- Trump era changes from America First to 'America Only'
- Trump's 2nd term agenda has nothing to do with South Korea
- Trump mentions 'new clear power' over North Korea
- South Korea's leadership has already begun to settle down..Trump's obsession with the 'Nobel Peace Prize'
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: January 21, 2025 (Tuesday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Hong Hyun-ik, former head of the National Diplomatic Service
- Defense cost issue, U.S. military base in South Korea should be noted for possible negotiations
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆Shinryul: YTN Radio's Shinryul's News Head-to-head Match Part 4 begins. Part 4 will also be decorated with a face-to-face interview. Hong Hyun-ik, the former head of the National Diplomacy in the studio, is here. How are you?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Hello.
◆ Shin Yul: It's hectic at home and abroad. In addition, President Trump took office, declared the era of America First, and said, "The golden age of the United States has begun." How did you hear this?
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: I don't know. He said the first word like that. I think it was quite a long time for the presidential speech, but it would have been nice if the president's philosophical perception of the vision and hope for the future of the United States was expressed. What's lacking about profit-oriented stories and policies, especially dignity as a businessman, is that there are predecessors and then there are former presidents of the Democratic Party. But they pushed me so unilaterally. Well done for now. You did a great job. The ruling and opposition parties are cooperating and the country is in a golden age, so I'll do my best and do my best to achieve a true golden age. It's not this, it's been a total decline so far, and it's a golden age from now on. I think it's an unorthodox remark.
◆ Shin Yul: Isn't that a trend all over the world these days?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: There is no proper leader. now in human history Like Putin, President Xi Jinping is authoritarian, Kim Jong-un is busy shooting missiles, and Zelensky should have prevented the war again, but he should have prevented the war. Anyway, Netanyahu is worth seeing, too. But anyway, I think that the golden age has come, and it will be a country that takes care of the interests of the United States and respects the world, and will be respected and envied. Well, it may be good for the American people because the interests of the United States have been promoted, but the United States that we know is gone for people living in third countries. The United States literally advocates democracy and human rights, takes the lead in creating a really good world, and the United States as an exemplary leader is gone. The United States will live only for the United States. That's why we're going from America First to America Only.
◆ Synthesis: First to Only?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: That's why I'm sad. It was kind of sad.
◆ Shin Yul: But I think I'm good at business. I heard it's the biggest donation ever made at the inauguration ceremony.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: That's right. You can't even imagine it in Korea. What kind of inauguration do you accept donations?
◆ Shin-ryul: If the president of our country does that next to his son and does that and then son-in-law and daughter-in-law in the first term, it would be a mess. It's a manipulation of state affairs.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: The last king issued a Trump meme coin a day or two before his inauguration.
◆ Shin Yul: She also published it. First lady Trump.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: I heard that the increase rate now exceeds 10000%. So it's amazing if it goes up by 100%, but it's over 10,000%, so it's less than $38 right now, but it's a few cents at first.
◆ Shin Yul: If the president of our country says. If you issue coins before taking office and take office, it will be a mess.
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: It's a real impeachment. In terms of the sentiment of the Korean people, If we interpret that politically, the leadership in the Republican Party was not firm in the first term, and the second was that the Democratic Party won the majority in the Congress because the ruling and opposition parties changed after two years. And the ministers didn't listen, so they said it was the axis of adults, so when you talked about Trump, you stopped everything. So, I didn't have much to gain if I looked good at Trump, but now I have a majority in the House and Senate. It also got ahead of the vote. And the judiciary also has a large number of people appointed by themselves in the past. And starting with Elon Musk, the conglomerates are poking their heads. And aren't you saying Elon Musk has invested at least 300 billion won in our money? Then, he earned nearly 100 times more profit. It means that it earned 100 times more profit, but it seems that other Zuckerbergs or people like this can't go and fawn over it. So even in Korea, we couldn't attend the inauguration ceremony properly and the lawmakers went, but we probably couldn't make it to the top 600.
◆ Shin Yul: He watched TV. Only one ambassador to the U.S. entered.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Probably Chairman Chung Yong-jin.
◆ Shin Yul: Because he's a businessman.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: And because I'm friends with Trump Jr., the Genesis g80 also appeared on the screen like this. Hyundai Motor is very worried about Hyundai Motor, but I think it's trying to win a little bit.
◆ Shin Yul: It was parked right next to the plane.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: So I don't know if Junior is riding around, but I might have given it to him because he's a friend, but anyway, it's true that he's good at business. However, I think there is a possibility that this may violate the principle of conflict of interest.
◆ Credit: Coins are also very shocking. Before I became president, I issued coins and became president. . Oh man, our country is suspicious of the rise of presidential stocks, but anyway, the agendas promoted by the 2nd Trump after President Trump's inauguration were also disclosed. What's related to us here?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: None of the six agendas are directly related to Korea. Logically, I will make it easier to live now, I will increase prices, and then I will cut taxes, and then I will kick out illegal immigrants and protect the border well. Next is peace through strength. The peculiar thing here is that it seems very aggressive because it is peace through power, but he is saying that he will avoid war. That's why peace has come from the Middle East now in Gaza, Israel. Anyway, I don't think this is entirely negative. First, I will build a strong army. Next, energy hegemony means that the United States will become an oil exporter by drilling for oil and developing gas. If you don't buy U.S. oil or gas, I'll impose tariffs on Europe. I'm doing that right now. Make America's cities safe again. Crimes in the United States are serious right now. And gun accidents. So these are six things. However, there is nothing directly related to Korea, but if you go out to find out about Korea, it is a tariff part. I need money, but I don't have money, so I'm going to raise money by paying tariffs on where I get the money.
◆Shin Yul: They called us a money machine.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: That's why Korea and the United States are going to impose tariffs even though it's an FTA between Korea and the United States. This is against the FTA. The FTA is a free trade, but the FTA is tariff-free, and I will impose tariffs even if I sign an FTA. In general, 10% to 20%. Fortunately, the list has not yet been made in the inaugural address. I'm glad you said it would take time, but anyway, if you extend it, you invested a lot in semiconductor secondary battery cars during Biden's days in Korea. It will eliminate or reduce subsidies or tax breaks. There's something like this right now, and negotiations with Biden for the Korea-US FTA have been concluded. But I'm going to do this again. If I were the president during the presidential election, I would get beaten nine times more.
◆ Shin Yul: Most of the time, it's a problem, right? They say they are deporting all illegal residents, but again, Dr. Hong Hyun-ik will be checked. Relations with North Korea. In this part, President Trump actually said New Clear Power, but we all report that it is a nuclear power, but in fact, the expression of a nuclear power in NPT and other places is not described as New Clear Power. I think that's why there's a slight difference in nuance. First of all, what do you think about President Trump and the nominee for defense secretary using the word "new clear power"?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: It's going into Trump's negotiating skills. That's why we're laying the groundwork for negotiations. If you play Go, you are laying a paving stone. First of all, Alex Wong, who was in charge of working-level talks with Kim Jong-un in the past, was appointed as the deputy assistant secretary of the National Security Office as the number two. This is very meaningful and a German ambassador named Richard Grinnell, who was a candidate for secretary of state at the General Assembly. I appointed him as special envoy for Cuba and North Korea.
◆ Shin Yul: Isn't he some kind of relative? Is it in-laws' money?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: It's not my in-laws. So, if President Trump says in a word, he has no shame because of his face. If we're Asian, there's something called shamelessness. There's shame, but there's no shame. How do you appoint your in-laws as ambassadors?
◆ Shin Yul: I think your family is doing everything.
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: That's why we should pay attention to the fact that there is a summit between the U.S. and North Korea. In the past, Kim Jong-un or Kim Jong-il ran away saying he liked it, but now the situation has changed, so Kim Jong-un is not coming out, and Trump will somehow engage Kim Jong-un to make a small deal equivalent to peace and win the Nobel Peace Prize with the end of the war in Ukraine. I have that in my head, but I don't just talk, but sometimes I talk again. I will definitely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Why can't I do it when Obama rides? That's what I'm doing right now. Then shouldn't we bring Kim Jong Un in? However, from Kim Jong-un's point of view, it is not me in the past. In the past, I was developing nuclear weapons, but now I've finished developing them, and I've already made about 50 of them, and I'm sending troops as an ally to Russia, and I'm criticizing Russia when a resolution comes up from time to time at the Security Council. I don't really need America. And sanctions, 90% of them trade with China, and about 3 trillion won a year comes in from Russia. A huge amount of money comes into North Korea for a year of trade. The salary and labor costs of the dispatched soldiers. That's why Kim Jong-un is the best right now. That's why Trump knows that. What should I do to get Kim Jong Un to come out? Then, even if Kim Jong-un comes out, we should give him something to take with him. But there's Korea. Korea opposes that. What Kim Jong-un wants is to recognize him as a nuclear power.
◆ Shin-ryul: We acknowledge it and do nuclear disarmament talks and go out equally.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: So from the perspective of the United States, does it matter that North Korea has 10 nuclear weapons? China alone has 500 and Russia has 5,000. So even if North Korea has 10 or 50, that's not important, it can't even shoot to the United States without long-range missiles. So, we will stop developing long-range missiles for now without test-firing them. And I'll freeze the nucleus for now. But he must have a nuclear weapon from the past. That's acquiescence. So, it's not approval, it's acquiescence, but it's that kind of luck. Now, that's what the Secretary of Defense said. And then Trump said yesterday. The nominee for secretary of state has used numerous sanctions to prevent North Korea's nuclear weapons, but to no avail. What do you mean by that? Please ease it. I'm already getting my luck out of that hearing that it's no use trying. From Kim Jong-un's point of view, it's worth going out a little further. And for Kim Jong-un, there is this chaos in South Korea right now, how much do we feel alienated if we meet Trump? In such a situation, if the U.S. actually condones nuclear weapons, it becomes a perfect U.S. ally. And now in Japan, the prime minister is asking to meet Kim Jong-un. Then Kim Jong-un will lead the situation completely in Northeast Asia on the Korean Peninsula. So, Trump is laying the groundwork for Kim Jong-un to go out one by one, but what's important is peace in Ukraine and then the Middle East. And there's also the China and Taiwan issues. You have to pay customs duties and there are many problems. Since we have to cut taxes, Trump is making the most of his negotiation skills, but Trump is not nervous to meet you right now, so I'm just sneaking at you. So, I think we've slowly laid out the human paving stones like this, and we're throwing the agenda one by one, but if we go on the way, we can meet in April or May or summer.
◆ Shin Yul: Wouldn't that actually make us very difficult?
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: It's difficult, so the most important thing is that our leadership needs to settle down quickly.
◆Truth: No leadership.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: There is no leadership itself. There's no way I can fix it now. Japan's foreign minister attended the inauguration ceremony, and we are the embassy.
◆Confidence: The wife of the late Prime Minister Abe went to the United States and had dinner with Trump.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: What Trump said over dinner was that Prime Minister Abe really loved, respected, and liked me, especially Abe recommended me as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. I told my wife about it.
◆ Shin Yul: He's very obsessed, too. Anyway.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Trump especially said, "Why can't I ride when Obama is on it?" Obama may not even know why he rode it. I've already done a lot of work to survive, but I haven't given it to you. That's what I'm saying right now.
◆ Shin Yul: But what should we do about this in our country?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Anyway, there are many things in Korea right now. There's defense costs, and what's more urgent now is semiconductors. Then, they said they would get rid of all the subsidies for electric cars and batteries, but either negotiating secretly or Congressional factories in the United States are all being built in the region. If you meet local councilors and you lobby and Samsung Electronics plant disappears in your district, you have to fall behind you and do this. It's not important to attend the inauguration ceremony first. Then, I heard that universal tariffs will be imposed, but what's fortunate is that I didn't just hit 10% to 20% of universal tariffs on the first day of my inauguration. He said he would hit China 60% of the time, but is that still within 6 months? I told him that I would like to visit China and meet Xi Jinping within 100 days.
◆ Credit: Higher tariffs will increase prices in the U.S.
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: Prices are going up. So, the World Bank and the IMF are warning you because Biden raised prices so much that life became difficult that he criticized you. If you raise tariffs, Korea's trade with the U.S. as well as the global economy will decrease by 10% now. But if you raise tariffs, prices in the United States will rise, so you'll be troubled. So what Trump is talking about is tariffs, which increases the bargaining power and then raises funds to cut taxes. I'm emphasizing that. So I was going to do the tariff issue on the day I took office right away, but it's fortunate for us to say that we will gradually do it, but it's a burden for Trump and himself. It's obvious that he and he will go up in price. However, it is said that there is a need for a time difference until prices rise without rising immediately. However, since it is certain to rise, Trump's current task is that he now occupies the majority of the House and Senate in the midterm elections in two years, and he should not be taken away or taken away. To do that, prices shouldn't go up. So we keep emphasizing that, and we have to say, "If you raise your tariffs, you're going to go up in price," and all the prominent American economists are saying that it's going to go up in price.
◆ Shin-ryul: How do I pay for defense?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: I think defense costs are a little unique. In terms of South Korea and North Korea's defense capabilities, North Korea overwhelmingly has nuclear weapons and missiles, and we don't have them at all. It's overwhelmingly threatening to us, so we can't compare it, but we're fifth in the world and North Korea is 35th in the world. So conventional military power can certainly be seen as superior to North Korea.
◆ Shin-ryul: But when you combine the nucleus, it turns upside down.
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: When you combine the nukes, it turns upside down. But we have the U.S. nuclear umbrella. So the important thing is.
◆ Shin Yul: What if I tell you to pay for the nuclear umbrella?
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: So the U.S. nuclear umbrella is strengthened. If it strengthens the nuclear umbrella further, I think we can pay a little bit for it. Because it's so overwhelming that we're being threatened. The nuclear umbrella is not a torn umbrella, but it has holes. So, while strengthening the nuclear umbrella, the defense cost sharing is the support cost for 28,500 U.S. troops in Korea. That's why 28,500 people are needed. What we need for North Korea is nuclear deterrence, not conventional military deterrence. We were ahead. So, don't worry about the fact that we can withdraw about 10,000 out of 28,500 people. Even if there are no 10,000 out of 28,500 people and only 18,500 people, we can defeat any number of North Koreans when they invade the South. If we talk about it, President Trump would say that South Korea will unexpectedly lose power if they do that, so how can we reduce that first? If we discuss it with our aides.
◆ Shin Yul: Shouldn't we keep it in check even when they check China?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: The number one U.S. global strategy is checking China. There's no better place like Korea to deploy the U.S. military's overseas forces to check China.
◆ Shin Yul: That's right.
◇ Hong Hyun-ik: So on top of that, you pay 1.5 trillion won in defense contributions, and if you withdraw some of the U.S. troops in Korea and bring them back to the U.S., it costs a lot more to maintain.
◆ Shin Yul: I guess so.
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Then let's pretend Trump didn't exist. I think that's possible. That's why the Korean people and our ruling and opposition parties collude. We are more dominant in conventional military power, so why do we need all 28,500 people and even give us bases. Japan now has seven land to base. We calculate the cost of renting the base and calculate it in the defense cost share. We have zero won. The huge amount of money in Pyeongtaek is 1 trillion won a year. The defense cost share is 1.5 trillion won, but it's 2.5 trillion won there. And KATUSA. There is no katusa in Japan. If you add it up, it's 2.8 trillion won. Then we're paying a lot more than Japan. So explain this well and then we are ahead of conventional military forces, so thank you so much so far, but about 5,000 or 10,000 people can withdraw if it's that expensive. But since our people may be a little afraid of this, we should explain it to our people well. I've insisted on this for a long time.
◆ Shin Yul: So you're saying that Trump also thinks, "Look at these guys, they've got guts all of a sudden?" Anyway, defense cost negotiations and the U.S. Forces Korea issue. The most important thing is how do you think the nuclear umbrella will be strengthened if you give more money?
◇Hong Hyun-ik: Actually, in the past, we withdrew all tactical nuclear weapons in 1991. In the 1970s, there were up to 950. There was only South Korea on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea didn't have a nuclear weapon. At that time, North Korea lived under the nuclear threat of the U.S. military from the Korean War to the early 1990s. So, conversely, the U.S. and North Korea have withdrawn all the U.S. troops in Korea with nuclear weapons, so that's what happened now. So, we have to pay a little, but it's difficult for us to develop nuclear weapons, so the temporary condition for relocating the tactical nuclear weapons is that if North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons, the U.S. military will withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea, and if North Korea agrees to the negotiations, we will postpone the deployment for now. But if North Korea gives up its nuclear program, it will withdraw. At the same time, I think it would be better to deploy it by sea.
◆ Shin Yul: That's all for today's talk. Thank you. Until now, Hong Hyun-ik was the former head of the National Diplomacy.
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