"Western, isn't it a Russian duke who damaged the Baltic seabed cable?"

Source: Yonhap News

A series of Baltic undersea cable damage in recent months is likely to be a maritime accident, not a deliberate Russian sabotage.

The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 19th local time, citing multiple U.S. and European intelligence officials, that the cause of a series of Baltic submarine cable damage is an accident.

According to the paper, an investigation involving security agencies from the U.S. and six European countries found no indication that the damage to the submarine cable was deliberately caused or was directed by Russia.

Instead, after analyzing communication interception and various confidential information, it was analyzed that it was likely that the accident occurred when inexperienced sailors boarded the ship that was not properly maintained.

U.S. officials pointed out that it was likely an accident and that there was insufficient evidence to suggest Russia was involved, while two other European intelligence officials agreed with the U.S. assessment.

The Baltic Sea submarine cable damage has occurred three times in the last 18 months.

In December last year, undersea cables connecting Finland and Estonia were damaged, and in November, undersea cables from Finland to Germany and cables connecting Lithuania and the Swedish island of Gotland were cut.

In October 2023, undersea gas pipelines and communication cables connecting Finland and Estonia were also damaged.

In the West, the prevailing view was that such a series of events were Russian maneuvers to prevent support for Ukraine.

The timing of the incident also added to this suspicion.

The incidents in November and December last year come at a time when the Baltic states are accelerating efforts to separate their power grids from Russia.

As a result, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has also stepped up surveillance to deter destructive operations targeting member countries' undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

However, despite the tentative conclusion that there is a high possibility of an accident, there are still opinions that refute this.

Pekka Torberry, the Finnish representative of the European Parliament, who was the head of the Finnish military intelligence agency, called it a "typical hybrid operation" by Moscow.

Hybrid tactics refer to the mobilization of non-military means such as cyber terrorism, information warfare, and sabotage of infrastructure.

"The most important thing in the hybrid operation is the denial of the relevant facts," he said, criticizing Russia for concluding that it was an accident, although it may not have left evidence that could be admitted in court.

Mike Plunkett, a naval expert at security research firm Jane's, pointed out that the chance of three anchor-falling accidents in the Baltic region after 2023 is very small, if not 0%.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eric Ciaramela said the submarine cable cutting incident was "highly likely a random accident," but added, "It is difficult to rule out the possibility of organized operations at a time when Russian intelligence is trying to assassinate German business executives and set factories across Europe on fire."

Finnish intelligence also agrees with Western judgment that the December incident appeared to be an accident, but remains cautious that it is difficult to rule out Russia's role completely.

"The investigation is still ongoing and it is too early to reach a final conclusion," said a spokesperson for Finland's National Bureau of Investigation, which is leading the investigation of Eagle S, which was involved in the December incident.