[News UP] North Korea claims "Hwasong-19 type, final ICBM"...What's the expert analysis?

■ Host: anchor Cho Jin-hyuk
■ Starring: Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's continue to go into detail about it. With Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Please come in.

[Yang Wook]
How are you?

[Anchor]
North Korea's report came out this morning. Regarding the fact that the ICBM was launched yesterday, it was called the Hwasung-19 type and the final ICBM, but should I say that he showed that much technical confidence?

[Yang Wook]
North Korea's ICBM development has been carried out according to its own road map, although it also senses technical confidence. In other words, the initial stage is to check the minimum function as an ICBM through the method of using liquid fuel, and that's what Mars-17 looks like. Since Hwaseong-18 shot last year, it has increased its ability by using solid fuel. It was the view of some experts, including myself, that Mars-18 was hard to reach for an attack on the American mainland. However, when Hwaseong-19 was unveiled this time, it boasted a considerable range or considerable payload.

So I think that's why we used this expression of the final version to mean that we've completed a weapon system that's capable of attacking the entire United States mainland. [Anchor] Looking at the flight time and altitude revealed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I think it's actually more advanced than before, but the maximum altitude is more than 7000km. And it is said that it flew 1,000km for about 86 minutes. This is the highest record ever. Is there any technological progress confirmed in this area?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. The Hwasong-18 that North Korea launched on December 18 last year was the last ICBM launch, and the flight time was 73 minutes and 35 seconds. I remember it reaching an altitude of about 5500-5600. If you think about that, it can be seen as a huge increase in range. Because when converted into that launch at that time, it is 15,000km, but if you convert that now, the weight remains the same, it exceeds 18,000km. Then North Korea doesn't have to fly up to 18,000. 15,000 is enough to attack the entire United States. This means that we can increase the payload weight than we do now. What will happen if that happens? Of course, the ICBM will get bigger. As a result, the launch vehicle used to be a 9-axis vehicle, but it increased by 3 more axles to become a 12-axis vehicle. One tire is thought to be less than 1.5m, so if the axis is stretched like this, it should be considered that the missile length is increased by more than 4-5m.

Almost then we used Hwasong-17, liquid fuel, which we say is the biggest ICBM in North Korea. It is almost the same size as the Hwasong-17, making a solid fuel missile. So if that's quite true, so the launch is now successful.How much weight did North Korea actually expect to fire? Since the exact weight of the simulated nuclear warhead has not yet been revealed, we need to check those parts, but anyway, I can tell you that it is the highest ICBM ever made by North Korea.

[Anchor]
Earlier, you said that it seems that solid fuel has been used since the Hwasong-18 type, but there is an advantage of using solid fuel rather than liquid fuel, right?

[Yang Wook]
Of course I do. The biggest thing is that immediate launch posture is possible. Of course, it is not impossible to launch immediately even with liquid fuel. These days, there's a way to preserve it for a long time.E. Nevertheless, solid fuel has the advantage of being much more conservative and much easier to launch immediately. So in order to send the message that we can threaten and attack the United States at any time, we also have to prepare around solid fuels. However, looking at North Korea's approach, it's not just good that the missile is large. As it grows, the range of activation or the time it takes to prepare it can increase even more. So in fact, if it's that size, it would be much more efficient and practical to launch from a silo, that is, a launch tube underground, but we're preparing to launch with a mobile launch vehicle like that. Of course, it seems to think that it has the advantage of being less detected when using a mobile launch vehicle.Nevertheless, I can tell you that North Korea still has limitations in nuclear operations and this.

[Anchor]
It is interpreted that there seems to be some threat and purpose of showing off. Earlier, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun assessed that North Korea's ICBM atmosphere re-entry technology is almost complete, so it is a structure in which the ICBM flies out of the atmosphere and then falls as it re-enters. The part where you re-enter the atmosphere at the end is considered like the last puzzle, what is your evaluation of this part?

[Yang Wook]
North Korea has never fired an ICBM at a normal angle.Ma can tell you that I already got the data I need there. What I mean is that didn't you launch a space rocket called Cheonlima 1? In fact, North Korea launched its Hwasong-17 ICBM by slightly changing its shape, and it has already succeeded in sending it out of the atmosphere at a normal angle in the process. Then, we need to check whether it is proper to enter the atmosphere at a normal angle, and if that part is confirmed, we can say that we can function as a weapon system to some extent. Of course, there are challenges after that. In other words, as you enter the atmosphere, you have to verify whether the multi-warhead can enter individually toward various goals, but in fact, there is still time until that point. North Korea shot it at a high angle, so this time, the high angle launch shot almost 88 degrees. The limit of the distance of 1,000 kilometers, so don't go over Japan and don't go to at least Japan's EEZ waters or Japanese territorial waters as much as possible. As you do this, you have to shoot it vertically because you have to shoot it within the limit of 1,000 kilometers. If you look at it now, if North Korea fires it vertically, it will also go out of the atmosphere and come in, so why do you talk about the normal angle? You may be curious about this. However, the difference between this is that it goes up and down vertically, and it wears less. But if you go horizontal, if you keep going at a 45 degree angle, there's a lot more area of wear and tear as you keep going.

[Anchor]
You'll be much more exposed to the atmosphere.

[Yang Wook]
That's right. Since it takes a long time to be exposed, you have to go through the same process when you go out and come in again, so shouldn't those parts be tested? Actually, this is not difficult. When you go outside and peel off the outer skin once, and then put another type of outer skin inside to come in, that's all. In fact, I don't think this will be that key to atmospheric re-entry technology. In my view, the important thing is how much North Korea is approaching its actual capabilities to the warheads. Because no matter how much North Korea re-enters the atmosphere now, it is at the level of intercepting with the missile defense system, starting with the GBI that the U.S. has now. However, when it is divided into multiple warheads, interception can be more difficult and the number of interception systems can be reduced, so there may be a limit and a bigger threat in that area. So whether or not North Korea can go that far seems more important to us.

[Anchor]
You said that the key is whether you have secured multi-warhead technology rather than atmospheric re-entry technology. What do you think of the possibility that Russia helped in this launch?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, I think it may not be easy to develop or provide technology directly because the period is short. It's not because I'm not going to give it away, but I think there's a limit to the time. However, there will be some know-how needed in the process of developing or doing these. In fact, Russia has launched so many missiles and developed so many types of nuclear warheads that the data it has is enormous. However, if some of those things were shared, I think it may have had a great impact on the success of the test launch. In fact, North Korea claims to have succeeded in just one missile launch. But first of all, there are aspects that look like that. So, I think there is a possibility that there was support from countries, including Russia, that this could have been done without a mistake.

[Anchor]
Even if it has had a limited impact this time, you are concerned that this development speed will increase in the future. Usually, the North Korean media reports on the next day after the missile launch, but this time, Chairman Kim Jong-un's position came out five hours after the missile launch. What kind of background do you see?

[Yangwook]
North Korea conducted an experiment related to the military, and the announcement was made almost immediately that day. Then, it means that it's that important to them. In other words, it can be seen as a meaning that this is their achievement that should be widely known to the outside world. The details of the experiment came out today and the next day.Ma did something very meaningful for us to immediately reveal the facts of the test. You guys stay alert, it's a message like that.

[Anchor]
Some say that this may lead to a nuclear test, but what do you think about the possibility of pushing ahead with a nuclear test?

[Yang Wook]
I understand that North Korea is willing to conduct a nuclear test at any time. In 2023, at the end of March last year, we already unveiled Volcano-31, a new nuclear warhead. What it means is that we're going to conduct a nuclear test. Rather, I thought I would do it within six months after North Korea unveiled it. Because it's been like that all this time. There were even cases where the experiment was conducted on the day of the release, in the case of the 6th experiment. But we haven't tested it yet. I think it's very likely that it's not something you don't do, but something you can't do. Because Volcano-31 is a very small nuclear warhead. The key technology here is called Explosive Lens, which means that you have to put nuclear materials inside and detonate them with a conventional bomb before causing nuclear fission. The smaller the size, the harder it is to cause an explosion. This requires a lot of know-how.

So I think North Korea hasn't approached that know-how yet, but Russia has the most data on this when it accelerates with Russia as we are sending troops like this. With a little help from Russia, the seventh nuclear test can be successful. So I think it is right to judge that the upcoming seventh nuclear test is now based on the help or advice of Russia. Perhaps that's why we judge that nuclear tests will happen soon. No matter what. Because this is a project carried out under the five-year national defense development plan. That started right after the 8th party congress in 2021. Then, it will be in the year after the 9th party congress. Next year is the last year of the so-called five-year defense development plan. You have to do it by next year. If you can't do this, all those involved have to be purged. Therefore, it is judged that North Korea tried to conduct a nuclear test earlier, and what has not been done so far is a technical problem. And it is now predicting that Russia will solve the technical problem.

[Anchor]
Therefore, I think we can understand that the close ties between North Korea and Russia come to us as a real threat. Let's move on to the question of sending North Korean troops now. An additional list of North Korean officers who went to Russia has been revealed. First of all, Deputy Chief of Staff Kim Young-bok, this person, was confirmed, and then two more were confirmed. Director of Reconnaissance General Lee Chang-ho and Major General Shin Geum-chul of the People's Army. What role did they move on to?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, as you know, Kim Young-bok was the commander of the special operations forces newly unveiled by North Korea in 2017. And he became the deputy chief of staff. In a word, he is trusted by Kim Jong-un. In fact, it's the same for Lee Chang-ho. This person was mentioned in about 2020 when he was also a director. If you're watching, you're the director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau. But what the Reconnaissance General Bureau is doing is the Reconnaissance General Bureau, which is in charge of South Korea, maneuvering, and intelligence. In the end, as you may remember, North Korea sent a drone over Seoul on December 26, 2022, and we went crazy once. He is likely to have ordered the operation. Next, sending trash balloons and sending filth balloons. I think the Reconnaissance General Bureau is also involved. In the end, it was Lee Chang-ho, the head of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, who decorated and ordered such actions behind his back. I can tell you that this is a very important person. And in the case of Shin Geum-cheol, I'm actually very unfamiliar with the name, so I think I need to check more information and tell you about this.

[Anchor]
If so, the North Korean military has engaged the Ukrainian military for the first time, no, there are many controversies. Anyway, there is a prospect that if North Korea participates in the battle with the Russian military this time, it will be able to learn tactics related to drones. What do you think?

[Yang Wook]
Last August, North Korea unveiled two converted drones it developed. If you look at the drone, it's similar to what the Russian military uses, but it's built in a slightly more advanced form than what the Russian military uses. What that means is that exports to Russia are fully in mind. That's how it was made. North Korea may not yet have a sufficient understanding of drone use tactics, but at least in terms of developing drones, it can be seen that it has some ability in that area. First of all, making ICBMs and cruise missiles is not that difficult to make drones. So in that context, I'm very concerned about North Korea entering the field with this drone that they've unveiled and North Korea operating it directly and increasing its practical capabilities.

But of course, this won't be easy. You know what I mentioned earlier.Didn't Ma say there were some skirmishes, no, there was a gab theory? I think we still need to check more, but for example, Twitter right now, it's X right now. If you look there, you will see the testimony of the North Korean soldier who seems to have been arrested. The Russian troops said they would put themselves in the defense line, but they just randomly put them in the attack, killing all of their colleagues. He is even testifying that all 40 people died and only he survived.

In other words, rather than having the idea that Russia will make use of these troops and North Korean troops to create an opportunity to reverse itself, it is simply trying to put them in front of us like a meat shield as the Minister of National Defense said not too long ago. So will North Korea be able to afford to learn such drone-related tactics? I'm also doubtful about that.Nevertheless, in any form, North Korea will make every effort it has to gain the know-how needed for modern warfare in this war. I can tell you this much.

[Anchor]
Yesterday, Ukrainian President Zelensky said, "There will be a battle soon within a few days, but it is not true that the current battle has taken place and that it has been deployed," but this part will be confirmed over time. At the same time, President Zelensky said he would ask South Korea for weapons support, but first of all, he said that the air defense system is the most necessary thing. What are they asking for?

[Yang Wook]
It's as easy as that. What it's about is what Ukraine is suffering the most right now, especially the Ukrainian civilians suffering, missiles still fly into the city center, including Kyiv. This is not just a war on the front lines, but Russia continues to fire missiles at the citizens, which is a very mean act in a way. It means that you want a system that can intercept missiles and self-destruct drones. This is why, as we review the phased provision, there are discussions about how difficult it is to attack weapons, but it is possible to some extent if it is a defensive weapon, isn't it?

If so, for example, it may be given a defensive weapon, such as a weapon that can be used to protect the Ukrainian people, not to kill the other side. These things are being said. In that context, I think it was requested by Zelensky. In other words, if we could deploy a missile defense system like Cheongung-2, I think our Cheongung missile interception system could see these parts of protecting the innocent people of Ukraine.

[Anchor]
On the other hand, President Zelensky said that if North Korean soldiers become prisoners during the battle, they will not repatriate them to South Korea but exchange them for their own prisoners of war. Isn't this something that needs to be discussed with us?

[Yang Wook]
It could be something that needs to be discussed with us.Ma has no choice but to respect this. This is because the Republic of Korea is not a country that participated in the war in Ukraine, nor is it a country that currently supports the weapons system. To be honest, we don't have much of a say right now. And it's so obvious that you can't blame this for exchanging captured soldiers of your own forces and personnel related to the enemy. In a way, this is a natural recommendation for Ukraine, and of course, that's what I have to say. Nevertheless, if we ask Ukraine to accept the number of people who are willing to defect to the country, then in the end, we have to be a little more involved in the relationship to the war in Ukraine to have the authority to say that.

[Anchor]
It is a reality that we are not directly involved. Let's stop here. I was with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you.