■ Hosted by: Anchor Moon Sung-gyu, Anchor Yoo Da-won
■ Starring: Ban Gil-ju, Director of the Korea Institute for International Relations, Chair Researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification Cho Han-beom
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special Adviser - 47th U.S. President Trump Elected] when quoting.
[Anchor]
As former President Trump regained his position as the owner of the White House in four years, attention is being paid to what "Trump Season 2" will look like. That's right. This time, we will talk with Ban Gil-ju, head of the International Organization Center at the Ilmin Institute for International Relations at Korea University, and Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Institute for Unification. Welcome, two of you. Trump was virtually elected, outpacing Harris in the battleground. There are areas where votes are still being counted.Ma was looking forward to the extra time, but I think it ended with a cold game. I feel like that, but honestly, I want to hear from you. Did you expect that?
[Cho Han-beom]
I didn't expect that. Looking at the flow, I think we didn't see the trees after looking at the leaves. I don't think I saw the forest after seeing the trees. Because in fact, one of the most disqualifying candidates in history is former President Trump. So if it's normal, Harris has a pretty good advantage. Because Harris is a former prosecutor and former President Trump is a suspect. And Harris has a lot of advantages right now. It's a woman, followed by six white people in the United States and four people of color. It's almost 19-20% Hispanic, 14-15% Black, and the rest are Asian. Vice President Harris has everything. My mom is from India, so my dad is from Asia, and my dad is from Jamaica, so I have both black and Hispanic. And half of the U.S. population is women. On top of that, former President Trump... then Vice President Harris should have an advantage in many ways. So what I'm telling you about the forest is that the American people were already determined in their minds. What is it, a two-pronged road. One is a world of great anxiety, a world of uncertainty. Russia-U.S. war, then Hamas-Israel, then the Middle East conflict, then North Korea's nuclear development, and the global security order are rapidly falling into chaos. However, the United Nations or related countries cannot control it. It's an era of uncertainty. The U.S. economy is also good as an indicator, but it's not as happy as it used to be because of inflation. That's why I'm depressed. There are two anxieties both domestically and abroad. When it's this unstable, the conservatorship leans to the right. That's why Europe is also facing a wind of rightward swing. So is Netanyahu. Then France, Lupen, then the Italian prime minister, is a descendant of Muslims. At times like this, Putin is strong. People like Xi Jinping, Erdogan. So, you want strong, strong leadership even if you're rough. Or American values, morality, and then international order, even though it's the United States. This is Harris. I think it's going back and forth between these. Then in the end, it's okay to be rough in the era of uncertainty, I think I went like this, Strongman, who can protect me. But it didn't appear in the votes.
[Anchor]
In fact, Republican support was strong, and Trump was ahead in all seven competing states, but in fact, he was 5 million votes ahead of the total number of votes. What do you analyze as the overwhelming winning factor?
[Half note]
It can be said that the prediction failed for now, but in terms of what the U.S. wanted, a strong leader appeared and needed a strong leader to revive the weakening economy and earn profits against foreign countries. I think that worked.
[Anchor]
Then it's America First after all.
[Half note]
That's right. In the end, it was a competition between value and material. Democracy or the interests of the United States or the interests of the United States. However, from the perspective of the American people, the United States is living in the weakest period in the post-war order in a way, so as the nation's robustness weakens, domestic prosperity is limited and its benefits are limited externally, so a strong leader is needed. And the one thing that the message was concise was that the people did not have to pay taxes. I'll put tariffs on it and feed you full with that money. That's what it was about. In fact, internationally, it is not very understandable and does not conform to the principles, but from the people's point of view, it can be said that it made me happy and lived well.
[Anchor]
That's what I'm saying. The public sentiment of the American people was very different from what we see outside the United States. The results are not easy for us to understand. In particular, what surprised us when the announcement was made this shocking or early was that the poll was so close. But when I opened the lid, it said Trump won right away, so how did you see the poll?
[Cho Han-beom]
That's why it's like this. His heart is Harris, but when he took the picture, his hand went to Trump. So no matter how much I look at it, no matter how much I try to give you a good score, the next president will hate it, but I'm not a model student. Rough, racist comments, then 90 charges. You are the suspect. If it's normal, you can't do politics. So, I describe it as Shy Trump, but I think 2016 and 20 years was a big Shy Trump effect. This time, there was a situation in which the indicators of the U.S. economy were good but the contents were bad after the Geroge-U.S. War. I think the voters kept thinking in this anxious situation. So it's not that the polls are completely wrong, it's that the voters are bad. All of a sudden, my mind... so it seems to me that President Trump's marketing, which is a slip of the tongue, is highly calculated. I say something unfavorable, but the message is that I'm rough, but I can do it. But this was not the case with Harris. It was the right way. I realized that about 10 days ago. That's when it started to get rough. But the reason why Hidden Harris has already ended the typhoon in a teacup is that she is the same person of color and sympathizes, but she is weak, so I don't think she can protect my interests. And then these people, who were the key to white women, were unfavorable to women, but Harris couldn't make up for the emptiness. So I don't care, but I lost my hand on the ballot. So there was a limit to the polls to catch this. If this happens, the poll will be criticized again, but in my opinion, the increase in uncertainty over the past four years, the poll did everything to catch Shy Trump this time, giving him weight, but he couldn't catch it. American polling techniques are very advanced. In my view, the global security crisis, the economic crisis, some frustration at home in the United States. For example, after World War II, the U.S. GDP was 40% of the world. It's less than 25% right now. So, in fact, President Trump is now saying to make the United States great, but through the international order, the United States has become stronger by protecting the international order. If you put down the burden of international order, do you become stronger? No. Re-entering as a powerhouse through customs policy? There are no historical cases.
[Anchor]
I see. Anyway, Cho said that the opinion polls have not been able to read what's deep inside, but what's interesting is that he got this right in betting markets such as polymarkets and cash. It came out differently from the poll and the betting market.
[Half note]
So what I told you was a competition between value and matter, but in fact, the market identifies matter first. What the market reacts to is to judge the material and the economy. So it should be said that they captured subtle movements. And the betting market wins and loses by betting, and the difference is huge. So I don't think he would have focused much on the poll. Basically, it is true that there was an error of 3.4% on average in competing stocks. However, in this case, it exceeded only 3.4%, and Trump won the national turnout, contrary to expectations, and almost swept the next competing stocks. Originally, there were three scenarios where we could tell the public when we would be able to win this time. The first one is to teach you today. That's when there's a big gap. And the second is the possibility that it will take up to 4 days or 2 weeks because it will be extremely close as originally expected. And then if the ratio is tied, it is likely to go until next year. Most of the time, I thought of the second scenario, but it came out today.
[Anchor]
It will take a few days, though.
[Half note]
However, if the gap is wide, it comes out on the same day, and the prediction is wrong enough to follow the first one, but instead, in the case of betting, the flow of money and where to go in the end are different calculations.
[Anchor]
I think I'll see a lot of betting markets from the next presidential election.
[Half note]
That's right. That happens, and in the case of predictive models, significant changes will be inevitable.
[Anchor]
In addition, I think the weakening of the concentration phenomenon of certain races this time may have lowered the accuracy of the poll.
[Cho Han-beom]
So the black hole that sucked this in chose money rather than value. I chose practicality over morality, so even though Harris says that, I think Harris is a big liability. In fact, we lost overwhelmingly to President Trump in an absolutely advantageous game. Analyzing the flow, there was Trump's time. When is that, it's due on July 21. President Biden will resign on July 21st. Biden's crushing defeat in his first TV debate at the end of June. Then Trump is on the rise. On top of that, they are ahead by 4% to 5% by getting shot in the ear and doing the Republican National Convention. But it turns around on July 21. President Biden resigns and now Harris' time comes. It was a frenzy, starting with memes. Then, it leads by 3% to 4%. Then, it's almost 10% upside down. This time is a month. But during this month, Harris' weaknesses emerged. Isn't it a cinderilla all of a sudden one day? Because it's the first, first, first, but there's never really been a scene where you break the window with a hammer so fiercely. But during that month, I had to show a strong performance to break this uncertainty, but I couldn't show it. So after about a month, Trump crossed and went up by 3-4%. And as we went on, we were leading by two to three percent, and when we thought it was tough, Vice President Harris started to get tough. Then, I turned upside down. So these flows actually, if you look closely at them, in the end, the flow of choosing to be practical in the era of uncertainty has not changed. What didn't catch the flow on Harris' side. So, I think the story would have been different if we went with In-Fighting from the beginning. I couldn't show that kind of strength. Friendly votes, so Hidden Harris and then racial characteristics. I'm not saying that because I lost because I failed to make these things, and then my sense of justice as a prosecutor, and that's what happened during Hillary. Of course Hillary has something to say. Since I got a lot more national votes. As expected, both candidates had problems in terms of quality to break the window. They're the same candidate, called Trump.
[Anchor]
In that sense, what would it have been like to have Michelle Obama come out, and if there were other candidates. I don't think that's appropriate.Ma, anyway, it was almost as if Trump had outlined it before the West's vote was over today.Ma said Trump declared victory quite early. The characteristic thing I saw there was that I talked a lot about Elon Musk. Do you think Elon Musk helped a lot?
[Half note]
In fact, I think Elon Musk has become the most prominent historical momentum in the history of the U.S. presidential election, except for the president-elect. Because I went all-in. Furthermore, all the celebrities in the United States were really all-in on their own in support of Harris. But there's something that Elon Musk is in line with in terms of identity with Trump. It's kind of like heretical atmosphere. Like this. But the other point is that this time, Elon Musk did not save companies through innovation by acting as a heresy of the economy, but it also worked on politics. Then why did you do that? What's the benefit? In the end, I think we should find the answer with the mindset of an entrepreneur. Elon Musk helped when the Biden administration was launched, but at that time, the Biden administration actually did not give Elon Musk a seat and did not listen. So, I went to anti-Biden and supported Trump, and Elon Musk said he would develop space through SpaceX and move it to Mars in the mid- to long-term, but there are a lot of regulations there. If you don't lift that regulation, you won't achieve that goal.
[Anchor]
You felt very frustrated in the Biden administration.
[Half note]
That's right. So if you become the chairman of the regulatory reform committee, you can solve everything.
[Anchor]
You're giving me a spectacular view, aren't you?
[Half note]
That's right, even though the minister may not even be considered as a minister, I think it is a way to become the chairman of the regulatory reform committee and lift all regulations that interfere with the business you want. In addition, in terms of electric vehicles, it is said that they will lose money due to tariffs, and it is highly likely that Trump will be considerate to prevent such a blow to that part. Also, from a regulatory perspective, what Elon Musk thinks is that electric vehicles are not the final state, but completely autonomous vehicles. For that to happen, a lot of other regulations need to be lifted. There is also something that can be developed through regulation. So if those two things are lifted through regulation, the Elon Musk-led company is really going through the roof. So, if Elon Musk sets up one as a winner and a profit as strong as Trump in this presidential election, it can be seen as Elon Musk.
[Anchor]
While announcing the victory, Trump also congratulated Vice President-elect JD Vance, who played as his running mate. Can you briefly point out the vice president-elect?
[Cho Han-beom]
I don't know if Vance will actually be disappointed, but he didn't contribute much. To the point where I'm worried it's X-Men, because I'm the same white guy now, and then I'm like a dirt spoon or whatever. Now, I refuse anyway. In that sense, Harris had a complementary effect on a seasoned black candidate, followed by a white candidate, but Vance actually made a lot of dangerous remarks during the election. But it doesn't matter what kind of person Vance is, he has the potential to become the next Harris. Because...
[Anchor]
You don't have honorifics?
[Cho Han-beom]
is not. There's no presence, but presence is shown from now on. Because President Trump is old. You look healthy now, but you can't come out next time anyway, number one. Then in office...
[Anchor]
For your information, Trump is 78 years old now.
[Cho Han-beom]
That's what I'm saying. There might be some health issues while in office, and that's why Harris went blind at first. Biden can't come out anyway, he won't come out, and if he has health problems, he will be Harris. But Harris couldn't show it. However, Vance doesn't seem to be a big deal now, and he didn't stand out during the election, but now President Trump can't come out again, so the next Republican candidate will have to stand out. I don't have much. But Vance is the vice president. Then it could be Vance's time, depending on what you do from now on. I'm sure Vance saw it. How Harris gets to the scenario of failure. So one of the hidden pictures is Vance. Trump's time is coming to an end anyway, no matter how spectacular it is. So depending on what opportunity the young Vance is taking, it didn't make much sense during the current election campaign, but maybe if you have staff around you, you're going to start building Vance.
[Anchor]
When I think about Biden back in the day, I remember that Biden tried very hard to eliminate Harris' presence. So he was going to be re-elected himself, so I think the question of what Harris did is that Biden actually made it like that. By the way, what do you think of what he's saying now?
[Half note]
Harris actually didn't get attention even though she was vice president, she didn't have a presence. However, President Biden chose the position like a successor, and in fact, he did something like a free rider. You mentioned Michelle Obama earlier, but in fact, it has been said for a long time that Michelle Obama is competitive. But Michelle Obama said for a long time that she wouldn't do politics, so she took out Harris without a card at all, and that's what I was most worried about. Wouldn't the absence of that presence appear the same when he or she becomes a candidate or presidential candidate? However, washing that concern was a very shiny effect, not just once, but two or three convention effects. So I even caught up with Trump up to 7%. So I thought I'd take it off, but there was a scene where I came back to being non-existent, and it was seen as super-close, but looking at the results now, the super-close appearance didn't last for months, but it was very short. That's why Shy Trump didn't respond to the polls and wasn't revealed. However, what Harris expected was a hidden Harris group, but even that white female group followed the same path as if they had been dropped because they did not lose during Hillary Clinton. From that point of view, the Democratic Party will take a considerable amount of time to recover from this in the future, as it disappoints the various supporters who supported him to win the election to protect democracy after serving as vice president without a presence and running for president without a presence.
[Anchor]
As you just told me, you said that the ultra-tightness was temporary and eventually the lack of presence continued. So if you could do more analysis of Vice President Harris' loss, how would you see it?
[Half note]
If you look at it in many ways, first of all, the Biden administration has the nature of a referee, what Trump won now. In fact, the economy is not completely bad, but there is inflation and prices, so it is judged that the economy has failed. However, Harris was not good at differentiating when she had to differentiate herself. As a vice president, he was in charge of the situation, so he became the subject of judgment. So there was one thing that led me to support Trump because I didn't differentiate myself, and the second one was that I had a short campaign period. Since he suddenly became a candidate, it can be said that he prepared two years for Trump in about four to five months, and actually four years. So it was difficult, and thirdly, President Biden's last-minute slip of the tongue also had a negative impact. In other words, Trump supporters made the Trump camp reverse by saying that it was trash. There was also a loss, and finally, in terms of policy, Harris' strongest argument is abortion rights and Trump's economy. But the right to abortion is appealing to women's supporters. Appealing to the female supporters alone had limitations in offsetting men voting for Trump, we should also see that.
[Anchor]
I see. Today on the 5th, local time on the 5th, we had not only the presidential and vice presidential elections, but also the Senate and House of Representatives elections there. Republicans have won the Senate majority in four years right here.
[Anchor]
I'm Andy Kim, a 42-year-old Democrat of the House of Representatives. I entered the Senate with a strategy to break down vested interests. Let's look at reporter Kwon Young-hee's report.
[Reporter]
Representative Andy Kim has entered the House of Lords. New Jersey defeated Republican candidate Curtis Basho. From the time the vote was counted more than half, he won the election early and confirmed the election. Not only Korean-Americans but also Asian people in the entire eastern United States.
[Andy Kim / U.S. Senator-elect from New Jersey: I was an immigrant to my parents and went to a public school. Fifty years ago, we never talked about politics at the table. I come from a family with no political influence, but I'm proud to show that I have the right to represent the state. ]
[Reporter]
Rep. Kim is a symbol of the American dream. Born to first-generation Korean immigrant parents, he served as a foreign and security expert before entering politics. He ran in the November 2018 midterm elections, becoming New Jersey's first Asian federal lawmaker, and has since been elected to the House of Representatives three times. Emphasizing the importance of the presence of U.S. troops in Korea, we have carried out various legislative activities to strengthen the Korea-U.S. relationship. It became a national star during the 2021 parliamentary riots with footage of silently cleaning up the parliament. Senator Bob Menendez, a former New Jersey Republican, has a chance to run after losing his party to a corruption case. Against vested interests, he vowed to serve as a senator with citizens in a humble manner.
[Andy Kim / U.S. Senator-elect of New Jersey] It has evolved from a movement that no one believed would win to a movement that takes our argument to the highest level of democracy. ]
[Reporter]
Rep. Kim chose the accommodation where he first moved to southern New Jersey when he was 5 years old and stayed for a while as the venue for the interview. It's a determination not to lose its original intention. I'm YTN's Kwon Younghee.
[Anchor]
Andy Kim, I'm now a senator, and I'm used to it just by looking at his face, but it's not well known in Korea. Looking at it this time, it's the first Korean-American elected to the U.S. Senate.
[Cho Han-beom]
There are about 2.5 to 2.6 million Koreans. Compared to that, the political power was weak. But there are a lot of House members who are finally in the Senate, the Democratic Party. It's a great thing. And in particular, that position is almost enough if you get a Democratic nomination. I'm more scared of the primary. But there was no vested interest or support in the race. Because he pioneered it by himself, the reform is very strong. So, it can be seen that the political growth potential is very high in the future. But the problem is that Andy Kim is a Democrat.
[Anchor]
For your information, the screen shown now is January 6, 2021.
[Cho Han-beom]
That would have been quite effective. That's a huge political marketing effect.
[Anchor]
during the parliamentary riot
[Cho Han-beom]
I happened to have a chance. That's why I think I've got an opportunity to become a national star. Of course, if you don't have your own efforts, that doesn't appear. However, as with Andy Kim's entry into the Senate, what is worrisome now is the rightward shift in the United States. Not only Trump's election, but the Republican Party and the House of Representatives are also in jeopardy. So if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, America First, then protectionism, then right-leaning, so anti-immigrant things can just go on without some kind of brake. In addition, there is still an agreement within the parliament on the Korea-U.S. alliance, but if the House of Representatives is fully controlled, the situation could change then. Then, the safety devices related to various alliances can be released. So I think the Senate is definitely over. However, since the House of Representatives can't guarantee it now, if it really goes wrong, the era of Trump's dominance in the U.S., or, to put it a little worse, a dictatorship-like solo, could come, which is a hidden concern right now.
[Anchor]
As you have just said, the Senate is now a majority as Republicans take back their districts, and this could put to the test the principle of checks and balances that have sustained American democracy in the future. I think there's also an analysis like this.
[Half note]
That's right. There's a possibility that the Trump administration will unleash unexpected policies. Still, I thought that the United States is a role model for liberal democracy, that there is an institutional infrastructure to protect democracy properly, was the check function of Congress. However, if you take control of both the upper and lower houses, the check function will disappear. So, it's time to think a lot about what to do with the continuation, and yet it's the midterm elections that the United States has set the stage as a very solid institutional democracy. Since there is a midterm election in 2026, if Trump makes arbitrary policies and Congress loses its check function, the people will feel a sense of crisis again. Then I'm going to judge in 2026. Then we can do it again, so I think the 2026 midterm elections will be very interesting in the future.
[Anchor]
It was in 2024 because the House of Representatives is two years in office.
[Half note]
The House of Representatives will change and the Senate will change by two-thirds in 2026.
[Anchor]
There's a midterm election. There's another device in the United States that allows checks to go in that way. I'll go look at another report. The success of former President Trump's re-election is expected to inevitably change the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula. First of all, the possibility of renegotiating the defense cost share between South Korea and the U.S. is also being discussed. Our North Korea policy is also expected to be significantly affected. I'm reporter Lee Jong Won.
[Reporter]
South Korea and the U.S. agreed early last month to contribute to South Korea's defense costs in 2026. It is worth 1.5 trillion won, up 8.3% from the previous one. However, Trump's election raises the possibility that the U.S. will demand renegotiation. Former President Trump has maintained his position that South Korea should pay 13 trillion won a year, nine times the current level.
[Donald Trump/ Former U.S. President] If I were in the White House now, I would pay $10 billion a year. They would have been willing to do so. Korea is a money machine. ]
[Reporter]
Our policy stance toward North Korea, which has emphasized peace by power, is also expected to be significantly affected. Former President Trump has been showing off his "bromance" by exchanging correspondence with Chairman Kim Jong-un even after the "Hanoi breakdown." There is a high possibility that dialogue will be put ahead in any form, but compared to the Biden administration, which has deliberately ignored North Korea, North Korea could have a wider range of actions. During this presidential election, former President Trump also made remarks that seemed to consider North Korea's nuclear possession a fait accompli.
[Donald Trump / Former U.S. President: When we go back to the White House, we will get along well with Chairman Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un is also hoping and missing me. It's good to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons. ]
[Reporter]
With Trump's election, the Korean government's response to the North Korean military's dispatch to Russia has also become more complicated. Former President Trump has criticized Ukraine's support and said he would end the war early. South Korea's position, which foreshadowed a phased response, such as support for weapons of destruction, against North Korea's dispatch of troops, is also likely to be affected.
[Jeong Sung-jang / Director of the Korean Peninsula Strategy Center at Sejong Institute: Since he said he would end the war in Ukraine immediately, there is a high possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine next year. ]
[Reporter]
Earlier, the presidential office said that our government is ready to respond well to whatever the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. He also stressed that the issue of Ukraine aid is being approached from the perspective of protecting our security. I'm YTN's Lee Jong Won.
[Anchor]
Because Trump has emphasized national priority, Korea's defense cost issue is drawing attention, and as you saw the report earlier, he said that Korea is a money machine, that is, a rich country.How do you see Ma? Can we renegotiate it? We negotiated last month.
[Cho Han-beom]
I have the authority of the president of the United States. You have the right to renegotiate. So it's not impossible. I'm sure I'll tell you because I've been using defense expenses as an issue in the election. I don't think I'd really think I'd get 10 billion dollars. Because there's no justification to give you 10 billion dollars. We've already paid enough, and we've spent $10 billion to build things like Camp Humphreys. So I can't even spend 1.5 trillion won that I'm giving now. There are hundreds of billions left a year. What happens if you stay and give more is that we will even pay the salary of the U.S. Forces Korea. If you say you're going to give me that amount. Then the alliance will be broken. Then you'll be armed with $10 billion and you'll have your own weapons accident. That's why I think he sent us a signal during that period. If we make a complaint, it's for the campaign. But I'm sure I've promised the people, so I'm going to try to get more visibly.
[Anchor]
If you look at it now, we agreed on 1.5 trillion won a year as a contribution last month, as you said, and if it's 10 billion dollars a year, it's about 10 times more than this.
[Cho Han-beom]
It's exactly nine times. Then it's 100 billion dollars if you accumulate 10 years. $100 billion is a lot of money. So I don't think they'll think they'll get all that money. President Trump's calculations are just simple. It's about how much you should pay. Last time it was 5 billion dollars. However, what is concerning is that it will definitely require renegotiation. in various guises There must be a lot of names. There is a possibility that they will demand the Washington Declaration or the forward deployment of strategic weapons and the amount for the deployment of strategic bombers. But it's certainly likely to pay more, but $10 billion is a ridiculous amount.
[Anchor]
We can ask for renegotiation, but if that happens, our government will feel pressure. Shouldn't we prepare various negotiation cards?
[Half note]
That's right. First of all, I think we need to imprint the perception that it's a reference point. Even if the Biden administration's negotiation on defense cost-sharing from 2026 to 2030 itself is renegotiated, that is the starting point. In other words, 9 or 10 times is not a reference point, but what we did with the existing government is said to be the reference point, so you have to go from bottom to bottom, not from top to bottom. So I think it's very important to set that reference point and communicate with each other. And Trump actually called in the stakes, which are nine or ten times higher. I'm not going to try to get everything. Still, even if it increases from 1.5 trillion won to hundreds of billions of dollars, it is a negotiation, but it does not make sense for the South Korean government, which has to pay hundreds of billions of dollars. So you have to prepare a response card, and in the case of Trump, for example, you would present a card that a typical president would not think of. If you don't give the money, the U.S. Forces Korea is called strategic flexibility, and you can use it for other purposes without tying it to the Korean Peninsula, or you can even reduce it. And it is highly likely that they can ask for money during the ROK-US joint training, so they will use it as a means to get the money they originally aimed for. So what do we do as a counter benefit to it. For example, it is necessary to make a list of things that can be exchanged in this way, such as asking for a revision of the Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement for a little money. And one thing to refer to in terms of the timeline is that Trump hits allies in the early stages of the campaign, but NATO was the target. It's very much focused on Europe. Then, coming into the second half of the election, I started talking about Korea. Then, is it a refined mesh and has its own strategy? I asked a Washington, D.C., expert about it a lot. But the truth is that there is no logic and strategy, so in conclusion, it is likely that NATO will start hitting the alliance. Then, Korea has earned some time. So it's better to write that list and prepare for the second response. And Trump's term is four years, so even if he drives it, if he drives it after NATO, it takes about six months to a year, and then a year later, if he drives for Korea or Japan, the midterm elections come and then the second half. Then, in terms of how much power it can generate, we have to think about the time frame, and then we have to think about the deal to throw in the opposite benefit, and we also think that Korea will trade with the United States, so we can come up with various solutions.
[Anchor]
I saw a while ago that the trade authorities are doing overnight research tonight, so I wonder how the research will come out. Just a moment ago, as the director of the center said, we talked about the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, and this was the withdrawal of U.S. troops during our first tenure. Do you want me to keep insisting?
[Cho Han-beom]
You said you were going to withdraw from Germany, but you couldn't. So, to put it seriously in the U.S. diplomatic and security line, those who have a little thought know all the enormous benefits of the U.S. as a U.S. soldier in Korea. The interests of the United States are greater than those of us. The U.S. Forces Korea is our deterrent from our point of view, but from the point of view of the U.S., the U.S. troops are 28,000 on the ground. Japan is an island. What's forward-deployed here is a tremendous deterrent to the Asian continent, to humanity. President Trump can't calculate that with money. I think it's just money that's printed in the bank's bank account. So even if we talk about the withdrawal problem, it is for pressure, and there is little possibility that it will be realized. In the end, we couldn't even do the European Union. And I think this security issue, this free ride issue, is a little dilute because NATO was originally supposed to pay 2% GDP for defense, but actually it didn't. Most of them were paying only 1%. But they didn't order it due to the Russo-Woo War, but they said they would pay 2% first. It's like 3% in Lithuania, too. So, unexpectedly, security concerns are high because Russia is already on high alert and Europe is on high alert due to the Russia-U.S. war. Therefore, it is possible that colliding with security costs is less likely than the first period. It's less likely to do it, and we're paying enough for it now, and we're paying 2.5% for defense. 3. I'm telling you to raise it to 5%, but this is far too much compared to NATO. So from what I see, it's symbolically saying that. It protects others with the defense of the United States. But the U.S. is gradually decreasing its percentage of global defense. In a situation where it is decreasing, it cannot continue to shake like the report of the transfer. Because of the effect of the first phase of learning, then President Trump fell, running the first phase of the administration roughly. In my opinion, there is a first-stage learning effect, so I hope and hope that it will not be as rough as the first stage.
[Anchor]
I wonder how diplomacy with North Korea will proceed now, but in fact, when former President Trump was in office, there were harsh words with Chairman Kim Jong-un and later held a summit between the U.S. and North Korea. How do we implement the policy?
[Half note]
I think we need to weigh how Kim Jong-un sees this game now. Kim Jong-un sent a message to Trump. D-5 days, or five days before Election Day, we launched the all-time ICBM Hwasong-19. Look at yourself to the U.S. If he becomes the next president, he will have to deal with North Korea, which has the best ICBM ever.
And just a few hours before that, he fired a short-range ballistic missile. A few hours ago, while launching, short-range ballistic missiles, or SRBMs, are aimed at the United States and SRBMs, or short-range ballistic missiles, are aimed at South Korea, but ICBMs and SLBMs were the starting point for inducing the decoupling of the alliance during the Trump era by sending a message to the United States, which provides extended deterrence to South Korea. Trump was in the White House and shot something in North Korea, SLBM, then you don't have to pay attention, ICBM, you should pay attention to that, that was decoupling. So, it seems to be laying the groundwork to induce a little decoupling and make the collapse of Hanoi into the settlement of Hanoi this time. Then what it is is that we will start nuclear disarmament, but it is a very painful part for Korea. We need to maintain denuclearization. So, maintaining the denuclearization goal will be an important goal. And Kim Jong-un is expecting Trump to respond because Kim Jong-un fired ICBMs and SRBMs and eventually Trump was elected, there is a high possibility that there will be. Then there is a possibility that Kim Jong-un will meet, and it is unclear whether the meeting will actually take place. Because of the Hanoi breakdown, it has a precedent effect, so Kim Jong-un will not meet unless he can achieve his goal perfectly, and he will continue to hold talks in a top-down manner, that is, top-down, but there will be talks that the staff can come empty-handed like the Hanoi collapse. Then, the goal is to adjust it when we meet for the second time rather than when we meet for the first time in Hanoi, so I think it is unclear whether it will actually be achieved.
[Anchor]
We are now looking at Trump's foreign, security, and defense policies in the future. Let me look at one more report. When former President Trump's election as the 47th president of the United States was confirmed, leaders of each country poured congratulations again. Despite the rapid celebration, countries are paying keen attention to changes in the international order following Trump's return to power. Reporter Jung Yoo-shin reports.
[Reporter]
As former President Trump declared victory in front of his supporters after winning the contest, leaders from around the world also congratulated him on social media. French President Emmanuel Macron quickly sent a congratulatory message, saying, "We are ready to work together as we have for the past four years." British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "looking forward to working with former President Trump" and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said the two countries have been "trying to promote prosperity and freedom." Italian Prime Minister Jorja Meloni also congratulated the EU and other European countries, saying, "The most sincere congratulations to President-elect Trump." Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor, who has publicly supported Trump, was the first EU chief to launch a video celebration, calling it a "shining victory."
[Orban Viktor / Hungarian Prime Minister: It is the most brilliant comeback and brilliant victory in the history of Western politics. They put Trump in jail, threatened him, tried to kill him. ]
[Reporter]
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutter also praised Trump for showing strong leadership during his past tenure, saying, "He changed the flow of defense spending in Europe during his term and improved cost sharing." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has waged a war of nerves with the Biden administration for more than a year, called Trump's recapture of the White House "the greatest comeback in history." President Zelensky, who is at war with Russia, also congratulated him on his election and called for "bipartisan support for Ukraine." Russia has been cautious for now, saying it will not jump to the direction of Trump's second-term policy, which it had guaranteed could end the conflict in Ukraine in one day. This is YTN Jeong Yu-shin.
[Anchor]
I'm very curious about the Trump administration's war policy in Ukraine and what other policies will come out in the future regarding the war in the Middle East, but it's also related to Korea.
[Cho Han-beom]
The North Korean military has even been sent out. The Russo-Western War has increased the possibility of an early ceasefire. Because now Putin wants to cease fire, in this state. NATO wants a ceasefire, the United States wants it. However, only Ukraine has almost taken away South Korean territory. It's just that the Zelensky regime and Ukraine's sentiment shouldn't be like this, but everyone is agreed. But President Trump wants to force this war to end. What is it, it's over as long as we don't supply weapons to Ukraine. Then if Putin tries to hit this, you stay still, and it's a truce. In the end, Putin will win at least half. It's a truce by invading someone else's country and taking away the land, so I'm going to go this way. So it's Trump, the former president is likely to go like this in terms of efficiency, regardless of what's right or wrong. Then, the Middle East war is more likely to collapse than it is now through forced intervention. For me, international affairs are not terminated early by Trump. This kind of ceasefire is not the end. So the Russo-War and this part are likely to be premature, and there is a possibility of a ceasefire, not an end. And I haven't met the North Korean issue in four years under President Biden. I couldn't even get a working contact. Rather, communication between the U.S. and North Korea will be lower than that, although I don't know about the summit
[Anchor]
I see. Lastly, the head of the center, please organize the remaining procedures and schedules before taking office after the election.
[Half note]
First of all, the government has not yet established a transition committee, but it is supposed to support it. So there are things like information briefing and providing an office. So we're going to get that, we're going to set up a transition team, we're going to prepare until the next administration, and on December 2nd, we're going to have the second week of electors vote, and then we're going to have January 6th next year. The House and Senate will officially confirm the president and vice president. And it goes through this process of having a presidential inauguration on January 20th.
[Anchor]
In January, former President Trump will take office as the 47th president. That's how we predicted Trump Season 2. So far, I have been with Ban Gil-ju, director of the International Organization Center at the Ilmin Institute for International Relations at Korea University, and Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.
※ 'Your report becomes news'
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■ Starring: Ban Gil-ju, Director of the Korea Institute for International Relations, Chair Researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification Cho Han-beom
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special Adviser - 47th U.S. President Trump Elected] when quoting.
[Anchor]
As former President Trump regained his position as the owner of the White House in four years, attention is being paid to what "Trump Season 2" will look like. That's right. This time, we will talk with Ban Gil-ju, head of the International Organization Center at the Ilmin Institute for International Relations at Korea University, and Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Institute for Unification. Welcome, two of you. Trump was virtually elected, outpacing Harris in the battleground. There are areas where votes are still being counted.Ma was looking forward to the extra time, but I think it ended with a cold game. I feel like that, but honestly, I want to hear from you. Did you expect that?
[Cho Han-beom]
I didn't expect that. Looking at the flow, I think we didn't see the trees after looking at the leaves. I don't think I saw the forest after seeing the trees. Because in fact, one of the most disqualifying candidates in history is former President Trump. So if it's normal, Harris has a pretty good advantage. Because Harris is a former prosecutor and former President Trump is a suspect. And Harris has a lot of advantages right now. It's a woman, followed by six white people in the United States and four people of color. It's almost 19-20% Hispanic, 14-15% Black, and the rest are Asian. Vice President Harris has everything. My mom is from India, so my dad is from Asia, and my dad is from Jamaica, so I have both black and Hispanic. And half of the U.S. population is women. On top of that, former President Trump... then Vice President Harris should have an advantage in many ways. So what I'm telling you about the forest is that the American people were already determined in their minds. What is it, a two-pronged road. One is a world of great anxiety, a world of uncertainty. Russia-U.S. war, then Hamas-Israel, then the Middle East conflict, then North Korea's nuclear development, and the global security order are rapidly falling into chaos. However, the United Nations or related countries cannot control it. It's an era of uncertainty. The U.S. economy is also good as an indicator, but it's not as happy as it used to be because of inflation. That's why I'm depressed. There are two anxieties both domestically and abroad. When it's this unstable, the conservatorship leans to the right. That's why Europe is also facing a wind of rightward swing. So is Netanyahu. Then France, Lupen, then the Italian prime minister, is a descendant of Muslims. At times like this, Putin is strong. People like Xi Jinping, Erdogan. So, you want strong, strong leadership even if you're rough. Or American values, morality, and then international order, even though it's the United States. This is Harris. I think it's going back and forth between these. Then in the end, it's okay to be rough in the era of uncertainty, I think I went like this, Strongman, who can protect me. But it didn't appear in the votes.
[Anchor]
In fact, Republican support was strong, and Trump was ahead in all seven competing states, but in fact, he was 5 million votes ahead of the total number of votes. What do you analyze as the overwhelming winning factor?
[Half note]
It can be said that the prediction failed for now, but in terms of what the U.S. wanted, a strong leader appeared and needed a strong leader to revive the weakening economy and earn profits against foreign countries. I think that worked.
[Anchor]
Then it's America First after all.
[Half note]
That's right. In the end, it was a competition between value and material. Democracy or the interests of the United States or the interests of the United States. However, from the perspective of the American people, the United States is living in the weakest period in the post-war order in a way, so as the nation's robustness weakens, domestic prosperity is limited and its benefits are limited externally, so a strong leader is needed. And the one thing that the message was concise was that the people did not have to pay taxes. I'll put tariffs on it and feed you full with that money. That's what it was about. In fact, internationally, it is not very understandable and does not conform to the principles, but from the people's point of view, it can be said that it made me happy and lived well.
[Anchor]
That's what I'm saying. The public sentiment of the American people was very different from what we see outside the United States. The results are not easy for us to understand. In particular, what surprised us when the announcement was made this shocking or early was that the poll was so close. But when I opened the lid, it said Trump won right away, so how did you see the poll?
[Cho Han-beom]
That's why it's like this. His heart is Harris, but when he took the picture, his hand went to Trump. So no matter how much I look at it, no matter how much I try to give you a good score, the next president will hate it, but I'm not a model student. Rough, racist comments, then 90 charges. You are the suspect. If it's normal, you can't do politics. So, I describe it as Shy Trump, but I think 2016 and 20 years was a big Shy Trump effect. This time, there was a situation in which the indicators of the U.S. economy were good but the contents were bad after the Geroge-U.S. War. I think the voters kept thinking in this anxious situation. So it's not that the polls are completely wrong, it's that the voters are bad. All of a sudden, my mind... so it seems to me that President Trump's marketing, which is a slip of the tongue, is highly calculated. I say something unfavorable, but the message is that I'm rough, but I can do it. But this was not the case with Harris. It was the right way. I realized that about 10 days ago. That's when it started to get rough. But the reason why Hidden Harris has already ended the typhoon in a teacup is that she is the same person of color and sympathizes, but she is weak, so I don't think she can protect my interests. And then these people, who were the key to white women, were unfavorable to women, but Harris couldn't make up for the emptiness. So I don't care, but I lost my hand on the ballot. So there was a limit to the polls to catch this. If this happens, the poll will be criticized again, but in my opinion, the increase in uncertainty over the past four years, the poll did everything to catch Shy Trump this time, giving him weight, but he couldn't catch it. American polling techniques are very advanced. In my view, the global security crisis, the economic crisis, some frustration at home in the United States. For example, after World War II, the U.S. GDP was 40% of the world. It's less than 25% right now. So, in fact, President Trump is now saying to make the United States great, but through the international order, the United States has become stronger by protecting the international order. If you put down the burden of international order, do you become stronger? No. Re-entering as a powerhouse through customs policy? There are no historical cases.
[Anchor]
I see. Anyway, Cho said that the opinion polls have not been able to read what's deep inside, but what's interesting is that he got this right in betting markets such as polymarkets and cash. It came out differently from the poll and the betting market.
[Half note]
So what I told you was a competition between value and matter, but in fact, the market identifies matter first. What the market reacts to is to judge the material and the economy. So it should be said that they captured subtle movements. And the betting market wins and loses by betting, and the difference is huge. So I don't think he would have focused much on the poll. Basically, it is true that there was an error of 3.4% on average in competing stocks. However, in this case, it exceeded only 3.4%, and Trump won the national turnout, contrary to expectations, and almost swept the next competing stocks. Originally, there were three scenarios where we could tell the public when we would be able to win this time. The first one is to teach you today. That's when there's a big gap. And the second is the possibility that it will take up to 4 days or 2 weeks because it will be extremely close as originally expected. And then if the ratio is tied, it is likely to go until next year. Most of the time, I thought of the second scenario, but it came out today.
[Anchor]
It will take a few days, though.
[Half note]
However, if the gap is wide, it comes out on the same day, and the prediction is wrong enough to follow the first one, but instead, in the case of betting, the flow of money and where to go in the end are different calculations.
[Anchor]
I think I'll see a lot of betting markets from the next presidential election.
[Half note]
That's right. That happens, and in the case of predictive models, significant changes will be inevitable.
[Anchor]
In addition, I think the weakening of the concentration phenomenon of certain races this time may have lowered the accuracy of the poll.
[Cho Han-beom]
So the black hole that sucked this in chose money rather than value. I chose practicality over morality, so even though Harris says that, I think Harris is a big liability. In fact, we lost overwhelmingly to President Trump in an absolutely advantageous game. Analyzing the flow, there was Trump's time. When is that, it's due on July 21. President Biden will resign on July 21st. Biden's crushing defeat in his first TV debate at the end of June. Then Trump is on the rise. On top of that, they are ahead by 4% to 5% by getting shot in the ear and doing the Republican National Convention. But it turns around on July 21. President Biden resigns and now Harris' time comes. It was a frenzy, starting with memes. Then, it leads by 3% to 4%. Then, it's almost 10% upside down. This time is a month. But during this month, Harris' weaknesses emerged. Isn't it a cinderilla all of a sudden one day? Because it's the first, first, first, but there's never really been a scene where you break the window with a hammer so fiercely. But during that month, I had to show a strong performance to break this uncertainty, but I couldn't show it. So after about a month, Trump crossed and went up by 3-4%. And as we went on, we were leading by two to three percent, and when we thought it was tough, Vice President Harris started to get tough. Then, I turned upside down. So these flows actually, if you look closely at them, in the end, the flow of choosing to be practical in the era of uncertainty has not changed. What didn't catch the flow on Harris' side. So, I think the story would have been different if we went with In-Fighting from the beginning. I couldn't show that kind of strength. Friendly votes, so Hidden Harris and then racial characteristics. I'm not saying that because I lost because I failed to make these things, and then my sense of justice as a prosecutor, and that's what happened during Hillary. Of course Hillary has something to say. Since I got a lot more national votes. As expected, both candidates had problems in terms of quality to break the window. They're the same candidate, called Trump.
[Anchor]
In that sense, what would it have been like to have Michelle Obama come out, and if there were other candidates. I don't think that's appropriate.Ma, anyway, it was almost as if Trump had outlined it before the West's vote was over today.Ma said Trump declared victory quite early. The characteristic thing I saw there was that I talked a lot about Elon Musk. Do you think Elon Musk helped a lot?
[Half note]
In fact, I think Elon Musk has become the most prominent historical momentum in the history of the U.S. presidential election, except for the president-elect. Because I went all-in. Furthermore, all the celebrities in the United States were really all-in on their own in support of Harris. But there's something that Elon Musk is in line with in terms of identity with Trump. It's kind of like heretical atmosphere. Like this. But the other point is that this time, Elon Musk did not save companies through innovation by acting as a heresy of the economy, but it also worked on politics. Then why did you do that? What's the benefit? In the end, I think we should find the answer with the mindset of an entrepreneur. Elon Musk helped when the Biden administration was launched, but at that time, the Biden administration actually did not give Elon Musk a seat and did not listen. So, I went to anti-Biden and supported Trump, and Elon Musk said he would develop space through SpaceX and move it to Mars in the mid- to long-term, but there are a lot of regulations there. If you don't lift that regulation, you won't achieve that goal.
[Anchor]
You felt very frustrated in the Biden administration.
[Half note]
That's right. So if you become the chairman of the regulatory reform committee, you can solve everything.
[Anchor]
You're giving me a spectacular view, aren't you?
[Half note]
That's right, even though the minister may not even be considered as a minister, I think it is a way to become the chairman of the regulatory reform committee and lift all regulations that interfere with the business you want. In addition, in terms of electric vehicles, it is said that they will lose money due to tariffs, and it is highly likely that Trump will be considerate to prevent such a blow to that part. Also, from a regulatory perspective, what Elon Musk thinks is that electric vehicles are not the final state, but completely autonomous vehicles. For that to happen, a lot of other regulations need to be lifted. There is also something that can be developed through regulation. So if those two things are lifted through regulation, the Elon Musk-led company is really going through the roof. So, if Elon Musk sets up one as a winner and a profit as strong as Trump in this presidential election, it can be seen as Elon Musk.
[Anchor]
While announcing the victory, Trump also congratulated Vice President-elect JD Vance, who played as his running mate. Can you briefly point out the vice president-elect?
[Cho Han-beom]
I don't know if Vance will actually be disappointed, but he didn't contribute much. To the point where I'm worried it's X-Men, because I'm the same white guy now, and then I'm like a dirt spoon or whatever. Now, I refuse anyway. In that sense, Harris had a complementary effect on a seasoned black candidate, followed by a white candidate, but Vance actually made a lot of dangerous remarks during the election. But it doesn't matter what kind of person Vance is, he has the potential to become the next Harris. Because...
[Anchor]
You don't have honorifics?
[Cho Han-beom]
is not. There's no presence, but presence is shown from now on. Because President Trump is old. You look healthy now, but you can't come out next time anyway, number one. Then in office...
[Anchor]
For your information, Trump is 78 years old now.
[Cho Han-beom]
That's what I'm saying. There might be some health issues while in office, and that's why Harris went blind at first. Biden can't come out anyway, he won't come out, and if he has health problems, he will be Harris. But Harris couldn't show it. However, Vance doesn't seem to be a big deal now, and he didn't stand out during the election, but now President Trump can't come out again, so the next Republican candidate will have to stand out. I don't have much. But Vance is the vice president. Then it could be Vance's time, depending on what you do from now on. I'm sure Vance saw it. How Harris gets to the scenario of failure. So one of the hidden pictures is Vance. Trump's time is coming to an end anyway, no matter how spectacular it is. So depending on what opportunity the young Vance is taking, it didn't make much sense during the current election campaign, but maybe if you have staff around you, you're going to start building Vance.
[Anchor]
When I think about Biden back in the day, I remember that Biden tried very hard to eliminate Harris' presence. So he was going to be re-elected himself, so I think the question of what Harris did is that Biden actually made it like that. By the way, what do you think of what he's saying now?
[Half note]
Harris actually didn't get attention even though she was vice president, she didn't have a presence. However, President Biden chose the position like a successor, and in fact, he did something like a free rider. You mentioned Michelle Obama earlier, but in fact, it has been said for a long time that Michelle Obama is competitive. But Michelle Obama said for a long time that she wouldn't do politics, so she took out Harris without a card at all, and that's what I was most worried about. Wouldn't the absence of that presence appear the same when he or she becomes a candidate or presidential candidate? However, washing that concern was a very shiny effect, not just once, but two or three convention effects. So I even caught up with Trump up to 7%. So I thought I'd take it off, but there was a scene where I came back to being non-existent, and it was seen as super-close, but looking at the results now, the super-close appearance didn't last for months, but it was very short. That's why Shy Trump didn't respond to the polls and wasn't revealed. However, what Harris expected was a hidden Harris group, but even that white female group followed the same path as if they had been dropped because they did not lose during Hillary Clinton. From that point of view, the Democratic Party will take a considerable amount of time to recover from this in the future, as it disappoints the various supporters who supported him to win the election to protect democracy after serving as vice president without a presence and running for president without a presence.
[Anchor]
As you just told me, you said that the ultra-tightness was temporary and eventually the lack of presence continued. So if you could do more analysis of Vice President Harris' loss, how would you see it?
[Half note]
If you look at it in many ways, first of all, the Biden administration has the nature of a referee, what Trump won now. In fact, the economy is not completely bad, but there is inflation and prices, so it is judged that the economy has failed. However, Harris was not good at differentiating when she had to differentiate herself. As a vice president, he was in charge of the situation, so he became the subject of judgment. So there was one thing that led me to support Trump because I didn't differentiate myself, and the second one was that I had a short campaign period. Since he suddenly became a candidate, it can be said that he prepared two years for Trump in about four to five months, and actually four years. So it was difficult, and thirdly, President Biden's last-minute slip of the tongue also had a negative impact. In other words, Trump supporters made the Trump camp reverse by saying that it was trash. There was also a loss, and finally, in terms of policy, Harris' strongest argument is abortion rights and Trump's economy. But the right to abortion is appealing to women's supporters. Appealing to the female supporters alone had limitations in offsetting men voting for Trump, we should also see that.
[Anchor]
I see. Today on the 5th, local time on the 5th, we had not only the presidential and vice presidential elections, but also the Senate and House of Representatives elections there. Republicans have won the Senate majority in four years right here.
[Anchor]
I'm Andy Kim, a 42-year-old Democrat of the House of Representatives. I entered the Senate with a strategy to break down vested interests. Let's look at reporter Kwon Young-hee's report.
[Reporter]
Representative Andy Kim has entered the House of Lords. New Jersey defeated Republican candidate Curtis Basho. From the time the vote was counted more than half, he won the election early and confirmed the election. Not only Korean-Americans but also Asian people in the entire eastern United States.
[Andy Kim / U.S. Senator-elect from New Jersey: I was an immigrant to my parents and went to a public school. Fifty years ago, we never talked about politics at the table. I come from a family with no political influence, but I'm proud to show that I have the right to represent the state. ]
[Reporter]
Rep. Kim is a symbol of the American dream. Born to first-generation Korean immigrant parents, he served as a foreign and security expert before entering politics. He ran in the November 2018 midterm elections, becoming New Jersey's first Asian federal lawmaker, and has since been elected to the House of Representatives three times. Emphasizing the importance of the presence of U.S. troops in Korea, we have carried out various legislative activities to strengthen the Korea-U.S. relationship. It became a national star during the 2021 parliamentary riots with footage of silently cleaning up the parliament. Senator Bob Menendez, a former New Jersey Republican, has a chance to run after losing his party to a corruption case. Against vested interests, he vowed to serve as a senator with citizens in a humble manner.
[Andy Kim / U.S. Senator-elect of New Jersey] It has evolved from a movement that no one believed would win to a movement that takes our argument to the highest level of democracy. ]
[Reporter]
Rep. Kim chose the accommodation where he first moved to southern New Jersey when he was 5 years old and stayed for a while as the venue for the interview. It's a determination not to lose its original intention. I'm YTN's Kwon Younghee.
[Anchor]
Andy Kim, I'm now a senator, and I'm used to it just by looking at his face, but it's not well known in Korea. Looking at it this time, it's the first Korean-American elected to the U.S. Senate.
[Cho Han-beom]
There are about 2.5 to 2.6 million Koreans. Compared to that, the political power was weak. But there are a lot of House members who are finally in the Senate, the Democratic Party. It's a great thing. And in particular, that position is almost enough if you get a Democratic nomination. I'm more scared of the primary. But there was no vested interest or support in the race. Because he pioneered it by himself, the reform is very strong. So, it can be seen that the political growth potential is very high in the future. But the problem is that Andy Kim is a Democrat.
[Anchor]
For your information, the screen shown now is January 6, 2021.
[Cho Han-beom]
That would have been quite effective. That's a huge political marketing effect.
[Anchor]
during the parliamentary riot
[Cho Han-beom]
I happened to have a chance. That's why I think I've got an opportunity to become a national star. Of course, if you don't have your own efforts, that doesn't appear. However, as with Andy Kim's entry into the Senate, what is worrisome now is the rightward shift in the United States. Not only Trump's election, but the Republican Party and the House of Representatives are also in jeopardy. So if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, America First, then protectionism, then right-leaning, so anti-immigrant things can just go on without some kind of brake. In addition, there is still an agreement within the parliament on the Korea-U.S. alliance, but if the House of Representatives is fully controlled, the situation could change then. Then, the safety devices related to various alliances can be released. So I think the Senate is definitely over. However, since the House of Representatives can't guarantee it now, if it really goes wrong, the era of Trump's dominance in the U.S., or, to put it a little worse, a dictatorship-like solo, could come, which is a hidden concern right now.
[Anchor]
As you have just said, the Senate is now a majority as Republicans take back their districts, and this could put to the test the principle of checks and balances that have sustained American democracy in the future. I think there's also an analysis like this.
[Half note]
That's right. There's a possibility that the Trump administration will unleash unexpected policies. Still, I thought that the United States is a role model for liberal democracy, that there is an institutional infrastructure to protect democracy properly, was the check function of Congress. However, if you take control of both the upper and lower houses, the check function will disappear. So, it's time to think a lot about what to do with the continuation, and yet it's the midterm elections that the United States has set the stage as a very solid institutional democracy. Since there is a midterm election in 2026, if Trump makes arbitrary policies and Congress loses its check function, the people will feel a sense of crisis again. Then I'm going to judge in 2026. Then we can do it again, so I think the 2026 midterm elections will be very interesting in the future.
[Anchor]
It was in 2024 because the House of Representatives is two years in office.
[Half note]
The House of Representatives will change and the Senate will change by two-thirds in 2026.
[Anchor]
There's a midterm election. There's another device in the United States that allows checks to go in that way. I'll go look at another report. The success of former President Trump's re-election is expected to inevitably change the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula. First of all, the possibility of renegotiating the defense cost share between South Korea and the U.S. is also being discussed. Our North Korea policy is also expected to be significantly affected. I'm reporter Lee Jong Won.
[Reporter]
South Korea and the U.S. agreed early last month to contribute to South Korea's defense costs in 2026. It is worth 1.5 trillion won, up 8.3% from the previous one. However, Trump's election raises the possibility that the U.S. will demand renegotiation. Former President Trump has maintained his position that South Korea should pay 13 trillion won a year, nine times the current level.
[Donald Trump/ Former U.S. President] If I were in the White House now, I would pay $10 billion a year. They would have been willing to do so. Korea is a money machine. ]
[Reporter]
Our policy stance toward North Korea, which has emphasized peace by power, is also expected to be significantly affected. Former President Trump has been showing off his "bromance" by exchanging correspondence with Chairman Kim Jong-un even after the "Hanoi breakdown." There is a high possibility that dialogue will be put ahead in any form, but compared to the Biden administration, which has deliberately ignored North Korea, North Korea could have a wider range of actions. During this presidential election, former President Trump also made remarks that seemed to consider North Korea's nuclear possession a fait accompli.
[Donald Trump / Former U.S. President: When we go back to the White House, we will get along well with Chairman Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un is also hoping and missing me. It's good to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons. ]
[Reporter]
With Trump's election, the Korean government's response to the North Korean military's dispatch to Russia has also become more complicated. Former President Trump has criticized Ukraine's support and said he would end the war early. South Korea's position, which foreshadowed a phased response, such as support for weapons of destruction, against North Korea's dispatch of troops, is also likely to be affected.
[Jeong Sung-jang / Director of the Korean Peninsula Strategy Center at Sejong Institute: Since he said he would end the war in Ukraine immediately, there is a high possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine next year. ]
[Reporter]
Earlier, the presidential office said that our government is ready to respond well to whatever the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. He also stressed that the issue of Ukraine aid is being approached from the perspective of protecting our security. I'm YTN's Lee Jong Won.
[Anchor]
Because Trump has emphasized national priority, Korea's defense cost issue is drawing attention, and as you saw the report earlier, he said that Korea is a money machine, that is, a rich country.How do you see Ma? Can we renegotiate it? We negotiated last month.
[Cho Han-beom]
I have the authority of the president of the United States. You have the right to renegotiate. So it's not impossible. I'm sure I'll tell you because I've been using defense expenses as an issue in the election. I don't think I'd really think I'd get 10 billion dollars. Because there's no justification to give you 10 billion dollars. We've already paid enough, and we've spent $10 billion to build things like Camp Humphreys. So I can't even spend 1.5 trillion won that I'm giving now. There are hundreds of billions left a year. What happens if you stay and give more is that we will even pay the salary of the U.S. Forces Korea. If you say you're going to give me that amount. Then the alliance will be broken. Then you'll be armed with $10 billion and you'll have your own weapons accident. That's why I think he sent us a signal during that period. If we make a complaint, it's for the campaign. But I'm sure I've promised the people, so I'm going to try to get more visibly.
[Anchor]
If you look at it now, we agreed on 1.5 trillion won a year as a contribution last month, as you said, and if it's 10 billion dollars a year, it's about 10 times more than this.
[Cho Han-beom]
It's exactly nine times. Then it's 100 billion dollars if you accumulate 10 years. $100 billion is a lot of money. So I don't think they'll think they'll get all that money. President Trump's calculations are just simple. It's about how much you should pay. Last time it was 5 billion dollars. However, what is concerning is that it will definitely require renegotiation. in various guises There must be a lot of names. There is a possibility that they will demand the Washington Declaration or the forward deployment of strategic weapons and the amount for the deployment of strategic bombers. But it's certainly likely to pay more, but $10 billion is a ridiculous amount.
[Anchor]
We can ask for renegotiation, but if that happens, our government will feel pressure. Shouldn't we prepare various negotiation cards?
[Half note]
That's right. First of all, I think we need to imprint the perception that it's a reference point. Even if the Biden administration's negotiation on defense cost-sharing from 2026 to 2030 itself is renegotiated, that is the starting point. In other words, 9 or 10 times is not a reference point, but what we did with the existing government is said to be the reference point, so you have to go from bottom to bottom, not from top to bottom. So I think it's very important to set that reference point and communicate with each other. And Trump actually called in the stakes, which are nine or ten times higher. I'm not going to try to get everything. Still, even if it increases from 1.5 trillion won to hundreds of billions of dollars, it is a negotiation, but it does not make sense for the South Korean government, which has to pay hundreds of billions of dollars. So you have to prepare a response card, and in the case of Trump, for example, you would present a card that a typical president would not think of. If you don't give the money, the U.S. Forces Korea is called strategic flexibility, and you can use it for other purposes without tying it to the Korean Peninsula, or you can even reduce it. And it is highly likely that they can ask for money during the ROK-US joint training, so they will use it as a means to get the money they originally aimed for. So what do we do as a counter benefit to it. For example, it is necessary to make a list of things that can be exchanged in this way, such as asking for a revision of the Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement for a little money. And one thing to refer to in terms of the timeline is that Trump hits allies in the early stages of the campaign, but NATO was the target. It's very much focused on Europe. Then, coming into the second half of the election, I started talking about Korea. Then, is it a refined mesh and has its own strategy? I asked a Washington, D.C., expert about it a lot. But the truth is that there is no logic and strategy, so in conclusion, it is likely that NATO will start hitting the alliance. Then, Korea has earned some time. So it's better to write that list and prepare for the second response. And Trump's term is four years, so even if he drives it, if he drives it after NATO, it takes about six months to a year, and then a year later, if he drives for Korea or Japan, the midterm elections come and then the second half. Then, in terms of how much power it can generate, we have to think about the time frame, and then we have to think about the deal to throw in the opposite benefit, and we also think that Korea will trade with the United States, so we can come up with various solutions.
[Anchor]
I saw a while ago that the trade authorities are doing overnight research tonight, so I wonder how the research will come out. Just a moment ago, as the director of the center said, we talked about the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, and this was the withdrawal of U.S. troops during our first tenure. Do you want me to keep insisting?
[Cho Han-beom]
You said you were going to withdraw from Germany, but you couldn't. So, to put it seriously in the U.S. diplomatic and security line, those who have a little thought know all the enormous benefits of the U.S. as a U.S. soldier in Korea. The interests of the United States are greater than those of us. The U.S. Forces Korea is our deterrent from our point of view, but from the point of view of the U.S., the U.S. troops are 28,000 on the ground. Japan is an island. What's forward-deployed here is a tremendous deterrent to the Asian continent, to humanity. President Trump can't calculate that with money. I think it's just money that's printed in the bank's bank account. So even if we talk about the withdrawal problem, it is for pressure, and there is little possibility that it will be realized. In the end, we couldn't even do the European Union. And I think this security issue, this free ride issue, is a little dilute because NATO was originally supposed to pay 2% GDP for defense, but actually it didn't. Most of them were paying only 1%. But they didn't order it due to the Russo-Woo War, but they said they would pay 2% first. It's like 3% in Lithuania, too. So, unexpectedly, security concerns are high because Russia is already on high alert and Europe is on high alert due to the Russia-U.S. war. Therefore, it is possible that colliding with security costs is less likely than the first period. It's less likely to do it, and we're paying enough for it now, and we're paying 2.5% for defense. 3. I'm telling you to raise it to 5%, but this is far too much compared to NATO. So from what I see, it's symbolically saying that. It protects others with the defense of the United States. But the U.S. is gradually decreasing its percentage of global defense. In a situation where it is decreasing, it cannot continue to shake like the report of the transfer. Because of the effect of the first phase of learning, then President Trump fell, running the first phase of the administration roughly. In my opinion, there is a first-stage learning effect, so I hope and hope that it will not be as rough as the first stage.
[Anchor]
I wonder how diplomacy with North Korea will proceed now, but in fact, when former President Trump was in office, there were harsh words with Chairman Kim Jong-un and later held a summit between the U.S. and North Korea. How do we implement the policy?
[Half note]
I think we need to weigh how Kim Jong-un sees this game now. Kim Jong-un sent a message to Trump. D-5 days, or five days before Election Day, we launched the all-time ICBM Hwasong-19. Look at yourself to the U.S. If he becomes the next president, he will have to deal with North Korea, which has the best ICBM ever.
And just a few hours before that, he fired a short-range ballistic missile. A few hours ago, while launching, short-range ballistic missiles, or SRBMs, are aimed at the United States and SRBMs, or short-range ballistic missiles, are aimed at South Korea, but ICBMs and SLBMs were the starting point for inducing the decoupling of the alliance during the Trump era by sending a message to the United States, which provides extended deterrence to South Korea. Trump was in the White House and shot something in North Korea, SLBM, then you don't have to pay attention, ICBM, you should pay attention to that, that was decoupling. So, it seems to be laying the groundwork to induce a little decoupling and make the collapse of Hanoi into the settlement of Hanoi this time. Then what it is is that we will start nuclear disarmament, but it is a very painful part for Korea. We need to maintain denuclearization. So, maintaining the denuclearization goal will be an important goal. And Kim Jong-un is expecting Trump to respond because Kim Jong-un fired ICBMs and SRBMs and eventually Trump was elected, there is a high possibility that there will be. Then there is a possibility that Kim Jong-un will meet, and it is unclear whether the meeting will actually take place. Because of the Hanoi breakdown, it has a precedent effect, so Kim Jong-un will not meet unless he can achieve his goal perfectly, and he will continue to hold talks in a top-down manner, that is, top-down, but there will be talks that the staff can come empty-handed like the Hanoi collapse. Then, the goal is to adjust it when we meet for the second time rather than when we meet for the first time in Hanoi, so I think it is unclear whether it will actually be achieved.
[Anchor]
We are now looking at Trump's foreign, security, and defense policies in the future. Let me look at one more report. When former President Trump's election as the 47th president of the United States was confirmed, leaders of each country poured congratulations again. Despite the rapid celebration, countries are paying keen attention to changes in the international order following Trump's return to power. Reporter Jung Yoo-shin reports.
[Reporter]
As former President Trump declared victory in front of his supporters after winning the contest, leaders from around the world also congratulated him on social media. French President Emmanuel Macron quickly sent a congratulatory message, saying, "We are ready to work together as we have for the past four years." British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "looking forward to working with former President Trump" and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said the two countries have been "trying to promote prosperity and freedom." Italian Prime Minister Jorja Meloni also congratulated the EU and other European countries, saying, "The most sincere congratulations to President-elect Trump." Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor, who has publicly supported Trump, was the first EU chief to launch a video celebration, calling it a "shining victory."
[Orban Viktor / Hungarian Prime Minister: It is the most brilliant comeback and brilliant victory in the history of Western politics. They put Trump in jail, threatened him, tried to kill him. ]
[Reporter]
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutter also praised Trump for showing strong leadership during his past tenure, saying, "He changed the flow of defense spending in Europe during his term and improved cost sharing." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has waged a war of nerves with the Biden administration for more than a year, called Trump's recapture of the White House "the greatest comeback in history." President Zelensky, who is at war with Russia, also congratulated him on his election and called for "bipartisan support for Ukraine." Russia has been cautious for now, saying it will not jump to the direction of Trump's second-term policy, which it had guaranteed could end the conflict in Ukraine in one day. This is YTN Jeong Yu-shin.
[Anchor]
I'm very curious about the Trump administration's war policy in Ukraine and what other policies will come out in the future regarding the war in the Middle East, but it's also related to Korea.
[Cho Han-beom]
The North Korean military has even been sent out. The Russo-Western War has increased the possibility of an early ceasefire. Because now Putin wants to cease fire, in this state. NATO wants a ceasefire, the United States wants it. However, only Ukraine has almost taken away South Korean territory. It's just that the Zelensky regime and Ukraine's sentiment shouldn't be like this, but everyone is agreed. But President Trump wants to force this war to end. What is it, it's over as long as we don't supply weapons to Ukraine. Then if Putin tries to hit this, you stay still, and it's a truce. In the end, Putin will win at least half. It's a truce by invading someone else's country and taking away the land, so I'm going to go this way. So it's Trump, the former president is likely to go like this in terms of efficiency, regardless of what's right or wrong. Then, the Middle East war is more likely to collapse than it is now through forced intervention. For me, international affairs are not terminated early by Trump. This kind of ceasefire is not the end. So the Russo-War and this part are likely to be premature, and there is a possibility of a ceasefire, not an end. And I haven't met the North Korean issue in four years under President Biden. I couldn't even get a working contact. Rather, communication between the U.S. and North Korea will be lower than that, although I don't know about the summit
[Anchor]
I see. Lastly, the head of the center, please organize the remaining procedures and schedules before taking office after the election.
[Half note]
First of all, the government has not yet established a transition committee, but it is supposed to support it. So there are things like information briefing and providing an office. So we're going to get that, we're going to set up a transition team, we're going to prepare until the next administration, and on December 2nd, we're going to have the second week of electors vote, and then we're going to have January 6th next year. The House and Senate will officially confirm the president and vice president. And it goes through this process of having a presidential inauguration on January 20th.
[Anchor]
In January, former President Trump will take office as the 47th president. That's how we predicted Trump Season 2. So far, I have been with Ban Gil-ju, director of the International Organization Center at the Ilmin Institute for International Relations at Korea University, and Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.
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