[News UP] "The Golden Age of the U.S. will be opened"... "The 2nd Trump" era, what are the countermeasures?

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Cha Doo-hyun, Senior Researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News Special] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's take a look at what the second Trump era looks like. Cha Doo-hyun, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, is here. Welcome. Initially, there was an expectation that it would take about two weeks to confirm the election, but it ended very early. What do you think?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's what I expected, but this was actually a favorable interpretation for Vice President Harris. I thought that if major contending states such as the 2020 election produce unfavorable results for Trump, and in this case, raising the issue of election fraud would delay the overall schedule and confirmation of the president-elect. It can be said that the results were confirmed early as they were relatively comfortably ahead of not only competing areas but also national turnout.

[Anchor]
Former President Trump won all seven competing states. What do you think is the reason?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
There are various analyses and we need to look at specific voting tendencies, but rather than the commonly talked about Shy Trump, it seems that Shy anti-Biden, Shy anti-Democratic Party, and such tendencies have been revealed more this time than Shy Trump. Because that's been shown in the Senate race. Republicans are expected to win the majority in the House of Representatives as well as the Senate. On top of that, the fact that people in the U.S. have lost ground in the national vote is that public sentiment in the U.S. society has been pushing for agendas over the past four years, especially economic issues, immigration issues and political correctness. So it was a complaint about Christian ideas and familialism, which were the existing social foundations of the United States, and it was not expressed well in the polls, but I think it ended up being voted on.

[Anchor]
There was an analysis that Harris would win a lot of votes from female voters, but I think that's wrong. Black and Latino votes also seem to have shifted a lot toward Trump. What's the reason?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
In particular, Latinos born in American society believe that only their racial background is Latin, but in fact, they are Americans. That's why I see no reason to oppose the regulation of illegal immigration. Because they're coming in to threaten more jobs. Black men also reacted more sensitively because they thought the influx of immigration from Latinos or other countries would take away their jobs. In the end, when you think about it, how much more of the things that men mainly judged have become better to live or more difficult. We have no choice but to compare this with Biden's tenure after Trump's presidency, and it can be said that he gave more votes to Trump because there was a judgment that those days were better.

[Anchor]
If Trump takes power, he is expected to erase the Biden administration's policies from the beginning. The deportation of illegal immigrants and inflation reduction, which have been emphasized so far, will take place right away, right?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. I think quick action will be taken in the form of a presidential executive order. Especially because the term of office cannot be re-elected. There's an age, but... In that case, when you think you're going to push ahead with what you've been advocating for in your four years in office, you're going to be quick on these issues, especially the issue of inflation reduction legislation subsidies and illegal immigration, rather than external issues.

[Anchor]
At the main voting center of the presidential election, and around Trump's home after the vote is over, there is a strict vigilance, and the U.S. society has been divided and divided during the presidential election process. Isn't this a part to be pointed out considerably?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
The fact that voting tendencies are divided is inevitable due to the nature of the winner-take-all election system in the United States, but the problem is that voters' feelings for each other are polarized rather than divided. So, even if you look at the results of various polls, you see that the criteria for what the other person says, justice, and such are completely different. He and his supporters don't believe in opinions about the other side.

[Anchor]
We are also very interested in how Trump's election will affect our country. First of all, there was an analysis that the picture of cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan established with the Biden administration would be different. What do you think?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
There is certainly room for that, but in fact, why would I have had a hopeful thought? It will be a very difficult task in the Korea-U.S. relationship. And I think I experienced it during the first period, so of course, I talk about that a lot. There are still many supporters of the Korea-U.S. alliance in the Congress, and the aides say they will advise on it appropriately, but since both houses of Congress are controlled by Republicans, it is highly likely to support President-elect Trump's direction. Then, after experiencing many foreign ministry aides in the first term, Trump will think that I am the best at external affairs. Now that there is a possibility that you will not take advice from anyone, you can take a very strong drive on the issue of defense cost sharing, which we often talked about. The same goes for trade.

[Anchor]
You mentioned trade, but Trump's economic policy is strong protectionism, isn't it America First? Wouldn't it have a huge impact on our industry?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. We used the expression "money machine" for Korea. Earn a lot of money from nuance. It also means rich, but as a result, there is a lot of nuance that they only care about making money without caring about allies or allies. If this happens, the tariff issue will appear first in the meantime. Trump aides say tariffs are the most effective way to increase U.S. domestic employment, but the tax cut will be the first thing to say. Next, our companies investing in the United States. Now, we are receiving subsidies according to the Semiconductor Act or the Inflation Reduction Act. In this regard, subsidies will be cut as already announced, and in this case, our businesses that have already invested will inevitably bear a considerable burden. And if a 10% universal tariff is applied, companies that focus on exporting to the U.S. will have to be that nervous.

[Anchor]
Hasn't Trump previously professed that he can finish the war against Ukraine within 24 hours? So, some analysts say that if the U.S. aid to Ukraine changes, the part where the Korean government provides weapons to Ukraine will also change.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
You'll be able to get that part out of your worries. Because we don't have to express any position first. In my opinion, if the transition of power begins, there will be behind-the-scenes contact between the Kremlin and Trump. Of course, the Kremlin is saying that they don't like Trump being elected, but two conditions if that happens. Russia recognizes a significant portion of the occupied territories already occupied by Russia and forcibly annexed them. Second, if Ukraine's inability to join NATO is probably met, it will pressure Ukraine's Zelenskyy government to cease fire. In such a case, Russia is not in a poor situation to attract and use North Korean troops because the problem has been solved.

Then, the biggest reason why we thought about whether to provide weapons or expand support is the North Korean military's deployment. Rather, this problem can be solved from concerns, but the fact that the North Korean military has been deployed is a symbol of close ties between North Korea and Russia. Then, what if Russia provides nuclear technology to North Korea? This is bound to be a considerable concern for us because it coincides with President Trump's allies we talked about earlier. So you can think of it like this. Fundamentally, the basic idea of an alliance is now to sit face to face with a different partner. If alliance used to be the keyword of cooperation and trust, now it's a deal. You have to deal with a partner who values transactions between allies.

[Anchor]
Let me ask you one last question. Many analysts say that the relationship between North Korea and Russia is close, but there will be a change in the relationship between the U.S. and North Korea.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
President Trump has talked about many things during his campaign, but what are his foreign policy priorities? I think the match against Ukraine will be over first. . It promised a deadline. The second issue is the elimination of anti-Israel forces in the Middle East, which can empower Netanyahu's government. The North Korean issue has been said to have a good relationship, but in the past, when the U.S. dialogue began in 2018, the U.S. hated China's involvement in the North Korean issue. The same will be true for Russia. However, there is an inertia that has been maintained for the past year. Since the U.S. suddenly said that, let's cut it off. North Korea and Russia are in a position where they can't talk about it. Considering these and other circumstances, I don't think the North Korean issue will suddenly change as we thought the U.S. policy toward North Korea.

[Anchor]
I'll stop listening to it. I was with Cha Doo-hyun, a senior researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you.