"Electric cars will sell more than mine in China next year"...an inflection point of automobile history

2024.12.27. AM 10:46
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Electric vehicles are expected to outpace internal combustion locomotives in new car sales in China next year.

The British daily Financial Times (FT) reported on the 26th local time based on the prospects of four global investment banks (IBs) and consulting firms.

"This is a historic inflection point where the world's largest automobile market is several years ahead of its Western competitors," he said.

According to reports, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China, including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), are expected to exceed 12 million units next year, up about 20% from this year.

Sales of internal combustion locomotives were expected to fall by more than 10% to less than 11 million units.

Compared to 2022, electric vehicles will increase by 100%, and internal combustion locomotives will see sales plummet by about 30%.

If this outlook materializes, it will achieve the official goal of the Chinese government a decade earlier, which has set out to "achieve 50% by 2035.

The electric vehicle market in China has grown nearly 40% this year from last year.

In the United States and Europe, on the other hand, growth in electric vehicle sales has slowed due to rising uncertainties over subsidies and increased protectionism against Chinese imports.

Obert Liu, head of Asia-Pacific Renewable Energy Research at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, interpreted China's electric vehicle milestone as a sign that it has succeeded in developing domestic technologies and securing global supply chains for key resources in electric vehicles and batteries, and analyzed that production costs have been drastically reduced and consumer prices have fallen as the industry has expanded.

"They want to electrify everything," he said. "No country is close to China."

The rapid growth of the electric vehicle market in China means that automakers such as Germany, Japan, and the United States are under threat.

The market share of foreign-brand cars in China has fallen from 64% in 2020 to 37% this year.

In the process, U.S. automaker General Motors said it had lost more than $5 billion from asset amortization following a restructuring of its Chinese business, while Porsche's holding company also said it would amortize its stake in Volkswagen by up to 20 billion euros.

Japan's Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co., which have been struggling in China, recently announced a merger.

On the other hand, internal competition among Chinese automakers is intensifying.

HSBC said the Chinese automaker plans to roll out about 90 new models in the fourth quarter alone, estimating nearly 90% of its new models to be electric.

"China's domestic EV sector is clearly thriving, but it has faced slowing growth due to oversupply of models, fierce competition and price wars," HSBC analyst Youquanding said. "On the long run, the emergence of the EV giant in China is unstoppable."



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