[News Now/Issue Call] North Russia shows off its military closeness...Visibility of additional dispatch?

■ Proceedings: Anchor Jung Ji-woong
■ Phone: Senior Researcher at Hongmin Unification Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Russia's defense minister, who is at war with Ukraine, visited North Korea last week and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in person. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Bellowsov celebrates his World War II victory on May 9 next year. He promised to invite North Korean troops to the 80th anniversary of the Victory Day ceremony. It is drawing more attention because it is an invitation from North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia and the possibility of Chairman Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia next year.

Attention is also being paid to whether North Korea will expand its arms aid to Russia following the dispatch of North Korean troops to the North amid the military closeness between North Korea and Russia. There were even reports that North Korea recently provided Russia with 100 of its main artillery systems, including the latest 240mm multiple rocket launcher. Let's talk in detail with Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Commissioner, you're out.

[Hongmin]
Hello.

[Anchor]
During the war, the Russian defense minister visited North Korea. What did we talk about?

[Hongmin]
It is necessary to infer based on what was reported from North Korea. According to the North Korean report, the two countries discussed greatly contributing to strengthening their defense capabilities and guaranteeing security. Considering the various circumstances and the situation Russia is in now, there seem to be about four possibilities.

One is the cooperation part related to additional dispatch and weapons or munitions production. Perhaps North Korea is making a general offensive ahead of the Trump administration, which is about eight weeks away. Therefore, additional troops are very needed. In fact, it has been confirmed that North Korean troops who have already been dispatched are active everywhere, and it is highly likely that the North Korean military will try to strengthen the reins of the offensive through additional dispatch, judging that it contributes to some extent.

In particular, it seems that this may have been discussed as well because it is necessary to secure stable military production in order to continuously manage the charter after this general offensive. Second, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that North Korea and Russia have taken this opportunity to discuss visualizing joint exercises because North Korea has demanded security, that is, security guarantees on the Korean Peninsula.

This process is believed to be intended to show that providing weapons to Ukraine in order to pressure South Korea with the possibility that South Korea can provide Ukraine aid, especially through joint training between North Korea and Russia, can create tension on the Korean Peninsula.

The third is that there have been recent reports within Trump's camp that if the Trump administration is launched, it is likely to proceed with dialogue with North Korea quickly. So maybe from Russia's point of view, we need to hold North Korea more as an ally in order to maintain a stable North Korea-Russia alliance and lead the situation in favor of peace negotiations after the inauguration of the Trump administration.

So it's likely that they took steps together this time to maintain the Trump administration, which is shaking the North Korea-Russia alliance, and to strengthen solidarity. Overall, there seems to be a possibility that a large part of the discussion on benefits in return for North Korea will be discussed.

[Anchor]
If you mentioned the additional dispatch of troops, and this was mentioned, how much do you expect the timing and scale?

[Hongmin]
In fact, it has been confirmed that the North Korean military is already participating in the briefing at the Pentagon. We haven't confirmed the specific role yet. However, Russia is continuing its de facto general offensive on the eastern front and in the Kursk region. Ukraine is struggling with this, and the United States is also very concerned about this.

In fact, the North Korean military dispatched in the United States is contributing to a certain extent. This may also contribute to the combat role on the front line, but rather, there is a breathing room in circulating alternative forces, circulating the entire Russian force. So, I think they are judging that they are contributing to the offensive in large part.

So, if this is probably true, it may be difficult to send additional troops virtually after the Trump administration's inauguration. Because it can develop directly into the phase of peace negotiations. Therefore, it can be judged that it may be advantageous to send additional troops now in order to seal the offensive and gain the upper hand in a surprise move.

Therefore, it seems difficult to rule out the possibility of coordinating the dispatch to favor the current general offensive, that is, discussing sending troops before the inauguration of the Trump administration.

[Anchor]
North Korea recently provided Russia with 100 of its main artillery systems, including the latest 240mm multiple rocket launcher. This report came out. Can it be seen as playing a major role in compensating for the Russian military's power loss?

[Hongmin]
That's right. It's likely to play a very big role. The reason is that Russia has already spent a significant amount of its artillery forces through more than two years of war, so the loss is also very large. As you all know, the war between Ukraine and Russia is largely an artillery war, and then a drone battle. These are very important factors in the war itself, which is very effective.

Therefore, from Russia's point of view, it can be said that factors that can make up for and replenish the artillery power that has been administered so far are very important. What we're talking about now is a 170mm self-propelled gun, followed by a 240mm multi-launch rocket gun.

This also needs to be checked more, but it seems highly probable. Because in the case of 240mm multiple rocket launchers, a new type was recently released in North Korea. It has a range of at least 40 to 60 kilometers, even if it is not an updated type, and 60 to 60 kilometers if it is an updated type. Due to the nature of Ukraine's battlefield, which relies on artillery and trench warfare in vast open areas, if 240mm is provided, it is likely to contribute to the artillery force at all times, and the current situation in which Ukraine is struggling considerably is likely to worsen.

And even if peace negotiations develop in the future, conventional power such as 240mm will continue to be needed to manage the front line. So it's very likely that Russia would have asked for this weapon quite a bit and North Korea would also have supported it to test this 240mm capability that they have and to secure a record, it's shown like this.

[Anchor]
Lastly, let me ask you one more briefly. Considering the invitation to the Victory Day, what do you think about the possibility of Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia?

[Hongmin]
I think it's possible. Even so, it's a little hard to see it like this, with a 50% or more possibility, so-called a high probability. Because it is unclear how President Trump will approach North Korea and Russia after the inauguration of the Trump administration.

Although many predictions have been made so far, it is not known whether such a forward-looking attitude can actually be developed, so it will affect the situation in Russia, or whether there will be a major shift in North Korea's approach. Therefore, it may be thought that showing North Korea and Russia's close ties in advance in time for the launch of the Trump administration may increase the risk. Therefore, if we wait and see how the Trump administration is implementing its policy toward Russia and how to come up with a solution to Ukraine, and then if North Korea and Russia say they need to emphasize closer ties to pressure the U.S., it is likely to be a surprise, but it may be a bit premature to see it on the premise that we will meet too much first.

[Anchor]
The variable North Korea seems to be growing in the Ukraine-Russia war. Let's stop here. I was a senior researcher at the Hongmin Institute for Unification. Thank you.

[Hongmin]
Thank you.