Kim Jong Un's First Reaction to Trump's Election...skeptical of North Korea-U.S. dialogue

■ Host: Um Ji-min, Jung Chae-woon, Anchor
■ Telephone connection: Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has been silent about the results of the U.S. presidential election for a while, made his first remarks conscious of Trump's North Korea policy. As Trump has emphasized his friendship with Kim Jong-un, he has been paying attention to whether the U.S.-North Korea dialogue can resume, but the contents of his remarks show that he is quite skeptical. Let's take a look at the recent issues related to North Korea and security, including these. Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification, is on the phone. Commissioner, you're out, right?

There were many observations that U.S.-North Korea dialogue would resume after President Trump's election, but when I saw Kim Jong-un's first remarks, it seemed to draw a line on this. In the meantime, I've done enough to negotiate. However, the U.S. policy toward North Korea remains aggressive and hostile. I made this position, but how did you hear this position?

[Cho Han-beom]
I think that's what I expected. Because of his relationship with President-elect Trump and his relationship with him three times, it seems true that there are expectations for the resumption of negotiations with Trump, but it was also the first Trump campaign that caused the most fatal wound to the Kim Jong-un regime when it ended with no deal in Hanoi in February 2019. So, at a time when the North Korean media is silent, Kim Jong-un's own reaction came out faster than expected, and this exhibition of armed equipment, but he uses the term "American" twice in his speeches before that. And even though we've done as much as we can to negotiate this time, it's ultimately a hostile policy from the United States. And the U.S. politicians say that the U.S. is not a hostile force, but it is not, and of course, it doesn't seem that they have completely given up negotiations with the U.S. At least, I don't intend to come out easily, so I think he has a bigger nature of warning remarks about Trump's second term.

[Anchor]
Then, can it be interpreted as Kim Jong-un's current position, and that he will focus on relations with Russia rather than the United States for the time being, given that he is currently dispatched to the war in Ukraine?

[Cho Han-beom]
Looking at the current situation, North Korea-Russia and Russia-Russia new normal are continuing to cooperate in all directions, and additional dispatch of troops in addition to Kursk. If there are 150mm long-range guns, 50 domestic guns, and 20 240mm multiple rocket launchers, which have been reported a lot, at least hundreds of operational personnel must go for this operation, even if 4,000 people do not know. Like a backup. And since Putin is now using intermediate-range ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons called Oisinik, Russia is almost entirely dependent on North Korean ammunition and troops. Then, for Kim Jong-un, there is a possibility that he will focus more on strengthening Russia's relationship than on the U.S., at least. Therefore, it is not easy to expect a change in US-North Korea relations within a short period of time.

[Anchor]
The place where Chairman Kim Jong-un made his remarks also drew attention. It was an armed equipment exhibition called Defense Development-2024, but looking at the photos released, what did you notice about the new weapons?

[Cho Han-beom]
Nothing has changed much compared to last year. However, the unsuccessful Chollima Type 1 space launch vehicle, and the Manri-kyung Type 1 were displayed, and the ICBM used this time, the Hwasong-19 type, which was shot just before the U.S. presidential election, and these missiles. In a big way, most of the liquid rockets that North Korea used for military purposes in the past are not nearly all, but are difficult to find. I switched to solid. That's what stands out. And on the drone side, new unmanned systems stand out to a large extent. And by showing the many weapons that have been developed so far, it seems that they intended to show off their military power and military marketing to Russia.

[Anchor]
And it was noteworthy that North Korea revealed a photo released at the arms exhibition, and Yoo Yong-won, a member of the People's Power, said that North Korea unveiled a drone believed to be a corrugated self-destruct drone. How do you see the power of this corrugated drone that can be used to assassinate factors?

[Cho Han-beom]
All of a sudden, the war revealed the power of drones in modern warfare. Israel-Hamas on several occasions, as well as the Armenian War. And drones are being used effectively in the Russo-Japanese War. So, the importance of drones is growing to the extent that it is the drone era in the war, but the drone system and drone defense system are rapidly developing. So drones are game changers. It's not easy to see them like this yet. However, the characteristic of drones is that they are highly cost-effective.

So, at a very low price, for example, billions of won or tens of billions of won for a tank, but drones are millions of won at most. There are scenes where you can neutralize it with this one thing. In particular, in the case of corrugated drones, the aircraft is made of corrugated cardboard or plastic that cannot be detected by radar. If that happens, the most worrisome thing is that it can't be detected. If you have precision strike capabilities here, it can be used in many places, so there are even talks about factor assassination. In fact, if you want to go to factor assassination, you need to weigh more of this drone. It needs to be equipped with a precision system. It's true that it's a threat. But now, the drone system is also being developed, you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
Let's also talk about sending North Korean troops to Russia. There are various foreign media reports, and the Wall Street Journal said that a high-ranking North Korean general was injured by a Ukrainian airstrike in Kursk, and the RFA reported that a drone crashed due to a North Korean military mistake and caused a number of casualties, which are reliable information.

[Cho Han-beom]
It's half and half. So far, what we can trust is that 11,000 North Korean troops have been dispatched to Russia, trained, and deployed near Kursk, and seem to be participating in small-scale fighting. So far, it is largely consistent with the judgment of various intelligence agencies and the intelligence authorities of the Republic of Korea, the United States, and Ukraine. The rest of the cases have not been confirmed. People's soldiers have never been captured, North Korean soldiers. Then there was the injury of a high-ranking North Korean general, and the fact that a drone crashed and caused casualties. It's not easy for the media to handle such high-quality information. If that's true, the Ukrainian defense authorities or the intelligence authorities should disclose it. So what is certain is that about 11,000 people are concentrated in Kursk and it seems to be true that fighting is imminent. But nothing else has been confirmed yet.

[Anchor]
Then how do these reports come out?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, these are information favorable to Ukraine. And most of the things that are coming out, such as canisters, wounded people's troops, and flags, are coming from pro-Ukry or civilian levels. Therefore, it is highly likely that it is a psychological warfare that supports Ukraine. In fact, if a prisoner of the People's Army or a North Korean soldier was captured, the Ukrainian defense authorities would be sufficient to disclose it. So, it is still difficult to check various videos and news that are circulating. And most of the news is in Ukraine's favor. Given this, we cannot rule out the possibility of a psychological war between the Ukrainian military authorities or pro-Ukrainian civilian organizations.

[Anchor]
The recent reports should be reliable, but the third committee of the UN General Assembly recently adopted the North Korean human rights resolution again at a time when the North Korean military is clearly dispatched with 11,000 troops. North Korea has strongly opposed the resolution, what is included in the resolution?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, it's especially the same as in the past. In the aftermath of various North Korean missile developments on human rights issues in North Korea, resources are concentrated here. And human rights violations are increasing in the aftermath. And various previously known bad manners. These are the contents that emphasize once again the Pyongyang Cultural Protection Act, the Reaction Idea Cultural Anti-Culture Act, the Youth Culture Security Act, and the existing human rights violations. In this situation, North Korea, which believes that it has secured some of the background through close contact with North Korea and Russia, is strongly opposed to this.

[Anchor]
Going back to a moment ago, when I ask you a question, you said that North Korea will not actively engage in North Korea-US dialogue while focusing on relations with Russia rather than the United States. On the contrary, what kind of stance do you think Trump will take?

[Cho Han-beom]
From President Trump's point of view, Kim Jong-un is worse than the first. This is because there is no burden of re-election for the second term, and in the U.S. diplomatic security, Europe is the first and the Middle East is the second. Unfortunately, since the Korean Peninsula is in third place, the possibility of Trump's second term rushing to resolve the North Korean issue does not seem so high. And in fact, skepticism is spreading in the United States about whether North Korea, as well as Republicans and Democrats, will really start complete denuclearization.

So first of all, the Russo-War. Since he said he'd finish it in a day, I think he'll focus on the Israel-Hamas workshop next. However, President Trump is unlikely to leave the North Korean issue unattended because it is also a political marketing genius. So, I don't think we will start contacting North Korea and the U.S. early, but we will try to resolve it after a certain period of time. But Kim Jong Un's trauma to Hanoi. Then, compared to February 2019, a lot of time has passed and North Korea's nuclear capabilities have been dramatically advanced. So, Trump himself is probably well aware of the difficult situation to solve in a few top-down ways like in the first period because it has become much more complex.

[Anchor]
Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.