Min Jung-hoon, "Trump's quick move, preparing for a very fast lame duck."

[YTN Radio News Fighting Youngsoo Kim]

□ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (07:15-09:00)
□ Broadcast date and time: January 21, 2025 (Tue)
□ Host: Youngsoo Kim Anchor
□ Performers: Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of American Research Department at the National Diplomatic Institute {
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

[Please clarify that this is the interview content of YTN Radio <News Fighting>]]

◆ Youngsoo Kim Anchor (Youngsoo Kim): Let's move on to the issue interview. I'm connected by phone to Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the American Research Department of the National Diplomatic Institute. You're out, right?

◇ Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of American Research at the National Diplomatic Institute (hereinafter referred to as Min Jeong-hoon): Yes, hello.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Yes, hello. We've met a lot on TV, but it's our first time meeting you on the radio. Professor Yoon, did you see President Trump's inauguration today? Yes, right. Yes, I think President Trump's status has changed a lot from the first term.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: That's right. Even if you look at my personal appearance, 8 years ago, I won an unexpected victory without being prepared, so everything seemed unfamiliar and I didn't have enough time. Today, I have 4 years of experience and you've had an inauguration ceremony, so I'm very relaxed, and the message is very gentle and emphasizes the message of unity. I think I've shown a lot of experience know-how.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Today's inauguration was held indoors. I heard it was because the weather was so cold. What did you think?

◇ Min Jeong-hun: That's right. It's very unusual. Anyway, the inauguration ceremony of the U.S. president is a great celebration and a very important national event. As it is well known, it is held outdoors in front of the U.S. Capitol, and it was so cold that it was changed to indoors, so about 2,000 important people are on the podium, but about 200,000 people attended the inauguration ceremony. This time, the number of people decreased a lot because we were doing it indoors.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: And that's why only about 800 people can enter, and we can rent the facility about 1.3kg next to it, but the facility can only swim in about 20,000 people, so even after receiving the ticket, about 200,000 people can't attend, so I think it's an inevitable choice considering the cold weather.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Let me ask you a few questions, starting with the Korea-U.S. relationship since President Yoon Trump took office. You must have heard some of President Trump's inauguration speeches today. What was the most impressive part?

◇ Min Jung-hoon: So the most impressive thing was about two things. The Golden Age. The United States has said that the golden age has begun again. So, I'm going to put America first and bring out America's heyday. To this end, we will now reinvigorate America First. I said this, and now I will change the Gulf of Mexico, which has been controversial by reaffirming the hegemony of the Americas, which is the basis of that U.S. priority, to the United States alone and regain Panama or operational control. And it's peace through power, and now it's peace through power, and I'm not going to play the role of a police officer around the world, so I've been interested in how the two things, Gold Nage and America First, will be combined to show America over the next four years.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. You told me that I looked more relaxed than I did during the 1st season. In the past, I used a lot of harsh expressions during the 1st generation. Although it has changed a little recently, the expression was not what we think of as the president of the United States.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: That's right. I think that the standard has been divided a lot on that part because President Trump has destroyed a lot of the typical American president's speech and remarks. Nevertheless, if you look at it eight years ago, they were in a very American crisis internally and externally, writing about genocide, looting, and so on. And he's going to make a strong, complete revamp of the United States. If there were a lot of strong and straight expressions because of this kind of talk, the basic expression like cider hasn't changed, but the language has been refined a lot. And this time, we talked a lot about integration and future vision prosperity, so I can tell you that it has eased a lot compared to 8 years ago.
◆ Youngsoo Kim: I heard that you also issued a message of unity, what is it about?

◇ Min Jeong-hun: So now the most interesting thing about the U.S. foreign policy was that. So, don't you release a Swedish man in Gaza and say it's his credit? And then, in terms of foreign policy, I talk about peacemaker Peace Baker and unity Unifire. So, there is that part in internal politics now, but internal politics is so polarized that I will become a president who avoids war and leads global peace and prosperity integration in foreign policy rather than that part. Of course, there is America First on the basis of that, but it was very interesting because it showed that.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. Trump's second-term government keyword seen in his inauguration speech, as you said earlier, has also declared a golden age story and an American-first policy. I'm worried about how our country should respond right now. How should I respond?

◇ Min Jeong-hun: So this time, the United States is a priority, but the Lee Ki administration, which is related to America First, has re-entered the White House and then declared six major policy agendas. And we talked about lowering inflation internally and lowering the cost of living, and we talked about six other things, like tax cuts for American workers and peace and energy patterns through power, and among them, tax cuts for American workers, peace through power and energy hegemony, which can directly influence us. Also, for tax cuts for American workers, tariffs are used to burden foreign companies and their countries.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: That's why we're not going to be able to secure our economy in some of these aggressive U.S. protectionist measures in the economic and trade sectors, and we're going to have fossil fuel energy rather than eco-friendly energy in relation to energy hegemony, and in the meantime, we're going to give the Biden administration subsidies for eco-friendly energy, electric vehicle subsidies, solar subsidies, wind power, and so on, and so on, we're going to reduce and discard them, and we're going to reinvigorate traditional fossil fuels and maintain stable energy prices. So, there is a part of how we can get out of this because our eco-friendly businesses that tried to enter the U.S. market through large-scale investment in the U.S. can suffer damage.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: Even in the case of peace through power, we will maintain the hegemony of the United States while maintaining its strongest military without acting as a global police officer and causing war. Because of this, it should serve as a more active contribution to our allies. This also raises the possibility of renegotiating defense contributions, so the ROK-U.S. alliance will remain solid in other areas of diplomacy, security and economy, and trade, but I think it is inevitable that the United States, which has changed, will deal with us in various fields.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: There are so many pending issues with Korea regarding the Trump administration's foreign economic policy. First of all, this tariff part. Korea's export trade surplus with the U.S. is large, and tariffs are expected to be imposed on Korean exports.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: There's a possibility. That's why the focus is on how our companies and the government will be suspended from the application of universal tariffs that Trump is talking about. Therefore, I think it is necessary to accept it as a fait accompli to impose universal standard tariffs or selective high-rate tariffs. So what we can do is get out of it when tariff rates rise like that and then that aggressive trade policy unfolds, so I think we'll need to make an effort to get a reprieve from countries and items that are subject to those high tariffs, emphasizing the alliance and the economic and technical contributions that we can make.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. Then President Trump was like that during the first administration. Recently, it was like that during the presidential election, and I'm going to make all the products in the United States. So, it is said that 10 to 20% tariffs are imposed on imported goods. So in the end, in order to sell things in the United States, you have to build a factory in the United States and produce it in the United States.

◇ Min Jeong-hun: That's right. But that's symbolic. As you know well, how would you make all the items in the United States? That's especially difficult, so if you build and expand high-tech manufacturing facilities in the U.S., which is the future food industry, and make fish products in the U.S., high-quality jobs in the U.S. will be created and competitive in response to certain U.S. corporate manufacturing industries. In that regard, it will be a challenge how we will further pioneer the U.S. market and keep it. Ultimately, as you said, whether using tariffs or subsidizing as in the Biden administration, having and creating advanced manufacturing facilities in the United States will not change for a while, so it seems essential for the Trump administration to respond to that.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: And I pledged to impose a 60% tariff on China in particular. At the same time, the intention is to resolve the U.S. trade deficit, what do you think?

◇ Min Jung-hoon: Yes, the Trump administration will decide whether to put 60% or 100% or 20%, but the U.S. is the No. 1 country in the trade deficit with China. I think China's efforts to reduce it will be visible from the beginning of its inauguration. So, what kind of push and pull with China to what extent will they impose high tariffs, but if you look at President Trump's negotiation style, he will put something down and impose high tariffs. I'm a type of person who slowly compromises negotiations under pressure, so if I really want 60%, I'll impose at least 200%. I think there will be a lot of confusion because there is a possibility of reducing this kind of bluff.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: But the first country Trump targeted when he took office for the second time. It was Canada and Mexico. But in the case of the two countries, they have been in economic solidarity with each other for a long time as naphtha, so why did they target these two countries?

◇ Min Jung-hoon: When we look at the strategic interests of the United States, we talk about checking China and securing influence in Europe, and basically the most important region for the United States is the Americas. So the most important strategic interest is to bring stability and prosperity to the continent where they live. In that sense, Canada and Mexico are the closest neighboring countries and one of the most economically integrated powers, so they are completely influencing social, economic, political, and cultural aspects. So what Trump said is that some goods come in from Canada or Mexico, that the U.S. is not treated properly for the part where the proceeds come in, and there are parts where drugs flow in, and parts where they flow into illegal factors.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: I think that Trump's tough immigration control policy, and in the United States, Canada and Mexico are the countries that have the most direct impact on trade policy, so I think they sent a strong message on that part first. So, I don't think it's special for the U.S. to maintain and expand its influence on North, Central, and South America because it's not just during Trump, but because it's a strategic interest that almost every U.S. administration has sustained.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. And in the case of Canada, they even said, "Why don't we become the 51st state?" Also, how can I publicly announce that I want to transfer to Greenland and see it?

◇ Min Jeong-hun: So Greenland is right on top of the Americas. So it's right on top of the Americas and it's actually closer to Europe or if you look at it closer to the Americas, it's closer to the United States than it is to Alaska. And that's why if you look at the strategic interests of Holland, traditionally Asia is now more important to the United States, but traditionally Europe is important. And Russia is the enemy of a traditional enemy. So the shortest distance for a ballistic missile launched from Russia to reach a certain continental United States is over Greenland. So, if you look at the strategic benefits, if the United States has a certain radar base in Holland or a missile banner, then it's good to respond to any threat from any Russia.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: And as you know, because of the vast deposits of citri in its natural resources and the melting due to climate change, the utilization has increased, and the possibility of using the Arctic route has increased due to climate change, so I think it's natural for President Trump to drool because of the huge economic interest.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: But is it possible to transfer? But

◇ Min Jung-hoon: It's not possible to transfer. I don't think that's possible in the 21st century, but if you look closely, let's make a compromise in Denmark already.
◆ Youngsoo Kim: Because it's Danish territory.

◇ Min Jeong-hun: It's coming out. The U.S. is so strong and some NATO member that Denmark cannot ignore the U.S. position, so the possibility of adding more U.S. radar bases and the possibility of cooperating with the U.S. in developing any history or resources is quietly in contact with the U.S. and making compromises, so if you look at that, Trump's bluffing will not incorporate it, but it is likely to have a significant effect.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Yes, we have companies. Right now, many large Korean companies are building factories in the United States, so what should our companies do?

◇ Min Jung-hoon: So it will be inevitable for our companies to build manufacturing facilities in the United States considering the symbolism of the U.S. market. Nevertheless, unlike the Trump Biden administration, the Trump administration is likely to be stingy about subsidies and treating them like American companies if they build any production facilities in the United States. That's why it's better for us not to have that policy direction at all, but because the U.S. administration now has its limits, we need to strengthen lobbying for U.S. domestic political actors so that we can at least be included in those guidelines when they are reduced and changed.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: So I think it's necessary to use some governors and some lawmakers in the state where we have new production facilities to emphasize and pressure how much Korean companies are contributing to the local economy of the United States and why they should benefit.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. Yes, President Trump said he would scrap the stupid Biden policy when he took office, but looking at this trade policy alone, there were many evaluations that President Biden was also based on protectionism. However, there are many observations that Trump will become stronger when he returns. Look at it like that.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: I think that's the basis. That stupid Biden thing is to build the political cause of the policy that he's going to do for four years now. So, during the Biden administration, the United States wasn't operating properly, so it was a very dark time and I was wrong. While talking about it in his inauguration speech, I also saw President Biden's face getting a little darker. It's a political cause. So the Biden administration has been protectionist in traditional trade, but it's been much more flexible in terms of using tariffs than it was in Trump. I was flexible.

◇ Min Jung-hoon: But now, in the Trump crisis, it will be strengthened not only because of the active use of tariffs to pursue profits in any trade sector, but also because the U.S. is going to pursue them in terms of diplomacy and security. As you know well in the high-tech sector, the Biden administration has done deal-taking and blocked China's current access to high-tech sectors, such as semiconductors and AI, which is likely to expand. So I'll do selective decoupling. I'm going to cut ties with China. As we are talking about this, I think that the trade policy, which has become much stronger and stronger in that area, will be implemented.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: I see. President Trump vowed to raise the defense cost of the U.S. Forces Korea more than 10 times. How do you see the possibility of it becoming a reality?

◇ Min Jung-hoon: They say they increase it more than 10 times, but there is no such item to upload. There's no real possibility of increasing it 10 times. So, it's impossible to increase it 9 times and 10 times according to the items because the only items we have, whether it's our people or our workers who work on the base, such as wages, facility expenses, military construction expenses, etc. That's why the first Trump administration said let's increase the item and establish a new one, but our diplomatic authorities didn't accept it. I think that the principle remains unchanged, so a slight increase may be inevitable if any overseas negotiation request comes in, but I don't think that will happen because we have no reason, no room, and no principle to pay 10 times as President Trump claims.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Yes, I think I have to ask you one last question. President Trump is only going to do it for four years this time. That's right. Some people say that lame-duck fans might come soon. How do you see it?

◇ Min Jeong-hun: Yes. There's a lot of possibility. The U.S. is in its second term because it is a four-year two-term system, so in the case of the president who is running for re-election, the ruling party loses a lot of seats in the midterm elections in most countries that are taking the presidential system during the midterm elections. At the same time, the president who was re-elected for re-election was three terms as the political power was declining, so after the midterm elections, attention is now focused on who will be the next president. So now that interest in the president who will leave the White House is decreasing, and the political momentum for the main agenda pursued by the president is also decreasing, I think that the Trump administration's really quick policy moves take into account that political reality.

◆ Youngsoo Kim: Yes, sir. That's all for today's talk. Thank you very much. I was with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor at the National Diplomatic Institute. Thank you.

◇ Min Jeong-hun: Yes, thank you.