1,000 days of war in Ukra...Concerns over intensifying 'strong vs strong'

'Strong vs. Strong' Ukraine
Ukra to use Western missiles
Russia to counterattack with new missile
"multi-dance, nuclear-capable"

■ Host: Anchor Kim Youngsoo Kim and anchor Park Min-seol
■ Starring: Researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Yangwook

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The war in Ukraine, which began with Russia's invasion, has already been more than 1,000 days. Recently, the U.S. has expanded its use of offensive weapons against Ukraine, and Russia has also responded with intermediate-range missiles, showing signs of intensifying into a strong-to-strong one. However, there is also a possibility of a ceasefire, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy saying he is waiting for the Trump administration's end of the war. Let's talk with Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Please come in. Hello, the war in Ukraine has been getting more intense lately. What kind of situation should I understand?

[Yang Wook]
After all, as Trump said after Trump takes office next year, we're not sure if there will be a ceasefire or an end to the war within 24 hours of taking office, but one thing is clear: the U.S. is likely to significantly reduce its support for the war in Ukraine anymore. In the end, Ukraine will no longer have the power to wage war, and in the end, this will result in a situation where ceasefire negotiations are forced anyway. If so, the action each country will take before the ceasefire or armistice negotiations is to secure as much territory as possible in a war.

[Anchor]
That's why it's getting more intense, right?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. When you look at the Korean War, wasn't the war of war intensified ahead of the Armistice Agreement? To secure even an extra inch of land. You can understand that's what it looks like.

[Anchor]
But looking at it, it seems that the two sides have been exchanging high-tech weapons with each other over the past week. What weapons are being used now?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, the missile that the U.S. says is "A-Tax." This is an Army tactical ballistic missile.

[Anchor]
Is the missile coming out now a storm shadow?

[Yang Wook]
What just came out is a storm shadow missile. Anyway, the reason I told you first is that you can fly about 300km and hit, and then that storm shadow from England and France was delivered. Storm shadow is known to be a range of about 250 kilometers according to our media. The reason for that is that the export type is like that. The range is 550 kilometers, which is used by Britain and France. But what this means is that if the British and French troops just delivered it, it doesn't mean they gave it for export. It can be said that they gave what they used right away, and that's how Russia sees it.

So in the end, this is the closest distance to Kursk and Moscow, which are the battlegrounds. The distance there is over 500km. So, in a nutshell, there is a growing sense of crisis that they will be able to hit Moscow. So Putin had no choice but to take action. The result of the action was the launch of an ICBM recently, so it was a fuss, but it turned out that it was the launch of this missile, which was a mid-range missile.

[Anchor]
I think you're talking about Oresynik. Prior to this, it means a hazel tree launched by Russia, in Russian. It's a hypersonic missile that can even carry a nuclear warhead?

[Yang Wook]
It was originally made to mount a nuclear warhead. As you know, it's hazelnut and hazelnut. If you look at it, don't you think there are several fruits on hazelnut leaves? That's why it means daht warhead. Looking at this, the Russian announcement says that the Oresynik missile can be equipped with up to six multiple warheads. And then, as you know, this is a hypersonic missile. What is hypersonic missiles are called hypersonic missiles that exceed Mach 5, but I'm not just saying that it's a hypersonic missile just because it exceeds Mach 5. Usually, when our general ballistic missiles descend, the speed is about Mach 4 to 5. So at the final stage. But I'm not saying that, at least Mach 5 in the flight stage. Then what happens is that you have to go up to Mach 10.

So, in fact, that's why this missile is about Mach 10, Putin says. So we have to be at that point to say that it's a hypersonic missile. The reason I'm talking about Mach 10 is why the speed is important. When we intercept missiles, don't we use Patriot PAC-3 a lot? The speed at which the Patriot PAC-3 intercepts is usually designed to intercept Mach 4 and 5.

[Anchor]
Hypersonic missiles must be hard to defend against.

[Yang Wook]
It's relatively difficult. If you're very lucky and you're lucky enough to get a missile at a range, there's a chance you can intercept it. If you're coming in from a completely unexpected direction, or whatever the shape that hypersonic missile takes, the biggest point is that it doesn't fly completely freely like an airplane is flying, but it can bend its orbit many times. Because of that advantage, it becomes more difficult to use missile defense.

[Anchor]
Ukraine fired two missiles at Russia first. Then Russia has also fought back against that.
But Ukraine said that Russia fired ICBMs at first. So the very next day, President Putin said it wasn't an ICBM. I think there are many different messages.

[Yang Wook]
That's right. First of all, let me tell you the difference between ICBM and IRBM. ICBMs, as I said, will be intercontinental ballistic missiles. That's why we say ICBMs should have a range of more than 5500km. The reason why 5500km was because didn't intercontinental ballistic missiles come out when the United States and the Soviet Union competed with each other? That's the equivalent of 5,500km because it's the distance between the United States and the Soviet Union, for example, the distance that usually attacks beyond Antarctica. IRBMs are usually said to be less than 5500 kilometers and usually more than 3,000 kilometers, but if you think about it, don't you think North Korea attacks Guam with IRBMs or uses intermediate-range missiles? It corresponds to that distance, and for example, from Russia's point of view, it is a medium-range missile that can attack all over Europe anywhere. That's why it's like this. If Russia shot an ICBM, that's a direct message to the United States. However, shooting an IRBM is a warning message to countries in the NATO region. So, as I said earlier, if you deliver a Storm Shadow missile with a range of 500 kilometers, it will strike us in Moscow, and in that case, you will all get our revenge.

[Anchor]
I see. You analyzed that the reason why the two sides are exchanging and intensifying is to occupy more territory ahead of the ceasefire and ceasefire. Kremlin willing to discuss ceasefire deal with Trump I expressed this position.

[Yang Wook]
First of all, the Kremlin has been talking about a ceasefire since the beginning of this year. It has been going on since the beginning of this year, but after the Kursk region has been taken away, it has not been talking about a ceasefire. Kursk is a politically sensitive place, but the reason why we're talking about this armistice now is that the Trump administration will come in soon anyway, and then the war will end. In fact, because there's an expectation that the war will end soon, we've sent a lot of troops to this Kursk region right now. They added about 50,000 more people, but even they couldn't bring all of those 50,000 to the entire Russian army, so they invited North Korea. That's the context. Russia currently has 1.2 million active members.

It's 1.2 million, and we're going to increase it to 1.5 million by December of this year, which means that we're going to add about 300,000 troops and bring everything out of this war in Ukraine before the eventual ceasefire.
I think we're approaching that direction in the end. After all, all the land Ukraine occupied is ours. Admit this. We can negotiate on these terms. That's what we're talking about.

[Anchor]
Tensions seem to be rising ahead of the last territorial concession.

[Yang Wook]
So it's not so much a territorial concession. From Zelensky's point of view, the territory must be restored anyway, in some form. Kursk was actually that card. And so the goal is to take away the territory of Russia, which boasts of the Kursk region, and to some extent exchange it for Ukrainian soil. In the end, from Russia's point of view, if they take back Kursk anyway, they can take all the territory they have in this war as their own, and that's the calculation.

[Anchor]
Ukrainian President Zelensky is coming out, and when I saw the news today, I asked Trump to show me the final draft. So, Trump is saying that if he takes office within 24 hours, he can end the war quickly, and he is saying that he will cut off support, so he is asking Trump to come up with a proposal for an end to the war. Where is the reason for making that position?

[Yang Wook]
In the end, it will be to see what Trump is talking about on the premise that the two sides have relatively little trust and then eventually concede what to Russia. In fact, Trump did not say it himself several times, but Trump himself said he would end the war quickly and his aides kept talking. For example, the most recent remarks, the remarks made by the aide, are like this. Ukraine is not obsessed with territory. Stick to the end of the war. That means give up the territory. In the end, I think we are trying to check whether this position is clearly seen in Trump's end-of-war proposal first.

[Anchor]
I see. In fact, we have no choice but to keep a close eye on the dispatch of North Korean troops. In particular, a few days ago, foreign media reported that North Korea's technical difficulties arrived in the Russian-occupied Mariupol region of Ukraine. The fact that the North Korean military has been seen here seems to be very meaningful.

[Yang Wook]
Mariupol was one of the very central goals of the early days of the war. This is because the Crimean Peninsula, which was occupied by Russia, and the Donbas region, which was continuously disputed. The most important link to be connected is the Mariupol region. So the Ukrainian army fought the final battle there until almost May of that year and then surrendered, but anyway, the Mariupol area is a solidly defended area. And how you look at this Mariupol area, whether it's Donbas or Zaporizhzhia or Kherson, you'll have to look at it as a point where you separate your troops from it.

In the end, there are North Korean engineers, and in short, North Korean weapons systems to be deployed to the front line and then these people to manage and educate them were seen there. What this means is that these equipment and personnel will be put into the wire soon.

[Anchor]
There was also news that a high-ranking officer commander in the North Korean military was injured. How much has it been confirmed?

[Yang Wook]
It's because logically, so there's no one who's killed or injured yet.Didn't the storm shadow I mentioned earlier attack Ma? The Ukrainian military says that about 10 shots hit the target accurately, and where it hit is the command that commands the entire Kursk front. So, it's so natural that there will be a high-level North Korean commander in such a front-line command, so it's said that there could be injuries.

[Anchor]
I see. And Director Shin Won-sik said in a broadcast interview that Russia supported Pyongyang's air defense equipment and anti-aircraft missiles in exchange for sending troops to North Korea. What kind of background is there?

[Yang Wook]
In fact, it can be seen as one of the most predictable contents. Because Kim Jong-un's biggest fear is the emergence of U.S. B-2 stealth bombers and such strategic bombers.

[Anchor]
North Korea's air defense must be weak?

[Yang Wook]
It's not weak. What I mean is that it's known to be almost world-class in terms of density, but the problem is that these equipment have been updated very much. They are old equipment. North Korea is developing new missiles like the new Lightning-5, the Lightning-6.In fact, the air defense system doesn't only work because it's good for missiles, but it also needs to have excellent radars. Then, all of this is connected to advanced information and communication, so you have to move organically. In that sense, North Korea lacks the latest air defense system, such as the S-400, which can also detect and attack stealth aircraft, which is known as this system. Of course, the results of operations in Syria and elsewhere seem to have not been very operational, which may be due to the lack of capacity of the Syrian military. It may be a difference in the capabilities of Syrian or Iranian forces, but for North Korea, it is necessary to bring the most state-of-the-art system of Russia and protect it first. Because every basic goal of North Korea is to hold the leadership association after all.

[Anchor]
There are also some concerns about whether Russia will pass on cutting-edge technology, but Chairman Kim Jong-un expressed his position that he has gone as far as going with the United States as his first position since Trump's election. It's a little negative, what do you think?

[Yang Wook]
Of course, you have to say it negatively. He'll try to raise his ransom as much as he can. So, anyway, there's probably an expectation that Trump will be able to talk because he has had a few nuances of the conversation.Ma will come back empty-handed if she goes like Hanoi this time? Then, this could serve as an opportunity to completely distrust Kim Jong-un's abilities. The most unwanted situation for North Korea is that it went there and advertised like that, but there was no deal and nothing was achieved, coming back empty-handed, which North Korea will fear, and perhaps the North will take a much more cautious approach to this conversation. And I can tell you that I will create maximum tension to increase my ransom.

So I'm actually very worried about next year. Because North Korea has launched a lot of missiles so far. Anyway, what happens next year is a five-year defense development plan that North Korea has been developing weapons systems, which began in 2021. Next year is the last year. Then next year is the last year, and among the tasks, I think it's about 50-60% or not. Then you have to show the rest of 40-50% of the time next year. Then, the level of tension is bound to increase. In the end, North Korea's approach would be to make things like that, so we raised the tension as much as possible and then we won, we got it, we got it, and so on.

[Anchor] You said you've been to
, but the real thing is that you want to negotiate more with the United States and get more.

[Yang Wook]
Of course, the more important thing before that was that I sent troops because I got a lot of promises with Russia. So getting as much as possible from Russia, getting support. Getting everything promised will be the first priority for North Korea.

[Anchor]
In the meantime, North Korea has received a lot of support from the Chinese side. I think I've been getting closer to Russia lately.

[Yang Wook]
That's right. In fact, North Korea's position on supporting China is not enough to die. It's done to survive the system, making North Korea a strong and powerful country, especially the development of nuclear weapons and missiles that Kim Jong-un wants, and the improvement of those capabilities, because China saw Russia as the target that could give it in the end because it didn't want to. It's actually a mercenary act. In any case, it can be seen that this unreasonable act of participating in the war is the reason.

[Anchor]
From North Korea's point of view, can it be said that the bargaining power has increased because it has also gained the back seat of Russia?

[Yang Wook]
That's what I'm going to think. I'll emphasize that solidarity more. Originally, what seems clear in a way from before was that Kim Jong-un had talked to Trump, so he was able to make his international debut with Xi Jinping and Putin. I would like to say that North Korea will continue to play this seesaw game.

[Anchor]
I think negotiations will be really important in the future. Our government's response, please tell us what to do last. [Yang Wook] Our government has emphasized a principled response.Ma can't say that this is very wrong. In any case, North Korea has continued to say that it will not talk to South Korea after the Hanoi No Deal, and then after the bombing of the South-North Joint Liaison Office. Anyway, take a principled approach, but what's really important is that if the United States can and does talk, we should make the most of it. We can set up really good measures to use the United States so that we can bring good results to each other. Trump gets what Trump wants, and let me tell you that it's important that we get access so we can get what we want.

[Anchor]
Thank you. We have also looked at the situation of the war in Ukraine and recent movements in North Korea. I was with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you very much.