preparations for provocations against South Korea and the U.S. are being made. How should we look at this period? Next week is the U.S. presidential election, so when do you think it's more likely before and after the presidential election? Do you think the pancake is high or the latter is high?

[Newrider]
It is also intended to externally express North Korea's internal agitation and dissatisfaction following the deployment of troops, but as you said, it seems to be intended to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election and influence the candidate who sees North Korea as favorable. Therefore, it will be possible in advance and after death through provocations that can affect this presidential election. Therefore, there must be an intention between North Korea and the U.S. to lay the groundwork in their favor in negotiations with the U.S. president who will be elected and elected after the U.S. presidential election and lead the next four years.

[Anchor]
This time, the provocation toward South Korea and the U.S. should be viewed as a constant, and then it would be a matter of that period. Then, when we look back on this meaning, is the intention to increase the ransom, or should we say that the goal is greater to strengthen the solidarity within North Korea, which is now agitating?

[Newrider]
First of all, it seems ambiguous to rate both higher and lower. First of all, the dispatch of troops seems to be clearly raising the level of agitation and dissatisfaction within North Korea. And since the U.S. presidential election is within two weeks, if provoked at this point, it will have a greater impact on negotiations with the U.S., so it is expected to pursue provocations against South Korea and the U.S. in order to maximize the effectiveness by taking both of them together.

[Anchor]
With the seventh nuclear test continuing to be raised since the U.S. presidential election, what do you think North Korea is aiming for through participation in the war?

[Newrider]
As I said earlier, North Korea will try to improve the difficult economic situation by receiving considerable foreign currency, food, and resources from Russia in exchange for sending troops to Russia. Then, we will continue to develop such new weapons systems through core technologies, parts materials, and know-how necessary for new weapons development to strengthen military deterrence. And what's important is that I ended up becoming a blood ally. Therefore, in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, there seems to be a great intention to actually secure Russia's direct dispatch of troops. That is why, ultimately, North Korea seems intent on solidifying Chairman Kim Jong-un's system by externally strengthening its deterrence against the outside world.

[Anchor]
If I ask you one last question, do you think there is enough room for the war itself to expand due to the participation in the North Korean military?

[Newrider]
Up to now, if neighboring countries have supplied weapons and led to a de facto proxy war, North Korea's massive dispatch of troops and countries that suggest the need for dispatch among some NATO countries are increasingly likely to turn into an international war, in which many countries participate and participate in wars at the same time.

[Anchor]
I see. The meaning and outlook of the North Korean military's full-fledged participation in the war were examined with Shin Seung-ki, head of the North Korea Strategy Office at the Korea Institute of Defense. Thank you for talking today.