■ Host: Lee Yeo-jin, anchor Jang Won-seok
■ Starring: Cho Byung-je, professor of the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special Report-2024 U.S. Choice] when quoting.
[Anchor]
Then, let's talk to an expert about the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
We are joined by Professor Cho Byung-je of Kyungnam University's Far East Studies Institute. Please come in.
In fact, until the last minute, it was analyzed that it was a chaotic situation in fog, and even on the day of the election, there were many analyses that predicted Harris' winning rate higher. But how did it come to this? Did you expect that?
If you completely expected Trump to win from the beginning, that would be a little too much. Not long ago, there was a poll on whether President Biden was running the state administration properly or not, and only 28% answered that the country is going in a normal direction. So that's what American experts said. In this situation, it is unimaginable that the ruling party will be back in power, many people said. So if you look at the soil as a whole, it seems that there is a pretty high chance that Trump will be elected again because the sentiment of Americans is now more pessimistic than optimistic and then negative than positive, so you can see that there was soil. However, one thing that was a little uncertain was that Trump was originally like that, right? There are quite a few people who think that this style is not suitable for the president in a way because they talk rough and talk recklessly, so it will work negatively to some extent. So there's definitely soil, but I think it was a little uncertain how the American people would judge this style part.
[Anchor]
Looking at the competing states now, it has been confirmed that Trump took Pennsylvania, which is considered the most important competing state, early on. I also took North Carolina and Georgia. What do you think voters made this choice because Trump did well in this situation?
I think it was an economic issue. I told you earlier.I think the biggest reason was that voters did not realize that the economic situation was improving, as only 28% of people saw the country going right now. Pennsylvania was the key, followed by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan. This area called the three Rust Belt near the Great Lakes was originally a so-called Democratic stronghold that supported the Democratic Party in four presidential elections since 2000. And then in 2016, we went back to Trump. The reason why I went back then was also the economic problem.
So I left it to Trump and then I met COVID-19, so Trump is not getting this right. That's how we moved on to Biden in the 2020 presidential election. But when I went to Biden, the economic problem didn't improve at all, I can't do this. I think that the economy is Trump, and I think Pennsylvania is also working this time, and I think the impact is quite significant on Michigan and Wisconsin, so even if it doesn't work there, there will be a very narrow gap.
[Anchor]
Of course, the vote count is not complete, but all seven competing states now show former President Trump leading. Now, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are all led by former President Trump. What do you think of this part?
So if you look at it like this, I thought it would be too close to call it a competitive stock, but wouldn't that be the basis for the continuous public opinion poll? But the results of the poll were wrong back in 2016. Then you said you'd win by a big margin in 2020, but Biden almost narrowly won a little bit, didn't you? And he said it would be too close this time, but if you look at the current situation, Trump is far more dominant than too close, so why Trump won and the overall economic situation was not good is a big reason, but I wonder if pollsters have tried hard to fix the problems of this poll since 2016 and 2020, but they haven't yet.
There may be things like Shy Trump and Hidden Harris that we're talking about a lot in the media, but more than that, I think there may be some prejudice already underlying the pollster itself. What I mean is that the organizations that have been leading the polls were the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN. But these media organizations are actually on the side of the Democratic Party in the American presidential election, already. And among the leading media organizations we know very well, Fox News was the only one standing on Trump's side. So I'm trying a lot to do the polls that come out here objectively, but I wondered if there was a little prejudice that started with the sample survey, which is inevitable.
[Anchor]
Even so, I can't help but point out the prejudice you just mentioned that there is a problem with the polling technique because it is not just one or two mistakes and it keeps getting wrong in the three presidential elections. What specifically is the prejudice that the polling agency has?
For example, there's something like this. I don't know if something similar can be applied to Korea, but if you think you have a little sympathy with a call from a certain media or a certain polling agency, you'll get that call and respond quickly. But if that's not the case, I'm a big fan of Trump, but there's a pretty good chance I won't answer because CNN asked me.
[Anchor]
CNN does a lot of reporting criticizing Trump.
So, you can see it already.Ma has been talking about influential media from the past in the United States, for example, the New York Times.The Washington Post and CNN have been on the side of the Democratic Party during the presidential election. So, in Trump's view, there's this tendency to belong to a kind of media establishment. So it seems that the way voters see the media may be a little different from what they see outside of us. So I think that's what I'm talking about, maybe that's the kind of prejudice that's already underlying, and pollsters have tried so hard to get rid of it. I got it wrong in 2016, I got it wrong in 2020, but I got it wrong twice, so it's not fair, is it?
In order to fix that, I heard that the previous phone inquiries were made by e-mail and text this time, and then the method of weighting was changed, and I tried to correct it variously. Looking at the appearance this time, there are definitely some parts that are very difficult to correct technically. So I thought maybe there was a prejudice that was difficult to resolve from sampling. [Anchor] I also had this thought. I also thought that opinion polls might affect voting. Isn't there a period of prohibition in Korea that prevents new polls from being published a few days before the election? By the way, the U.S. releases new polls even on the day of the presidential election. So, it is analyzed that Harris will narrowly win at the last minute, so I think Trump supporters gathered at the last minute, what do you think?
That's what I thought. If you've seen the process, you'll know.There were also quite a few variations in the results of a poll on Ma's approval rating. Some of the things from the same media organization came out saying that Trump leads the nationwide, and then a little later, Harris leads, so there were other phenomena that confused people's public opinion. For example, isn't there a so-called betting site that received special attention during this presidential election process? At the end of the election, Trump suddenly rose to the upper hand in October, and there were rumors that operational forces worked on it, so I thought that the results of the poll, the announcement, and the release itself might be to influence the trend of election voting, as the anchor said earlier. Conservative media and conservative polling institutions have also come up with a lot. Although it didn't get to us directly. There are some doubts that all of those things were intended to influence votes.
[Anchor]
We've talked about the polls and what about the exit polls? I think the exit poll was a little different from the results.
I think exit polls may have the same bias. Don't you have an exit poll inquiry when we go to the election day and come out? Then, there are many times when they avoid it, so there can be no accurate investigation. And what can be different from polling is that the attitude you took during the polls and the attitude you take at the polls can be different, so I don't think the margin of error comes out in vain. You have to understand and acknowledge that.
[Anchor]
CNN continues to analyze the U.S. presidential election. We'll try to connect it live. Let's listen to it.
[Interview]
Donald Trump is doing better in almost every region. If you look at the electorate, that's the case.
[Anchor]
There were Democratic supporters who shot Reagan in the past. It was in the Midwest. It took a lot of time to bring those voters back. That's what happened once again. And the perception that the Democratic Party is the kind of party that supports whatever immigrants come in has not worked well. In the case of Latino voters, if you look at it this time, it can be seen that the negative impact on that area worked.
[Interview]
If you look at the bigger picture, it's President Trump who actually lost the election four years ago. And they even got a guilty verdict. And historically, it's shocking that such a president is elected again.
[Anchor]
That's right. But I think this election should be viewed as a vote for Democrats rather than a referendum on Trump. The vote in 2020 was for Trump. Voters were angry about the COVID-19 outbreak and gave an evaluation of Trump's handling of the pandemic. But in the case of the Democratic Party, it has failed to root out such a coalition of voters that supported them in 2020. In other words, that coalition of voters that supported Democrats in 2020 has been dissolved. When Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, that's the same thing. We can't create a coalition of voters that can win just by pointing out some cultural issues and Trump's xenophobia and all sorts of issues. Voters have shown that he can't win just by saying he's bad. At the end of the day, the economy was the problem.
[Anchor]
I think those parts also appeared in the exit poll. And the polls were quite wrong. And when you look at the polls, the percentage of people who actually think the country is going in the right direction is quite low. This itself was a favorable environment for Trump.
[Anchor]
There's a result like this. Eighty percent of voters who supported Trump thought the economy was bad during Trump, but it was bad during Biden. So we're actually talking about the economy a day after the election.In fact, just a few days ago, Ma said that abortion and immigration were important, and the Democratic Party also emphasized that. In fact, what voters really cared about was the economic problem.
[Anchor]
The Senate and House elections are still fully counted.Ma is in a situation where you can clearly see which one is in a situation to celebrate. Candidate Trump had just appeared at such a celebration and made a speech.
[Anchor]
I listened to CNN's analysis of the U.S. presidential election, and since it's a progressive broadcast, it's very shocking that Trump is doing so well, and I felt embarrassed saying this. In the end, I was doing the same analysis as the professor's, saying it was the economy.
I think it would have been visible. There are several topics that have been central to this presidential election, one of which was the issue of abortion rights and the right to terminate pregnancy, and the other was immigration. I lost a lot of votes because the Democratic Party was very poor in terms of immigration, and Trump was a bit wrong on the abortion rights issue. So I lost a lot of votes because of that and another issue was the economic problem. Trump continued to attack this very strongly and there was absolutely nothing for the Biden administration to put forward in that area, so Harris said, "I'm going to do well in the future, I'm going to push for an economic policy centered on the middle class." I've said this, but I don't think I've been able to comfort the public sentiment that's already disappointed.
[Anchor]
That's what happened to abortion rights. At the end of the day, Harris' camp also ran such a campaign, asking her to vote without her husband's knowledge. Didn't she sway the votes of female voters that much?
That's why abortion rights have been a concern for women, so I'm sure Trump has lost a lot because of that. And then Hidden Harris, who appeared at the end of October, so let's go and vote without her husband's knowledge, is this the end of October? At that time, Julia Roberts, a famous American actor, came out and put it in the advertisement, and the word became popular. I think I used the word Hidden Harris as a response to Shy Trump while watching this, but my personality seems to be a little different. Shy Trump was a term that he discovered while explaining what's wrong with this after pollsters failed in 2016 and 2020.
So, it was a term used to explain the phenomenon that was already there, and then hidden Harris is a term that inspires a little bit of expectation rather than explaining the phenomenon, so the personality is a little different. So the term Hidden Harris came out, but I think it's very hard to say how much it would have affected it. I think this is definitely a different story.
[Anchor]
Usually, there was a red mirage in which the Republican Party was ahead at the beginning of the vote count and the Democratic Party turned into the upper hand as it went back, but this time, it's unlikely, right?
If you look at the early voting tickets rather than absentee voting, most of the early voting places are counted according to the regulations of almost all states, but the announcement was supposed to be made in time for the end of the vote. So, early voting results appear late on the day the voting ends, and in the past, the rate of early voting was much higher for the Democratic Party. As a result, the votes that went to the Democratic Party of Korea were concentrated later on in the vote count, so there seems to have been a phenomenon in which the Democratic support vote rises later on. This time, Trump should actively vote in advance for Republicans, and we should do this well to win. I emphasized a lot. So this time, the ratio of early voting was quite high, and the survey showed that both Republicans and Democrats did it together. So, I think the early voting will be concentrated later and the Democratic Party's votes will rise sharply this year.
[Anchor]
Even though more than 83 million people participated in the early voting, it will not interfere with this trend.
So 83 million people voted in advance, but this is much less than what appeared in 2020. In 2020, nearly 120 million people voted in advance because of COVID-19. And in 2016, it was about 45 million. Even if it's released a lot this time, it's hard to say that it's only halfway between 2016 and 2020. Whether the votes cast in the early voting are favorable to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, I think this is a conclusion that can be made after analyzing all the results of the vote this time.
[Anchor]
As we continue to be counted on the U.S. presidential election all day long, we're paying so much attention to it even though it's not our country's presidential election. Where is the reason?
Since the United States is still a world superpower, it has been in an alliance with us for the past 70 or 80 years, and the question of which president of the United States comes in affects the overall world situation, including the Korea-U.S. relationship. It's very natural. On top of that, this election has a special aspect.
In my view, this election is at an inflection point that marks a milestone in the liberal international order that the U.S. has led for the past 70 to 80 years, and this is a turning point into Trump's political philosophy called American First, so depending on who will be this time, it will be decided whether the U.S. will continue to lead the catchphrase of the liberal international order or fold it here and turn to American First now, so it is a matter of utmost concern for us and I think it is natural for the media to show such interest.
[Anchor]
Not only Korea, but also many countries are paying keen attention to the U.S. presidential election. In particular, China and Japan cannot be left out. Now, Japan is also watching the results with such keen attention over the impact of the U.S. presidential election results on its country.
[Anchor]
That's right. In fact, with former President Trump's election becoming certain, the Japanese government is emphasizing that it will continue to cooperate with the next U.S. administration. I'll connect you to a local correspondent in Japan. Correspondent Kim Se-ho!
[Reporter]
It's Tokyo.
[Anchor]
How does Japan react to the results of the U.S. presidential election?
[Reporter]
The Japanese government said it is paying keen attention to the development and impact of the U.S. presidential election. Japanese government spokesman Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi made the comments at a regular briefing today and stressed that the U.S.-Japan alliance is the backbone of Japan's diplomacy and security. He added that it remains the basis for peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the international community. He also said that the security environment surrounding South Korea, the U.S. and Japan is getting more severe, and that there is no change in continuing to cooperate closely to respond. It said no decision had yet been made on the need for talks between high-level officials if the president-elect is confirmed. However, he explained that he wants to build strong trust and cooperation with the next U.S. regime to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance.
[Anchor]
Above all, the Japanese government is paying close attention to the impact on diplomacy, security, and trade, right?
[Reporter]
Japanese media are focusing on the atmosphere of former President Trump's camp in major competition states and breaking news that the victory is almost tilted. At the same time, they are also gradually analyzing the impact on security and the economy. If former President Trump is elected, there is a possibility that he will try to reduce the U.S. role in the Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system. In particular, former President Trump, like Korea, is likely to pressure Japan to increase defense costs. In the economic sector, former President Trump is determined to impose tariffs of up to 20% on products imported from Japan and other countries. Because of this, exports of major export items such as automobiles could also be directly hit. It also strongly criticizes Japan's weak yen, saying it is a disaster for U.S. companies, and it is expected to affect Japan's interest rate policy. The Japanese government is expected to work hard to come up with countermeasures over the impact of the U.S. presidential election on Japan's major policies as a whole. I'm Kim Se-ho of YTN in Tokyo.
[Anchor]
Chinese authorities have refrained from making official comments on the election, saying it is the U.S. internal affairs. [Anchor] But there have been various reactions in the private sector that predict Trump's election in advance. Let's go to China this time. Correspondent Kang Jeong-gyu.
[Reporter]
It's Beijing.
[Anchor]
First of all, please convey the official position of the Chinese authorities.
[Reporter]
At a briefing by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs this afternoon, questions were raised about the possibility of Trump's election. The answer is that this election is the internal affairs of the United States, and we can't answer hypothetical questions. Regarding the impact on China's foreign policy in the future, he gave a theoretical answer that he would consistently pursue peace and coexistence. The official position of the authorities is that no matter who becomes it, the U.S. strategy to check and pressure China will not change. However, the results have been so keen that the meeting to determine the size of the "Chinese version of the supplementary budget" has been postponed until after the U.S. presidential election. As Trump's less predictable election is likely, a little more active fiscal injection is expected.
[Anchor]
On the other hand, there was a very shrewd response from the private sector?
[Reporter]
Shares of IT companies listed on China's Shenzhen Exchange jumped to a cap of 10%. In Chinese, the name of the company is so-called "Trump meme stock," which means Trump's victory. On the other hand, thermos companies similar to Harris's range plunged 7.14%. On Chinese social media, the hashtag "U.S. presidential election" garnered 16 billion views and more than 4 million comments. It is said that an online vote involving more than 30,000 people was also conducted, with 74% predicting former President Trump's victory. However, certain candidate support posts are deleted due to censorship and cannot be found now. I'm Kang Jeonggyu of YTN in Beijing.
[Anchor]
I connected a Japanese and Chinese correspondent and heard the local response. There is a reason why we have looked at how we are responding abroad like this. Wasn't Korea also paying great attention to President Trump's remarks on the issue of defense cost sharing? You're talking about Korea as a rich country and a machine with money, what do you think about your future?
There were two topics that Trump has been talking about regarding Korea. One was the issue of defense cost sharing that you just talked about and the other was the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, but President Trump has shown very persistent interest in defense cost sharing. During Trump's presidency, he suddenly told us in 2017 to increase it by five times and pay $5 billion, but that was a good compromise then. Even after I left office, I didn't forget this $5 billion number, and I kept talking about it every time I met people. And we continued to complain that Korea lived well and did not treat the U.S. Forces in Korea properly, and not long ago, after we concluded the defense cost sharing, we talked about that. If I were you, I would have just received 10 billion dollars, and I've been showing very persistent interest in Korea because I talked about it again like this.
However, we need to see how this will affect us in the future. Trump didn't hesitate to make a promise and break it when he felt it was against us. If you look at it in the long run, the Climate Change Convention, it just left. Then the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP, didn't do it. I quit everything I didn't like on the spot. Didn't the Korea-US FTA also revised it by turning on even when Trump entered the country? So, I think there is a high possibility that there will be more talks in the future about this defense cost share.
[Anchor]
If it's 100 dollars a year, it's about 13.6 trillion won, so isn't it about nine times the amount we've already agreed to pay in 2026? What should we do if you really ask for this?
I'm sure Trump knows it well. There was a story like that while Trump was in office. There was a saying that Trump presented a formula that said he would receive 50% plus the cost of stationing troops abroad. It hasn't been done since Trump, but Trump's aides later said that Trump talked about it, so Trump sees this defense cost-sharing issue in terms of a little transactional. And you'll know a little bit. You probably know that what we're asking for is not normal, it's a fairly inflated amount, so the key will be how we can keep Trump's position alive and respond to the right extent, but in our view, Trump, it's really a sham, but Trump's remarks like that work for Trump's supporters in the United States.
Since Trump is a self-centered person and a very patriotic person, I think we need a strategy to help him live up to his self-esteem and show how much Korea is doing to defend itself.
[Anchor]
I think ordinary private companies will also be worried. Former President Trump talked a lot about tariffs at the end of the campaign. Of course, during his term in office, the trade war with China was quite severe. As a result, our companies were also damaged. How do you think we should solve the tariff problem of our companies in the future?
Even when Trump was in office last time, Korean companies suffered a lot. And then we have to remember that even after Biden came in, Biden kept much of the tariffs that Trump had raised. Then Trump talked about America First, and then he got rid of free trade and turned to protectionism, and President Biden came in and said, "The United States is back, so the liberal international order of the old days." But in terms of economy, trade, and trade, the United States has not come back. President Biden kept all of Trump's protectionist trade, tariff hikes, and these measures in place.
And President Trump is coming in and talking this time, and what we need to see here is that the United States is not the United States of the past. The United States, which used to insist on free trade in the past, is no longer at the forefront of free trade. Take a look at it now. Subsidies and tariffs have nothing to do with free trade. It's definitely a return to protectionism and that's why we need to be very aware that we need to adapt to this changed environment. I think we should understand clearly that Trump is not a phenomenon that just passes by, and that this will be a continuous environment for our lives and survival in the future. I think it will have to change in many ways. What do our companies do then? That's what Trump is talking about now.
If you want to sell goods to the United States in the future, just come to the United States and produce it. If you come to the United States and produce, we will lower the corporate tax. The current corporate tax is 21%, down from 35% for Trump last time. They say they'll drop it to 15% this time. That's what happens when it's produced domestically. It's produced outside of the country and brought to the United States? That's what I'll do with the tariffs. 100% is good and 200% is good, so if you want to sell things to the U.S., come to the U.S. and produce them, this is Trump's firm position. Then, our companies will have to think deeply about how we can take advantage of this. The government and businesses all together.
[Anchor]
With former President Trump declaring his victory in the presidential election, our presidential office said it will build a perfect South Korea-U.S. security posture with the new U.S. administration to make the South Korea-U.S. alliance stronger and more vital.
[Anchor]
He said he expected the opportunity for communication between Yoon Suk Yeol's president and the president-elect to be prepared soon. Reporter Kang Min-kyung reports.
[Reporter]
The halfway point of Yoon's presidency was that the president's office promised to turn the South Korea-U.S. alliance into a stronger and more energetic "global comprehensive strategic alliance." Even if a new administration is established in the U.S. early next year, he vowed to maintain a strong security posture and expand the relationship between the two countries to economic and high-tech cooperation.
[Kim Tae-hyo / 1st Deputy Director of the National Security Office: The government will establish a perfect security posture between South Korea and the U.S. so that our security does not falter at all. ]
The presidential office explained that our government has been in close policy consultations with the Republican Party of the United States, the Democratic Party, and presidential candidates from both sides. President Yoon Suk Yeol has announced that he will soon have the opportunity to communicate with the new president-elect of the United States. The president's office analyzed that a large number of North Korean troops sent to Russia are believed to have moved to the western front, but they have not begun full-fledged fighting. Regarding whether to send a monitoring team to Ukraine, he maintained that it seems necessary to analyze weapons and prisoners used by the North Korean military, although it is not in the final stage. He also stressed that the National Assembly's consent is not necessary as the opposition party claims, as it is not sending troops from the South Korean military. The presidential office also cited the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system, increasing deterrence against North Korea, and nuclear power plant and defense sales diplomacy as the biggest diplomatic and security achievements of the Yoon Suk Yeol government in the first half of the state administration.
[Kim Tae-hyo / 1st Deputy Director of the National Security Office: We will connect our strategic command and the U.S. strategic command to integrate nuclear and conventional capabilities between South Korea and the U.S. to neutralize North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations. ]
However, it was analyzed that the international situation in the second half of the Yoon Suk Yeol government, especially the equation for North Korea, will be more complicated due to the prolonged war in Ukraine and a series of conflicts in the Middle East. As a result, the presidential office plans to start discussing mid- to long-term North Korea policy as soon as the new U.S. administration takes office in January next year. I'm Kang Min-kyung of YTN.
[Anchor]
As former President Trump is likely to be elected, I wonder what former President Trump's North Korea strategy is. Can you point it out again?
President Trump has talked about his thoughts several times regarding North Korea, so we already know a lot about it. Trump has never shown such an attitude of avoiding dialogue with North Korea for the first time, and he can always just talk. He has been active in dialogue during the previous administration. Another characteristic feature is that Chairman Kim Jong-un has been evaluated as a smart person who inherited the country at a young age, but that doesn't sound like a bad expression.
And the most important element of both South Korea and the U.S. policy toward North Korea is denuclearization, and President Trump has talked about this even after he left office, so I think President Trump's thoughts are a little flexible in this area. I'll remember that.Ma said that at the Republican National Convention last August, President Trump said that. I said that I have to get along with people from countries with a lot of nuclear weapons. And a couple of days later, when I went to the Michigan campaign, I said that to Kim Jong-un. Didn't you make a lot of nukes? Let's stop making them and go watch baseball with me. I said this there.
Looking at that, I think President Trump's idea of denuclearizing North Korea may be a little far from the complete irreversible denuclearization that we have been talking about. So I think that's the basis of what President Trump can have about North Korea. So, President Trump believes that there is a high possibility of just starting dialogue with North Korea as soon as he takes office, and if he seems to go a little further, I think the possibility of meeting at a high level will come out just a matter of time.
[Anchor]
I'll tell you the news that just came in first and then we'll talk about it again. President Yoon Suk Yeol sent a congratulatory message to former President Donald Trump. I sent it through an SNS message. Let's take a look at the content. Congratulations to
Under strong leadership, the future of the Korea-U.S. alliance and the United States will shine brighter. Let's continue to cooperate closely, President Yoon Suk Yeol left a congratulatory message. We look forward to working closely with the Korea-U.S. alliance in the future. A congratulatory message from the president came out.
We are also analyzing that former President Trump is certain to be elected.
Looking at it earlier, the British prime minister and even Ukrainian President Zelenskyy have already sent a congratulatory message about Trump before us. So, it's too early for President Yoon to send a message now, so I don't think there's any need to see it like this, and if it's this much, it's already clear that he's elected, so it's right to send a message quickly.
[Anchor]
If candidate Trump takes office, he will also meet with President Yoon Suk Yeol someday. How do you think the two people will talk about their policy or personal orientation?
Communication between the two presidents could soon take place. Traditionally, it has been customary to communicate on the phone first after the election of a new president of the United States, and it has been customary to communicate on the phone before taking office, and after the inauguration ceremony, President Trump's opportunity to come out to East Asia seems to be rarely seen in the first half of next year, so I think there is a high possibility that the president of Yoon Suk Yeol will first communicate over the phone and then face-to-face visit to the U.S. will take place early.
As we communicate in that way, we will have extensive discussions on various issues of alliance, economic cooperation between the two countries, science and technology cooperation, and how to do well in the global alliance. And since Korea and the U.S. have maintained a good relationship as allies for the past 70 years, we should all look forward to doing well this time.
[Anchor]
Along with this presidential election, there was another federal parliamentary election, right? The Republican Party, which includes former President Trump, has regained the Senate majority in four years. What did you think of this part?
It's been predicted that the Republican Party will take back the Senate this time, but it's been coming out all the time. So it makes a lot of sense for Republicans to take the Senate. It is a very encouraging phenomenon for the ruling president to have a majority in foreign affairs, and then confirmation hearings, in which new people are appointed. Democrats, for example, have the Senate. Then President Trump will have to think a lot about appointing a minister. However, if the Republican Party catches this, it is a big advantage that I can appoint personnel and do as I want. One thing that is interesting now is who will take the House of Representatives. If you look at it now, it has a very extreme advantage that Republicans have six seats ahead of the House of Representatives. If the Republican Party maintains its dominance this time, it means that Republicans will take both the White House and the House of Representatives.
If this happens, we can just call it a red wave, a red wave, and a red wave. If this happens, I think this will be a tectonic change in the political landscape of the United States. I think it's something we have to pay close attention to how much influence it will have on the politics of the United States going forward. Trump's America First is definitely what I said earlier.Ma is a phenomenon that clearly draws a stroke from the past order of the past 70, 80 years, and it's great that President Trump, who won both the House and the White House, leads this, so it's something to think about a lot about and I think it's something to do a lot of research.
[Anchor]
I see. I talked about the U.S. presidential election with Cho Byung-je, a visiting chair professor at Kyungnam National University's Institute for Far East Studies. Thank you for your comment.
※ 'Your report becomes news'
[Kakao Talk] YTN Search and Add Channel
[Phone] 02-398-8585
[Mail] social@ytn. co. kr
[Copyright holder (c) YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution and use of AI data prohibited]
■ Starring: Cho Byung-je, professor of the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special Report-2024 U.S. Choice] when quoting.
[Anchor]
Then, let's talk to an expert about the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
We are joined by Professor Cho Byung-je of Kyungnam University's Far East Studies Institute. Please come in.
In fact, until the last minute, it was analyzed that it was a chaotic situation in fog, and even on the day of the election, there were many analyses that predicted Harris' winning rate higher. But how did it come to this? Did you expect that?
If you completely expected Trump to win from the beginning, that would be a little too much. Not long ago, there was a poll on whether President Biden was running the state administration properly or not, and only 28% answered that the country is going in a normal direction. So that's what American experts said. In this situation, it is unimaginable that the ruling party will be back in power, many people said. So if you look at the soil as a whole, it seems that there is a pretty high chance that Trump will be elected again because the sentiment of Americans is now more pessimistic than optimistic and then negative than positive, so you can see that there was soil. However, one thing that was a little uncertain was that Trump was originally like that, right? There are quite a few people who think that this style is not suitable for the president in a way because they talk rough and talk recklessly, so it will work negatively to some extent. So there's definitely soil, but I think it was a little uncertain how the American people would judge this style part.
[Anchor]
Looking at the competing states now, it has been confirmed that Trump took Pennsylvania, which is considered the most important competing state, early on. I also took North Carolina and Georgia. What do you think voters made this choice because Trump did well in this situation?
I think it was an economic issue. I told you earlier.I think the biggest reason was that voters did not realize that the economic situation was improving, as only 28% of people saw the country going right now. Pennsylvania was the key, followed by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan. This area called the three Rust Belt near the Great Lakes was originally a so-called Democratic stronghold that supported the Democratic Party in four presidential elections since 2000. And then in 2016, we went back to Trump. The reason why I went back then was also the economic problem.
So I left it to Trump and then I met COVID-19, so Trump is not getting this right. That's how we moved on to Biden in the 2020 presidential election. But when I went to Biden, the economic problem didn't improve at all, I can't do this. I think that the economy is Trump, and I think Pennsylvania is also working this time, and I think the impact is quite significant on Michigan and Wisconsin, so even if it doesn't work there, there will be a very narrow gap.
[Anchor]
Of course, the vote count is not complete, but all seven competing states now show former President Trump leading. Now, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are all led by former President Trump. What do you think of this part?
So if you look at it like this, I thought it would be too close to call it a competitive stock, but wouldn't that be the basis for the continuous public opinion poll? But the results of the poll were wrong back in 2016. Then you said you'd win by a big margin in 2020, but Biden almost narrowly won a little bit, didn't you? And he said it would be too close this time, but if you look at the current situation, Trump is far more dominant than too close, so why Trump won and the overall economic situation was not good is a big reason, but I wonder if pollsters have tried hard to fix the problems of this poll since 2016 and 2020, but they haven't yet.
There may be things like Shy Trump and Hidden Harris that we're talking about a lot in the media, but more than that, I think there may be some prejudice already underlying the pollster itself. What I mean is that the organizations that have been leading the polls were the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN. But these media organizations are actually on the side of the Democratic Party in the American presidential election, already. And among the leading media organizations we know very well, Fox News was the only one standing on Trump's side. So I'm trying a lot to do the polls that come out here objectively, but I wondered if there was a little prejudice that started with the sample survey, which is inevitable.
[Anchor]
Even so, I can't help but point out the prejudice you just mentioned that there is a problem with the polling technique because it is not just one or two mistakes and it keeps getting wrong in the three presidential elections. What specifically is the prejudice that the polling agency has?
For example, there's something like this. I don't know if something similar can be applied to Korea, but if you think you have a little sympathy with a call from a certain media or a certain polling agency, you'll get that call and respond quickly. But if that's not the case, I'm a big fan of Trump, but there's a pretty good chance I won't answer because CNN asked me.
[Anchor]
CNN does a lot of reporting criticizing Trump.
So, you can see it already.Ma has been talking about influential media from the past in the United States, for example, the New York Times.The Washington Post and CNN have been on the side of the Democratic Party during the presidential election. So, in Trump's view, there's this tendency to belong to a kind of media establishment. So it seems that the way voters see the media may be a little different from what they see outside of us. So I think that's what I'm talking about, maybe that's the kind of prejudice that's already underlying, and pollsters have tried so hard to get rid of it. I got it wrong in 2016, I got it wrong in 2020, but I got it wrong twice, so it's not fair, is it?
In order to fix that, I heard that the previous phone inquiries were made by e-mail and text this time, and then the method of weighting was changed, and I tried to correct it variously. Looking at the appearance this time, there are definitely some parts that are very difficult to correct technically. So I thought maybe there was a prejudice that was difficult to resolve from sampling. [Anchor] I also had this thought. I also thought that opinion polls might affect voting. Isn't there a period of prohibition in Korea that prevents new polls from being published a few days before the election? By the way, the U.S. releases new polls even on the day of the presidential election. So, it is analyzed that Harris will narrowly win at the last minute, so I think Trump supporters gathered at the last minute, what do you think?
That's what I thought. If you've seen the process, you'll know.There were also quite a few variations in the results of a poll on Ma's approval rating. Some of the things from the same media organization came out saying that Trump leads the nationwide, and then a little later, Harris leads, so there were other phenomena that confused people's public opinion. For example, isn't there a so-called betting site that received special attention during this presidential election process? At the end of the election, Trump suddenly rose to the upper hand in October, and there were rumors that operational forces worked on it, so I thought that the results of the poll, the announcement, and the release itself might be to influence the trend of election voting, as the anchor said earlier. Conservative media and conservative polling institutions have also come up with a lot. Although it didn't get to us directly. There are some doubts that all of those things were intended to influence votes.
[Anchor]
We've talked about the polls and what about the exit polls? I think the exit poll was a little different from the results.
I think exit polls may have the same bias. Don't you have an exit poll inquiry when we go to the election day and come out? Then, there are many times when they avoid it, so there can be no accurate investigation. And what can be different from polling is that the attitude you took during the polls and the attitude you take at the polls can be different, so I don't think the margin of error comes out in vain. You have to understand and acknowledge that.
[Anchor]
CNN continues to analyze the U.S. presidential election. We'll try to connect it live. Let's listen to it.
[Interview]
Donald Trump is doing better in almost every region. If you look at the electorate, that's the case.
[Anchor]
There were Democratic supporters who shot Reagan in the past. It was in the Midwest. It took a lot of time to bring those voters back. That's what happened once again. And the perception that the Democratic Party is the kind of party that supports whatever immigrants come in has not worked well. In the case of Latino voters, if you look at it this time, it can be seen that the negative impact on that area worked.
[Interview]
If you look at the bigger picture, it's President Trump who actually lost the election four years ago. And they even got a guilty verdict. And historically, it's shocking that such a president is elected again.
[Anchor]
That's right. But I think this election should be viewed as a vote for Democrats rather than a referendum on Trump. The vote in 2020 was for Trump. Voters were angry about the COVID-19 outbreak and gave an evaluation of Trump's handling of the pandemic. But in the case of the Democratic Party, it has failed to root out such a coalition of voters that supported them in 2020. In other words, that coalition of voters that supported Democrats in 2020 has been dissolved. When Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, that's the same thing. We can't create a coalition of voters that can win just by pointing out some cultural issues and Trump's xenophobia and all sorts of issues. Voters have shown that he can't win just by saying he's bad. At the end of the day, the economy was the problem.
[Anchor]
I think those parts also appeared in the exit poll. And the polls were quite wrong. And when you look at the polls, the percentage of people who actually think the country is going in the right direction is quite low. This itself was a favorable environment for Trump.
[Anchor]
There's a result like this. Eighty percent of voters who supported Trump thought the economy was bad during Trump, but it was bad during Biden. So we're actually talking about the economy a day after the election.In fact, just a few days ago, Ma said that abortion and immigration were important, and the Democratic Party also emphasized that. In fact, what voters really cared about was the economic problem.
[Anchor]
The Senate and House elections are still fully counted.Ma is in a situation where you can clearly see which one is in a situation to celebrate. Candidate Trump had just appeared at such a celebration and made a speech.
[Anchor]
I listened to CNN's analysis of the U.S. presidential election, and since it's a progressive broadcast, it's very shocking that Trump is doing so well, and I felt embarrassed saying this. In the end, I was doing the same analysis as the professor's, saying it was the economy.
I think it would have been visible. There are several topics that have been central to this presidential election, one of which was the issue of abortion rights and the right to terminate pregnancy, and the other was immigration. I lost a lot of votes because the Democratic Party was very poor in terms of immigration, and Trump was a bit wrong on the abortion rights issue. So I lost a lot of votes because of that and another issue was the economic problem. Trump continued to attack this very strongly and there was absolutely nothing for the Biden administration to put forward in that area, so Harris said, "I'm going to do well in the future, I'm going to push for an economic policy centered on the middle class." I've said this, but I don't think I've been able to comfort the public sentiment that's already disappointed.
[Anchor]
That's what happened to abortion rights. At the end of the day, Harris' camp also ran such a campaign, asking her to vote without her husband's knowledge. Didn't she sway the votes of female voters that much?
That's why abortion rights have been a concern for women, so I'm sure Trump has lost a lot because of that. And then Hidden Harris, who appeared at the end of October, so let's go and vote without her husband's knowledge, is this the end of October? At that time, Julia Roberts, a famous American actor, came out and put it in the advertisement, and the word became popular. I think I used the word Hidden Harris as a response to Shy Trump while watching this, but my personality seems to be a little different. Shy Trump was a term that he discovered while explaining what's wrong with this after pollsters failed in 2016 and 2020.
So, it was a term used to explain the phenomenon that was already there, and then hidden Harris is a term that inspires a little bit of expectation rather than explaining the phenomenon, so the personality is a little different. So the term Hidden Harris came out, but I think it's very hard to say how much it would have affected it. I think this is definitely a different story.
[Anchor]
Usually, there was a red mirage in which the Republican Party was ahead at the beginning of the vote count and the Democratic Party turned into the upper hand as it went back, but this time, it's unlikely, right?
If you look at the early voting tickets rather than absentee voting, most of the early voting places are counted according to the regulations of almost all states, but the announcement was supposed to be made in time for the end of the vote. So, early voting results appear late on the day the voting ends, and in the past, the rate of early voting was much higher for the Democratic Party. As a result, the votes that went to the Democratic Party of Korea were concentrated later on in the vote count, so there seems to have been a phenomenon in which the Democratic support vote rises later on. This time, Trump should actively vote in advance for Republicans, and we should do this well to win. I emphasized a lot. So this time, the ratio of early voting was quite high, and the survey showed that both Republicans and Democrats did it together. So, I think the early voting will be concentrated later and the Democratic Party's votes will rise sharply this year.
[Anchor]
Even though more than 83 million people participated in the early voting, it will not interfere with this trend.
So 83 million people voted in advance, but this is much less than what appeared in 2020. In 2020, nearly 120 million people voted in advance because of COVID-19. And in 2016, it was about 45 million. Even if it's released a lot this time, it's hard to say that it's only halfway between 2016 and 2020. Whether the votes cast in the early voting are favorable to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, I think this is a conclusion that can be made after analyzing all the results of the vote this time.
[Anchor]
As we continue to be counted on the U.S. presidential election all day long, we're paying so much attention to it even though it's not our country's presidential election. Where is the reason?
Since the United States is still a world superpower, it has been in an alliance with us for the past 70 or 80 years, and the question of which president of the United States comes in affects the overall world situation, including the Korea-U.S. relationship. It's very natural. On top of that, this election has a special aspect.
In my view, this election is at an inflection point that marks a milestone in the liberal international order that the U.S. has led for the past 70 to 80 years, and this is a turning point into Trump's political philosophy called American First, so depending on who will be this time, it will be decided whether the U.S. will continue to lead the catchphrase of the liberal international order or fold it here and turn to American First now, so it is a matter of utmost concern for us and I think it is natural for the media to show such interest.
[Anchor]
Not only Korea, but also many countries are paying keen attention to the U.S. presidential election. In particular, China and Japan cannot be left out. Now, Japan is also watching the results with such keen attention over the impact of the U.S. presidential election results on its country.
[Anchor]
That's right. In fact, with former President Trump's election becoming certain, the Japanese government is emphasizing that it will continue to cooperate with the next U.S. administration. I'll connect you to a local correspondent in Japan. Correspondent Kim Se-ho!
[Reporter]
It's Tokyo.
[Anchor]
How does Japan react to the results of the U.S. presidential election?
[Reporter]
The Japanese government said it is paying keen attention to the development and impact of the U.S. presidential election. Japanese government spokesman Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi made the comments at a regular briefing today and stressed that the U.S.-Japan alliance is the backbone of Japan's diplomacy and security. He added that it remains the basis for peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the international community. He also said that the security environment surrounding South Korea, the U.S. and Japan is getting more severe, and that there is no change in continuing to cooperate closely to respond. It said no decision had yet been made on the need for talks between high-level officials if the president-elect is confirmed. However, he explained that he wants to build strong trust and cooperation with the next U.S. regime to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance.
[Anchor]
Above all, the Japanese government is paying close attention to the impact on diplomacy, security, and trade, right?
[Reporter]
Japanese media are focusing on the atmosphere of former President Trump's camp in major competition states and breaking news that the victory is almost tilted. At the same time, they are also gradually analyzing the impact on security and the economy. If former President Trump is elected, there is a possibility that he will try to reduce the U.S. role in the Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system. In particular, former President Trump, like Korea, is likely to pressure Japan to increase defense costs. In the economic sector, former President Trump is determined to impose tariffs of up to 20% on products imported from Japan and other countries. Because of this, exports of major export items such as automobiles could also be directly hit. It also strongly criticizes Japan's weak yen, saying it is a disaster for U.S. companies, and it is expected to affect Japan's interest rate policy. The Japanese government is expected to work hard to come up with countermeasures over the impact of the U.S. presidential election on Japan's major policies as a whole. I'm Kim Se-ho of YTN in Tokyo.
[Anchor]
Chinese authorities have refrained from making official comments on the election, saying it is the U.S. internal affairs. [Anchor] But there have been various reactions in the private sector that predict Trump's election in advance. Let's go to China this time. Correspondent Kang Jeong-gyu.
[Reporter]
It's Beijing.
[Anchor]
First of all, please convey the official position of the Chinese authorities.
[Reporter]
At a briefing by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs this afternoon, questions were raised about the possibility of Trump's election. The answer is that this election is the internal affairs of the United States, and we can't answer hypothetical questions. Regarding the impact on China's foreign policy in the future, he gave a theoretical answer that he would consistently pursue peace and coexistence. The official position of the authorities is that no matter who becomes it, the U.S. strategy to check and pressure China will not change. However, the results have been so keen that the meeting to determine the size of the "Chinese version of the supplementary budget" has been postponed until after the U.S. presidential election. As Trump's less predictable election is likely, a little more active fiscal injection is expected.
[Anchor]
On the other hand, there was a very shrewd response from the private sector?
[Reporter]
Shares of IT companies listed on China's Shenzhen Exchange jumped to a cap of 10%. In Chinese, the name of the company is so-called "Trump meme stock," which means Trump's victory. On the other hand, thermos companies similar to Harris's range plunged 7.14%. On Chinese social media, the hashtag "U.S. presidential election" garnered 16 billion views and more than 4 million comments. It is said that an online vote involving more than 30,000 people was also conducted, with 74% predicting former President Trump's victory. However, certain candidate support posts are deleted due to censorship and cannot be found now. I'm Kang Jeonggyu of YTN in Beijing.
[Anchor]
I connected a Japanese and Chinese correspondent and heard the local response. There is a reason why we have looked at how we are responding abroad like this. Wasn't Korea also paying great attention to President Trump's remarks on the issue of defense cost sharing? You're talking about Korea as a rich country and a machine with money, what do you think about your future?
There were two topics that Trump has been talking about regarding Korea. One was the issue of defense cost sharing that you just talked about and the other was the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, but President Trump has shown very persistent interest in defense cost sharing. During Trump's presidency, he suddenly told us in 2017 to increase it by five times and pay $5 billion, but that was a good compromise then. Even after I left office, I didn't forget this $5 billion number, and I kept talking about it every time I met people. And we continued to complain that Korea lived well and did not treat the U.S. Forces in Korea properly, and not long ago, after we concluded the defense cost sharing, we talked about that. If I were you, I would have just received 10 billion dollars, and I've been showing very persistent interest in Korea because I talked about it again like this.
However, we need to see how this will affect us in the future. Trump didn't hesitate to make a promise and break it when he felt it was against us. If you look at it in the long run, the Climate Change Convention, it just left. Then the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP, didn't do it. I quit everything I didn't like on the spot. Didn't the Korea-US FTA also revised it by turning on even when Trump entered the country? So, I think there is a high possibility that there will be more talks in the future about this defense cost share.
[Anchor]
If it's 100 dollars a year, it's about 13.6 trillion won, so isn't it about nine times the amount we've already agreed to pay in 2026? What should we do if you really ask for this?
I'm sure Trump knows it well. There was a story like that while Trump was in office. There was a saying that Trump presented a formula that said he would receive 50% plus the cost of stationing troops abroad. It hasn't been done since Trump, but Trump's aides later said that Trump talked about it, so Trump sees this defense cost-sharing issue in terms of a little transactional. And you'll know a little bit. You probably know that what we're asking for is not normal, it's a fairly inflated amount, so the key will be how we can keep Trump's position alive and respond to the right extent, but in our view, Trump, it's really a sham, but Trump's remarks like that work for Trump's supporters in the United States.
Since Trump is a self-centered person and a very patriotic person, I think we need a strategy to help him live up to his self-esteem and show how much Korea is doing to defend itself.
[Anchor]
I think ordinary private companies will also be worried. Former President Trump talked a lot about tariffs at the end of the campaign. Of course, during his term in office, the trade war with China was quite severe. As a result, our companies were also damaged. How do you think we should solve the tariff problem of our companies in the future?
Even when Trump was in office last time, Korean companies suffered a lot. And then we have to remember that even after Biden came in, Biden kept much of the tariffs that Trump had raised. Then Trump talked about America First, and then he got rid of free trade and turned to protectionism, and President Biden came in and said, "The United States is back, so the liberal international order of the old days." But in terms of economy, trade, and trade, the United States has not come back. President Biden kept all of Trump's protectionist trade, tariff hikes, and these measures in place.
And President Trump is coming in and talking this time, and what we need to see here is that the United States is not the United States of the past. The United States, which used to insist on free trade in the past, is no longer at the forefront of free trade. Take a look at it now. Subsidies and tariffs have nothing to do with free trade. It's definitely a return to protectionism and that's why we need to be very aware that we need to adapt to this changed environment. I think we should understand clearly that Trump is not a phenomenon that just passes by, and that this will be a continuous environment for our lives and survival in the future. I think it will have to change in many ways. What do our companies do then? That's what Trump is talking about now.
If you want to sell goods to the United States in the future, just come to the United States and produce it. If you come to the United States and produce, we will lower the corporate tax. The current corporate tax is 21%, down from 35% for Trump last time. They say they'll drop it to 15% this time. That's what happens when it's produced domestically. It's produced outside of the country and brought to the United States? That's what I'll do with the tariffs. 100% is good and 200% is good, so if you want to sell things to the U.S., come to the U.S. and produce them, this is Trump's firm position. Then, our companies will have to think deeply about how we can take advantage of this. The government and businesses all together.
[Anchor]
With former President Trump declaring his victory in the presidential election, our presidential office said it will build a perfect South Korea-U.S. security posture with the new U.S. administration to make the South Korea-U.S. alliance stronger and more vital.
[Anchor]
He said he expected the opportunity for communication between Yoon Suk Yeol's president and the president-elect to be prepared soon. Reporter Kang Min-kyung reports.
[Reporter]
The halfway point of Yoon's presidency was that the president's office promised to turn the South Korea-U.S. alliance into a stronger and more energetic "global comprehensive strategic alliance." Even if a new administration is established in the U.S. early next year, he vowed to maintain a strong security posture and expand the relationship between the two countries to economic and high-tech cooperation.
[Kim Tae-hyo / 1st Deputy Director of the National Security Office: The government will establish a perfect security posture between South Korea and the U.S. so that our security does not falter at all. ]
The presidential office explained that our government has been in close policy consultations with the Republican Party of the United States, the Democratic Party, and presidential candidates from both sides. President Yoon Suk Yeol has announced that he will soon have the opportunity to communicate with the new president-elect of the United States. The president's office analyzed that a large number of North Korean troops sent to Russia are believed to have moved to the western front, but they have not begun full-fledged fighting. Regarding whether to send a monitoring team to Ukraine, he maintained that it seems necessary to analyze weapons and prisoners used by the North Korean military, although it is not in the final stage. He also stressed that the National Assembly's consent is not necessary as the opposition party claims, as it is not sending troops from the South Korean military. The presidential office also cited the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system, increasing deterrence against North Korea, and nuclear power plant and defense sales diplomacy as the biggest diplomatic and security achievements of the Yoon Suk Yeol government in the first half of the state administration.
[Kim Tae-hyo / 1st Deputy Director of the National Security Office: We will connect our strategic command and the U.S. strategic command to integrate nuclear and conventional capabilities between South Korea and the U.S. to neutralize North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations. ]
However, it was analyzed that the international situation in the second half of the Yoon Suk Yeol government, especially the equation for North Korea, will be more complicated due to the prolonged war in Ukraine and a series of conflicts in the Middle East. As a result, the presidential office plans to start discussing mid- to long-term North Korea policy as soon as the new U.S. administration takes office in January next year. I'm Kang Min-kyung of YTN.
[Anchor]
As former President Trump is likely to be elected, I wonder what former President Trump's North Korea strategy is. Can you point it out again?
President Trump has talked about his thoughts several times regarding North Korea, so we already know a lot about it. Trump has never shown such an attitude of avoiding dialogue with North Korea for the first time, and he can always just talk. He has been active in dialogue during the previous administration. Another characteristic feature is that Chairman Kim Jong-un has been evaluated as a smart person who inherited the country at a young age, but that doesn't sound like a bad expression.
And the most important element of both South Korea and the U.S. policy toward North Korea is denuclearization, and President Trump has talked about this even after he left office, so I think President Trump's thoughts are a little flexible in this area. I'll remember that.Ma said that at the Republican National Convention last August, President Trump said that. I said that I have to get along with people from countries with a lot of nuclear weapons. And a couple of days later, when I went to the Michigan campaign, I said that to Kim Jong-un. Didn't you make a lot of nukes? Let's stop making them and go watch baseball with me. I said this there.
Looking at that, I think President Trump's idea of denuclearizing North Korea may be a little far from the complete irreversible denuclearization that we have been talking about. So I think that's the basis of what President Trump can have about North Korea. So, President Trump believes that there is a high possibility of just starting dialogue with North Korea as soon as he takes office, and if he seems to go a little further, I think the possibility of meeting at a high level will come out just a matter of time.
[Anchor]
I'll tell you the news that just came in first and then we'll talk about it again. President Yoon Suk Yeol sent a congratulatory message to former President Donald Trump. I sent it through an SNS message. Let's take a look at the content. Congratulations to
Under strong leadership, the future of the Korea-U.S. alliance and the United States will shine brighter. Let's continue to cooperate closely, President Yoon Suk Yeol left a congratulatory message. We look forward to working closely with the Korea-U.S. alliance in the future. A congratulatory message from the president came out.
We are also analyzing that former President Trump is certain to be elected.
Looking at it earlier, the British prime minister and even Ukrainian President Zelenskyy have already sent a congratulatory message about Trump before us. So, it's too early for President Yoon to send a message now, so I don't think there's any need to see it like this, and if it's this much, it's already clear that he's elected, so it's right to send a message quickly.
[Anchor]
If candidate Trump takes office, he will also meet with President Yoon Suk Yeol someday. How do you think the two people will talk about their policy or personal orientation?
Communication between the two presidents could soon take place. Traditionally, it has been customary to communicate on the phone first after the election of a new president of the United States, and it has been customary to communicate on the phone before taking office, and after the inauguration ceremony, President Trump's opportunity to come out to East Asia seems to be rarely seen in the first half of next year, so I think there is a high possibility that the president of Yoon Suk Yeol will first communicate over the phone and then face-to-face visit to the U.S. will take place early.
As we communicate in that way, we will have extensive discussions on various issues of alliance, economic cooperation between the two countries, science and technology cooperation, and how to do well in the global alliance. And since Korea and the U.S. have maintained a good relationship as allies for the past 70 years, we should all look forward to doing well this time.
[Anchor]
Along with this presidential election, there was another federal parliamentary election, right? The Republican Party, which includes former President Trump, has regained the Senate majority in four years. What did you think of this part?
It's been predicted that the Republican Party will take back the Senate this time, but it's been coming out all the time. So it makes a lot of sense for Republicans to take the Senate. It is a very encouraging phenomenon for the ruling president to have a majority in foreign affairs, and then confirmation hearings, in which new people are appointed. Democrats, for example, have the Senate. Then President Trump will have to think a lot about appointing a minister. However, if the Republican Party catches this, it is a big advantage that I can appoint personnel and do as I want. One thing that is interesting now is who will take the House of Representatives. If you look at it now, it has a very extreme advantage that Republicans have six seats ahead of the House of Representatives. If the Republican Party maintains its dominance this time, it means that Republicans will take both the White House and the House of Representatives.
If this happens, we can just call it a red wave, a red wave, and a red wave. If this happens, I think this will be a tectonic change in the political landscape of the United States. I think it's something we have to pay close attention to how much influence it will have on the politics of the United States going forward. Trump's America First is definitely what I said earlier.Ma is a phenomenon that clearly draws a stroke from the past order of the past 70, 80 years, and it's great that President Trump, who won both the House and the White House, leads this, so it's something to think about a lot about and I think it's something to do a lot of research.
[Anchor]
I see. I talked about the U.S. presidential election with Cho Byung-je, a visiting chair professor at Kyungnam National University's Institute for Far East Studies. Thank you for your comment.
※ 'Your report becomes news'
[Kakao Talk] YTN Search and Add Channel
[Phone] 02-398-8585
[Mail] social@ytn. co. kr
[Copyright holder (c) YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution and use of AI data prohibited]
