Predicting the spread of infectious diseases, developing a new mathematical model with higher accuracy

Korean researchers have developed a model for predicting the spread of infectious diseases that has greatly increased accuracy.

In collaboration with the National Institute of Mathematical Science, Korea University, and Kyungpook National University, CI research team Kim Jae-kyung developed an infectious disease diffusion model that can more accurately estimate the infectious reproduction index with little information considering both the present and the past.

Existing models had the disadvantage of not being able to reflect past influences by assuming that all contacts expressed infectiousness with the same probability, but the newly developed model overcame existing limitations by introducing a delayed differential equation that utilizes both current and past states.

As a result of evaluating the accuracy of the model developed using cumulative COVID-19 cases in Seoul, the researchers estimated that the infectious reproduction index between January and March 2020, at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, was 4.9 for the existing model and 2.7 for the new model.

At that time, the actual infectious reproduction index was 2.7, and the researchers explained that the existing model could overestimate the infectious reproduction index by nearly twice, and that the newly developed model more accurately reflected the actual spread of infectious diseases.