[2PM] "It's going to open a golden era in the U.S."What does the 'Trump Era' mean?

■ Host: Na Kyung-chul, anchor Lee Se-na, anchor
■ Starring: Cho Byung-je, chair professor at Kyungnam University Institute for Far East Studies, and Yoon Hyun-sook, YTN international reporter

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 2PM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The Trump era has opened up again.

From the heresy of American politics to the oldest president ever, to retaking the White House after failing to win re-election. Let's take a look at what Trump's election means for America and for our time. We will join Cho Byung-je, a visiting chair professor at Kyungnam University's Far East Studies Institute, and Yoon Hyun-sook, a reporter from the International Department. Welcome.

Hello. It was expected to be the most close election in the history of the U.S. presidential election, but the results came out embarrassingly early. If you two could tell us briefly how you evaluate this election. First, professor.


Short in one line?

[Anchor]
It's hard.


If I do that, I think I can say it like this. I think I can say that the American people chose President Trump's America First.

[Anchor]
What do you think about Yoon?

[Reporter]
I think I'll be similar, but I think I can say New Normal Trumpism.

[Anchor]
Ahead of this election, there were many predictions that it would take two weeks for the winner to be confirmed, that it would take 13 days, that it would take a long time, but now there are no other variables in the results?

[Reporter]
does not exist. Because some regions are still counting votes.Ma has already confirmed Trump's election. We have secured all the electors beyond the 270 electors needed to confirm the election. In the case of this election, it took only 7 hours and a half to be confirmed. I haven't seen this in recent years, actually, when President Biden was elected, there was a declaration of election about four days later. However, in this case, the difference in votes between the two candidates was so large that there was no room for recounts, errors in aggregation, and fraudulent elections in competing states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia. It will also take up to 13 days in the case of vote counting by mail, which takes a long time. The expected area is Arizona. So Arizona is still counting the votes. About 70% of the votes are counted now, but the red wave has already taken over here. Since the table difference is large, there will be no unusual change even after 100% completion.

[Anchor]
In Pennsylvania and Georgia, which were considered the biggest destinations among competing states, Trump also won the game, but in what direction do you think the votes in these regions were influenced?


In the end, the economic problem underlying this election seems to have divided the votes. There were various immigration issues, followed by the right to terminate a pregnancy. This was a big issue. However, in the end, it was the overall economic situation in the United States that decided the outcome. And wasn't it Americans' perception of the current state of the United States? That's how I see it. According to a recent survey, only about 28% of the American people answered that the U.S. is going in the right direction. In this situation, many people said that it is impossible for the ruling party to come back to power. So the results seem to have been decided according to the direction of public sentiment, the public's perception of the economic situation, and so on.

[Anchor]
It was a traditional Democratic base in this election. The departure of black and Latino voters, which is also noteworthy, has risen despite former President Trump's anti-immigration policies and discriminatory words and actions. How can I interpret this?


A lot of people are watching it because it's a fun phenomenon. But if you think about it, it makes sense. When Trump first ran for president in 2015 and 2016, anti-immigrant slogans were very strongly expressed in black, Hispanic, and other minority groups, which were anti-immigrant or a kind of fear. But since four years have passed and nearly eight years have passed since then, from minorities in the United States, Black people, Hispanics, and people in this line of work, it is rather helpful to secure their economic jobs by preventing Trump from entering anymore. This seems to have turned to Trump's support a lot this time. Of course, the approval rating was lower than that of the Democratic candidate, but it's a significant improvement compared to the approval rating sent to the previous Republican candidate.

[Anchor]
How about this part? Reporter Yoon, there were many analyses that female voters' votes would control the outcome before the election, but when I opened the lid, it seems that the female votes did not exert much power. How can I understand that?

[Reporter]
As a result, it can be seen that female voter support for Harris was not great. Actually, I got more tickets. Although he received about 10 percentage points more than Trump, compared to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, he is rather 3 to 5 percentage points smaller than the votes received by the Democratic candidate at the time. So, it can be seen that there was less support from women. In the case of Harris, she made great efforts to target Hidden Harris, believing that the issue of abortion rights and pregnancy suspension will be very big in attracting women's votes in this presidential race. Hidden Harris refers to the white female voter base.

Although they support Harris because of her abortion rights, there are definitely some conservative-colored families, spouses, and people who can't show their support. That's what I thought and put out a lot of customized advertisements aimed at them. Let's vote for the conviction, and come up with this type of customized advertisement. In addition, there were campaigns in which women posted notes supporting women's conviction votes to women in public toilets and women's changing rooms in conservative gardens where many white voters live, but as a result, there was no hidden Harris. And it can be said that these issues have not been properly used even for the target group, the female group.

[Anchor]
Looking at the results of this election, some analysts say that the U.S. society is not ready to welcome a female president yet, what do you think, professor?


In the process of this campaign, Trump's camp tried hard to highlight that point. For example, when foreign leaders meet Harris, they will see her as very weak, because Trump himself said a lot of these things. But crucially, rather than that, the message from Harris' side was a little insufficient to receive the American people's choice in the end. I'd like to interpret it that way, as Trump was dominant in grasping the spirit of the times.

[Anchor]
In any case, the first female president of the United States was not born, but as a result, polls in the United States showed that it was completely wrong again, right? How are you analyzing this part?


This isn't the first time that pollsters have been criticized, it was in 2016 and it was in 2020. In 2016, all the organizations, the media said it would be Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, Biden would win drastically, but it didn't work out that way. I missed it. It was very close again this time, but it was not Trump's Lanslide, but it was almost over, so the prediction was very wrong. In the meantime, after the past two failures, the pollsters seem to have reflected a lot on why we are failing so much.

And if we say that the poll technique is wrong, that's why we've spent a lot of condolences trying to fix it, but we end up failing again this time, I think that there are flaws or biases that are hard to avoid in the polling methods of American pollsters, leading pollsters, and the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN that have been leading the public opinion. As you can see from the overall tendency of reporting, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN were all supportive of the Democratic Party politically. So, wasn't this investigation that they're doing inevitably biased? That's what I want to see.

[Anchor]
As pollsters' predictions are wrong, it feels like a task has been thrown into the U.S. polling system once again. Former President Trump declared victory. What are the procedures left until you re-enter the White House?

[Reporter]
Yesterday's presidential election main voting process, in fact, the U.S. has an indirect election structure, so the people voted yesterday for the presidential election. The electors chosen in this way will vote to elect the president next month. And after the U.S. Congress certifies the results of the electoral vote on January 6, President Trump will officially take office as the 47th president on the 20th. And in the process of transition of power, we will see a lot of communication between current President Biden and President-elect Trump, who are once rivals and bitter rivals in a way. President Biden congratulated President-elect Trump on the phone. It also promised a smooth transition of power. As is customary, we will invite you to the White House soon. I'm also going to give a speech to the nation today. In fact, when President Biden was elected in 2020, these are practices that were ignored by then-current President Trump. But I think you'll be able to see me do it this time.

[Anchor]
You even said that the official presidential inauguration ceremony will be held on January 20th next year. The 2nd Cabinet is already being evaluated. I think one of the people who is most interested in him is Elon Musk and Tesla CEO. What role do you expect to play in the Trump administration?


Elon Musk was seen a lot during the election campaign, and there were many scenes where he showed off his friendship with President Trump. You already know.Ma gave Elon Musk some role already. He said he would completely fix the structure in which the government's budget is misexecuted by entrusting the government's efficiency improvement committee, but the question of whether Elon Musk will join the Cabinet is a little different. If we seem to say that the Cabinet is a Cabinet member, the U.S. has 15 ministers of government departments.

It's hard to say that it's a minister, so it's fixed to say it's a shadow cabinet. However, when the ministerial meeting is held, the president can invite many other people besides this minister. For example, people like U.N. ambassadors can be invited, and Hillary Clinton was appointed as chairman of the Health Insurance Reform Committee under President Clinton, but if President Trump wants to, Elon Musk can also serve as chairman of the Government Efficiency Committee and give him a cabinet-level position and invite him. That will open the way for Elon Musk to participate in the overall state of affairs with this qualification, so I think Musk's influence will increase.

[Anchor]
But Elon Musk is the CEO. As a CEO of a company, Tesla's stock price has soared since the vote was counted, and what role would be appropriate for the government to take in the matter where the CEO's interests are at stake? What do you think?


There are a lot of such problems, but the US as a whole seems to be a little generous in this area. So it's called a revolving door, right? It makes it relatively free to be in the private sector, enter the government sector, and then enter the private sector, but instead, they seem to continue to track and monitor fairly strictly whether there is a conflict of interest. In the case of Elon Musk, he doesn't offer a position as CEO of Tesla, he just goes in and does it, but I think it's acceptable. If you look at Trump himself, he left his son with the Trump Corporation, which he ran, but he slept in his hotel, went to his golf course, played golf, so I don't think this will be a big problem.

[Anchor]
There seems to be a distinctly different perception system from our country.


I think it's a little different.

[Anchor]
Trump, the nepotism of his children was a problem during his last term. I wonder how it will be this time. Ivanka, who served as the right arm of her father, who came to the front in the first term, was not actually seen in this presidential election. What do you think?

[Reporter]
That's right. Ivanka, there was little presence in this presidential race. Although he participated in the national convention, he didn't give a speech or show such enthusiasm. In fact, this kind of image is different from the one that came to the forefront during the 1st generation. At that time, working as a senior White House adviser with her husband, Kushner, she was given a name like the right arm, as you said, as a heavyweight. In the case of Ivanka at the time, she was also said to have pioneered a new realm of First Daughter in place of First Lady Melania, who was called First Lady of Hermit. It received a lot of media attention. I think it'll be different for the second period. I think I'll keep a little distance from the White House.

Then, attention is focused on who will take over the role, and this time, the eldest son will play the role. It's Donald Trump Jr. Regardless of her position, she is expected to take over the role that Ivanka played and play the role of the most powerful person this time. Because he already played the role of a kingmaker in the re-election process. Sen. JD Vance is being nominated as the vice president, and the eldest son's influence was huge. There is already this evaluation. In the case of this eldest son more than anyone else, let's make America great again, the maga that my father is advocating. This is because he is a person who fully supports these beliefs and believes in himself and is a great believer in those beliefs, drawing great support from Trump supporters.

So, in fact, from early on, he is directly leading the review of ministerial candidates in preparation for the election. I'm also working on making shadow cabinets, so I'm getting involved in the 2nd appointment. In the case of the second son, there's Eric, the second son. Since he was very active in this election and his wife, Lara, supported him a lot in both organizational and financial aspects in campaigning, I think the second son's role will be on behalf of Ivanka and Kushner.

[Anchor]
Regarding the second cabinet of the Trump administration, I think the most interesting part of our government is the candidate for secretary of state who oversees foreign policy, but former German Ambassador Richard Grenell is being discussed. What kind of personality are you?


Ambassador Grenell served as ambassador to Germany as you said during the last administration, and then at the end of the Trump administration, he briefly served as the head of the department in charge of all intelligence agencies. And after I left office, I met and participated in a group called Protecting American Interests, which is said to protect the United States from the Chinese Communist Party. So he has a very strong position in relations with China, and when he was in Germany, he emphasized Trump's position on NATO as it was, so he was in conflict with the German government, the German foreign affairs team, or the entire diplomatic corps there. The biggest feature is that he's an avid Trump believer, and since he left office, he's always been hovering around Trump without doing that much outside work. So there's a lot of speculation that either he's going to be secretary of state or he's a diplomatic aide to the president in the White House.

[Anchor]
Who else is likely to play a major role in the Trump administration?


So far, it's only a hippopotamus, but we have another person to pay attention to. There's a person named Robert Wright-Hise. This person was a trade representative during the Trump administration last time. It's this Lighthizer who talked about America First and then followed Trump's tariff policy on China, subsidized it, and assisted all these policies in the background perfectly. So, what role he will play in this administration is likely to be very important in determining the policy direction of the Trump administration. So far, some say that he may return to USTR, but some say that he may become finance minister.

[Anchor]
We're talking about these candidates because of what kind of policy will Trump come up with in the end, but most of all, I think there are more expectations that the U.S. priority, which is stronger than the first period, will come back.

[Reporter]
That's right. The U.S.-first policy, which was not completed during Trump's first term, is expected to be firmly implemented this time. First of all, from a diplomatic perspective, the United States has actively participated in various disputes since World War I, taking on the role of world police and the leadership of the liberal democratic camp. But Trump's America looks very different. Trump, Trumpism advocates a very extreme America-first policy, and an isolationist policy. This is because it is characterized by a strong and independent aggressive style while ignoring existing political and diplomatic practices. I think that over the next four years, Trump will have a period of great U.S. diplomatic transformation during his second term.

Right now, the two fronts that are going on in the world, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas Gaza war will certainly have the influence and influence of the second Trump. I also think we need to look at the economic aspect. Since the protection trade stance using tariffs as a weapon has been ensured, it is expected to rupture with Korea and the EU, which have been linked to the Korea-US FTA. In addition, as for the alliance, Trump thinks about the alliance thoroughly based on profit and loss and transaction, so he has consistently pointed out the theory of free rides in NATO and other alliances, so it is expected that there will be many changes in the liberal democratic alliance in the future.

[Anchor]
Economic, diplomatic, and security changes are expected in general, and we are worried about defense costs more than anything else. Former President Trump also mentioned that Korea is a money machine. Wouldn't there be a high possibility of renegotiation, what do you think?


It's a little ambiguous to say whether we're going to renegotiate or not. Trump's thoughts on the issue of sharing defense costs are a little like Trump's because he himself has spoken in his own voice so many times. In 2017, all of our people were surprised because they already told us to raise the defense cost share five times from that level. And I've been carrying that $5 billion number ever since, and I've talked about it a lot to people I've met even after I left office, and after we concluded the defense cost-sharing deal a while ago, I would have gotten $10 billion, didn't I?

So, I don't know how this will appear, but I think there will be serious discussions between the two governments on what role Korea plays in defending Korea once again. In some cases, it can be said to really raise the cost-sharing burden, and the other is for Korea to do its part in self-defense. Trump's point is that the U.S. will stop being the world's police, so our allies are now asking us to cover themselves, so I think there will be a lot of demands from the U.S. and stories from the U.S. in this regard that South Korea is covering itself.

[Anchor]
Also, I think there will be a change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but former President Trump continued to claim that he was close to Kim Jong-un, and if so, I wonder whether North Korea will celebrate former President Trump's election or demonstrate force again. What do you expect?


President Trump's expression of emotion toward Chairman Kim Jong-un is sometimes difficult to understand. I said that this is a love letter because I received a letter. There are some parts of Chairman Kim Jong-un that I don't understand well about him saying that he is a smart person who leads the country at a young age. Now that President Trump has become president this time, North Korea will try to reveal its presence that I am here somehow, but I don't know the part that says North Korea's congratulatory message at this time. I don't know what's going to happen unofficially, but this is a U.S. internal affairs issue, so we're not involved in this. We've said that we don't care who it is, and we don't have any official relationship, so it's hard to expect to send a congratulatory message.

Then, the show of force, which is also called the show of force, is not likely to show its presence because it has recently revealed a lot of fuss caused by the launch of Mars-19 or the dispatch of troops to Ukraine, and so I don't think there is much possibility that Trump, who is showing his familiarity with them, will do such a show of force after his election, pouring cold water on them. So, for the time being, I think the North Korean side will wait and see how the situation is going and what the Trump camp says.

[Anchor]
And when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump said, "If I'm elected, I'm going to end the war with one phone call in a day." The war is not over yet.E. How do you think it will affect the international situation in the future?


If you think it's going to be over in a day, it should have been over by now, but I don't think so. There's something that Trump has consistently expressed about these two wars. As the anchor said earlier, I will finish the war in Ukraine as soon as possible if I go in. The deadline was a bit different. I've said I'll finish it before I take office, so I think Trump will start talking soon to end this war somehow quickly. I made my position clear. If both sides have to sit in the ceasefire negotiations, but there are those who don't, I said there are ways to put pressure on them, so I wonder if there will be a dialogue somehow, and then Trump did so on the Israel-Hamas issue.

I said this is a problem that needs to be ended. And when Netanyahu came last summer, finish it quickly to Netanyahu. And finish it quickly until you can declare victory. Now that I've said this, I'm telling you to do as much as you can. So whatever you do on the ground, do what you have to do, but finish it quickly. And then say you won and then don't let any more killing happen, so I don't think there's any pressure on this to quickly cease fire. I think we will continue to maintain such a policy that will absolutely support Israel to the end.

[Anchor]
There are already concerns in terms of the economy. Because Trump kept mentioning tariffs. I think there will be this concern that our exports will be damaged.

[Reporter]
I'm really worried. Under Trump's second phase of strong protectionism, South Korea is likely to be a target. This is because Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. reached an all-time high last year. This year is also in the black. Therefore, if President Trump proceeds with his pledges under the second term of office and imposes strong tariffs, Korea cannot avoid it. If it actually goes ahead, Korea's total exports could fall by up to 62 trillion won. There are also analyses like this.

In addition, there is a possibility that the Korea-U.S. FTA negotiations will raise demands for renegotiation. In fact, in the first period, President Trump adjusted tariffs on Korean freight cars by saying that the trade deficit was already severe. Something similar like this could happen again. Of course, the financial market is expected to be affected. Immediately after Trump's election, the U.S. market showed a very good performance, with all three major indexes hitting new highs, but in emerging markets, all fell due to concerns about U.S.-first policy. In addition, in the case of the virtual currency market, Bitcoin is likely to continue to be affected by various influences, such as hitting its highest price.

[Anchor]
In the Trump era, when uncertainty has increased overall, in which part do you think our government's capabilities are most important?


I think our government is already thinking about a lot and establishing measures.As Ma briefly told everyone, the U.S. presidential election is a battle between the liberal international order that has been maintained for 70 to 80 years and what Trump says is America First, where the people chose Trump's America First. In Korea, this is a tremendous change in our surrounding environment, and in a way, it is a fundamental change. It's the first change in 70 or 80 years, I think we should look at it like this. If you zoom in on what Trump is talking about as America First, isn't this country First?

So each person is now entering the era of their own life. So, it is important for the government and the Korean people to recognize that we are entering a different world because the message is that they should do their job on their own. I don't think I should do black-and-white logic anymore to do that. I think it's necessary to keep our minds together so that we can be flexible in our thinking and respond flexibly to situations at that time.

[Anchor]
So far, we have talked about the U.S. presidential election and Trump's second cabinet with Cho Byung-je, a visiting chair professor at Kyungnam University's Far East Studies Institute, and Yoon Hyun-sook, a reporter from the International Department. Thank you both for talking today.