Trump, who was impeached twice during the first term, sees Korea as 'impeachment politics' like this.

[News FM Lee Ik-seon Choi Soo-young Issue & People]

□ Broadcast date and time: January 21, 2025 (Tue)
□ Host: Lee Ik-seon, Choi Soo-young
□ Starring: Kook Seung-min, professor of political science at Michigan State University

<National Seung-min, professor of political science at Michigan State University>
-60% of Americans are optimistic for four years, the first 'honeymoon' with Trump
- Trump was impeached twice in the first term, impeachment = political retaliation.The impeachment of the 尹 seems to be viewed from that perspective
- Trump's second term in the 'acting system' is fortunate in the midst of misfortune.We will focus all our efforts on domestic issues such as 'exportation of illegal immigrants' rather than foreign countries in the first year
- Trump's top foreign policy priority is 'tariff'...Korean companies should find 'what' to trade with Trump, including 'tariff exceptions'
- None of the 100 executive orders signed by Trump are 'tariffs'
- Trump bans TikTok? Something to think about...TikTok algorithm in favor of Trump?

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.


◇ Lee Ik-seon: With the inauguration of President Trump, the second Trump administration has officially been launched. Let's talk with Professor Kook Seung-min of the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. I'm on the phone. Hello, professor.

★ Kook Seung-min, professor of political science at Michigan State University (hereinafter referred to as Kook Seung-min): Hello.

◆ Choi Soo-young: So President Trump's inauguration was held in Washington, DC at 2 a.m. today. I understand that the professor also watched. What impressed you the most about the inauguration?

★ Kook Seung-min: I was impressed by the fact that the inauguration ceremony was more similar to the inauguration ceremony in 2017. Despite some changes in the tone of the speech and such subtle things, the contents of the inaugural speech had many similar aspects. In a way, it's natural because Trump is a person who doesn't change much, especially if you look at the remarks made after the inauguration, you can see that they haven't really changed in terms of pardoning those involved in the January 6th Capitol riot and showing affection for them. There is only one thing that has changed, but if you look at the U.S. as a whole, there seems to be a lot of things that have changed. Looking at the placement of the inauguration, it seems to be a big change in some ways that the CEOs of U.S. tech companies were placed before the cabinet, that the mainstream U.S. society recognized Trump, and that there was no resistance from Democrats and their supporters compared to eight years ago.

◆ Choi Soo-young: In his inaugural address, he emphasized America First several times. I wonder how you liked it.

★ Kook Seung-min: Some new things came out. First of all, I said I would change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the United States and bring back the Panama Canal, but these two stories were interesting because they showed that Trump was really interested in the issue, not this idea-level story during the transition. Also, it was interesting to see that he was a real estate agent, but it seemed to show his true face. Another interesting thing was that they said they would pick an American flag on Mars, but I thought this might show Elon Musk's influence. Finally, it was interesting that there was little talk about tariffs, but the fact that we didn't talk about them even though Trump's biggest concern was tariffs seems to prove that there is still a lot to be set within.

◆ Choi Soo-young: 60% of Americans are optimistic about the next four years in a CBS poll This is the result. Sixty percent are optimistic about four years. It seems very meaningful, especially by age group, young people aged 18 to 29 are optimistic about 67% of the so-called MZ generation. Is there a special reason why young people are responding like this?

★ Kook Seung-min: In a way, what's shown now is the first honeymoon of public opinion about Trump. Eight years ago, in the first Trump period, there was no such honeymoon because the resistance to Trump was very strong. But this time, public opinion is open to Trump and this honeymoon seems to show that Trump is able to push his major policy agenda like this. Also, in the case of young people, I thought it was such an optimism that it would be nice to get out of this inflation because they were the generation hit hardest by inflation.

◇ Lee Ik-seon: In terms of those who attended the inauguration ceremony, there were also interpretations such as "Trump's confidence is visible."

★ Kook Seung-min: What was the biggest controversy in the United States since Trump's inauguration? It was about how big the crowd in attendance was. However, the controversy itself shows that there was such a social atmosphere that people wanted to avoid the inauguration ceremony and how crowded Trump was. In the second period of the inauguration, major U.S. tech companies came and foreign leaders, dubbed far-right, participated. In a way, the participation of Argentina's President Milay and Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who are called far-rights, was very new. Also, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, the presidents of these big tech companies, and Apple's Tim Cook were all present and they were sitting at the front of the inauguration ceremony. In a way, that can be said to be a big difference from the first generation.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Don't you count family business as another characteristic of Trump? Attention is focusing on whether he will leave important posts to his family this term, and his daughter Ivanka and her daughter, who took power in the White House during the first term, declared that they would not join this time, saying politics is a little dark and negative, but instead, the eldest son, Trump Jr., is emerging as a heavyweight?

★ Kook Seung-min: That's right. First of all, officially, there is no Trump family currently serving public office. Instead, Trump Jr.'s influence has grown tremendously. Even if you don't take any public office, your voice is constantly reflected when you make political decisions such as who you will vote for or what kind of speech you will give. Nevertheless, there is no official role and another Trump family member is Laura Trump, the daughter-in-law. This is Eric Trump's wife, who is in charge of the Trump company. Laura Trump is the chairman of the Republican National Committee, but in a way, Trump Jr. and Laura Trump seem to have something to do with politics. However, I don't think I'll see such a situation where I hold public office like the first period.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Let's take another look at what CBS in the United States reported. It is said that Trump made this statement. Everyone calls me chaos, but look at Korea. It was the first official mention of Korea after the martial law incident, and the president was even arrested for impeaching the president of the emergency martial law. How do you rate the chaotic situation in South Korea in the United States as an alliance organization?

★ Kook Seung-min: I'm sure the U.S. is very interested in the situation in Korea. When I look at my colleagues, I think I've never seen them deeply interested in Korean politics.
What is interesting to see in the United States is that through the controversy over election fraud in the 2020 presidential election and the January 6 incident, there is a lot of interest in the democratic crisis and retreat. As a result, I am very interested in the idea that what happened in Korea can happen at any time in the United States, and I think that interest is mixed with the hope that the United States does not experience this.

◇ Interest line: I see. Trump's all calling me chaos but I'll meet him if the impeachment of South Korea is stopped following the words "look at South Korea." This kind of interview has been added. He's the president of Yoon Suk Yeol there, how do you interpret this?

★ Kook Seung-min: President Trump was basically impeached twice in the first term, so there are some views of impeachment as a very negative view of political retaliation. As a result, it seems to be a hint that President Yoon Suk Yeol believes there is some connection in the fact that he was impeached, but it is hard to see that sentence alone. But basically, it's true that there's a great sense of damage to the fact that he's been impeached under control.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Our government has launched the second Trump administration as an acting system following the first Trump administration. The difference from the first period is the agency system. There are concerns about "Korea passing" in which South Korea is excluded from bilateral diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea, as well as whether we can respond very efficiently to Trump's offensive, such as pressure on defense costs. What is your outlook, professor?

★ Kook Seung-min: What I think is fortunate among the misfortunes is... The period of American politics is that the first 100 days and the first year after taking office are more interested in domestic policy than foreign policy. In particular, the illegal immigrant deportation policy that Trump is interested in, the enforcement of it, and the legislation of Trump's policy in Congress are the biggest interests of Washington DC and are expected to be all-out. Even if you choose foreign policy, you will be more interested in Israel, Ukraine, Russia, and China, so I think there will be relatively little interest in Korea in the first year.

◇ Profit line: It's said to be an opportunity to reverse the crisis. Trump has preferred a "top-down method" in which the leaders decide and coordinate their work below. Currently, there is no such saw in Korea, so it may have been a good thing. I bought time to prepare for the negotiations. There are experts who come up with this interpretation, how do you judge it?

★ Kook Seung-min: I don't think it's a good thing or bad thing, but I think the most important issue we need to look at right now is tariffs. In a way, tariffs will be the number one foreign policy that will affect Korea. What's interesting now is that CEOs of major U.S. companies are lying face down on Trump. The reason for this is to get an exception for collective tariffs. Therefore, I think that if Korean companies engage with the Trump White House and pursue their efforts like CEOs of U.S. tech companies in Korea, there will be ways to carry out tariff exceptions. In a way, the government should play a role, but I think there will be many roles that individual companies can play. I think there are still limits to the government's work, but there are still many opportunities to influence U.S. foreign policy because companies can work.

◇ Lee Ik-seon: I think people who are just listening to the show will be curious about who is saying this. Since we are in a telephone interview with Professor Kook Seung-min of the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University and he is currently in the United States, we will let our listeners know that there is a time difference between asking and receiving questions and continue.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Isn't there a lot of political uncertainty? So I wonder how seriously Trump will take our government's voice. There's this kind of talk. In particular, experts around us suggest that we should approach shipbuilding and AI, which Trump is interested in, and if the professor suggests a smart way to deal with this.

★ Kook Seung-min: Trump just had a Q&A session with reporters in his office. I said something interesting there, but he visited Saudi Arabia a little early in his first term. But the reason was that Saudi Arabia promised to purchase a large number of U.S. exports. In itself, Trump is very interested in such a deal, and if South Korea shows any sign of sincerity to the U.S. or the Trump administration, it is expected that South Korea will be able to accept as many policies as it wants, so I think it will be important to approach it carefully considering how to deal with it and what Trump wants.

◇ Interest Line: Executive orders and measures are pouring in as announced in advance that 'I will issue 100 executive orders' as soon as I take office. Are there any particular executive orders or measures that we should pay attention to?

★ Kook Seung-min: I think what's more important is what you didn't do than what administrative decree you signed. Because I've done it so many times. There were not many executive orders for tariffs. Because even though tariffs are Trump's first interest, the fact that he failed to sign them still shows that there is a very high possibility of a change in this policy. That's why it seems that the Korean government and companies can have an influence. It seems very important for both the government and businesses to work hard to contact the Trump administration.

◆ Choi Soo-young: What the Biden administration has been working on over the past four years is the eco-friendly economic growth policy. He emphasized that he would also abolish the Green New Deal. Trump repealed the Green New Deal and withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. How far do you think the denial of the former government will go?

★ Kook Seung-min: First of all, the first executive order I signed today was to cancel about 80 executive orders from the Biden administration. It seems that the basic direction is to cancel many of the Biden administration's policies, and yet eco-friendly policies seem to be more complicated. Because there are many uncertainties, and although he signed an executive order today to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement or strengthen oil exports to the United States, it is unclear how he will revise the IRA. Because the IRA is a matter of the interests of American companies, lobbying is going to be very widespread, so the influence of the House and Senate members is going to be much greater. In fact, what is not well known in Korea is that when the IRA was promoted in Congress, the lobbying of American companies was great. This lobbying also had a huge impact on the formation of the bill. That's why there will be a fierce lobbying battle this spring and summer, and when the IRA was enacted last time, Korean companies didn't have much of that impact, but I think this time, if they are much more interested in the process of enacting such laws, they will be able to have an impact.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Wasn't Trump's response to North Korea by South Korea and the U.S. not recognizing nuclear possession or denuclearization? Since Trump has virtually declared that North Korea is a nuclear power, some predict that it will now go to nuclear reduction rather than denuclearization.

★ Kook Seung-min: I think it's a little too early for the Trump administration to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power. I think we will be able to know some specific policies after a while.

◇ Interest line: The U.S.-China relationship is also a big issue in Korea. Over the weekend, Trump and President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed various pending issues. How did the professor see this atmosphere between the two leaders of the U.S. and China?

★ Kook Seung-min: What's very interesting about this is what's most interesting about China is that most people think it's tariffs, but that's not true. From China's point of view, it is a very familiar field because it has already been experienced in the first Trump period. China's biggest concern is to prevent Biden's introduced export controls, especially semiconductors and advanced technologies, from entering China. China has suffered a lot from these export controls, and China will do its best to eliminate them. In the end, China is doing its best to eliminate it, while it is currently unclear whether the United States has policy goals, but I predict that the tug-of-war between the two countries will continue over export control.

◆ Choi Soo-young: Among the news from the past weekend, the so-called TikTok ban moratorium executive order is also noticeable. It's a moratorium on TikTok bans, will this affect U.S.-China relations? So, referring to a joint venture with a 50% stake in the U.S., TikTok should be bailed out because it's popular. Do you think this is a signal of U.S.-China relations in the future?

★ Kook Seung-min: I don't think the postponement of the TikTok ban will have a big impact on the U.S.-China relationship itself. Trump is thoroughly interested in whether TikTok is politically favorable or unfavorable to him. And in a way, he seems to believe that TikTok has nothing much to do with being aware of banning it because it has had its advantage these days. Another thing is that there is more interest in what the U.S. will gain, so I don't think it's going to stop TikTok from operating in the U.S. if it thinks it's good enough for itself and the U.S. to gain.

◇ Lee Ik-seon: But did TikTok favor Trump in this regard?

★ Kook Seung-min: If you look at those videos that are generated inside TikTok, if only very negative videos about Trump are mass produced, Trump won't think good. If you look at the videos generated on TikTok, there are so many Trump videos, so there is no need for Trump to look at them negatively at all. Also, my guess is that TikTok's company ByteDance was given an algorithm in Trump's favor. Nevertheless, you'll have to think a little bit about it. I think he will think about how to look good to Trump.

◆ Choi Soo-young: President Trump, who returned to MAGA to make the United States greater, is raising big issues to the international community while expanding his territory, the Panama Canal, and the United States. What can you say if you could express the era of the 2nd Trump in one word?

★ Kook Seung-min: The summary might be a little weird, but I think it's going to be very similar to the first Trump. However, if you have to find a difference, there is no institutional mechanism to prevent Trump, no established forces in the Republican Party, and no political and social backlash. That's why Trump will be able to push for the policies he wants more unilaterally, and in the end, public opinion is very honeymooned, but there are concerns that his illegal immigrant deportation policy or tariff policy will have a negative economic impact. If the economy goes in a good direction, Trump will be able to push ahead with the policies he wants more boldly, and if the negative impact becomes stronger as people feared, the honeymoon will end and face opposition again, so for now, I think it will be Trump's 2nd term at least in the beginning.