Yoo Seung-chan, "The Democratic Party, which needed strategic patience, lost moderate votes due to excessive language use."

Yoo Seung-chan
- The Democratic Party of Korea, which needed strategic patience, lost moderate votes due to excessive language use
- Lee Jae-myung's judicial risk was likely to become a reality.Relationship to martial law in 尹? Group
- People's power, the situation itself is not recognized.Lee Jae-myung's fear of uniting
- The Democratic Party of Korea will return its approval rating after the Lunar New Year holiday as internal voices become more diverse

Extreme Management
- Public opinion among conservatives due to Han Deok-soo's impeachment-Arrest Show at Airborne Division

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: January 10, 2025 (Friday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Eom Kyung-young, Director of the Center for Psychiatry in the Era, Yoo Seung-chan, Political Consultant

- Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party of Korea are responsible for declaring an "emergency martial law."尹 entrapment
- 'Conservative oversampling' phenomenon exists..It's not time to let go of the rising approval ratings of the 與
- The rising power of the people is likely to continue for a while.Restoring conservative dynamism

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆ Shinryul: Weekly politics match Shinryul's news head-to-head match Part 4, we will continue. Right now, we are in the studio with two political consultants, Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times, and Yoo Seung-chan. Shall we move on to the second topic? The problem is that the rising popular support rate is the consolidation of anti-Democratic Party sentiment and the oversampling of conservative supporters. How do you see it? CEO Yoo Seungchan?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: You two played roles in the waiting room. I see it as an anti-Democrat rally.

◆ Credit: Anti-Democrats. Then what did you plan?

◈Strict management: I think I'm really a professional in this field. When the results of the poll came out, many political experts came out and said that there was a problem with the question or that there was a problem with the design. Actually, that's not it. I think it's conservative taxation.

◆ Credit: So, when the anti-Democratic Party is gathered, it is a conservative taxation?

◈Strict management: That's right. Of course, task sampling may not be a simple task sampling. It can be seen as a combination of various meanings, because in 2016 and 2017, during the impeachment of President Park Geun Hye, the political landscape of progressive superiority was formed.

◆ Shin Yul: That's right. It's all been restored.

◈Strict management: That's right. It takes some time for it to be restored. But progressive advantage means that when we ask about political orientation or ideological orientation, there are more people who think this is progress than conservatives. So after the martial law crisis on December 3rd, a progressive political area was formed. Of course, it hasn't been long since it was about last month. So it goes on until three weeks in mid-December, and suddenly in January of this month, this is reversed when you see the polls coming out. With the conservative advantage, I think there are two opportunities. Han Deok-soo was impeached on December 27 last year. The Democratic Party of Korea also attempted to arrest President Yoon in the first week of January this year. For example, the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit showed an arrest show. As two incidents occurred, conservatives began to actively respond to the polls. So, it is true that the actual poll approval rating is also rising, but some believe that there is a phenomenon of conservative taxation.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: According to the survey, the conservative taxation phenomenon is correct, and the question of why the conservative taxation occurred is that the Democratic Party of Korea responded very excessively when I said at first that I shouldn't overdo anything. There were many moments when we had to endure strategically. In addition, there were a lot of very hard-line remarks. We talked about guns twice. The Democratic Party said that even if Rep. Lee Sung-yoon was shot, he should go in, and Rep. Chung Chung-rae will be sentenced to death. By speaking these very excessive languages, the middle-of-the-road conservatives fell out. So, the middle class in favor of impeachment believes that I'm out of the polls, but these phenomena are what I would do if I were the Democratic Party right now. If I'm CEO Lee Jae-myung, I don't keep saying that I should just arrest him, but if I'm a leader, I think I should do this. Arrest is right, but I'm against physical conflict. I want you to manage the situation well so that there won't be any physical conflict. I think these are the language of politics. There are only words of war now. So you continue to speak these languages of war. Then moderate conservatives feel great fatigue. It's a sudden, so you avoid responding to the polls quite a bit. Those phenomena are showing a very different aspect from the time when the Park Geun Hye was impeached. So you actually look at the Gallup ideological landscape. There are a lot more conservative respondents. than progressive respondents It's an impeachment trial, but there are more conservative respondents. This is a more active response. The reason for this is that the Democratic Party went too far. It's really scary when you go overboard and there's a one-way system. This is a self-purification function in which there are various opinions within the party so that we can talk and coordinate with each other. So, there should be so-called strategic patience functions. But I don't think the Democratic Party has that function right now.

◆ Shin Yul: We're going to talk about two polls right now. One is the Gallup Korea's internal poll released by Gallup Korea today. From January 7th to 9th, we conducted a telephone interview poll of 1,004 people aged 18 or older nationwide. Another is a poll of telephone interviews conducted by Embrain Public, KStat Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research from January 6-8. For both polls, you can refer to the website of the National Election Polling Working Committee, but it is high that both polls suggest impeachment.

◈Strict management: That's right. The public opinion that impeachment should be carried out is quite high. If you go into a party approval rating, the problem changes. So, compared to 2017 and now, I think there are about three implications. The first one was in 2017 and December 2016. At that time, the standing advisor of the Democratic Party of Moon Jae In did not appear. At the end of December, Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General, Kim Ahn Cheol Soo, the leader of the People's Party, and Kim Moon Jae In, a standing advisor, were now forming the lead. Right now, CEO Lee Jae-myung is overwhelmingly showing his approval rating in the opinion poll. It wasn't in this situation. That's why even though President Park Geun Hye was impeached, there was no reason for this reflection effect. So this phenomenon occurred because there is now a strong representative Lee Jae-myung with the Democratic Party. That's what I think. And the attack on President Yoon, that is, President Yoon has now declared martial law emergency martial law, and I think I was wrong about this.

◆ Shin Yul: Of course.

◈Um management: I think it's wrong.

◆ Shin Yul: It's a big deal if you think you did a good job.

◈Strict management: 40% of the responsibility lies with the Democratic Party and Chairman Lee Jae-myung. So I look at it like this. President Yoon fell into a trap. So, the Democratic Party and Chairman Lee Jae-myung didn't necessarily sell the trap of martial law. However, he impeached dozens of people in a row and handled dozens of laws unilaterally, waiting for President Yoon to make a mistake. In the meantime, President Yoon fell into the trap of emergency martial law. So I'm holding the Democratic Party and its leader Lee Jae-myung accountable for the recent polls. That's what I think.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I don't over-interpret it like that. It was like watching a virtual novel, so it's a bit awkward to say that martial law was done. Because in fact, CEO Lee Jae-myung had a very high possibility that judicial risks would become a reality. That's not the case this year. So one of these two is...

◆ Shin Yul: Former representative Cho Kuk is in prison now.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: If you think about the situation, I don't think martial law is related. However, public opinion of impeachment is high, but it is about 64 to 32 compared to the party's approval rating. Based on the Gallup survey, this is also 11% less than the previous week. The public opinion in favor of impeachment is like this, too. So if you look at this poll now, 56% of the respondents in favor of impeachment supported the Democratic Party. Eighty-seven percent of those who opposed impeachment supported the power of the people. The degree of assembly is completely different. There is also a difference in assembly of more than 20%. So I don't want to talk about the previous one. What do you call the Democratic Party of Korea's recent martial law? It's called Dakgong, but I feel tired about this. . .

◆ Velocity: Isn't it anxiety, not fatigue?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Anxiety is building up. I feel like it's accumulated. And now, in a different sense, I totally agree with Major General Um, the key to President Yoon Suk Yeol is constitutional judgment. The rest is secondary now. Constitutional judgment is the main thing. So it's up to the Constitutional Court to decide the outcome of the impeachment trial. The Constitutional Court is proceeding on its own. It's already on the Constitutional Court. The rest of the work then needs to be managed from a much more peaceful, soft and integrated perspective. Since the Democratic Party of Korea is now a huge opposition party, it is necessary to have such a sense of responsibility, but rather, the tendency to push it with the power of the huge opposition party was too strong. They are now facing headwinds. That's what the results of the poll are like now.

◈Extreme Management: I'm talking about this at that point. The two polls you just mentioned are 31% to 32% of Lee Jae-myung's next presidential candidate.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: There was a 1% difference.

◈Extreme Management: Here's how it came out. But it's down 5 percentage points compared to the December 3rd week of the poll. However, you mentioned earlier that you are for and against impeachment. There are 31% against impeachment. So the polls and Lee Jae-myung's approval rating are very similar. In my view, CEO Lee Jae-myung may be at the peak of late December and early January. In the end, the people hold not only President Yoon but also Representative Lee Jae-myung responsible for the recent martial law incident. I think the Democratic Party and Chairman Lee Jae-myung should do that immediately. Otherwise, even if an early presidential election is held, there is no guarantee that Lee Jae-myung will be elected.

◆ Shin Yul: By the way, you're overreacting. The power of the people these days is a little too much.

◇ Yoo Seung-chan: Not just a little, but the power of the people is too much. That's what I thought today, not to discuss the power of the people. . You're not acknowledging the situation itself right now. In particular, in the case of former lawmaker Kim Min, it is so strange that I see such a press conference in the National Assembly. As Director Um said earlier, I don't think I should interpret it that way, rather than holding him responsible for martial law. The unfavorable sentiment toward Lee Jae-myung is very strong. I mean, I think these things that have been formed regardless of martial law are being reflected in the results of this investigation. In fact, it is like this that the power of the people resists so strongly. There is a fear that Lee Jae-myung, the leader of a party with 180 seats, will take the next power. I think the power of the people is united because of that fear. But this is not a theory of responsibility for martial law.

◆ Shin Yul: There's Lee Jae-myung Phobia?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: That's right. What is now strongly emerging and what is actually a mystery is that the situation is ongoing and this is being reflected in the polls. So, for example, only half of those who support impeachment support Representative Lee Jae-myung. But this means a lot. So, it's in the impeachment phase, but you're the leader of the opposition. However, 64% of the respondents supported impeachment, and Lee Jae-myung's approval rating came out to 32%. It's just half of it. The fact that only half of the votes in favor of impeachment support Lee Jae-myung should be taken as a very dangerous signal from the standpoint of Lee Jae-myung. From the Democratic Party's point of view, as you said earlier, this is not a party that has been discussed. I think you should recognize that this situation is different from 2017.

◈Strict management: I'm not saying that the power of the people is 100% good. So, recently, the popular support rate has risen, and so has President Yoon, but there is also a rise that the Democratic Party of Korea did wrong, and as I said earlier, the conservatives responded diligently. But I'm also worried because the power of the people has recently been caught up in rising approval ratings, so it can go anywhere, so to speak.

◆ Shin Yul: I have a concern.

◈Strict management: But the problem is, I'm not sure if the impeachment trial will end in March or April, but there are three to four more months left. Then, until then, the power of the people may be let go. If we only look at the approval rating, there will be no problem if the impeachment is now rejected, but what if it is cited? Then the presidential election is two months away. Will he be able to persuade the people by changing his posture for two months? Since I can fall into this trap now, the power of the people is also so affected by the rise in approval ratings that this is not the time to let go.

◆ Shin Yul: No, I'd rather just let go of my hand...

◇Yoo Seung-chan: So I want this one.

◆ Shin Yul: I'm doing something, but I keep trying to do something that's not in the right direction.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: So the Lunar New Year holiday is very long, right? This time, it will be designated as a holiday until the 27th, so if you cross the stepping stone bridge on the 31st, you will have about 9 days of holidays. But I think we need to see how public opinion is formed after this holiday. And now, for sure, I think I'm passing through the taxation period. This goes through the relative period of taxation.

◆ Shin Yul: The Democratic Party will rise a bit?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I think the Democratic Party will go up now. I think it's going to go up, but there's a premise for everything. The premise is that there should be various voices in the Democratic Party. I think this could stick without the middle class or the anxiety that the opponents feel about 180 people who are in order right now. The expandability itself can hurt a lot. So, I think both parties are like that now because this could result in a much worse result than the vote rate that Chairman Lee Jae-myung won in the last presidential election. What if the power of the people depends on their approval rating? So, I don't think it will last long to do this kind of politics that completely strangle hard-line supporters who came out on hard-line streets.

◆ Shin Yul: Now that you're talking about it, this voice is like a one-way system. But what is this side? Why are you saying something different? It's really breathtaking to see both sides of this.

◈Extreme management: But the polls are... So I want to use a metaphor like this. Running cars and running marathoners. The flowing river, that is, once public opinion is formed. It's hard to come back easily. So if we're going to make a U-turn, we have to slow down and turn slowly. So I think the rise in people's power is likely to continue for the time being. Of course, there are some problems inside now.

◆ Shin Yul: You have to overcome that well.

◈Strict management: Overcoming well and the dynamics that conservatives had in the past. If you maintain these things, that's why you said the Democratic Party is a one-way system. The risk is not normal. So I think that if this conservative regains its dynamism and President Yoon maintains a soft attitude, it could show an upward trend even after the Lunar New Year holiday, when the poll's approval rating fluctuates.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Chief Um's premise is unlikely to be realized, so if you look at the power of the people or President Yoon's attitude right now.

◆ Shin Yul: In my view, the Democratic Party is not that strong.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: It's not easy. That's why politics is about acknowledging that there is something that the other person's opinion can listen to even after fighting like this.

◆ Credit: That's rationality.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: But we're going to the Gangdae River with neither of those things on either side, and it's going to swing. It's going to fluctuate, but now the political interest of the people is very high. So even the smallest things will move and sway a lot. So it would be more advantageous for someone to make less of a real Kim Min-jeon case or some death sentence.

◆ Shin-ryul: The party said it would apologize. What I think is unique is that the people's power apologizes at the party level for the former lawmaker Kim Min, but the person concerned will not be disciplined. Isn't this a little unreasonable to the general public? Rep. Kim Sang-wook recommends leaving the party, but isn't this a little off?

◈Strict management: I think there is a certain fateful situation of people's power. What it is is that there will be inevitable confusion until the results of the impeachment trial of President Yoon come out. So I think the party leadership, for example, leaves the lawmakers in front of the official residence, but the leadership doesn't, right? Of course, former lawmaker Kim Min's arrangement for a press conference at the National Assembly was not good. That said, you didn't leave the party just because there were various voices, did you? So I don't think the power of the people is crossing the line yet. In this way, I'm now trying to maintain the dynamic, as it were. I'm looking at it like this, and on the other hand, isn't it inevitable to support until the impeachment trial of President Yoon comes out? It's not a situation where you can cut something like a radish right away, so I'm going to do both. On the other hand, I think it's a very fateful situation where we have to pursue both innovation and innovation at once to support the impeachment trial of President Yoon and restore the dynamics of the party.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: I want you to do well for politics. I don't think I'll be able to do well given the power of the people so far, but in fact, political parties need to change for our Korean politics. Politics is not a place where we can get all out of our way or anything. It's supposed to be very inefficient.

◈Strict management: Can't we have a head-to-head match?

◇Yoo Seung-chan: The head-to-head match is now between me and Chief Eom.

◆ Shin Yul: Please tell us. It's because it's a listening rate research institute anyway, so it's better to keep telling me.

◈Strict management: I think you don't like a head-to-head match.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: So anyway, I'm afraid that not only the economy and everyday politics, but also the economy and everyday life will be ruined. We need to do politics that gives us confidence in this. I think this is something that both parties should pay attention to.

◆ Shin-ryul: According to a report this morning, the Democratic Party, which prosecutors have now filed charges against for impeachment, will clear all members of the State Council. Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun is Pego. Of course, that person is definitely going in. But what happens to Prime Minister Han Deok-soo if he says he's innocent except for him? If he is also acquitted, one of the factors of impeachment will be included.

◈Extreme management: That's right. So I saw the report, too. Although the impeachment trial is important, I think the Constitutional Court should proceed with the Constitutional Court's hearing on acting Han Deok-soo quickly. That way, this is a very important point in the process of normalizing the country. But there's a problem if you leave this and just do the impeachment trial of President Yoon. So, I think the Constitutional Court should finish the impeachment hearing of Han Deok-soo. I'm looking at it like this.

◇Yoo Seung-chan: Han Deok-soo said the Constitutional Court is doing it now. I intend to wait for the Constitutional Court's judgment.

◆Shin Yul: Looking at the article this morning, I thought it wouldn't mean anything if I cleared all of them. The first weekly politics match. That's it for today. I'll bring you two back next Friday. So far, I have been with two political consultants, Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times, and Yoo Seung-chan.