Eom Kyung-young "Yeouido President" Lee Jae-myung and Lee Hoi-chang resemble.."I need to break through 40% approval rating".

Eom Kyung-young
- Lee Jae-myung, Lee Hoi-chang's shadow...It's seen as difficult to make a 'big name', so
- The Democratic Party of Korea-Lee Jae-myung is overdoing it.It should have been dealt with after the special prosecution law investigation
- It is worth paying attention to Kim Moon-soo, who left politics.Lee Jae-myung is 'dusty'
- Lee Jae-myung's judicial risk re-emerges amid 尹 arrest crisis...It's before the presidential election.

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: January 17, 2025 (Friday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Eom Kyung-young, Director of the Center for Psychiatry in the Era, Yoo Seung-chan, Political Consultant

Yoo Seung-chan
- The power of the people needs innovation at the level of tent headquarters..It's hard to hold 尹 in the presidential election
- The Democratic Party of Korea turns a red light on the early presidential election trend.In terms of a great crisis signal,
- The current national power and the Democratic Party of Korea match? Democratic Party of Korea's chances of winning the presidential election are high
- Lee Jae-myung, judicial risk will be a very big variable.Early May Presidential Election Expected

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆Shinryul: Shinryul's News Head-to-head Match Part 4 begins. We're going to continue the weekly politics match. There are two people, Yoo Seung-chan, a political consultant in the studio, and Um Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times. These two are just showing different opinions, but they're actually close. Following the first part, we will continue with the second part of the weekly politics match. Let's go with the second match. The second match theme, should we give President Yoon the power of the people or throw it away?

◈Strict management: The power of the people has no choice but to carry President Yoon for the time being. It is until the conclusion of the impeachment trial. If it's rejected, we'll keep going together. If it is cited, the presidential election will turn into an early presidential election phase, so I think it's fate that has no choice but to break up to some extent.

◆ Shin Yul: I'm sorry to interrupt you, but can't you interpret the martial law independent counsel law as just a change of direction?

◈Strict management: I really want to say something about the martial law independent counsel law. This is why the Democratic Party is demanding the independent counsel law too hard. Because the investigation is almost over now. So, whether it was a civil war or not, martial law took place in about two to three days. And in people's minds, for example, martial law has been in President Yoon's head for a year. It's an area of thought. It's a mental area. So within two to three days, all martial law happened, and almost all of these were already condemned. So, there are parts where former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and other key civil war missions don't fit well. If you supplement this and then investigate the president of Yoon Suk Yeol, it's all over. If you leave this to me. You can investigate everything perfectly in 30 days. I'm not a law school graduate, but do you know why the Democratic Party of Korea is putting 155 investigators instead of doing 150 days with this? The presidential election is all I have in my head. For example, 150 days is 5 months, right? Anyway, the presidential election will be held in five months at the maximum, and I will use that to tinker with the election. It's not patriotism. What kind of patriotism is this?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: We're talking too much right now.

◈Um Management: I'm sorry. I'm a little upset.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Since I said I'm going to carry you, I have to tell you that I'm throwing it away, but we have similar thoughts. I'll keep walking the tightrope anyway. It is not easy to throw away, but it can't be dragged away, because enthusiastic supporters are gathered in the square. I can't even carry it with me. Because elections, for example, would be reassuring if we had 20% to 30% rigid supporters. But people who have done elections know. You can't win the election with 30%. In order to win the election, I have no choice but to do something to win the election if I go into the presidential election after being an impeachment trial anyway, so can I do the election while keeping the person arrested as the head of the rebellion? Although he can get the support of his fierce supporters, he will not go down that path when he is sure to lose the election in the square. There must be a lot of efforts to win the election, but isn't it just that now the demands of the square are strong and the National Power Party members receive enormous texts?

◆ Shin Yul: It's coming a lot.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I can't do it openly because I'm under a lot of pressure, but as Director Um Kyung-young said earlier, if I am fired, I will start to differentiate or break up in earnest from then on. If it is rejected, of course, it will continue. The government keeps going. So, national power is likely to go to a dual strategy for the time being. There is a possibility of defending the Democratic Party of Korea's representative Lee Jae-myung's judicial risk by attacking martial law and civil war cases while he has no choice but to investigate and admit them. But I have this thought. If the power of the people is so different from 2017 in this presidential election, the Democratic Party's approval rating is not coming out too much. A recent poll shows that the fear and fear of 180 plus Lee Jae-myung, which I always talk about, is much greater than I thought. But apparently, from the standpoint of the people's power, I don't think it's an atmosphere where people can pop champagne or anything because of this. In any case, efforts should be made to expand midway, but in order to expand midway, the power of the people now needs innovation at the level of a tent party. I think that kind of effort is necessary. That's why it would be a little hard for me to run for president with President Yoon in my arms. Look at it like this.

◆Shin Yul: We can talk about the poll all at once, so feel free to say it.

◈Eom Management: CEO Yoo Seung-chan said he is a fierce supporter. The expression is a word that insults President Yoon or conservative people who support the power of the people. So I'd like to ask for some modifications. Now I think it's similar to the Democratic Party's supporters and the people's power supporters. Recently, some opinion polls have been over-collected, but why is it over-collected? It's because I don't like Lee Jae-myung or the Democratic Party. On that point, a considerable number of people support the power of the people and give a favorable evaluation to the President of Yoon Suk Yeol. I'm looking at it like this. Rather, I would like to tell Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party that the shadow of Lee Hoi-chang is shining. Do you know what Lee Jae-myung's nickname is? Recently?

◆ Shin Yul: I don't know.

◈Um management: You're the president of Yeouido. But in the past, there was a president of Yeouido. 23 years ago, in 2002, President Lee Hoi-chang was the president of Yeouido. But he's been in first place for exactly five years. I lost one day on Election Day. But in fact, at that time, President Lee Hoi-chang's approval rating was usually about 37%. However, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is also on a downward trend starting at about 37%. So, I think Lee Hoi-chang's shadow is shining on Lee Jae-myung. I can tell you this. As such, there is widespread rejection of representative Lee Jae-myung, I think so. So, I think there is a growing possibility that this election will not flow, saying that the president is Lee Jae-myung anyway.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Even in the power of the people, there is a strong support base. The Democratic Party also has a strong base of supporters. We witnessed it.

◈Strict management: So if we say we're a fierce supporter, we should look at 5% to this, right?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: You can't look at it like that. There's the Democratic Party. But I think that's my freedom of expression.

◆ Shinryul: Unless it's an expression such as far-right or far-left.

◈Strict management: That's why I was going to revise it.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: In this impeachment, anyway, when the Gallup investigation came out, Gallup came out with 39% of the people's power and 36% of the Democratic Party. It was similar on NBS. And Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is 31%. Overall, it has been downgraded. So it's been downgraded overall, so as I said earlier, I think the sentiment of the Democratic Party of Korea is really unimaginable, especially in the face of impeachment of the president. When President Park Geun Hye was impeached.

◆ Shin Yul: The recovery was quite slow.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: At that time, the ruling party's approval rating was 12%.

◆ Shin Yul: Thirteen percent.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Of course, it is a little difficult to simply compare because there were many things, including the Bareun Party and the People's Party, but the people's power is outpacing in terms of approval ratings. Even if you consider the task sampling, you have to admit it as a tendency. That's why I got a red light on the Democratic Party, too. I think the red light has also been turned on in the early presidential election trend. This is the impeachment process, and if the impeachment trial is cited, I think there will be some adjustments. So I think there will be some adjustments, but even so, in my current feeling, of course, there is a 99% chance that Chairman Lee Jae-myung will become the Democratic Party candidate. Representative Lee Jae-myung has a 75% chance of becoming president. It's becoming quite a risky situation and what's more worrisome is that it's not trending well. And if you look at the Democratic Party right now. What I describe the Democratic Party as is like a giant hedgehog in an iron armor. It not only blocks all external opinions, but also aggressively blocks them, but it becomes a one-way system like this. There was talk about the president of Yeouido, but you can do it, but the election. If you don't expand, you can't win. I need a story to expand. This story should be interesting, but if you think about the Democratic Party, look at the political schedule going forward. Don't you think it won't be a big hit? Because there is such a clear result waiting for it, and the atmosphere inside continues to be rigid. So when I look at the Democratic Congress, I can only think of two words. Impeachment, special counsel. Other stories are not being delivered to the people. For the middle-class people, this situation should be seen as a great signal of crisis.

◈Eom Management: The comparison I made with CEO Lee Hoi-chang earlier has many similarities in many ways. So, as you said, isn't it a one-way system? At that time, President Lee Hoi-chang also lost the 1997 election and established a one-way system in the 2000 general election. And as I said earlier, the president of Yeouido and the unfavorable rating were very high. Representative Lee Hoi-chang said, "At the time of President Lee Hoi-chang, there was a kind of judicial risk of corruption in the military service of his two sons. The unfavorable rating associated with this was also very high. These things are similar in many ways. In a way, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating could peak in December and early January. So I think if we don't get through 40%, we could be in a great crisis.

◆ Shin Yul: Why is it December or January?

◈Strict management: Right after martial law. So this was actually the case in the past. In the past, eight years ago, President Moon Jae In was injured in January and remained at the top of the list. However, representative Lee Jae-myung's martial law situation took place while he remained at the top of the list, and his approval rating rose at that time, but is now on a downward trend. So as CEO Yoo knows well, the polls are graphs. The flow. So, it's very important how to adjust the bending and turn it up again, but the Democratic Party of Korea and Chairman Lee Jae-myung are overreacting right now. So, the independent counsel law should deal with the investigation as soon as possible, but isn't it that Kim Gun-hee is trying to drag it because of her greed for early presidential election and is on the verge of collapse? Nevertheless, when Kim Gun-hee is putting out the Special Prosecutor Act again and the generals are in prison, they are saying they will go to prison and hold a hearing. How can this be interpreted as patriotism? What on earth? Say something.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: This is why the Democratic Party of Korea said that the president was arrested, Kim Gun-hee.

◆Mystery: There's a lot of talk about going overboard.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: That's too much. That's too much. That's how the inside of the Democratic Party of Korea is now competing for clarity, and I think the culture itself is formed like this. But if I don't control this, I think there will be a big crisis.

◆Mystery: Who is this competition for clarity?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Who.

◆ Synthesis: I see.

◈Strict management: It's not a country, is it?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: But it's me after the impeachment trial. Then the power of the people begins to show. However, the power of the people is usually compared to the other when it comes to elections. If the power of the people is arrested after the president was impeached and arrested on charges of rebellion, but they do not innovate or change, then the Democratic Party of Korea has no choice but to be an option. Our political situation now has a very uncomfortable risk that there is no third option. So, if you said earlier that it could be Lee Hoi-chang, there is a possibility that it will happen when the power of the people really changes itself beyond the tent party. If the power of the people in the current state and the Democratic Party in the current state are attached. I think then the Democratic Party has a much better chance of winning the presidential election.

◈Extreme Management: Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo has been on the rise recently. But I think it's worth paying attention to that point. In the case of Minister Kim Moon-soo, I think the possibility of becoming a presidential candidate for the People's Power in terms of four leading indicators is increasing. The four leading indicators I consider important are the first Daegu-Gyeongbuk approval rating, followed by the people in their 60s and older, and the conservative approval rating in terms of ideological orientation. In this regard, it is almost twice as far ahead of Daegu Mayor Hong Joon Pyo, former CEO Han Dong-hoon, and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who are in second place. From these four leading indicators. This means that Minister Kim Moon-soo's approval rating will continue to rise until the impeachment trial is over. So the same goes for the Democratic Party. 40 to 50 approval ratings and Honam approval ratings. These are the leading indicators. However, some people say a lot about Minister Kim Moon-soo because he's so angry. So I think it's a little different. Of course, this person moved from the left to the right. But first of all, I'm very innocent. There is no politician who doesn't have a penny of wealth and doesn't come out of Korea because he dusts off.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: There is. You can't say that you don't have any.

◈Extreme management: There are few, but I want to say that Minister Kim Moon-soo is the only one.

◆ Shin Yul: Take the subway when you get off work.

◈Extreme management: That's right. And this person still has a lot of things like this with a rental apartment. Compare with Lee Jae-myung. I called Lee Jae-myung a filth tea by Rep. Lee Joon-seok. I don't want to demean myself that much, but I'm dusty anyway. But Minister Kim Moon-soo is very clean. And these people are very simple. Minister Kim Moon-soo is, for example, a new person. I've been away from politics for a while. For more than 10 years.

◆ Shin Yul: Do you have those advantages?

◈Strict management: That's right. So it's getting new light, but I think it's just that it's far-right.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I don't look at it from that perspective. When I become an impeachment judge and enter the presidential election phase, that's what the primary is after all. The primary is the competitiveness of the main race. Who has the competitive edge in the finals? Then we'll have a one-on-one virtual match. In any case, the poll has almost confirmed Lee Jae-myung, so I don't think I can conclude that the race will be decided by the survey on who will be competitive when Lee Jae-myung is the candidate. I think that the members of the People's Power Party will also choose the primary process based on such competitiveness in the main election.

◆ Shin Yul: But how do you think Lee Jae-myung's violation of the Public Official Election Act will speed up?

◈Um management: That's what I think. Because as I told you briefly at the beginning, President Yoon Suk Yeol has been arrested, and if an arrest warrant is cited this time, won't he be arrested? However, in this process, one of the things that stands out to me is that the judicial risk against representative Lee Jae-myung is being repeated again. So, President Yoon became like that, and then CEO Lee Jae-myung, what are you? Public opinion is rapidly spreading. So I think the results of the second trial will be released at least by March in the case of the election law. In addition to that, for example, the perjury teacher issue was acquitted in the first trial, but there is a possibility of a second trial, and other relatively simple issues or investigations have been conducted, so wouldn't there be more than one trial regarding remittance to North Korea and corporate credit card issues? If you don't do that. Even if representative Lee Jae-myung becomes president later, the people cannot admit it. I can't go to the front of Korea. So I think that the court must put these things out in March.

◆ Shin Yul: I'm doing this now, but you said 99% earlier. in the party

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I think Lee Jae-myung will be the candidate in the Democratic Party regardless of judicial risk. And I think the Constitutional Court's ruling is the last three seconds, but there is a possibility that the Constitutional Court's impeachment trial or representative Lee Jae-myung's second trial of the election law will be similar, although there may be some time difference. It is difficult not to do so. Especially in the case of the election law, is the perjury teacher now innocent in the first trial? There would also be no obvious reason for the appeal to be so far behind. Because of this, it will be a very big variable in the presidential election process.

◆ Shin Yul: So do you expect it to be around May of the presidential election? What if there's an early presidential election?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I think it's around early May.

◈Extreme management: Either May or June.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I don't think it'll be pushed that far.

◆ Shin Yul: May or June. But will there be a Supreme Court ruling within that?

◈Strict management: It doesn't come out to the Supreme Court, but the second trial. In the case of election law, the second trial.

◆ Shinryul: Then isn't that the middle?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: It's not half-hearted, but Lee Jae-myung will run in the presidential election. That's the situation. What kind of judgment will be made by the people in such a situation?

◆ Shin Yul: I see. Let me repeat the poll we talked about today. Four institutions, Embrain Public, Case That Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research, conducted a telephone interview survey of 1,005 men and women aged 18 or older nationwide from January 13 to 15, 2025. There's a survey of Gallup Korea announced today. This is a poll of 1,001 men and women aged 18 or older nationwide from January 14th to 16th. All of these surveys can be found on the website of the Central Election Poll Review Committee. Let's stop here today. Thank you. So far, I have been with two political consultants, Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times, and Yoo Seung-chan.