Prospects for South Korean government to renegotiate defense cost sharing
Expect huge pain in renegotiation due to large differences in amount
'top-down' negotiations, but impossible due to impeachment.
U.S. President Trump is known to prefer a so-called "top-down" approach that directly decides major issues.
In the future, it is expected to put pressure on South Korea by renegotiating the defense cost share, but I am concerned that the government will be able to respond properly due to the aftermath of martial law.
Reporter Lee Jong-gu reports.
[Reporter]
President Trump had two summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to directly negotiate the North Korean nuclear issue during his first term in office.
[Donald Trump / U.S. President (June 2018): We will begin the process of denuclearizing North Korea. I believe Chairman Kim will begin denuclearization virtually immediately. I've already expressed my intention to do that.
Although the "Hanoi No Deal" did not produce results, it is an example of Trump's "top-down" approach to directly discuss major diplomatic issues.
President Trump is likely to directly engage in negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons program in the second administration.
This is because he still shows off his friendship with Chairman Kim Jong-un and shows confidence in solving the North Korean nuclear issue.
At the same time, the prevailing observation is that the South Korean government will demand renegotiation of the USFK's contribution to defense costs.
Although the government rushed to reach a contribution agreement with the Biden administration by 2030, President Trump publicly pointed out that it was an amount he didn't like when he was a candidate.
[Donald Trump / When he was presidential candidate (October last year): If I had been there, I would have paid $10 billion (W14.5 trillion) a year. It's because Korea is a "money machine."
Based on the current agreement, the South Korea-U.S. defense cost share next year is about one-tenth of the level Trump wants, so if renegotiations occur, it is expected to cause tremendous pain.
In the end, it seems that there will be more situations where we will have to negotiate with Trump in terms of diplomacy and security, and the problem is the domestic situation.
The president has been arrested, and the prime minister is suspended from office, so it is not easy to fill the leadership gap right now.
[Victor Cha / Chair of the U.S. Institute for Strategic and International Studies Korea: (Korea's) leadership vacuum is a big problem. Everything that can be done by the foreign minister or the head of the national security office will not work in the Trump administration.]
Attention is focusing on how the government can resolve concerns that domestic political instability caused by martial law and impeachment could adversely affect Korea-U.S. relations.
I'm YTN Lee Jong-gu.
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