[News Now] North Korea May Launch New ICBMs...Do you want me to provoke you before the U.S. presidential election?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Moon Sung-mook, Director of the Unification Strategy Center of the Korea Institute for National Strategy

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's talk with Moon Sung-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center of the Korea Institute for National Strategy, on the situation related to North Korea. Welcome, director of the center.

[Moon Sung-mook]
Hello,

[Anchor]
It seems a little unusual that Chairman Kim Jong-un's position came out right after a few hours of provocation, so what do you think it is?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's right. Usually, if you make a provocation and make ICBMs, ballistic missiles, or various military provocations, you'll see that North Korea has been reported to North Korean media the next day. But this time, I reported quickly. I think this is a premeditated, premeditated provocation. You said it earlier.Ma is now making a reckless and illegal provocation that Kim Jong-un has never had before.

We're sending large-scale troops to Russia, the war of aggression. Kim Jong-un also decides to do so, and there are expectations from this, but there will be a lot of anxiety. The international community is warning you a lot. So, was it yesterday? Russia has also launched ICBMs.

And then North Korea fired as if they were waiting right away. In doing so, I think it's an attempt to reduce the pressure on them by showing that we are both nuclear powers with ICBMs and nuclear weapons, without ever giving in to the threats and pressures of the international community.

[Anchor]
I think the exact specifications should be analyzed now, but it's ICBM now, can I look at it neatly like this?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course. There are reports from the Japanese Defense Ministry. Perhaps the details are between the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the U.S. and South Korea. If you launch a missile now, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are sharing it in real time. So if you look at what's out now, it's said that the altitude is 7000km. If it's fired at a high angle and it's 7,000km, it's well over 15,000 when it's fired at a normal angle. It's an ICBM.

And it says that the flight distance is 1 hour and 26 minutes. In December last year, North Korea shot a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM, and if you look at what came out then, North Korea also announced it. It has an altitude of 6518 kilometers. And since the flight time is 73 minutes and 35 seconds, that is, 1 hour and 13 minutes, this time, the altitude is 500km higher than last year. The flight time also increased by about 10 minutes.

[Anchor]
Does the increased flight time mean you're going further?

[Moon Sung-mook]
You can go further. It should be seen as an ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with solid fuel, but not long ago, Kim Jong-un was last September. I once unveiled a 12-axis ICBM launch pad. [Anchor] I revealed it last month.

[Moon Sung-mook]
So last month is right, it's September. So, the missile Hwasong-17, which North Korea revealed as a monster missile with 12 axes at the time, is 11 axes. It's 11 axes, but 12 axes means that the body has grown that much.

[Anchor]
So, on that screen, Chairman Kim Jong-un is touching the wheels, but increasing the number of wheels means that the missile is longer, does that mean?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's right. It gets longer and heavier. If it gets longer and heavier, you can increase the weight of the warhead and send it further, you can calculate it like this. Kim Jong-un is now focusing on ICBMs, in other words, multiple warheads that can hit many places. But to do that, it needs to get longer and heavier. You can think of it as showing off right now.

[Anchor]
Now that I think about that picture, you had an intention, right?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course. By forewarning that in advance, we go in this process. No matter how much pressure you put on us and ask us to stop, we're going to go, and this is what we need to pay attention to here. Kim Jong-un is currently gripped by a sense of crisis that the internal situation in North Korea is very difficult, especially the dispatch of troops could lead to a much greater agitation. The way to overcome that is to heighten the atmosphere of war.

They call it South Korean ones now, when North Korea calls us. The Republic of Korea stuff, garbage is trying to invade us and they are trying to invade us with the United States. So, not long ago, 1.4 million young North Koreans wrote a resolution saying they would go back to the military, right? By firing ICBMs and provoking them in this atmosphere, our great leader is a great leader who can win such a war.

We have to put up with it even if it's hard for us. I also intend to create this atmosphere. So, I think there is an external intention and an internal intention.

[Anchor]
There must be such a purpose to build a justification for dispatch internally, but you just said it was a high-angle launch. There was also a possibility of a sharp launch, not a high-angle launch, if North Korea provokes an ICBM, but this time it chose a high-angle launch. What do you think it's for?

[Moon Sung-mook]
But doesn't ICBM have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers? If North Korea shoots from Pyongyang or North Korean soil, where would you shoot if you shoot like that? You can't shoot to the U.S., you can't shoot to Europe. The only place you can shoot is that South Pacific, where North Korea shoots when it launches a spy satellite.

[Anchor]
What do you mean by that?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's why it's this. A normal angle launch would be like this when you actually attack your opponent with an ICBM. However, because it is not possible to do so now, North Korea has fired ICBMs such as Hwaseong-15, 17, and 18 several times, but never at a normal angle. I kept firing at a high angle. So, what you can do by firing at a high angle is an altitude, and in the case of an ICBM, isn't it composed of three stages?

Separate from the first stage, separate from the second stage, and separate from the third stage. It's about checking these separation systems and things like that. That's why North Korea's ICBM technology has not been completed, according to the international community and experts. The reason is that it has never been fired at a normal angle, and that the warhead, which went up thousands of kilometers outside the atmosphere, must be able to prevent high heat and hit the target in a normal state when re-entering, but it has never been verified. So that's why I think it's still incomplete.

[Anchor]
It remains to be seen whether Russia will reduce it or not, right?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Kim Jong-un must be desperate for that. Anyway, Kim Jong-un wants to secure that skill, secure multi-warhead technology, and have the ability to hit Washington, New York, and the West at the same time with one shot, but I don't know if Putin will give it. If you give it to me, I think we have to wait and see when it will be given and how much it will be given.

[Anchor]
As expected, North Korea continues to raise the level of provocations with the U.S. presidential election just around the corner. And another thing, along with the ICBM provocation, there is a situation in preparation for a nuclear test. Kim Jong Un's decision is all that's left. I heard that.

[Moon Sung-mook]
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests so far. In 2006, he conducted the first nuclear test, and he has done it six times, but he has done it four times in Kim Jong-un's term. Kim Jong-un has made all-out efforts to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. for the past 13 years That's why North Koreans have become that much more difficult. You can see it like this, but Kim Jong-un did a show once in 2018.

There was a show to blow up the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. So the so-called moratorium, May 25th just before the summit, to show Trump that he is willing to denuclearize. At that time, there was a show where only reporters gathered and blew it up.

[Anchor]
It's this painting, which the whole world paid attention to.

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's right. I paid attention and I saw it as a show. Because I didn't blow up all that deep shaft. Because I blew up only the entrance.

[Anchor]
It was in a state of being able to recover quickly.

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course. It was later proven that it was able to be restored at any time. A year after the show, I destroyed the moratorium and started to restore it again, and it's been talked about a nuclear test for a few years now. Kim Jong-un is currently gripped by a sense of crisis that the internal situation in North Korea is very difficult, especially the dispatch of troops could lead to a much greater agitation.

The way to overcome that is to heighten the atmosphere of war. They call it South Korean ones now, when North Korea calls us. The Republic of Korea stuff, garbage is trying to invade us and they are trying to invade us with the United States. So, not long ago, 1.4 million young North Koreans wrote a resolution saying they would go back to the military, right? By firing ICBMs and provoking them in this atmosphere, our great leader is a great leader who can win such a war.
We have to put up with it even if it's hard for us.

I also intend to create this atmosphere. So, I think there is an external intention and an internal intention.

[Anchor]
There must be such a purpose to build a justification for dispatch internally, but you just said it was a high-angle launch. There was also a possibility of a sharp launch, not a high-angle launch, if North Korea provokes an ICBM, but this time it chose a high-angle launch. What do you think it's for?

[Moon Sung-mook]
But doesn't ICBM have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers? If North Korea shoots from Pyongyang or North Korean soil, where would you shoot if you shoot like that? You can't shoot to the U.S., you can't shoot to Europe. The only place you can shoot is that South Pacific, where North Korea shoots when it launches a spy satellite.

[Anchor]
What do you mean by that?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's why it's this. A normal angle launch would be like this when you actually attack your opponent with an ICBM. However, because it is not possible to do so now, North Korea has fired ICBMs such as Hwaseong-15, 17, and 18 several times, but never at a normal angle. I kept firing at a high angle. So, what you can do by firing at a high angle is an altitude, and in the case of an ICBM, isn't it composed of three stages?

Separate from the first stage, separate from the second stage, and separate from the third stage. It's about checking these separation systems and things like that. That's why North Korea's ICBM technology has not been completed, according to the international community and experts. The reason is that it has never been fired at a normal angle, and that the warhead, which went up thousands of kilometers outside the atmosphere, must be able to prevent high heat and hit the target in a normal state when re-entering, but it has never been verified. So that's why I think it's still incomplete.

[Anchor]
It remains to be seen whether Russia will reduce it or not, right?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Kim Jong-un must be desperate for that. Anyway, Kim Jong-un wants to secure that skill, secure multi-warhead technology, and have the ability to hit Washington, New York, and the West at the same time with one shot, but I don't know if Putin will give it. If you give it to me, I think we have to wait and see when it will be given and how much it will be given.

[Anchor]
As expected, North Korea continues to raise the level of provocations with the U.S. presidential election just around the corner. And another thing, along with the ICBM provocation, there is a situation in preparation for a nuclear test. Kim Jong Un's decision is all that's left. I heard that.

[Moon Sung-mook]
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests so far. In 2006, he conducted the first nuclear test, and he has done it six times, but he has done it four times in Kim Jong-un's term. Kim Jong-un has made all-out efforts to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. for the past 13 years That's why North Koreans have become that much more difficult. You can see it like this, but Kim Jong-un did a show once in 2018. There was a show to blow up the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. So the so-called moratorium, May 25th just before the summit, to show Trump that he is willing to denuclearize. At that time, there was a show where only reporters gathered and blew it up.

[Anchor]
It's this painting, which the whole world paid attention to.

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's right. I paid attention and I saw it as a show. Because I didn't blow up all that deep shaft. Because I blew up only the entrance.

[Anchor]
It was in a state of being able to recover quickly.

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course. It was later proven that it was able to be restored at any time. A year after the show, I destroyed the moratorium and started to restore it again, and it's been talked about a nuclear test for a few years now. Kim Jong-un is trying to do it at the time he wants by tinkering with his nuclear test card in his pocket, but in fact, there is a clear military and technical need.

Because Kim Jong-un needs to make multiple warheads small and standardize them, and additional nuclear tests are needed to make them that can be mounted on various warheads. However, there are four shafts now, and as you can see over there, nuclear tests 6 were mainly conducted in shafts 1 and 2. So, the government authorities believe that the number 3 and 4 shafts can be done now, but the number 3 shaft is relatively large and is likely to be done there.

[Anchor]
Is it a little hard to do it again in the shaft where you originally conducted a nuclear test?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course, I can.Ma is practically difficult to use shafts 1 and 2 now. It's either number 3 or 4 that I didn't use, but it's probably going to be at number 3. They have been paying intensively, and now they are ready to do so whenever Kim Jong-un makes a decision and orders, but if Kim Jong-un conducts a nuclear test, there is also a benefit to be gained from it.

There are also disadvantages that you will suffer from this. Which one is bigger by calculating this. You have to choose the bigger one, but there are still many judgments that the disadvantages are greater.

[Anchor]
Did you just prepare it?

[Moon Sung-mook]
It is also intended to shake the international community by showing that you can do it at any time after getting ready.

[Anchor]
You must have conducted a lot of North Korea's own tests in six nuclear tests so far, but what parts will be more technically completed if you conduct the 7th nuclear test this time?

[Moon Sung-mook]
So, North Korea has now conducted six nuclear tests, including the power of nuclear warheads and various warheads. Plutonium, uranium, tritium, and hydrogen bomb, North Korea's claim. We've done a lot of different kinds of nuclear tests. But I just told you.Ma said that Kim Jong-un will continue to develop nuclear weapons until the completion stage, and that the number of nuclear warheads is now 70, 90, and more, but he also estimates that it can go up to 300.

In any case, Kim Jong-un will also believe that in order to develop various types of tactical nuclear weapons that this weapon can use, it is necessary to confirm and develop its capabilities through additional nuclear tests.

[Anchor]
First of all, Chairman Kim Jong-un is raising the level of provocations from various angles and has sent troops to Russia, but the North Korean military that has been dispatched has actually been put into battle now, so no. I think there are a lot of things to talk about. However, the photo of the Ukrainian military stealing the North Korean flag was released to the media and became a hot topic. Should I say this is true? How should I look at it?

[Moon Sung-mook]
So, if you look at it now, it is not easy to confirm the authenticity here because the Ukrainian military is spreading its weapons widely, and it is not confirmed whether it shows what Ukraine originally had or actually stole them from the North Korean military. However, more than 10,000 North Korean troops will be dispatched.

There is a lot of confirmation that about 3,000 of them have already gone to Russia and that the advance team has moved to the Kursk region, but it is said that they entered some actual combat areas and engaged with Ukrainian forces, they were killed, and only one remained.

There are also talks about this, but it is not easy to conclude that it is true yet because the Ukrainian intelligence authorities have not yet confirmed it. But anyway, I don't think there's a chance that they just went and sent them to play any role, so if there's any form of time and condition, it's probably going to be put in as early as possible, before it gets colder, that's how I see it.

[Anchor]
Russia continues to pretend, and Ukraine seems to have a long way to check this unless it officially confirms it. In this situation, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun is saying, "Should we send at least the troops that analyze information?" How do you see that?

[Moon Sung-mook]
So, it's happening far west from the Korean Peninsula, so some people wonder why we're involved in the war of other countries. Some people say this, but security and peace in the international community are all connected as one. Now Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an illegal invasion war, a criminal act that destroyed freedom and killed innocent people. North Korea is participating in the criminal act.

And many young people in North Korea are in a situation where they go and lose their lives. If, as a counter-benefit, Putin fills Kim Jong-un with the various weapons, technology, and equipment that Kim Jong-un wants, and the financial needs, all of them will come back as a threat to us. If so, we are absolutely not in a situation to look like a fire across the river. I have to stop it anyway.

Make Kim Jong Un's attempts frustrate, stop, or downplay. Anyway, that will reduce the impact on us to a minimum, so as you said, Minister Kim's story is that we can't send troops, but Ukraine is not good at Korean, right? You don't know North Korea well, do you?

In addition, we have the possibility that many of the young people may leave the scene in search of freedom, such as the situation of the North Korean military, what activities the North does on the battlefield. If so, we certainly have an aspect of opportunity as well. That's why I think it's a necessary step to help Ukraine, to help them in terms of language and information, to help them, to get what we get, and to send people who can cooperate, monitor or observe them.

[Anchor]
We have to figure out the reality ourselves?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's right. That's what we need in our national interest.

[Anchor]
I analyzed the North Korean trend. Let's stop here. I was Moon Sung-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center of the Korea National Strategic Research Institute. Thank you.